CryptoQuant Quicktake

Data on net open interest (OI Change 30D) across major trading platforms indicates that the derivatives market is undergoing a clear phase of deleveraging and risk readjustment. The data shows that the downward trend is concentrated on several key platforms, most notably Binance, Gate.io, OKX, and Bybit, reflecting a widespread outflow of capital from futures positions.

Based on the displayed figures, Binance recorded a decline of approximately 40 million ETH over the last 30 days, while Gate.io’s open interest fell by more than 20 million ETH, OKX declined by about 6.8 million ETH, and Bybit by an additional 8.5 million ETH. This brings the total decline across these four platforms alone to approximately 75 million ETH.

When other platforms showing negative readings, albeit with smaller volumes, are included, the total contraction in open interest across all platforms exceeds 80 million ETH over the past 30 days, confirming that the phenomenon is widespread and not limited to a single platform.

This pattern suggests that traders, particularly those using high leverage, are reducing their exposure rather than opening new positions, whether out of caution or due to pressure from volatile price movements. Such periods typically coincide with market transitions, where short-term speculation gives way to a more conservative approach.

From a structural perspective, this significant drop in open interest can be viewed as a “clean-up” of weaker positions, thereby reducing the likelihood of sharp forced liquidations later on. This environment may pave the way for a period of relative stability or the formation of a more solid price base for Ethereum in the near future.

Written by Arab Chain

The world is currently facing a higher level of uncertainty than during 9/11, the Iraq War, and Covid — combined.

This isn’t just a headline. It’s data-driven reality: the Global Uncertainty Index has reached an all-time high.

It has surpassed the 2008 financial crash, the Euro debt crisis, and the pandemic.

So what does this actually mean?

It means markets are struggling to find direction, capital is moving more cautiously, and risk is being priced more aggressively.

It means geopolitical, economic, and political fragilities are all active at the same time. And most importantly, it suggests that what we once considered “normal” volatility may now be the new baseline.

When uncertainty rises, two types of people emerge: those who panic — and those who position.

History shows that periods of extreme uncertainty are also periods of major repositioning.

The real question is:

Will we see this era as a threat — or as a strategic opportunity?

Written by İbrahim COŞAR

Following its all-time high in October 2025, Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for approximately four months and is now approaching what can be considered an undervalued zone.

Generally, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is regarded as undervalued. At present, the indicator stands at around 1.1, suggesting that price levels are nearing the undervaluation range.

However, unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin did not experience a sharp rise into a clearly overvalued zone during the recent bull cycle. This distinction is important to recognize.

As a result, the current decline may also differ from past market bottoms, and it appears necessary to respond with this possibility in mind.

Based on experience, I believe that for most investment assets with a long-term upward trajectory, effective preparation tends to begin during downturns, increasing the likelihood of favorable outcomes.

Written by Crypto Dan

As Bitcoin’s correction continues, volatility is also starting to rise. In an environment shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty, with still incomplete data following the shutdown and heightened geopolitical tensions, it is logical to see additional stress emerging in an already fragile crypto market.

This instability is further amplified by the excess leverage present in derivatives markets. The chain liquidations that can result mechanically intensify price movements and reinforce volatility.

Since the end of summer, Bitcoin’s volatility has increased further. A first major spike was observed during the historic liquidation event on October 10, which affected the entire crypto market. Since then, volatility has remained elevated, particularly in November, late January, and early February.

In this context, some investors endure these periods of stress and may even capitulate, while others seek to take advantage of them by deploying their BTC to generate yield or access liquidity through collateralization solutions.

For example, on Nexo, a platform focused on CeFi services, there is a clear correlation between rising volatility and increasing BTC inflows. In November, around 1,500 BTC were transferred to the platform, nearly three times more than the previous month.

January recorded about 1,100 BTC in inflows, and February has already seen more than 630 BTC, extending this trend.

The cumulative amount of BTC deposited on the platform clearly illustrates investors’ appetite for these types of strategies. Nexo holds more than 43,000 BTC deposited on the platform, representing over $2.7B.

Although near-term sentiment around Bitcoin remains cautious, the longer-term outlook remains constructive. In this environment, such solutions allow investors to optimize exposure while preserving capital amid elevated uncertainty.

