疯狂的Jerrick

Now looking back, my understanding of the storage sector is also correct.
But I didn’t hold onto it,
because there are other sectors that look even more promising.
Gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies are all coming to the fore.
And the narrative of the massive sell pressure around SpaceX has also pushed me to put more of my focus on SpaceX’s stock.
Yes, I’ve also gotten some results.
The rest of the story still needs time to unfold.

Recently, I’ve been doing a live trading challenge from 500U to 1M.
The situation over the past month has been pretty good:
500U-> 74U -> 500U->700U+
Feel free to go watch on my public account.

#SK海力士拟191万亿韩元投建M17工厂

Use funds to verify your logic.

Not just saying it with your mouth, or being a keyboard warrior.
The stockholding experience on SpaceX over these past few days is what truly made it click for me.
Only when you really learn and understand the logic of trading—when you analyze and practice—can you truly hold on to it.
This trade has already been cashed out; the other positions still need ongoing observation.
Today’s holding experience was really great.
Keep it up from here on.

#SpaceX市值达1.613万亿美元超越Meta

Really, if there hadn’t been this big bullish candle, I genuinely think Bitcoin would just have gone to sleep like that.

The stored sectors have pretty much already been played up.

The S&P has recently made a new high.

Gold and silver have already broken out.

Even BTC now seems to be hinting at a breakout.

Looks like the BTC that’s been quiet for so long is finally going to refuse to be outdone.

It’s time to add a bit of color to the crypto world that’s been silent for so long.

What’s interesting is that in the last time there was a decent bounce, BTC took roughly about two months to adjust—this time it’s also just about two months.

If you really take the time to go back and read further, you can find lots of similar two-month adjustment windows.

Anyway, I’ve already summarized this before:

Every year, BTC has a round of bull market.

It’s just the difference between a big bull market and a small one.

For this round, personally I don’t see it going too high—I’m only treating it as a rebound for now.
#BTC Breaks Through the Daily-Level Downtrend Line
#黄金突破1月下行趋势线

Spcx now feels like a new listing stock in a bull market—it’s starting to gather momentum and get ready to move.
Right now, besides being bullish on Spcx, I also bought a bit of silver.
In this account, I don’t hold any positions in silver. But in another account, I do.
There are two reasons to be bullish on silver:
1）Gold has already formed a complete double-bottom structure, and after that it developed into a standard converging pattern breakout. Then it broke through the top of the hourly timeframe trading range, and the trend is very strong.
2）Similarly for silver. Silver and gold are essentially in perfect resonance.
3）Silver already broke through the top of the large-scale (daily timeframe) trading range before gold did, and then gold followed through and also broke out. I entered my long position at the top of the trading range, and I’m currently slightly in profit.

Whether it’s gold breaking out of a large-scale trading range, or Spcx having its massive post-unlocking buy order absorb the sell pressure, the next steps are all aimed at creating room for even larger upside.

Tonight, we’ll see the show from Wall Street’s financial predators.

Let’s wait and see.
#黄金突破1月下行趋势线

The logic behind the recent post shares has been validated one by one.
It also serves as a kind of reward for my learning and cognitive upgrades over these past days.
But for someone like me—a small retail investor who hasn’t deployed heavily in terms of capital yet—
right now, I can only say that I’m still a student in the trading world.
Let’s talk again when my capital size can finally match my standards of aesthetics and judgment.
Let’s talk again when my capital output and my logic output can achieve strong alignment.
Let’s talk again when I’m able to hold on firmly and stay steadfast in the position until the logic is falsified.

As for SPACEX, even if it hasn’t been stretching recently, this is still a long-term bottom.
So today I added to my position again.
Not only did I add a small amount on my public account challenge account,
I also increased my position with low leverage in my sub-account.
My SpaceX orders on my public account are still in a losing position as of now,
but that doesn’t affect my holding experience—this feeling is really good.
Because the price action has always stayed within the range of my own understanding and expectations.
As long as, on the day when a large amount of shares is unlocked, there isn’t overwhelming negative feedback and selling pressure,
then I believe this is currently a medium-term bottom.
The S&P has already hit a new high. After Storage has been played once,
the capital that’s come out is now looking to rotate.
SpaceX’s long-term logic is still intact. The recent earnings report hasn’t released any negative news; if anything, it’s slightly positive.
#Spacex stock unlock

After your logic has been proven correct, truly, your mind becomes very calm.
That’s good.
The only thing that needs to be summarized here as an experience is that, for these newly unblocked stocks, there are actually definite buying points.
For example, tonight’s SpaceX.
After the US stock market stabilizes, and once there are no clear negative signals across the whole market’s large-cap technology stocks,
then SpaceX can, despite the heavy selling pressure at the open, stabilize at the early low by forming a long lower shadow within the first 15 minutes.
That’s actually a definite buying point.
When the bad news is settled, it becomes good news.
Go for it.
#SpaceX9.115亿股周四解禁 $SPCX

