CryptoQuant Quicktake

While Bitcoin’s price bled from $124K to $67K, the Binance Futures‑to‑Spot ratio quietly painted a different picture – especially for altcoins.

By late January, the ratio for ETH, XRP, and Solana had collapsed to multi‑month lows, reflecting fear and spot‑driven selling. But since February began, something shifted. ETH’s ratio climbed from 3.7 to 7.5, breaking decisively above its 7‑day moving average. XRP followed, surging from 2.6 to 4.6. Solana nearly doubled. Even Bitcoin’s ratio recovered, yet altcoins led the charge – their upside momentum in futures activity now outrunning BTC’s.

This isn’t random noise. A rising futures/spot ratio from depressed levels signals returning speculative appetite. Traders aren’t just hedging; they’re positioning. The fact that altcoins are showing stronger relative recovery in this metric suggests capital is rotating back into risk assets before price confirms it.

History echoes: similar bottoms in this ratio preceded the Q1 2024 and Q4 2025 rallies. Today’s setup isn’t euphoria – it’s quiet accumulation in derivatives markets. Short‑term pain is visible, but the futures tape is already discounting a turnaround.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Bitcoin’s slide from $124K to $67K has shaken markets, but on-chain data reveals a split screen: short-term holders are panic‑selling while long‑term believers barely flinch. This isn’t 2022.

At the peak last October, short‑term holders were euphoric – they sent over $8.3 billion in profits to exchanges in a single week. Now the mood has flipped. By mid‑February, loss‑making STH inflows surged to $399 million on February 11, with some days seeing 99% of their deposits underwater. It’s classic capitulation, but the dollar amounts are actually smaller than the $1.5 billion loss day in August 2024. Fear is real, yet less extreme than previous sell‑offs.

Long‑term holders tell a different story. Even as prices tumbled, LTH inflows remained a fraction of STH volume, and most coins arrived in profit. On February 11, when STH dumped $399 million at a loss, LTH sent only $23.8 million in losses – a drop in the ocean. Contrast this with early 2024, when LTH absorbed over $225 million in losses during a single capitulation. Today, they’re sitting tight.

This divergence matters. In 2022, long‑term holders bled red for months. This time, they’re refusing to sell at a loss. Short‑term panic is loud, but the quiet conviction of those who’ve weathered cycles suggests the floor may be closer than the fear implies.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Executive Summary:

On-chain data reveals that the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of USD Coin (ERC-20) active addresses has reached a new all-time high of 186,000. This spike in network utility is inversely correlated with the current price action of major assets.

Market Context & Analysis:

This record-breaking activity coincides with a severe correction in the crypto market. Bitcoin has retraced approximately 45%, falling from its $125,000 peak in October 2025 to $68,000 as of February 2026.

1. Flight to Safety (Risk-Off):

The surge in active addresses indicates classic “risk-off” behavior. Investors are aggressively swapping volatile assets (BTC, altcoins) into stablecoins to preserve capital. The specific preference for USDC often signals activity from institutional players and sophisticated DeFi users who prioritize transparency and regulatory safety during market turbulence.

2. Accumulating “Dry Powder”:

While the price drop signals fear, the on-chain data offers a silver lining. Liquidity is not exiting the ecosystem to fiat; it is merely being “parked” on the Ethereum network. This high volume of active addresses represents a massive accumulation of “dry powder”—purchasing power that remains on-chain.

Conclusion:

The divergence between falling prices and rising stablecoin activity suggests we are in a period of capitulation. However, history suggests that high stablecoin accumulation during price bottoms often precedes a reversal. The $68,000 level is effectively being tested by capital that is waiting on the sidelines, ready to re-enter the market once stability returns.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin market sentiment is showing early signs of stabilization, and Binance’s 7-day Net Taker Flow reflects that shift when viewed in proper macro context. Crypto markets move in cycles. During bearish phases, aggressive sell orders dominate and net taker flow turns deeply negative as risk appetite contracts. As selling pressure exhausts, that imbalance begins to compress before buyers gradually regain control.

After reaching nearly -$4.9B in cumulative net selling in early February, Binance’s 7-day taker flow has steadily recovered and flipped positive to around +$0.32B. The sentiment ratio has moved from roughly -3% back into positive territory, signaling a clear decline in sell-side aggression. Daily sell dominance has weakened, while taker buy volume is increasingly absorbing liquidity as Bitcoin stabilizes around the mid-$60K range.

