CryptoQuant Quicktake

Since its last all time high, the ongoing correction on Ethereum continues to put investors under significant strain, particularly traders active in derivatives markets.

Open interest on Ethereum has fallen by more than 66%, dropping from $33.3B to $11.4B. In other words, the notional value committed to futures contracts has been divided by three, highlighting the scale of the market disengagement.

This sharp contraction in open interest directly reflects the impact of the correction on leveraged positions.

The decline has been widespread across major platforms.

Binance recorded a 68.2% drop in ETH open interest, OKX saw a 63.5% decrease, while Bybit experienced the steepest fall at 72.6%.

Despite this, Binance still holds the largest share of Ethereum open interest, accounting for more than 35% of positions among the CEXs considered, followed by Gate.io with 23.4% and Bybit with 14.4%.

Several factors explain this abrupt drop in open interest :

- The current environment remains uncertain, and the continuation of Bitcoin’s correction is prompting traders to reduce risk exposure and close positions.

- The volatility has triggered a wave of liquidations, particularly among investors attempting to trade against the prevailing trend wich erased a large amount of liquidity

- Because this is notional open interest, the decline in ETH’s price mechanically reduces the value of outstanding futures positions even when contract sizes remain unchanged.

In this context, the sharp contraction in open interest signals a period of stress in Ethereum’s derivatives market.

While this deleveraging phase may help cleanse excess leverage and strengthen market structure over the medium term, it also reflects the strong risk aversion currently dominating sentiment.

Until confidence and market sentiment recover sustainably, derivatives are likely to remain a primary source of selling pressure.

Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin Spot ETFs have recorded their fourth consecutive week of negative net flows, highlighting a prolonged period of institutional risk-off behavior. Since mid-January, the dominant trend has been characterized by consistent capital outflows rather than accumulation.

Data Breakdown:

The bearish trend began the week of Jan 19, 2026, and persisted through last week.

Peak Selling: The most aggressive selling occurred during the week of Feb 02, driven largely by IBIT (BlackRock), which saw a massive index outflow of -626.

Last Week (commencing Feb 09): Although the intensity of the selling decelerated compared to the peak (with IBIT outflows dropping to ~-225), the aggregate flow remained negative, marking the fourth straight week of red bars.

Conclusion:

While the deceleration in selling pressure last week offers some relief, the absence of positive inflows indicates that institutional sentiment remains cautious. The market effectively remains in a “distribution” phase until we see a definitive return to green weekly inflows.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The idea that Binance is "losing control" spreads faster than the data behind it. Yes, Binance has given up roughly 2.31 percentage points of BTC spot market share over the past 365 days through February 2026. That's real. What's misleading is the conclusion.

Market share change measures direction, not dominance. Binance remains the largest BTC spot venue by a wide margin. This isn't collapse—it's controlled contraction as activity redistributes across more venues.

That redistribution is the real story. The share hasn't flowed to one successor but fragmented. Gate.io gained nearly three percentage points, while KuCoin and MEXC absorbed smaller portions. On the regulated side, Bullish picked up meaningful share—institutional liquidity finding purpose-built infrastructure rather than rotating between legacy giants.

What's often missed: Binance isn't even the weakest performer. Bybit lost more market share over the same period, despite being framed as the primary alternative during Binance's regulatory stress. That gap between narrative and data matters for traders repositioning based on perception rather than measured flow.

Zooming out, the pattern is cyclical. Binance historically loses share during bull markets as liquidity spreads toward regulated on-ramps like Coinbase and altcoin-focused exchanges, then regains it as conditions cool and capital consolidates back into the deepest pools. This drawdown fits that pattern and is already moderating.

The true insight isn't failure—it's maturation. The CEX landscape is deeper, more distributed, and more selective than two years ago. Binance is leaking share in a competitive cycle, not bleeding relevance. Confusing those two leads to conclusions history—and data—repeatedly prove wrong.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Summary:

Following a volatile period marked by three consecutive weeks of massive capital flight, the latest data from the Binance Multichain Weekly Netflow Timeseries suggests that the “bleeding” has significantly slowed down. The market appears to have entered a phase of relative stability after the storm.

The Storm: Three Weeks of Aggressive Outflows

Looking back at the trend starting mid-January 2026, Binance experienced a severe stress test regarding asset reserves:

The Capitulation Phase (Jan 19 - Feb 02):

For three straight weeks, starting from the week of Jan 19, we witnessed multi-billion dollar outflows.