Based on the unblocking of SpaceX stock, I wanted to take a look at some historical data from the US market.
You don’t know until you look—turns out there’s actually something to it.
I originally just wanted to check historical data, but I still ended up seeing some reasons for anticipation.:
Facebook (now Meta, FB) — November 14, 2012: a large-scale unblocking day (releasing about 777 million shares). The stock closed up 12.5% that day (rising from the previous day’s close of $19.88 to $22.36), and trading volume increased by about 3x. After that, it continued rising, and by the end of the month it had gained over 40% in total. At the time, the company had strong earnings-report momentum support.
Shake Shack (SHAK) — July 29, 2015: the 180-day lock-up period after the IPO expired that day. The stock jumped about 20%, setting the largest single-day gain since listing at the time. Trading volume was close to doubling. There was no major news from the company that day; the market interpreted it as strong investor confidence in the company’s growth, plus short-covering support.
Snowflake (SNOW) — January 2021: unblocking allowed early investors to sell about 37.9 million shares. The market had expected pressure, but the stock still climbed about 6% that day (after having already risen more than 13% the previous day), continuing the uptrend.
However, historical data can only be a reference and doesn’t constitute one-to-one results.
It’s only a bit of psychological comfort for those who hold positions.
Still, we must respect the market.
Act according to your instincts.
Let profits be left to probability.
#SpaceX9.115亿股周四解禁 $SPCX

SpaceX’s stock unlock is about to come out.
A large number of long-term investors are waiting for the unlock to take effect, and then buy and hold.
There’s also a group of short-selling traders waiting for the event to take profit.
If SpaceX still has another drop, I think it would just be a stop-loss move.
But if it doesn’t drop further, then I think it will get pushed up fairly high.
Of course, having positions versus not having positions is a different mindset, and the expectations are different too.
Sometimes, having expectations that are too high is not a good thing. You can easily miss the sell point, and it’s easy to not be able to hold.
Because you might think it’s not reacting in price right away (not pulling a big bullish candle immediately), which means it’s weak. Then your mindset can be affected, and you may end up not being able to control yourself and deciding to run.
My expectations are clear: once it can’t be pushed down tonight, then you can hold a trend-following long position.
The above is only personal trading log sharing and does not constitute investment advice.#SpaceX9.115亿股周四解禁

If all accounts could keep pushing higher endlessly like this one, then it would be perfect.

But human energy is limited. After I put most of my time and effort into this account, the other accounts can only do some hit-and-run trades—taking short positions and holding small long-term trades.

This account has gone through too many ups and downs. It’s also my oldest account.

I’ve tried a few rounds of public-market live trading challenges before—like “100U to 100000U,” and “earn 100U every day,” etc. They were extremely bad. No system at all. And nobody was paying attention. In the end, all of them ended in failure.

This account has never had too much capital allocated to it. At its highest point, it was only a few tens of thousands of U.

The one thing I want to do most right now is to use a small amount to make a big difference—slowly honing my skills with small capital.

So over the past two years, I’ve been grinding and getting knocked down constantly. But I’d say I’ve also accumulated a lot of experience and lessons.

Lately nobody has been coming into the livestream, but I actually enjoy using livestream time to learn the market’s trading logic with various AIs. And recently I even found that Bit浪浪 has a lot of public private-domain videos—very useful.

I’ve felt like I’ve grown a lot recently. But growth doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll be profitable. As the saying goes, getting it right doesn’t necessarily mean doing it right. Doing it right is what matters most.

And the positive feedback from the account has always kept motivating me to keep moving forward.

Recently, I’ve started my latest live trading challenge again (the live trading is in my Binance public-market account): a 500U challenge for $1M.

What’s interesting is that this 500U was actually pushed in about a month ago. It took me half a month to turn those 500U down to just 76U. Then it took me about another half month to turn the 76U into 532U now (the public-market account can be checked).

Since I was able to crawl back up, and it’s also a bit different from my earlier challenges, on August 3rd when I went live, a guy reminded me and suggested that I do a 1U challenge for $1M. I said, forget it. I think doing it with 1U is too hard (in the early stage it wastes time and feels pointless). I’ll stick with starting from 500U.

Now I basically livestream every day for a few hours. Opening a trade is just a moment, so the livestream is mainly about learning the market logic.

