海盗鸭

Coinbase’s data this quarter is a bit surreal—its global crypto spot trading market share hit 10.3%, a new all-time high, yet the earnings report shows a third consecutive quarter of losses. A new peak in market share and ongoing losses at the same time—that’s the real contradiction.

The share increase suggests both users and trading volume are moving toward it, especially after retail users are nearly all concentrated there; what remains are institutions and large accounts that are more willing to choose compliant platforms. But what do the losses mean? Its cost structure is still too heavy. Trading fees have been battered by a price war and falling fee rates, so you can’t generate profit just by stacking up more volume.

This is actually a common problem across centralized exchanges: in a bull market they earn from fees; in a bear market they burn money to grab market share. Once trading activity slows down, the advantage of scale turns into a burden of scale. $COINB ’s current valuation looks more like a bet that it can build up stable revenue streams like subscriptions and custody, rather than continuing to live off market activity.

Market share is the face-saving part; profitability is the real substance. This quarter delivered only the former.

#美股财报 #Crypto Exchange

Strategy Q2 suffers a net loss of 8.2 billion yuan; in the same report, Coinbase revenue also paid down 19%—and these two key crypto-market barometers both weakened. But if you look closely, there’s a contradiction: with losses like this, it not only didn’t reduce its BTC holdings, but instead continued to add more, while also cutting down that pile of convertible bonds. Most of the accounting loss on the books is basically mark-to-market driven by BTC price volatility, not a real cash outflow. The logic behind Saylor’s approach hasn’t changed at all—if anything, it even de-leveraged by taking the opportunity to borrow back and recycle capital. The market may be easily spooked by the “8.2 billion” figure, but no one talks about the fact that the debt structure has become healthier. Coinbase revenue declining is the more worrying signal, because it reflects a drop-off in retail trading activity, which directly affects overall spot trading volume. $MSTRB and $COINB are telling two different stories—don’t mix them together.

#Bitcoin

The latest earnings reports from Apple and Amazon have made the last day of July quite lively. As soon as Amazon’s cloud-business data came out after the close, its stock jumped. Apple, on the other hand, was weighed down by service revenue and concerns about chip shortages. With these two giants reporting on the same day, their stock movements completely split—this really reflects the market’s current mindset: people are no longer focused on who is the "tech leader." Instead, they only care whether next quarter’s growth can be delivered.

Amazon is using AWS to rewrite the story of AI compute power. When Apple’s service growth rate slowed, the market immediately started casting doubt. Previously, Apple benefited from a premium driven by a dual engine of hardware plus services. Now hardware is being dragged down by shortages, and services also show signs of topping out—so the valuation can’t hold up at its old level.

My view is that in the short term $AAPLB is facing even more pressure, and any rebound will depend on whether the September new iPhone models can help make up for the volume. $AMZNB has been more like delivering part of the expectations; however, whether high cloud growth can be sustained is still a test for next quarter. Two earnings reports on the same day, two different outcomes—definitely worth watching in comparison.

#苹果芯片短缺拖累销售预期 #US stock earnings report

Bitcoin’s bounce this time came pretty directly—after Trump announced the cancellation of strikes on Iran, he also hinted that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen soon, and that they may negotiate an agreement; BTC reacted and jumped higher. When geopolitical risk eases, the seesaw between safe havens and risk assets moves immediately.

What’s interesting is that this round of Bitcoin is moving along the “risk assets” leg, not the “digital gold” one. With the war clouds lifting, market risk appetite rebounds, and money flows back into growth and other high-volatility assets—BTC benefits right along with it. This suggests that, for this phase, its pricing is more tied to liquidity and sentiment, and it moves more in tandem with the Nasdaq than with gold.

But a rebound driven by a single headline also tends to be highly reflexive—one remark from Trump can lift it, and the next could just as easily flip and knock it down. Whether Hormuz actually opens, and whether negotiations can succeed, are still variables. $BTC short-term jumping up and down with geopolitical news is completely normal. Don’t treat the headline as a trend reversal—managing your position is more important than trying to guess the direction.