Written by Darkfost

As Ethereum bleeds from its October high of $4,800 down to $1,900, the derivatives market is flashing a rare contrarian signal. The 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Ethereum funding rates on Binance has plunged deep into negative territory, hitting -0.006.

Key Insights:

3-Year Low Sentiment:

This level of -0.006 marks the lowest value recorded since early December 2022. It indicates that bearish sentiment has reached an extreme peak not seen in the last three years.

Overcrowded Shorts:

Such a deeply negative rate implies that short sellers are aggressively dominating the market, paying a significant premium to keep their positions open at these lower price levels.

Reversal Setup:

Historically, extreme negative funding rates at major price support levels often precede a massive short squeeze. When the crowd is this convinced that prices will fall further, the market tends to move in the opposite direction to liquidate late bears.

Current data suggests we may be witnessing a classic capitulation event, mirroring the bottom formation of late 2022, potentially setting the stage for a sharp recovery.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. Its objective is to clarify legal classifications, delineate oversight between the SEC and CFTC, define registration standards for exchanges and custodians, and set issuance and reserve requirements for stablecoins. In effect, it attempts to provide a constitutional foundation for the crypto industry.

Yet legislative progress has slowed. The central conflict revolves around yield-bearing stablecoins. Banking groups argue that offering interest or rewards transforms stablecoins into deposit substitutes, potentially increasing liquidity risks for regional banks. They advocate strict limits on compensation structures. Exchanges, however, depend on yield programs as key revenue streams and user acquisition tools, making this issue structurally significant.

If enacted, CLARITY could evolve in two directions. A restrictive framework may limit stablecoins primarily to payment functions and subject yield products to securities or bank-level regulation. Alternatively, a conditional model may permit limited yield structures under enhanced capital, disclosure, and segregation requirements.

Despite regulatory uncertainty, on-chain indicators suggest resilience. ERC20 stablecoin supply remains elevated, and active addresses continue at stable levels, indicating preserved liquidity rather than structural capital flight.

CLARITY’s impact is therefore more likely to reshape participant composition and institutional accessibility over time than to trigger immediate price reactions.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Binance’s Exchange Reserve for ETH is declining meaning coins are being withdrawn from the exchange. Under normal conditions a shrinking exchange supply is considered a positive signal for price. However, price is also falling right now. This suggests that a stronger negative factor is dominating the market. Those factors may include:

1-Derivatives pressure outweighs spot dynamics. Exchange Reserve reflects spot supply but short term price action is mostly driven by the futures market. If open interest is high funding has turned negative and the short side is aggressive derivatives selling can push price lower even if spot supply is shrinking. In other words withdrawals in spot may be overshadowed by stronger short pressure in futures.

2-Withdrawn ETH may not be for holding. Exchange outflows do not always mean long term accumulation. ETH can be withdrawn to be used as DeFi collateral for OTC transactions moved to L2 or staking platforms or transferred to other exchanges. Binance reserves may be declining while global sell pressure still persists.

3-Weak demand side. A supply decrease alone is not enough. If there are no strong new buyers stablecoin inflows are weak or overall risk appetite is low price may not react positively.

4-Macro and market correlation. ETH does not move in isolation. If BTC is weak the DXY is strong or broader risk markets are under pressure positive reserve signals can be overridden by macro driven downside.

5-Whales loading into derivatives. At times large players withdraw spot ETH while simultaneously opening short positions in derivatives.

Currently, reserves are trending downward again, moving averages look weak after a bearish crossover and price sits around $2.9K with fading momentum. If derivatives pressure continues declining reserves may not immediately trigger a rebound. Instead, price could first clear liquidity and retest lower support levels potentially pointing toward the $1,700 region.

Written by PelinayPA

Binance has officially completed the conversion of its SAFU fund into 15,000 BTC, finalizing the $1 billion transition within 30 days of its initial announcement.

The final tranche included 4,545 BTC, bringing total holdings to 15,000 BTC. At a Bitcoin price of $67,000, the fund is now valued at approximately $1.005 billion.

If BTC volatility pushes the fund below $800 million, Binance has committed to rebalancing it back to $1 billion. This move positions Bitcoin as the exchange’s primary long-term reserve asset and reinforces institutional confidence in BTC as collateral.

