The asset is showing relative strength and low correlation with the broader market during drawdowns, which makes it a solid hedging candidate for short exposure when price reaches the POI.
Execution plan: โข You can try a 1/4 position at market โข Place a second 1/4 limit order on the 4H imbalance retest in case MMs / larger players add to positions
My plan for TOTAL3 โ where Iโd be aggressively accumulating spot.
Ideally: Bitcoin goes into a range / sideways, dominance drops, and liquidity rotates into alts. We get the first impulsive moves on altcoins, then BTC gets pushed higher, and alts follow with a full-blown run โ straight to a โto the moonโ phase ๐ #total3
In the new guidelines for MMs and token issuers, Binance outlines the following:
โช๏ธ Issuers must promptly disclose all market maker details to the platform. โช๏ธ Profit-sharing agreements and guaranteed returns with market makers are prohibited. โช๏ธ Token lending agreements must clearly define how the tokens can be used. โช๏ธ Binance promises swift enforcement, including blacklisting market makers who violate the rules. #news
Fresh U.S. PMI data for March just dropped, and the readings came in highly mixed. For the order books, this is like a red flag.
๐ The numbers: โข Manufacturing PMI: Actual 52.4 | Forecast 51.5 | Previous 51.6 ๐ โข Services PMI: Actual 51.1 | Forecast 52.0 | Previous 51.7 ๐
What it means:
A clear economic divergence. On one hand, manufacturing is picking up, which is inflationary and sends a more hawkish signal to the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, the services sector - a massive part of the U.S. economy - is cooling off and missed expectations, which is risk-on supportive.
For algos and HFT desks, this is a perfect setup to shake both sides. Some models will sell the strength in manufacturing, while others will buy the weakness in services.
Market reaction & strategy:
Right now, the U.S. Dollar Index is likely to whipsaw in both directions, and in crypto weโll get that classic choppy, high-volatility price action - stop hunts on both longs and shorts.
Market makers love this environment to farm liquidity.
Stay level-headed and protect your capital. #news #macro
Macro update: the labor market and manufacturing are giving the Fed free hands
A fresh batch of macro data just dropped, and the numbers perfectly reinforce Jerome Powellโs hawkish tone from yesterday. Weโre seeing the classic setup: good news for the economy = bad news for the markets.
๐ Breaking down the raw numbers:
โข Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar): Actual 18.1 | Forecast 8.3 | Previous 16.3 โ manufacturing is showing a strong jump, coming in more than 2x above expectations.
โข Initial Jobless Claims: Actual 205K | Forecast 215K | Previous 213K โ lower than expected. The labor market remains tight and strong.
โข New Home Sales (Jan): Actual 587K | Forecast 722K | Previous 712K โ this is where it hurts. Housing sales dropped off hard. The real estate sector is struggling under high rates.
What it means for us:
This data gives the Federal Reserve a solid argument not to rush into rate cuts. The economy is holding up: unemployment isnโt rising, and manufacturing is picking up.
Yes, housing is cracking, but as long as inflation and the labor market stay hot, the regulator wonโt back off.
For crypto and equities:
Short-term, this is a bearish signal. The US Dollar Index (DXY) gets fuel on this kind of data, pulling liquidity away from risk assets. #macro #news
Looks like a local manipulation with an inefficiency rebalance โ most likely leading to further downside, which can be used to look for short entries.
Geopolitics & Macro: 19 days into the Middle East escalation
The conflict with Iran is still ramping up, draining liquidity from the markets and fueling fresh inflation risks. Hereโs the raw breakdown from less than three weeks of escalation โ and how itโs hitting the US economy:
๐ธ Cash burn rate: The military campaign is costing the US about $1B per day, with the total bill already nearing $24B.
๐ช Scale of the operation: Around 50,000 US troops have been deployed to the Middle East, with over 11,500 combat sorties flown so far.
โฝ๏ธ Fuel shock: Average gasoline prices in the US are up 40% since December โ a direct trigger for future CPI spikes, something the Federal Reserve has been fighting hard to contain.
๐ข Oil dislocation: The price spread between US and Middle East crude has blown out to an extreme 60% gap.
๐ Political risk: On top of all this, impeachment odds for Donald Trump have surged to a record 72%.
๐ P.S. Donald Trump has officially postponed his planned China visit by one month. The market is reading this loud and clear โ no de-escalation expected in the next 30 days. Geopolitical tension and market turbulence arenโt going anywhere. #news #Geopolitics
You can now confidently say that BTC has turned into a local โsafe havenโ during the conflict, outperforming other risk assets and even gold.
Today we broke a new local high at $76k and continued the short squeeze โ the kind we havenโt seen in a while: over the past two days, nearly $1B in shorts got liquidated.
At the same time, weโre seeing some whales ะฐะบัะธะฒะฝะพ accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum, positioning for the long term into the next cycle, while others are already closing out their spec plays and swing trades, locking in profits.
Which also makes sense: if you look at the chart, weโre repeating the previous bear flag and moving almost perfectly in line with the 2022 pattern. If it plays out, the $76k ยฑ level could end up being the local top of this trading range.
What to do now: intraday is a must. If youโre planning to accumulate BTC for the long term, itโs better to wait for a pullback and a cleaner entry โ especially since your first spot buy is already in the $60โ64k range.
Also, itโs a good time to start building a watchlist of strong alts you see potential in for the next cycle. And of course, make sure your stables are working for you while market activity is low โ thatโs key. #BTC
This is exactly why holding above the $70,000 range has been difficult.
A huge amount of liquidity has built up above, all the way up to $80K. The situation is very fragile, and honestly no one in the market knows exactly what happens next.
There are two main scenarios:
1๏ธโฃ They push price toward $80K, sweeping all the buy-side liquidity, and then โ if U.S. markets start to crash โ we could see a broad sell-off across all markets, sending Bitcoin back toward ~$55K.
2๏ธโฃ Or they start selling from current levels, not giving retail traders the chance to build short positions, and simply bleed the market down slowly.
For now โ we watch and wait.
The global situation keeps escalating, and the news flow is getting worse day by day, with no clear relief in sight.
Since itโs the weekend, the market is relatively quiet. The real volatility carousel will likely start on Monday, especially with a macro-heavy week ahead. #BTC #liquidity
This move is within expectations. $72,000 is the key breakout level.
If $72K gets reclaimed and we see acceptance above it, the market could push higher. But until that level is broken, the scenario remains short-biased.
If we do break above, Iโll close part of my short at breakeven and look to re-enter around $75K.
In any case, if Iโm seeing a global short setup in the U.S. equities market, crypto wonโt be able to rally during a strong sell-off in stocks.
**Bitcoin would likely follow the downside as well. #BTC #ETH
$SOL Update: same picture as Bitcoin and Ethereum โ order books above are thin, only scraps of liquidity left, while a ton of longs have piled in. #solana #liquidity #setup
$ETH : funding is positive across the market (longs are overcrowded / overheated). Bid-side liquidity below is ~10x larger, while liquidity above is thin.
Anyone aping into longs here doesnโt understand how those positions are about to get wiped out. #ETH #liquidity #setup