#比特币 #geopolitics

Musk cools down the rumors of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX, and at the same time SpaceX’s stock hits a new low. This timing is worth noting—the market was already trading on the imagination of a “merger between the two.” By pouring cold water on it, he effectively removes the biggest catalyst first. A new low isn’t surprising; missing expectations is what hurts the most. For Tesla, it may not necessarily be a bad thing—without the distraction of capital operations related to a merger, it can return to its fundamentals, which feels cleaner. A rally built purely on expectations is already fragile. $SPCXB short-term downward pressure is unavoidable; $TSLAB what you should still focus on are deliveries and gross margin—don’t let the merger story throw off your rhythm.
#US stock earnings reports

Schumer, along with several senators, delivered a message to Tim Cook, warning Apple not to use China’s storage chips, saying, "That would be a mistake." On the surface it’s political pressure; underneath it’s supply-chain positioning—Apple is being forced to give up Yangtze Memory, and orders can only be redirected back to non-Chinese manufacturers like Micron and SK hynix. For Apple it means rising costs, but for the original storage manufacturers it’s actually a positive. Political shifts can now directly rewrite the procurement lists of major giants; this kind of non-market factor is becoming harder to ignore. $AAPLB adds another layer of uncertainty in the short term, and the logic behind storage fabs like $MUB benefiting from redirected orders is worth watching—whoever can take the orders stands to benefit.
#AI chip

An Apple day “evaporates” $359 billion in market value—put that number on the head of any company and it’s catastrophic. Applied to Apple, it also shows that the market’s patience with it is thinning. It isn’t that Apple has done some shocking new wrong; rather, the growth guidance it offers can’t justify the current valuation. Once a trillion-dollar giant is judged to have “growth momentum blunted,” capital pulls out with zero mercy. Compared with the company next door—Amazon, which surged by its cloud business—what Apple is missing is precisely a new story powerful enough to get the market excited again. Just relying on upgrades and buybacks isn’t enough to feed expectations. $AAPLB Short-term sentiment is indeed weak; if you want to stop the slide, you’ll need to see whether the services business and new products can pick up the narrative.
#Apple chip shortage drags on sales outlook

Amazon and Apple released their earnings in the same batch: one surged wildly and the other plunged wildly. This kind of divergence is rare so far this year. Amazon managed to spark sentiment by accelerating its AWS cloud business, while Apple’s hardware narrative here was met with cold water. Put together, it’s quite interesting—the market is clearly charging a premium for the "AI cloud incremental" and discounting the "mature hardware cycle." As two trillion-dollar giants, their valuation logic has already split into two different paths. In the short term, it’s a trend for capital to flow toward cloud and computing power. For Apple to turn it around, it needs to come up with a new growth story—buybacks alone won’t be enough. $AMZNB has plenty of confidence leading the way, and $AAPLB will have to see whether the service business can hold up in the next few quarters.
#US stock earnings

Amazon has run into trouble these past couple of days. Consumers have collectively sued it, alleging that seafood promotions on its platform labeled “sustainably caught” are misleading. It sounds like a small lawsuit, but the real damage from false advertising claims using “sustainability/ESG” tags has never been the compensation amount—it’s the compliance cost. Once a precedent holds, third-party sellers’ product descriptions across the board would have to be reviewed again, effectively adding friction to this traffic-traffic machine. In the short term, it basically has no impact on the stock price of $AMZNB ; the market doesn’t care about this kind of noise. Cloud and advertising are the valuation anchors. But it’s worth adding to the watchlist: over the past few years, regulators in the US and Europe have clearly tightened scrutiny of “greenwashing,” calling out industries from fashion to food. Platform e-commerce will eventually be next. What really matters is whether follow-up developments will bring in the FTC—that would be the tipping point where a civil squabble of words escalates into a systemic risk. It’s too early to make a call now—so just record it for the time being.

SpaceX’s second-quarter report hasn’t come out yet, but the market is already rushing to debate whether to enter early. My view is actually to hold your hand—historically, in the first one or two quarters after these kinds of mega unicorns open trading, volatility is wildly out of control, and retail investors are often the bag-holders. The reason is simple: early on, there’s no stable performance anchor—valuation is propped up entirely by stories and sentiment. One Starship test-flight headline can send it soaring, then crashing just as fast. What’s truly worth waiting for is when it shows a continuous cash-flow curve over two or three consecutive quarters, so you can figure out exactly how much Starlink contributes and how the launch business’s gross margin is trending. Until then, $SPCXB is more like a sentiment lottery ticket than an investment target. If you want to participate, that’s fine—keep the position small and treat it like an option play; don’t make it your core holding. Patience is worth more than any technical analysis in the early days of a new stock listing.