The peak occurred during the week commencing Jan 26, 2026, where we saw a staggering ~$5.9 Billion net outflow in Bitcoin (BTC_Native) alone, alongside significant exits in Ethereum and Stablecoins.

This trend continued into the week of Feb 02, with another ~$4.7 Billion in BTC leaving the exchange. This consistent red volume indicated either extreme market fear or a massive strategic shift toward self-custody by institutional whales.

The Calm: Week of February 9th

In contrast to the previous month’s volatility, the data for the week starting February 9, 2026, paints a different picture. The aggressive selling pressure has dissipated:

BTC Netflow: Dropped from billions in outflows to a negligible -$167 Million.

ETH Netflow: Narrowed down to -$407 Million, a fraction of the previous weeks’ volume.

Stablecoins: While USDT (ERC20) still shows some negative flow, the magnitude has decreased compared to the January highs.

Conclusion & Outlook

The dramatic shrinkage of the negative bars suggests that the selling exhaustion point may have been reached. The market has absorbed the shock of the heavy distribution phase seen in late January.

While we are not yet seeing significant positive inflows (accumulation), the absence of heavy outflows is a bullish divergence from the recent trend. This “calm” indicates that the weak hands have been flushed out. Traders

Written by CryptoOnchain

Data from Binance indicates that Bitcoin’s supply ratio has risen to 0.03357, marking its highest level since November and representing a notably elevated reading compared to previous months. This increase reflects a rise in the amount of Bitcoin held on the exchange and is often associated with investors’ willingness to sell or rebalance liquidity, particularly during periods of heightened price volatility or when the market tests key resistance levels.

However, recent data shows that this ratio has declined slightly from that peak, currently settling near 0.03351. Despite this slight decrease, the ratio remains relatively high from a historical perspective, meaning that a significant portion of the supply is still held on exchanges, with a gradual shift toward withdrawals.

The decline in the supply ratio on exchanges reflects a growing tendency among investors to move Bitcoin to their personal wallets or long-term storage solutions rather than holding it on exchanges. Historically, this behavior is associated with accumulation phases and a decreased appetite for short-term selling, which helps reduce immediate selling pressure on the price.

On the other hand, the combination of reaching a high since November followed by a slight pullback suggests that the market is undergoing a rebalancing of supply-and-demand forces. This behavior is often observed during periods of price consolidation, where selling pressure is absorbed without a sharp trend reversal.

Written by Arab Chain

[A Stabilizing Market]

After undergoing a -48% correction between October and February, Bitcoin has stabilized, suggesting a market transition from sharp repricing to consolidation. In this steadier environment, Nexo clients are withdrawing more credit than during previous months.

[Nexo Retail Credit Withdrawals Escalating in January]

While the Nexo client withdrawals declined through 2025, reflecting a broad risk-off behavior, the leveling off in late 2025 / early 2026 suggests retail participants have largely completed balance-sheet tightening. At the same time, CryptoQuant’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) has been resetting to healthier levels.

From December 2025 to January 2026, the weekly retail withdrawals of Nexo users grew from 6.73 to 13.92 million, representing a ~107% growth.

This new confidence among the Nexo investors reflects improved sentiment, and mirrors a weakening bitcoin-related selling pressure, as the leading cryptocurrency paves its way towards consolidation.

[Cumulative Credit Withdrawals Reach an All-Time High]

Nexo users' cumulative credit withdrawals have reached $863 million between 2025 and 2026. This figure reflects robust borrowing activity across market cycles, indicating ongoing demand for crypto-backed liquidity solutions.

Recent data signals the end of deleveraging and emerging signs of renewed confidence and borrowing demand as the crypto market reaches a new equilibrium.

[Looking Forward]

The recent crypto deleveraging phase appears largely absorbed, with open interest declining from prior highs, funding rates normalizing, and liquidation volumes subsiding. This potentially creates room for renewed borrowing activity should sentiment and liquidity conditions improve. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is consolidating and stabilizing near $67K, building a firm base after the recent volatility surge.

Written by oinonen_t

Recently, the Stablecoin Ratio on Binance has turned upward, indicating rising stablecoin balances relative to BTC reserves and therefore increasing potential buying power. Despite this, Bitcoin remains weak around $68K, while the 30 and 50 day moving averages continue to trend lower. This creates a clear divergence between liquidity conditions and price action.