Written by maartunn

Bitcoin just posted $2.3B in realized losses.

This is one of the largest capitulation events in BTC history, rivaling the 2021 crash, 2022 Luna/FTX collapse, and mid-2024 correction.

📊 What is Net Realized Profit/Loss?

It measures the dollar value of profit or loss locked in when Bitcoin moves on-chain. Red bars show coins sold or transferred at a loss relative to their purchase price.

The bigger the bar, the more pain.

🔴 Current reading: $2.3B (7-day average)

This puts us in the top 3-5 loss events ever recorded. Only a handful of moments in Bitcoin's history have seen this level of capitulation.

👥 Who is selling?

Short-Term Holders (coins held <155 days) who bought between $80K-$110K are capitulating. Weak hands and overleveraged retail are locking in steep losses.

Long-Term Holders are not the source of this spike. They hold through drawdowns.

📍 Historical Context:

In the past, extreme loss spikes like this triggered rebounds. We're seeing it now: BTC bounced from $60K to $71K after the capitulation.

But this could still be the beginning of a deep and slow bleed-out. Relief rallies happen even in prolonged bear markets.

Takeaway: $2.3B in realized losses triggered a bounce from $60K to $71K, consistent with historical capitulation patterns. But the risk remains that this is relief within a longer distribution phase, not a trend reversal. Watch for sustained strength or further deterioration.

Written by IT Tech

The Z-Score data for XRP trading volume on Binance (30-day average) provides a clear picture of liquidity and momentum during the current market phase, offering a valuable framework for understanding the relationship between price movements and actual trading activity.

Currently, XRP is trading near $1.37, with a daily trading volume of approximately 173 million XRP, while the Z-Score is hovering around zero. This reading indicates that the current trading volume is close to its historical average over the past 30 days, without any sharp upward or downward deviations.

In this context, the Z-Score hovering near zero reflects a balance between buying and selling forces, suggesting that the market is experiencing a period of relative calm after earlier bouts of higher volatility. This type of environment is often observed during consolidation or repositioning phases, when traders rebuild their positions without strong directional impulses.

A comparison with past periods on the chart shows that sharp spikes in the Z-Score have often preceded significant price moves in XRP, both upward and downward. Conversely, periods in which the index stabilizes near zero tend to precede subsequent directional movements once the equilibrium phase is complete.

Therefore, the current reading can be interpreted as a sign that the market is in a holding pattern, with a low probability of an immediate explosive move, but a higher likelihood of a new wave forming if a sudden surge in trading volume occurs. A bullish breakout in the Z-Score above +2 could be an early indication of renewed momentum, while a sharp drop below it could reflect increased caution or the start of a corrective wave.

Written by Arab Chain

A promo meant to credit users with 2,000 KRW (~$1.36) accidentally credited 2,000 BTC instead.

The result: ~620,000 BTC briefly appeared inside Bithumb’s internal system. These were not real on-chain coins, just accounting entries.

For context, Bithumb currently holds only 41,798 BTC in reserves.

Around the incident, 3,875 BTC (~$268M) were withdrawn. Some users may have capitalized on the error, while others likely reacted to the shock.

Bithumb says 99.7% was reversed (618,212 BTC), leaving 1,788 BTC unresolved.

On-chain flows suggest the story may be bigger.

Written by maartunn

While Bitcoin’s price bled from $124K to $67K, the Binance Futures‑to‑Spot ratio quietly painted a different picture – especially for altcoins.

By late January, the ratio for ETH, XRP, and Solana had collapsed to multi‑month lows, reflecting fear and spot‑driven selling. But since February began, something shifted. ETH’s ratio climbed from 3.7 to 7.5, breaking decisively above its 7‑day moving average. XRP followed, surging from 2.6 to 4.6. Solana nearly doubled. Even Bitcoin’s ratio recovered, yet altcoins led the charge – their upside momentum in futures activity now outrunning BTC’s.

This isn’t random noise. A rising futures/spot ratio from depressed levels signals returning speculative appetite. Traders aren’t just hedging; they’re positioning. The fact that altcoins are showing stronger relative recovery in this metric suggests capital is rotating back into risk assets before price confirms it.