Context is essential. When compared with aggregated exchange data, the recovery is not isolated, but Binance shows a stronger shift in net buying pressure than peers. This suggests recent outflows were part of broader crypto market cyclicality rather than venue-specific stress, with directional positioning concentrating where liquidity depth is highest.

From a market structure perspective, sustained negative net taker flow often aligns with late-stage distribution. The recent compression in cumulative sell volume and transition back to positive flow points to early-stage trend stabilization. Across multiple Bitcoin cycles, exchanges demonstrating relative flow stability tend to normalize first as sentiment improves. Current data supports a narrative of declining selling pressure and strengthening spot-driven demand within the broader digital asset market cycle.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Data from the Bitcoin Halving Cycle Tracker on Binance shows that the market has currently reached approximately 662 days after the halving, a stage that historically falls around the midpoint of the cycle. This indicates that the market has moved beyond the initial post-halving surge and has begun entering a phase of balance and gradual structural building.

The Cycle Position indicator records a reading of approximately 0.453, suggesting that the cycle has not yet reached its final stages and remains within the mid-phase. At the same time, the Growth Ratio stands at around 1.055, reflecting positive but moderate growth, far from excessive expansion.

Meanwhile, the Z-Score, at approximately -1.64, indicates that the market is trading below its statistical average. This condition is often observed during consolidation or correction phases, where selling pressure tends to be relatively elevated.

Overall, these readings suggest that the market is undergoing a phase of rebalancing and accumulation within the current cycle, with the broader cyclical structure remaining intact. Additionally, the decline in relative volatility and the stability of the 30-day moving average support the idea that the market is building a new structural base. Historically, such phases often precede larger expansionary moves as momentum gradually improves and liquidity returns to the market.

Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI) has now dropped into the low 0.2 range.

Historically, this level aligns more closely with early bear market phases (2018, 2022) rather than mid-cycle corrections.

In October, BCMI was holding around 0.5 — a neutral equilibrium zone.

Today, that structure has clearly broken down.

What changed?

The 0.5 mid-cycle equilibrium failed to hold

No strong rebound from 0.3

Direct continuation toward 0.2 without expansion reset

This behavior differs from past mid-cycle cooling phases.

Instead, it resembles a risk-off regime transition.

Historical Context

Previous cycle bottoms formed when BCMI reached:

~0.10–0.15 in 2019

~0.15 in 2022–2023

Current levels remain above historical capitulation zones.

This suggests that while the market may already be in a bearish structure,

full capitulation conditions have not yet appeared.

Structural Interpretation

BCMI aggregates valuation (MVRV), profitability (NUPL), spending behavior (SOPR), and sentiment.

A move into the low 0.2s reflects:

Shrinking unrealized profits

Increasing realized losses

Sentiment deterioration

Valuation compression underway

However, extreme panic territory (0.1 zone) has not yet been reached.

Conclusion

The data increasingly supports a bear market transition scenario, not a simple correction.

Unless BCMI stabilizes and reclaims 0.4–0.5,

the probability favors continued structural weakness.

From a cycle perspective,

true bottom conditions may still be ahead.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

• LTH NUPL reached 0.39 during the latest market drop.

• The last time that long-term holders saw a similar low level of unrealized profit after an ATH was in May 2022.

• Indicator: LTH NUPL (by Axel Adler Jr., CQ Verified Author).

Written by _OnChain

• STH NUPL reached -0.5 during the latest market drop.

• The last time that short-term holders recorded a similar level of unrealized losses after an ATH was in June 2022.

Written by _OnChain

Bitcoin’s temporary break below $60,000 triggered a wave of nervousness across the market, including among whales.

Contrary to a common belief, these large holders do not systematically represent a form of rational and patient smart money. They also react to market shocks, sometimes opportunistically, sometimes under pressure.

As shown by the chart tracking their inflows to Binance, a platform often favored for large transactions due to its deep liquidity, spikes in inflows tend to appear both during euphoric phases and during market lows.

The current situation clearly reflects this dynamic.

As BTC fell from $95,000 to $60,000, the average monthly inflows of BTC to Binance from whales increased sharply.

They rose from around 1,000 BTC to nearly 3,000 BTC, with a notable spike of roughly 12,000 BTC on February 6 alone. This type of movement signals an intensification of transfers to exchanges at a time of strong price stress.