An increasing Stablecoin Ratio suggests deployable capital is entering the exchange. However, liquidity alone does not move price unless it is actively used. At present, the market appears to be in a waiting phase: capital is present, but conviction is not. Historically, similar setups tend to resolve after price establishes a deeper local low, triggering stronger fear and eventually spot accumulation.

The current environment suggests investors are not yet sufficiently risk averse. As a result, a further decline toward a new local bottom remains a plausible scenario before a sustainable recovery begins.

A decisive break above the $72.5K resistance level, supported by the continued rise in the Stablecoin Ratio, would signal a potential shift toward bullish momentum. However, if the ratio keeps rising while price repeatedly fails to break resistance, stablecoin inflows may be defensive rather than accumulative possibly serving as collateral for derivatives positions rather than funding spot purchases. In that case, downside continuation would remain the dominant outlook.

My base expectation is that price will struggle to break resistance and may continue lower until a clearer bottom forms, as large holders and institutional participants appear to remain in observation mode rather than actively deploying spot capital.

Written by PelinayPA

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed (F&G) Index has been frozen in "Extreme Fear" for weeks, even hitting a skeletal low of 5 this month. However, beneath this icy sentiment, the technical architecture tells a more resilient story.

Here is a streamlined breakdown of the current market structure:

1. The On-Chain Floor: NUPL & SOPR

NUPL (0.2): Despite the gloom, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is holding the "Hope" zone. This suggests the holder cost basis is still healthy; we haven't slid into the "Capitulation" phase yet.

aSOPR (0.98): While some are selling at a loss, the volume is thin. The lack of a massive spike in realized losses means panic selling hasn't truly begun—the market is bending, but not breaking.

2. The Derivative Shift: Funding & OI

After two weeks of negative funding rates, we finally saw a flip to +0.0044%. While this looks like bulls reclaiming $68,000, the Open Interest (OI) reveals a different motive:

The Divergence: As price edged up, total OI plummeted from $32B to $21.5B.

The Reality: This isn't "new money" buying the dip; it’s a short-covering rally. The upward pressure is coming from bears being forced to buy back their positions (short squeezing) rather than organic demand.

The Bottom Line

Market Realized Price ($54.8K) remains the ultimate line in the sand for any potential retreat.

History shows that when funding rates turn positive while retail remains paralyzed by "Extreme Fear," we are likely in a protracted bottoming process. These phases can grind sideways for 5 to 9 months. Until we see Open Interest rising alongside price (indicating fresh capital), we are in a waiting game of accumulation rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Written by Sunny Mom

After undergoing a sharp correction, Bitcoin is now consolidating within a range between $72 000 and $65 000, a zone where significant activity from whales, long term holders, and even institutional investors is taking place.

During deep corrections or in the late stages of bear markets, investors tend to rotate capital toward Bitcoin while stepping away from altcoins. This behavior can be observed by analyzing trading volumes on Binance, broken down into three categories : BTC, ETH, and other Altcoins.

Because Binance consistently records some of the highest trading volumes in the market, it represents a particularly relevant benchmark for studying these shifts in investor behavior.

As BTC moved back above $60 000, a notable change in trading volume distribution emerged.

On February 7, Bitcoin trading volumes on Binance regained dominance, accounting for 36.8% of total exchange volume. A dominance that has continued through to today.

In comparison, altcoins represented 35.3% and Ethereum accounted for 27.8%.

Altcoin trading volumes have been the most heavily impacted during this correction.

Compared with November, when altcoins represented 59.2% of Binance trading volumes, their share had fallen to 33.6% by February 13, marking an almost 50% contraction in altcoin activity.

This pattern has appeared repeatedly during previous corrective phases, including April 2025, August 2024, and October 2022 near the end of the bear market.

It is particularly striking to observe how Bitcoin’s share of trading volume increases during periods of uncertainty and market stress.

In these environments, investors naturally gravitate toward BTC, reinforcing its role as the primary asset for capital preservation and highlighting its continued status as the market’s central benchmark.

Written by Darkfost

Although whale inflows to exchanges have increased recently, their overall holdings have continued to grow.

Inflows typically reflect short term behavior and can generate immediate selling pressure.

This chart instead provides a more medium term perspective by tracking the evolution of whale held supply on a monthly average basis.

After a sharp drop in this average, reaching nearly -7% on December 15, whale behavior appears to have shifted over the past month, as their holdings have increased by 3.4%.

Over this period, the supply held by whales rose from 2.9 million BTC to more than 3.1 million BTC, representing an accumulation of over 200 000 BTC.

