Dan Held

#USRetailSalesMissForecast 📉 US Retail Sales Miss Forecast: What the Flat December Print Means for the Economy The numbers are in, and they’re underwhelming. According to newly released data from the US Census Bureau, December retail sales came in at 0.0% month-over-month—a stark miss against the 0.4% forecast and a sharp deceleration from November’s 0.6% gain . Year-over-year growth slowed to 2.4%, the weakest pace since October 2024 . 🔍 Where the Weakness Showed Up The headline stagnation wasn’t broad-based—it was concentrated. Sectors most exposed to tariff-related price increases took the hardest hits: · Furniture & home furnishings: -0.9% · Miscellaneous store retailers: -0.9% · Clothing & accessories: -0.7% · Electronics & appliances: Notable declines · Motor vehicles & parts: Contraction The few bright spots? Building materials and garden equipment rose 1.2%, and gasoline stations saw gains largely due to price, not volume . ⚠️ Why This Matters This isn’t just a holiday hangover. Economists point to a convergence of structural pressures: Tariff fatigue is now visible in the data. Consumers pulled back on exactly the categories—furniture, apparel, vehicles—that faced tariff-driven price hikes in 2025 . The savings cushion is gone. The personal saving rate has plunged to 3.5%, down from its pandemic peak of 31.8% in April 2020. Consumers are running on fumes . The labor market is cooling. Employers have averaged just 28,000 jobs per month since December—a far cry from the 400,000/month pace of the post-COVID hiring boom . 📊 Market Reaction: Mixed, Not Panicked Markets took the news in stride—but with clear divergence: · Dow Jones: +0.1% (fresh record high) · S&P 500: -0.33% · Nasdaq: -0.56% The takeaway? Investors are rotating, not fleeing. Cyclical and tech names sold off; defensives held. Analysts describe a “two-speed” economy where AI investment remains robust but doesn’t necessarily translate to widespread job creation or broad-based consumption .