Since February 1, seven trading days have recorded more than 5,000 BTC in daily inflows from this group of investors. This unusual frequency highlights that some whales remain highly sensitive to rapid market swings and are actively adjusting their positions.

Rising inflows typically signal increasing selling pressure, which is especially concerning in an environment where overall market liquidity is tightening. Given the scale of the volumes they move, whales can abruptly influence price dynamics. Monitoring their flows is therefore essential to anticipate volatility phases and better understand the forces shaping the market.

Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin is going through a period of sharp volatility, highlighting the fragility of current market sentiment. Between February 5 and 6, the asset staged an impressive 17% rally, jumping from $60K to the $70K resistance in less than 24 hours. However, the inability to sustain this level brought the price back to the $66K region today. This “whipsaw” movement reinforces the importance of adaptive metrics to distinguish market noise from structural reversals. To eliminate uncertainty and clarify whether we are already at a market inflection point or not, let’s analyze the metrics of BTC: MVRV Adaptive Z-Score (365-Day Window).

INTERPRETING THE METRICS

◾ MVRV: < -3.0 | Accumulation → Seller exhaustion zone and strong buying opportunity.

◾ MVRV: 0.0 to -3.0 | Capitulation → Sharp correction; the market tests support levels.

◾ Adaptive Z-Score Characteristics: The Z-Score, which at the time of this post stands at -2.70, isolates annual volatility, revealing the severity of the deviation.

◾ 30-Day SMA → Shows the trend floating above the histogram bars, confirming that selling pressure still dominates in the short term.

CONCLUSION

The current Z-Score reading of -2.70 proves that, despite the nominal price of $66K, Bitcoin remains persistently in the capitulation zone. The indicator suggests that we are approaching the historical accumulation phase. The statistical deviation of the Z-Score screams opportunity, signaling that the bottom of this downtrend is being forged right now.

Written by GugaOnChain

📰 Daily Market Update:

Recent on-chain and exchange data are starting to paint a more cautious picture for Bitcoin price

📊 [BTC] Binance Inflows by Trader Size

This chart tracks the 7-day avg daily BTC inflows into Binance, segmented by trader size (Retail, Mid-size, and Whales).

🔬 Key Observation

📈 On Feb 8, the 7-day avg whale inflow exceeded 1,970 BTC.

📈 This is significantly higher than the previous three major inflow events during October, November, and December, where inflows barely crossed 400 BTC.

⏲️ Importantly, those earlier inflow events coincided with a local market top, after Bitcoin reached nearly $124,000 in mid-October, followed by a sustained price correction.

📊 USDT: Total Mint and Burn on Tron / Ethereum

This chart shows the total USDT minting and burning activity across (TRC20) and (ERC20) networks.

Quick reminder:

💰 Mint = new USDT created → adds liquidity (generally bullish)

🔥 Burn = USDT destroyed → removes liquidity (generally bearish)

🔬 Key Observation

🔥 On Feb 9, a massive $3.5B USDT burn on Ethereum was recorded.

🔥 On January 20, $3B worth of USDT was burned on Ethereum, which was followed by BTC drop from over $90k to under $67k by February 6.

💸 Such large burns signal liquidity leaving the system, often adding downside pressure.

📊 Whales Screener

This model tracks netflows of BTC, ETH, and stablecoins across 100+ whale wallets.

📈 On Feb 4, 5, and 7, sharp spikes in BTC net inflows to spot exchanges were observed (orange arrows).

📈 Each day saw inflows between $650M → $850M.

Consistent whale deposits of this scale usually reflect distribution behavior.

🧠 Final Conclusion

⏲️ The alignment of whale inflows to spot CEX, USDT burn event, and repeated whale netflows points to a cautious market.

Whales appear to be reducing exposure, while stablecoin liquidity is leaving the system. Historically, this combination has not been bullish—it often signals profit‑taking and lower risk appetite.

Written by Amr Taha

The Bitcoin market is in a bearish correction phase, with downside pressure conditionally dominant. The central issue is not price forecasting, but whether current miner stress represents late-stage capitulation or a structural adjustment within the cycle.

Miners validate transactions and secure the network, earning block subsidies and transaction fees. Their operations are capital-intensive, with high fixed costs such as electricity and hardware depreciation. As a result, profitability is highly sensitive to price and network demand.