The last time a whale movement of this magnitude occurred was during the April 2025 correction.

That wave of accumulation likely helped absorb selling pressure at the time and supported the continuation of the rally, allowing BTC to move from $76 000 to $126 000.

With BTC consolidating around 46% below its latest all time high, current levels can be viewed as an attractive accumulation zone. It is therefore not surprising to see some whales taking advantage of this opportunity.

That said, selling pressure remains significant, and this demand may not yet be sufficient on its own to fully offset it.

Written by Darkfost

📰 Daily Market Update:

📊 Binance Bitcoin Futures Power 30D Change

The Index 30D Change tracks the net change in the composite market index over the past 30 days, reflecting real momentum through price, funding, and open interest.

🔬 Key Observation

📉 By Feb 12, the indicator dropped sharply to -0.18, marking the most negative reading since July 2024.

📅 The last time we saw similar levels was between April and May 2024.

📈 After hitting similar depressed levels in May 2024, BTC later rebounded strongly, pushing above $101k alongside the first positive turns in the futures power index.

⏲️ This suggests current weakness in futures momentum, but historically such deep negative values have preceded strong rebounds once sentiment resets.

📊 iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF

* The ETF tracks leading North American software companies, spanning cloud software, interactive platforms, gaming, and major names like Microsoft, Salesforce, Oracle, Adobe, and Palantir.

* Both software stocks and Bitcoin are commonly classified by investors as high-growth, high-risk assets.

📈 When macro sentiment turns optimistic, capital tends to flow into both simultaneously.

📉 When fear dominates, money exits both and seeks safety in assets like bonds or gold.

⏲️ The chart shows IGV hovering near strong historical support levels that previously held in 2024 and 2025, suggesting that a rebound in tech stocks could also support Bitcoin through renewed risk appetite.

📊 BTC: STH LTH Net Position Realized Cap

This metric tracks the 30d realized cap change for (STH) and (LTH).

📉 Currently, the STH Realized Cap remains deeply negative, reaching around -$56B on Feb 16.

This indicates that recent buyers are sitting on heavy unrealized losses.

📈 Meanwhile, LTH Realized Cap stayed positive, reflecting resilience among long‑term holders.

📉Such divergence often triggers panic selling by STH, absorbed by LTH accumulation, which historically stabilizes price after capitulation events.

Written by Amr Taha

Data on the Estimated Leverage Ratio for Ethereum on Binance reveals a clear shift in trader behavior within the derivatives market. The indicator recently registered a reading close to 0.557, its lowest value since last December. This decline follows a period in which estimated leverage reached relatively high levels, peaking near 0.675, reflecting a market transition from a high-risk environment to a more conservative, rebalancing phase.

Such a decrease in leverage indicates that traders are reducing the size of their leveraged positions or closing a portion of their highly leveraged trades. Historically, these movements tend to occur ahead of the formation of new price bases, as market participants seek to reduce risk rather than pursue quick profits driven by excessive speculation.

The move from the 0.675 level to around 0.557 is not merely a simple technical fluctuation; it reflects a shift in overall market sentiment. During periods of high leverage, the market is more prone to sharp fluctuations and sudden sell-offs, while relatively lower levels indicate a more stable environment with a reduced likelihood of large-scale liquidations.

this decline can be viewed as a positive sign in the medium term, as reduced leverage often prepares the market for healthier price action driven by genuine spot demand rather than derivatives-driven impulses. Furthermore, the combination of this low reading and relative price stability may suggest that the market is undergoing a consolidation or repositioning phase in preparation for a more pronounced subsequent move.

Written by Arab Chain

Realized Price – UTXO Age Bands reflects the average cost basis of different holder cohorts, allowing us to assess which segments of the market are currently under stress. This metric helps identify where selling pressure is coming from and whether the broader market structure remains intact.

At present, price has moved below the short-term holder realized price bands (1w–1m and 1m–3m). This indicates that short-term participants are largely underwater, and the recent downside is primarily driven by distribution from this cohort. This structure also explains why relief rallies remain capped, as price tends to face supply when it approaches short-term holders’ cost basis, where break-even exits and stop-losses cluster.

However, price has not yet established sustained acceptance below the longer-term realized price bands (6m+). This suggests the current move is better characterized as a reset / mini bear phase rather than a full-scale capitulation. Without reclaiming short-term realized price bands, trend recovery remains limited, while the preservation of long-term cost bases implies that structural downside risk is still contained.