History echoes: similar bottoms in this ratio preceded the Q1 2024 and Q4 2025 rallies. Today’s setup isn’t euphoria – it’s quiet accumulation in derivatives markets. Short‑term pain is visible, but the futures tape is already discounting a turnaround.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Bitcoin’s slide from $124K to $67K has shaken markets, but on-chain data reveals a split screen: short-term holders are panic‑selling while long‑term believers barely flinch. This isn’t 2022.

At the peak last October, short‑term holders were euphoric – they sent over $8.3 billion in profits to exchanges in a single week. Now the mood has flipped. By mid‑February, loss‑making STH inflows surged to $399 million on February 11, with some days seeing 99% of their deposits underwater. It’s classic capitulation, but the dollar amounts are actually smaller than the $1.5 billion loss day in August 2024. Fear is real, yet less extreme than previous sell‑offs.

Long‑term holders tell a different story. Even as prices tumbled, LTH inflows remained a fraction of STH volume, and most coins arrived in profit. On February 11, when STH dumped $399 million at a loss, LTH sent only $23.8 million in losses – a drop in the ocean. Contrast this with early 2024, when LTH absorbed over $225 million in losses during a single capitulation. Today, they’re sitting tight.

This divergence matters. In 2022, long‑term holders bled red for months. This time, they’re refusing to sell at a loss. Short‑term panic is loud, but the quiet conviction of those who’ve weathered cycles suggests the floor may be closer than the fear implies.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Executive Summary:

On-chain data reveals that the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of USD Coin (ERC-20) active addresses has reached a new all-time high of 186,000. This spike in network utility is inversely correlated with the current price action of major assets.

Market Context & Analysis:

This record-breaking activity coincides with a severe correction in the crypto market. Bitcoin has retraced approximately 45%, falling from its $125,000 peak in October 2025 to $68,000 as of February 2026.

1. Flight to Safety (Risk-Off):

The surge in active addresses indicates classic “risk-off” behavior. Investors are aggressively swapping volatile assets (BTC, altcoins) into stablecoins to preserve capital. The specific preference for USDC often signals activity from institutional players and sophisticated DeFi users who prioritize transparency and regulatory safety during market turbulence.

2. Accumulating “Dry Powder”:

While the price drop signals fear, the on-chain data offers a silver lining. Liquidity is not exiting the ecosystem to fiat; it is merely being “parked” on the Ethereum network. This high volume of active addresses represents a massive accumulation of “dry powder”—purchasing power that remains on-chain.

Conclusion:

The divergence between falling prices and rising stablecoin activity suggests we are in a period of capitulation. However, history suggests that high stablecoin accumulation during price bottoms often precedes a reversal. The $68,000 level is effectively being tested by capital that is waiting on the sidelines, ready to re-enter the market once stability returns.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin market sentiment is showing early signs of stabilization, and Binance’s 7-day Net Taker Flow reflects that shift when viewed in proper macro context. Crypto markets move in cycles. During bearish phases, aggressive sell orders dominate and net taker flow turns deeply negative as risk appetite contracts. As selling pressure exhausts, that imbalance begins to compress before buyers gradually regain control.

After reaching nearly -$4.9B in cumulative net selling in early February, Binance’s 7-day taker flow has steadily recovered and flipped positive to around +$0.32B. The sentiment ratio has moved from roughly -3% back into positive territory, signaling a clear decline in sell-side aggression. Daily sell dominance has weakened, while taker buy volume is increasingly absorbing liquidity as Bitcoin stabilizes around the mid-$60K range.

Context is essential. When compared with aggregated exchange data, the recovery is not isolated, but Binance shows a stronger shift in net buying pressure than peers. This suggests recent outflows were part of broader crypto market cyclicality rather than venue-specific stress, with directional positioning concentrating where liquidity depth is highest.

From a market structure perspective, sustained negative net taker flow often aligns with late-stage distribution. The recent compression in cumulative sell volume and transition back to positive flow points to early-stage trend stabilization. Across multiple Bitcoin cycles, exchanges demonstrating relative flow stability tend to normalize first as sentiment improves. Current data supports a narrative of declining selling pressure and strengthening spot-driven demand within the broader digital asset market cycle.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Data from the Bitcoin Halving Cycle Tracker on Binance shows that the market has currently reached approximately 662 days after the halving, a stage that historically falls around the midpoint of the cycle. This indicates that the market has moved beyond the initial post-halving surge and has begun entering a phase of balance and gradual structural building.