One week before the earnings report—$SPCXB closed again at a new low. The whole week’s trading was choppy and uneven. It’s pretty clear that some capital is pulling out ahead of the earnings release. I’ve seen this kind of move many times—not because the fundamentals have collapsed, but because the market has no confidence in “whether expectations will be met.” They’d rather run first. For a heavy-asset, heavily R&D-intensive stock like SpaceX, the biggest fear is that the cash flow and launch schedule in the earnings report won’t line up with expectations. If Starlink’s revenue growth rate falls short of what the market is imagining, it will kill the valuation premium. Conversely, dropping back to the lows before the earnings report also means some of the pessimism has already been “priced in.” As long as the actual numbers aren’t too ugly, it’s easier for an oversold rebound to happen. So this week, don’t rush to catch the falling knife—wait until the earnings report lands and then act based on the real data. At this point, is it a trap made of sentiment, or a value trap? We’ll know only when the cards are revealed.

After Amazon received about $600 million in tariff tax refunds, it announced that it would refund some sellers the tariff costs that were overpaid previously. Don’t underestimate this move—$600 million isn’t a subsidy; it’s money that is flowing back after miscalculations or overpayments. This shows that the earlier wave of tariff costs was truly borne by the supply chain. Amazon’s willingness to proactively refund, on the one hand, comes from pressure from regulators and seller complaints, and on the other hand, it also aims to stabilize third-party sellers’ confidence—after all, most of the platform’s GMV depends on them. Tariffs are a double-edged sword for Amazon: they raise the cost of Amazon’s own inventory, but if competitors can’t bear the burden, Amazon can end up pushing out smaller and mid-sized rivals. This refund looks more like an effort to reconcile the accounts and repair seller relationships. $AMZNB In the short term, the $600 million is unlikely to cause big swings; what’s really worth watching is where tariff policy goes next—that’s the key variable determining its profit margins.
#US stock earnings reports

An analyst has put forward a counterintuitive perspective: Apple’s public warning about a memory shortage this time—could it instead be a bottoming signal for momentum-driven memory chip stocks? The logic is quite interesting. When downstream industry leaders start crying out about shortages, it often means the point of tightest supply and demand has already been reached. And this tightness translates into real pricing power for upstream manufacturers. The memory sector is a typical strong-cycle industry—when it falls, it can be brutal, and when it rises, it’s equally decisive. The key is confirmation of the turning point. Apple’s warning, to a certain extent, serves as cross-validation from the demand side. Of course, “the bottom” is never something you dare to call until afterward. It’s still too early to claim it’s time to go bargain hunting, but the marginal changes in supply and demand are definitely worth starting to watch. $MUB such stocks’ recent strength is definitely not happenstance; $AAPLB ’s comments, in fact, provide a fundamental explanation for them.
#AI芯片 # Apple chip shortage drags sales forecast

SanDisk fell 45% in a single month—this decline is brutal even by the standards of the storage sector. So people started asking: should you switch from SanDisk to Micron or SK hynix? Behind this question is a split within the storage industry. Even in the same price-increase cycle, the product mix differs, and the extent of who benefits can be wildly different. The more exposure a company has to enterprise-level products and HBM, the more it tends to capitalize on the AI demand boom; whereas those focused more on consumer-grade products and traditional NAND are more likely to be hit first when demand weakens. SanDisk’s sharp drop may not necessarily be all bad—it depends on whether it was oversold by the market or whether the fundamentals genuinely deteriorated. Deep-drawdown targets like $SNDKB are suitable for contrarian investors to research, but before switching positions to $MUB , you need to figure out exactly what you’re betting on: a reversal in the cycle or a stock-specific rebound. The odds are completely different for these two scenarios.
#AI芯片 #US stock earnings report

Microsoft’s one-day market value surged by $450 billion—this number is even larger than the total market value of the entire Turkish stock market. It’s hard to believe, but it really happened: in a single day, the equivalent of a mid-sized country’s assets was effectively “grown.” The catalyst was that its Azure cloud business’ annualized revenue has officially crossed the $100 billion threshold. AI demand has pushed cloud computing back to the front as a growth engine again. What I’m focusing on isn’t how much the stock jumped, but the quality behind that $100 billion: it suggests that Microsoft has started to monetize investments like Copilot and OpenAI’s compute capacity, moving beyond pure “burn money to tell a story.” Compared with Amazon AWS and Google Cloud, Microsoft is clearly ahead in this cycle. The stock price ran up too fast in the short term—so a pullback is normal. But on the main storyline of cloud + AI, $MSFTB ’s certainty at the moment is the most solid among the three giants. Jumps of this magnitude in a single day often signal that capital is repricing an industry.