Written by tugbachain

- Cumulative Buy/Sell Diff (alts, ex-BTC/ETH): -209B

- Jan 2025: near zero - last time demand matched supply

- Since then: -209B in 13 months. One direction only.

- BTC at 68.8K. Down from 125K+ ATH in Oct 2025.

Retail is out. Smart money rotated. No institutional alt accumulation in sight.

This is not a dip. It's 13 months of continuous net selling on CEX spot.

-209B doesn't mean bottom. It means buyers are gone.

Written by IT Tech

In the face of Bitcoin’s current downturn, serenity is the watchword. This mindset is essential, especially for beginner investors. For those just entering this market, it is crucial to understand that volatility is not a flaw, but rather the hallmark of the asset. More than that, it is one of the reasons why even former critics now invest in it. They recognized in Bitcoin the possibility of exponential growth of wealth — something they had not seen in other sectors of the economy.

Meanwhile, those who perceive its long-term value as a store of value — in a world marked by continuous monetary expansion — view the bear market without panic. The applied strategy focuses on monitoring accumulation zones with tactical allocation. And this profitable approach is only possible with concrete on-chain data. It is in this context that the Bitcoin on-chain indicator, MVRV Z-Score — in its adapted version, the Accumulation Signal — takes center stage. After all, it is through this signal that one can identify whether Bitcoin is undervalued relative to its average acquisition cost.

INDICATOR X-RAY

◾ Z-Score Line = 0 → the trigger signaling entry into buying periods with historic accumulation opportunities.

◾ Red Zone → the territory of euphoria and market tops.

◾ Current Value → 0.48

◾ Monitoring a surge → Since the bottom recorded on November 21, 2022, Bitcoin has risen 713% until reaching its ATH in October 2026. The MVRV Z-Score closely tracked this trajectory.

◾ Bitcoin Current Price → $67K

◾ BTC 24h Variation → -1.27%

◾ Original Concept Developers → analysts Murad Mahmudov and David Puell.

◾ Mission of the MVRV Z-SCORE → to guide investors in detecting market cycle tops and bottoms.

CONCLUSION

Amid the downturn, on-chain data shows the way. With the MVRV Z-Score Accumulation Signal at 0.48 — that is, close to the accumulation zone — the strategy is clear: monitor, accumulate, and maintain serenity.

Written by GugaOnChain

The November 2026 U.S. midterm elections could mark a structural turning point for crypto markets, not merely as a political event, but as a catalyst for regulatory implementation. The key driver is the GENIUS Act, enacted in 2025, which establishes a federal framework for stablecoins and is expected to enter full implementation within 12–24 months after the election.

Prediction markets currently indicate roughly a 60% probability of Republican Senate control and an 83% probability of Democratic House control, making a divided Congress the base case. Such a structure reduces the likelihood of abrupt regulatory shifts, favoring gradual regulatory clarity instead. This environment allows markets to reprice risk progressively as implementation details emerge.

On-chain data already reflects this transition. According to CryptoQuant, the total supply of ERC20-based stablecoins has rebounded since 2024 and exceeded $150 billion, approaching historical highs. Stablecoins represent the most direct measure of crypto market liquidity, and supply expansion signals capital positioning before risk allocation.

Historically, stablecoin supply growth has preceded major bull cycles. The current elevated supply suggests liquidity remains structurally present, even amid short-term volatility.

Meanwhile, broader market structure reforms such as the CLARITY Act remain politically dependent. Under a divided Congress, regulatory evolution is likely to be incremental rather than immediate.

Ultimately, regulation does not follow price—it reshapes the conditions under which price forms. The stablecoin supply structure indicates that the liquidity foundation for the next market cycle may already be in place.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Ethereum’s Exchange Supply Ratio data on Binance reveals a significant shift in holder behavior recently, marked by a notable decline in the share of Ethereum held on the exchange. This points to a change in the market’s supply-and-demand balance.

Ethereum’s on Binance has fallen to approximately 0.0296, its lowest level since August 2024. This decline indicates a reduction in the amount of Ethereum available on the exchange relative to the total circulating supply. It suggests that investors have been withdrawing Ethereum into private wallets or storage protocols—a behavior often associated with accumulation or a reduced intention to sell in the near term.

Historically, a decline in exchange supply is considered a positive structural signal, as it implies that a larger portion of Ethereum is being held off-exchange, thereby reducing potential selling pressure. At the same time, this decline coincides with Ethereum trading near $1,950, a level that reflects relative weakness compared with previous peaks, yet still within a relatively stable trading range.