The Cycle Position indicator records a reading of approximately 0.453, suggesting that the cycle has not yet reached its final stages and remains within the mid-phase. At the same time, the Growth Ratio stands at around 1.055, reflecting positive but moderate growth, far from excessive expansion.

Meanwhile, the Z-Score, at approximately -1.64, indicates that the market is trading below its statistical average. This condition is often observed during consolidation or correction phases, where selling pressure tends to be relatively elevated.

Overall, these readings suggest that the market is undergoing a phase of rebalancing and accumulation within the current cycle, with the broader cyclical structure remaining intact. Additionally, the decline in relative volatility and the stability of the 30-day moving average support the idea that the market is building a new structural base. Historically, such phases often precede larger expansionary moves as momentum gradually improves and liquidity returns to the market.

Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI) has now dropped into the low 0.2 range.

Historically, this level aligns more closely with early bear market phases (2018, 2022) rather than mid-cycle corrections.

In October, BCMI was holding around 0.5 — a neutral equilibrium zone.

Today, that structure has clearly broken down.

What changed?

The 0.5 mid-cycle equilibrium failed to hold

No strong rebound from 0.3

Direct continuation toward 0.2 without expansion reset

This behavior differs from past mid-cycle cooling phases.

Instead, it resembles a risk-off regime transition.

Historical Context

Previous cycle bottoms formed when BCMI reached:

~0.10–0.15 in 2019

~0.15 in 2022–2023

Current levels remain above historical capitulation zones.

This suggests that while the market may already be in a bearish structure,

full capitulation conditions have not yet appeared.

Structural Interpretation

BCMI aggregates valuation (MVRV), profitability (NUPL), spending behavior (SOPR), and sentiment.

A move into the low 0.2s reflects:

Shrinking unrealized profits

Increasing realized losses

Sentiment deterioration

Valuation compression underway

However, extreme panic territory (0.1 zone) has not yet been reached.

Conclusion

The data increasingly supports a bear market transition scenario, not a simple correction.

Unless BCMI stabilizes and reclaims 0.4–0.5,

the probability favors continued structural weakness.

From a cycle perspective,

true bottom conditions may still be ahead.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

• LTH NUPL reached 0.39 during the latest market drop.

• The last time that long-term holders saw a similar low level of unrealized profit after an ATH was in May 2022.

• Indicator: LTH NUPL (by Axel Adler Jr., CQ Verified Author).

Written by _OnChain

• STH NUPL reached -0.5 during the latest market drop.

• The last time that short-term holders recorded a similar level of unrealized losses after an ATH was in June 2022.

Written by _OnChain

Bitcoin’s temporary break below $60,000 triggered a wave of nervousness across the market, including among whales.

Contrary to a common belief, these large holders do not systematically represent a form of rational and patient smart money. They also react to market shocks, sometimes opportunistically, sometimes under pressure.

As shown by the chart tracking their inflows to Binance, a platform often favored for large transactions due to its deep liquidity, spikes in inflows tend to appear both during euphoric phases and during market lows.

The current situation clearly reflects this dynamic.

As BTC fell from $95,000 to $60,000, the average monthly inflows of BTC to Binance from whales increased sharply.

They rose from around 1,000 BTC to nearly 3,000 BTC, with a notable spike of roughly 12,000 BTC on February 6 alone. This type of movement signals an intensification of transfers to exchanges at a time of strong price stress.

Since February 1, seven trading days have recorded more than 5,000 BTC in daily inflows from this group of investors. This unusual frequency highlights that some whales remain highly sensitive to rapid market swings and are actively adjusting their positions.

Rising inflows typically signal increasing selling pressure, which is especially concerning in an environment where overall market liquidity is tightening. Given the scale of the volumes they move, whales can abruptly influence price dynamics. Monitoring their flows is therefore essential to anticipate volatility phases and better understand the forces shaping the market.

Written by Darkfost