The Daily Miner Revenue and Network Hashrate chart shows revenue declining alongside price, while hashrate remains elevated. This indicates that margins are compressed, yet large-scale shutdowns have not occurred. Network security remains intact, suggesting the system has not entered a full capitulation phase.

However, sustained revenue weakness may force miners to liquidate BTC holdings to maintain cash flow. Selling inventory to fund operations is economically rational under margin pressure and can add short-term supply, increasing volatility.

The Revenue Breakdown chart shows strong dependence on block subsidies, with fees subdued. Historically, rising fees signal stronger on-chain demand. Current fee weakness suggests a demand-driven recovery has not yet materialized.

At present, revenue stress with stable hashrate points to adjustment rather than full capitulation. If hashrate declines with continued revenue compression, structural weakness may extend. If fees recover and hashrate stabilizes, this view should be reassessed.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Bitcoin’s price has dropped sharply to the 66.5K region. Meanwhile, the funding rate is at -0.0012 and even lower, with occasional sharp negative spikes. This indicates that the market is aggressively positioned on the short side. When funding is negative, it means short positions are paying longs in other words, there is a heavy short concentration in the market.

Psychologically, this shows that investors believe the downtrend will continue. The market has shifted into fear and defensive mode. Leveraged short positions are accumulating.

When negative funding and a sharp price decline occur together, it often sets the stage for a potential short squeeze. If selling momentum weakens, even a small wave of short liquidations could be triggered. Trapped shorts eventually have to close their positions. This kind of reaction could potentially come from the $58,000 support level.

Since Binance has the highest derivatives volume, a significant portion of the leveraged positions that truly move the price are opened there. That’s why it’s important to pay attention to this chart. Binance is the backbone of the crypto market, and imbalances formed there often put pressure on price action.

Written by PelinayPA

The Ethereum market has recently experienced a prolonged period of significant distress, representing the most sustained liquidation event since June 2021.

On February 6, 2026, data from CryptoQuant indicated that the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Long Liquidations on Binance peaked at 9,000 ETH. It is important to highlight that because this is a 7-day average, the data reflects not an isolated flash crash, but rather a persistent, multi-day cascade of forced liquidations.

Key Observations:

Sustained Pressure: As Ethereum's price declined from the $3,000 level to the $2,000 range, long positions were not eliminated in a single event. Instead, traders endured a week-long sequence of ongoing margin calls.

Historical Context: This degree of sustained liquidation activity exceeds that of the major capitulation events observed during the 2022 bear market. This suggests a comprehensive reset of leverage within the derivatives market.

Implication:

This metric confirms that the market has undergone a substantial clearing of leveraged positions over the past week. Historically, such persistently high liquidation averages can indicate that seller exhaustion may be approaching, as weaker hands have been progressively removed from the market over several consecutive days.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Funding Rates at -0.006. Shorts paying longs while BTC sits around $68K. Derivatives market heavily bearish. But that's often when bases form.

📊 What This Measures

Funding shows who's paying whom in perpetuals. Negative means shorts paying longs. Bearish positioning dominates.

When funding stays negative for extended periods, the market is crowded short. Traders paying a premium to bet on downside. That's conviction, but also exposure.

Crowded positioning tends to unwind. The question is always timing.

🔍 What the Chart Shows

This is the kind of negative funding that typically appears during bottoming phases. Not because shorts are wrong, but because extended negative funding often marks exhaustion of selling pressure.

We touched $60K last week and bounced. Funding stayed negative through all of it. Derivatives not yet convinced. Historically, that's often when bases quietly form underneath.

📈 The Setup

Macro still leaning risk-on. No hard recession data breaking the environment. This level of derivatives pessimism creates an interesting divergence.

Metrics showing undervaluation signals. Funding negative. Price well off highs.

The kind of setup that often precedes another leg, even if we chop around first.

Extended negative funding during consolidation often marks where the next move builds from. Not where downtrends accelerate.

⏳ What This Doesn't Guarantee

→ Immediate reversal (we can drop further)

→ Precise timing (bases are processes)

→ No more chop

If macro shifts to risk-off, bearish positioning could prove correct. Until then, this setup historically favors patience over panic.

Current setup: Funding at -0.006, $68K, crowded short, macro risk-on. Looks like base formation. Even if it takes time.

Written by RugaResearch

On February 6, 2026, on-chain data highlighted a significant shift in Bitcoin liquidity dynamics originating from Binance.