Before Palantir’s earnings, the technical analysis data from Barchart was brought up and discussed, making the market’s disagreement on PLTR clear: on one side, commercial orders and government contracts keep ramping up; on the other, the valuation is already absurdly expensive, with a sales-price ratio so high it’s hard to justify buying in. The most awkward part for this company is that the fundamentals are genuinely strong, but the price has already brought forward and discounted growth from several quarters. So every earnings report turns into a high-risk moment of “good news being realized and then followed by a pullback.” No matter how pretty the results look, if the guidance doesn’t beat expectations, the stock can still get smashed. What you should most avoid ahead of an earnings season for this kind of stock is chasing higher prices. $PLTRB I won’t gamble on direction, but I’ll keep my position size within a range that can withstand big post-trading volatility. After all, it’s not unusual for it to swing by double digits after hours.
#US stock earnings

After Meta’s earnings report, the stock price plunged, and the market immediately pointed the finger at Zuckerberg and his unstoppable AI “money-burning machine”—capital expenditure guidance has been raised again and again, while cash flow is being eaten away in plain sight. This script was actually played out once two years ago: back then they poured money into the metaverse; Reality Labs lost over ten billion a year, and the stock price was pressed down in the same way. Later, it turned around by recovering through its advertising business. The problem this time is different: AI compute investment doesn’t have the same “we can cut it anytime” room as the metaverse. Once you stop, it’s basically admitting defeat and handing over the moat. So what the market is afraid of isn’t just spending—it’s not seeing a timeline for when that spending will translate into monetization. The core advertising business remains stable, and that’s the biggest difference versus pure cash-burning companies. In the past, panicked pullbacks like $METAB have sometimes turned out to be good entry points—but the prerequisite is that you believe it can wrap up the story convincingly again the way it did last time.
#美股财报 #AI chips

Microsoft has recently aggressively pushed its security business toward the AI direction. The Security Copilot has started to be integrated into threat detection, and in management conference calls, leaders singled out cybersecurity as a growth point to be discussed separately. This area used to be overlooked by the market, but the logic is fairly solid—once enterprises move to the cloud and adopt Copilot, security becomes an indispensable add-on, and average deal sizes can be pushed upward accordingly. Now, annualized security revenue has already surpassed $20 billion, with growth outpacing overall cloud. My view is that the market’s valuation of $MSFTB is mainly betting on Azure and OpenAI; this security line has not yet been fully priced in and functions as a hidden option tucked within the financial reports. Of course, the AI narrative as a whole is currently running hot—short term, you can’t avoid tracking market fluctuations—but if you’re looking for a less crowded rationale to add exposure, cybersecurity is more tangible than pure AI concepts. It’s worth keeping an eye on the gross margin changes in this area over the next few quarters.

#美股财报 #AI chips

Berkshire Hathaway now sits on $397 billion in cash. In theory, it could buy almost any company in the S&P 500—and still it remains on the sidelines, waiting for a better price. The sheer magnitude of that number is itself the loudest warning bell: one of Buffett’s lifelong beliefs is that when others are greedy, he is fearful. Now he would rather hold a huge pile of cash to earn Treasury interest than make a move, which suggests that in his view there are no bargains anywhere in the market. Conversely, retail investors are still chasing high-priced AI stocks—an irony that’s hard to miss. I’m not saying you should liquidate everything, but when even the best “waiters” are waiting, the value-for-money at $SPYB is definitely worth weighing. Historically, when Berkshire’s cash allocation hits a peak, it often coincides with a period when market valuations are relatively expensive. It may not fall immediately, but the upside potential gets squeezed. If you’re holding positions, you’d better keep your own scale in mind.

#US stock earnings reports

This month’s operations are a bit unusual: STRC preferred dividends are maintained at 12% with no change. According to Saylor’s team’s usual playbook, as long as the STRC price clearly falls below par value, they would raise the dividend to push the price back up. But this time it dropped and they held it—no increase. The tempo has changed. What’s behind it could be that funding costs are starting to show pressure, or they want to leave room for later. $MSTRB is essentially a leveraged Bitcoin container, and these preferred shares are the ammunition for it to raise funds to buy Bitcoin. Tweaks to dividend policy often reveal the company’s real situation earlier than the stock price. So this signal is worth watching—if even propping up the price starts to hesitate, it means the high-interest “keep-alive” strategy is getting more expensive. During this Bitcoin range-bound phase, when $BTC isn’t doing well, this kind of leveraged structure faces the most pressure. Holders shouldn’t just watch the coin price—also pay attention to its funding side.

#比特币 #US stock earnings report