Notably, the sharp drop in Ethereum’s supply on Binance was followed by a slight rebound in the indicator over the past few days, edging back toward the 0.03 level. This may indicate a limited return of supply to the platform, whether for short-term trading or position rebalancing. However, the rebound remains modest relative to the magnitude of the preceding decline, suggesting that the broader trend still favors reduced exchange supply.

Written by Arab Chain

The situation in Bitcoin continues to deteriorate, with the asset still trading more than 45% below its previous all time high. This prolonged correction is putting pressure on a broad share of investors, and even long term holders are beginning to feel the effects of this unfavorable market dynamic.

The LTH SOPR, which measures the profits and losses realized when their UTXOs are spent, has recently moved into negative territory. While the annual average LTH SOPR remains elevated at 1.87, the indicator has fallen below the key threshold of 1 to 0.88, a configuration not seen since the end of the 2023 bear market.

On average, this implies that LTHs are now realizing losses on their sales, reflecting a gradual build up of financial stress within a group of investors that has historically been highly resilient.

At the same time, despite the growing share of realized losses, LTHs have increased their inflows to Binance in recent weeks.

The chart highlights periods when daily inflows reach levels roughly twice the annual average, signaling exceptionally elevated flows and a clear shift in behavior. These spikes in activity suggest that a portion of LTHs is actively repositioning in response to current market conditions.

This pattern has been visible since the last all time high and has accelerated in recent weeks. Several consecutive days have recorded inflows well above typical levels, pointing to sustained growth in LTH activity on the platform. Given their capacity to move significant volumes of BTC, it is unsurprising that these participants often favor Binance for its market depth and liquidity.

In this context, rising LTH inflows can be interpreted as a sign of intensifying selling pressure, even as the broader correction continues to unfold. This behavior suggests an adjustment phase in which even long term investors are actively managing their exposure, a factor that could continue to weigh on market dynamics in the short to medium term.

Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin Average Supply-Adjusted CDD data on Binance provides an in-depth view of the behavior of older coins and the movement of effective supply toward the exchange, offering important signals about Bitcoin holders’ decisions over the medium term.

According to the latest data, Bitcoin is trading near the $68,000 level, while Coin Days Destroyed (USD) stands at approximately $292 million, with a 30-day moving average around $667 million. At the same time, the Supply-Adjusted CDD metric is near $438 million, while its weekly average is around $741 million. These levels are considered moderate compared with previous peaks that reflected intense activity from older coins.

During periods when Supply-Adjusted CDD records sharp increases, this is often accompanied by movements of older coins toward exchanges, typically interpreted as profit-taking or redistribution. By contrast, current readings suggest that older-coin activity remains relatively limited despite the recent price decline. This behavior reflects a tendency among long-term Bitcoin holders to continue holding rather than engaging in broad-based selling.

Notably, Bitcoin’s drop below $70,000 was not accompanied by a strong spike in the indicator, which may imply that the selling pressure is driven more by short-term traders or derivatives markets rather than large-scale liquidation by long-term holders. Historically, such environments tend to form price bases before the broader trend resumes.

Written by Arab Chain

Since October 6, the date of Bitcoin’s last ATH, the price is now 46% lower, following a drawdown that exceeded 52%. This represents the largest drawdown of this cycle, highlighting the strength of the current correction.

This correction reflects not only Bitcoin’s natural volatility but also a particularly unfavorable external environment.

Indeed, during this period, the macroeconomic and geopolitical climate has significantly deteriorated, creating uncertainty that weighs on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Last summer, the market was dominated by strong buying pressure, as reflected by delta volume analysis, which supported price appreciation.

Since October, this dynamic has radically reversed. The spot net volume Delta has moved deeply into negative territory on major exchanges, notably Binance and Coinbase.

On Coinbase, monthly flows show a clear dominance of selling volumes, with a monthly average of -$89 M, while on Binance this trend is even more pronounced, at -$147 M. These figures highlight significant selling pressure impacting the spot market.

The absence of sufficient spot demand to regain control is problematic if Bitcoin is to resume a new bullish trend. In a global environment unfavorable to risk assets, investors prefer to reduce their exposure, manage their positions, and sometimes shift toward less volatile assets. This caution reflects a desire to preserve capital rather than take risks in an uncertain market, a behavior that is inherently unfavorable to Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

Written by Darkfost