Two critical trends emerged simultaneously:

Spot Rotation: Over 7,000 BTC flowed from Binance to other spot exchanges. This marks the second-highest daily volume in the past year, suggesting a dispersal of assets, likely for liquidity management or arbitrage opportunities across different platforms.

Derivative Speculation: More notably, the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of flows from Binance to derivative exchanges spiked to 3,200 BTC. This is the highest level recorded since January 2024.

Implication:

While the price of Bitcoin has corrected to the $67K region, this aggressive migration of funds—particularly to derivative platforms—indicates that market participants are not sitting idle. The surge in derivative inflows suggests that large entities (whales) are likely hedging against further downside or positioning for high-volatility speculative moves. The simultaneous spot outflow could indicate a reduction of counterparty risk on a single exchange. Consequently, we should anticipate heightened market volatility in the short term as these positions go live.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin's volatility and price-range data on Binance accurately reflect the current market environment. With Bitcoin trading near $70,000, the seven-day annualized volatility reading is close to 1.51. This indicates that Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has risen to its highest level since 2022—a period historically associated with sharp structural shifts in the market and widespread deleveraging. Reaching these levels does not simply reflect a temporary increase in price fluctuations; rather, it suggests a transition from relative consolidation to a more volatile environment, often preceding large-scale repricing or a strong directional move.

Meanwhile, 30-day annualized volatility is hovering around 0.81, while 90-day annualized volatility is near 0.56. This downward gradient across timeframes suggests that recent sharp spikes have not yet developed into a sustained volatility regime and have instead remained confined to shorter bursts—a pattern often observed during consolidation or rebalancing phases.

In addition, the ATR reading as a percentage is around 0.075, a historically low level, indicating that the average daily trading range has narrowed compared with periods of panic or strong rallies. This contraction in the price range reflects reduced risk appetite among traders and a lower frequency of highly leveraged positioning.

From a structural perspective, such low-range environments often help establish a price base before a new trend emerges. At this stage, the market appears to be “gathering energy” after prolonged periods of sharp fluctuations, increasing the likelihood that the next expansion in volatility will be clearly directional—either upward or downward.

Written by Arab Chain

Accumulating Address - Ethereum:

• No outflow in history.

• Last Inflow amount >= 100 ETH.

• Sum of inflow count >= 2.

• Balance >= 100 ETH.

• Have transaction in last 7 years.

• Not CEX address or miner address.

• Not Contract address.

These wallets currently hold 27M ETH. This represents approximately 23% of the total circulating supply.

Over the last 9 years, ETH has traded below the Realized Price of Accumulating Addresses only twice. The first time was during the 2025 ATL, and the second has been unfolding since January 2026.

Written by _OnChain

• Power Law Divergence (by Ben Sizelove): This indicator reflects how far BTC’s price is from its long-term trend. Positive values indicate overextension, while negative values indicate undervaluation.

• In the latest market drop, it reached -95.

• The last time this happened after an ATH was in November 2022.

Written by _OnChain

U.S. retail sales for December fell short of expectations in both the core measure and the retail control group, signaling a clear deceleration in consumer spending—the backbone of the economy. This appears less like short-term noise and more like a potential turning point in the business cycle.

Bitcoin is currently best described as being in a “corrective phase within a broader bearish trend.” Directionally, bearish forces remain conditionally dominant, though the assessment is sensitive to shifts in financial conditions and capital flows.

Macro data point to simultaneous slowdowns in consumption and wages. The downside surprise in retail sales raises risks to corporate revenues and employment, while the Employment Cost Index (ECI) also undershot expectations, indicating easing wage inflation. This combination makes the Federal Reserve more attentive to growth risks, while keeping pressure on risk assets amid slowing growth.

Manufacturing employment continues its long-term decline, suggesting recessionary conditions in a cyclical sector. Taken together, consumption, wages, and manufacturing imply a phase of disinflation alongside slowing growth.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to short-term risk-off moves, similar to equities, even as expectations of future easing can spark rebounds. The quality of those rebounds is key. Since late 2025, the Coinbase Premium Gap has remained persistently negative, signaling weak U.S. spot demand and price action driven largely by derivatives. In prior bull-market onsets, this premium stabilized in positive territory—conditions not yet met today.

The base case is a demand-verification phase under macro slowdown. However, sustained improvement in U.S. spot demand—via ETF inflows and a positive Coinbase Premium—would warrant revisiting this view.

Written by XWIN Research Japan