Right now, things are actually very straightforward every day—routine, the same old stuff—but I’m still satisfied. $BTC #SpaceX上市后首份财报跌11%

Let me share a few of my insights on the next encrypted cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH), the storage sector (SNDK, MU, SKHNIX), and the Musk-related theme (SPCX, TSLA):

1. Cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH):
I was in a bearish mode for a while, but now I’m suddenly not as bearish. The main reasons are as follows:
1）On August 3, MicroStrategy did an update on its buy/sell activity. It sold more than 1,300 BTC, but the impact on the market wasn’t very damaging. The market didn’t immediately drop in response. This may be because market expectations have already been “priced in.” So this round of selling coins is just the realization of a bearish factor—the bearish expectation being realized means it won’t truly be bearish anymore.
2）The ETF data has been trending upward these past two days. Institutions bought 211.5M yesterday and 170.1M the day before. These are real, hard-money net inflows, which have absorbed a substantial portion of bearish sentiment.
However, overall, BTC’s market liquidity is still insufficient. The U.S. stock market has been moving extremely wildly recently, but BTC has only followed slightly—it hasn’t been really falling much, and it hasn’t been really rising much either. Overall, it’s just hovering at the 4-hour downtrend line. A few days ago I even thought it might plunge dramatically, but now I no longer have any short positions.

2. Storage sector (SNDK, MU, SKHNIX):
1）At 4:30 a.m. in Beijing time, SanDisk will release its earnings report. Recently, SanDisk has been moving very aggressively alongside U.S. stocks—every day it’s at least up around 10% as a baseline. If the earnings come out above expectations, there could be another wave of a sharp spike.
2）The entire storage sector recently has been following the broader U.S. market. The S&P is hitting new highs—so it really proves the saying: don’t short anything; don’t short the U.S. stock market. In contrast, the A-share market is still in the bottoming-and-rebounding phase.
3）Actually, I’ve always thought storage wouldn’t move up so quickly. Personally, I think there will be a “second dip” (a second test of lows). So recently I’ve mostly been bearish and shorting, but last night I already cut two short positions to stop losses.

3. Musk-related theme (SPCX, TSLA): In the comments.
#SpaceX财报前涨9.8%
$BTC $SPCX $SNDK

The logic is actually quite clear.
The expected market direction from the financial reports.
When a negative turns into reality, it becomes a bullish market.
#SpaceX首个锁定期8月6日到期 $SPCX

Monitored for several weeks, MicroStrategy finally made a move.
Previously there were conference calls saying they would keep selling coins and increase their USD reserves to pay interest.
But for a long time, they never showed any extra action on their website.
Today, they finally updated it.
After three weeks, they have finally sold 1,638 Bitcoins again.
No wonder that in recent days, many large institutions’ ETFs have been constantly dumping.
At the same time, during this period BTC’s uptrend has been extremely weak.
Now it feels like the “stone has finally landed.”
This kind of landing will undoubtedly increase expectations for further selling.
Going forward, it will be hard to look for an upside in BTC.
Teachers, what do you think?
#微策略要卖比特币 $BTC

Drum-Hit Performer Confirms It!
The face is being slapped with a resounding smack-smack—
I watch and it hurts, too,
but I guess
he’s not the one who hurts.
He’s still going to perform.
The best actors in America are the most unreliable ones.#美日2011年来首次联合干预日元 #韩国KOSPI跌3.28% $CL $BTC

I admit, this really is what I did.#KOL

If you wanted to give Trump a title, what would you want it to be?
I hope it’s “the Disband-Drum Performance Artist.””
Truly, there’s no one more suited to stock trading than him.
And no one more suited to trading crypto than him.
In the past, it was people who built their business empires by erecting skyscrapers, developing luxury hotels, and building golf courses—yet in his later years, he not only became president, launched lightning-fast campaigns, and captured other country’s presidents; he also keeps on trading crypto, trading stocks, and drawing K-line charts.
Nearly all risk assets have to pay homage to his remarks.
Now, no matter what the current situation is, and no matter what the president’s approval rating is, his determination to love stock trading will never change.
And his confidence in striking Iran will never change either.
He’s a performance artist—one who only says what will make his K-line charts more favorable, caring nothing about other people’s lives.
No matter the reason, the repeated, triple-checked—eight times—call to halt the attack on Iran is already standard procedure.
The “wolf is coming” story can happen many times; with him, it can be countless times.
He says to stop, and they stop—maybe he just wasn’t ready yet.
His talk always reduces defense spending more than his actions do.
On the one hand, it’s to reduce ammunition consumption and save money for the army.
On the other hand, it’s so he can make money for himself in the stock market.
What a great performance by the disband-drum artist.

Take another look at these institutions. Like you’re running for your life.
Did you hear what kind of rumors in the wind?
Will they come to pick up cheaply anytime soon?
Everyone figure it out for yourselves.
Come to your understanding sooner, get the initiative—make preparations early!

Personal learning notes, not investment advice.

$BTC