CryptoQuant Quicktake

So if smart money is buying record amounts while price drops, what could that be telling us?
What Is LTH Net Position Change?
LTH Net Position Change shows how much the total BTC held by long-term investors has increased or decreased over 30 days.
The green zone means these hands are accumulating, while the red zone means they're selling. In short, this metric lets us read what smart money is actually doing. The higher the green climbs, the more aggressive the buying.
Current Situation
Right now this metric is firing a flare in the positive direction.
The largest green reading in 6 years just printed. On May 24, 2026, it hit 1.29 million BTC/30D, surpassing even the August 2017 record. In other words, the strongest hands were on stage exactly when price was at its weakest. Accumulation on this scale is proof that strong hands are still present for the long term.
As Bitcoin approaches the realized price level, strong hands step onto the stage.
Conclusion
On its own, this data isn't enough to call the bull back, but that doesn't change the fact that it's a strong positive signal.
On top of that, following these buys, Bitcoin staged a roughly 15% rally from 58K to 66K. The strong LTH sentiment that came after the record data carried price almost all the way to the STH RP (short-term holder cost basis), which is 68K. Whether or not this level gets broken will be the critical decision zone that determines the short-term trend.
Do you think BTC can close above the STH RP (68K) in Q3?
Written by burakkesmeci

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the number of ERC20 stablecoin deposit transactions into Binance is currently around 12K transactions, after several strong spikes appeared in July.
This shows that stablecoin activity moving onto Binance is still being maintained, reflecting that some liquidity is returning to the exchange to prepare for trading or wait for buying opportunities.
However, the current level has cooled down compared to the previous large spikes, so it is still too early to say that stablecoin inflows are clearly exploding again.
Written by Rei Researcher

Recent on-chain metrics show a noticeable uptick in Exchange Inflows within the 6M–12M Spent Output Age Bands, accompanied by heightened volatility in its market dominance. This increased movement of coins—held between 6 and 12 months—toward exchanges may suggest that this particular cohort is actively rebalancing or repositioning their assets, which could potentially signal early preparations for the next market phase.
Written by nino

Data shows that the BTC MVRV Ratio has declined significantly from the cycle highs, but it is still trading above the Accumulation Zone around MVRV ≤ 1.
This suggests that $BTC valuation has cooled down considerably, but it has not yet entered a clearly undervalued zone like the deep accumulation phases seen in the past.
The notable point is that MVRV is still far from the Distribution / High Risk zone, showing that the market is no longer overheated. However, the fact that it has not revisited the accumulation zone also means that this cannot yet be confirmed as a complete cycle bottom.
Written by Rei Researcher

Ethereum reserves across major exchanges are showing a notable divergence, with Gemini falling to a multi-year low while Binance remains broadly stable.
Gemini’s ETH reserve declined to 384,400 ETH on July 24, its lowest level since March 2024. That marks a drop of roughly 188,600 ETH, or 32.9%, from 573,000 ETH recorded on April 23.
Bitfinex has also recorded a substantial decline.
Its Ethereum reserve fell from 2.71 million ETH on May 11 to 2.24 million ETH, a reduction of approximately 470,000 ETH, or 17.3%.
By contrast, Binance currently holds around 3.8 million ETH, broadly unchanged from its May 11 level.
Combined, Gemini and Bitfinex now hold approximately 658,600 fewer ETH than at their respective April and May reference levels.
At Ethereum’s current price near $1,880, that difference represents roughly $1.24 billion worth of ETH.
The data highlights increasingly different reserve trends across exchanges.
While lower exchange balances can reduce the amount of ETH immediately held on trading platforms, reserve data alone does not establish investor intent or determine the asset’s next price direction.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin's Supply in Profit (%), the share of bitcoin worth more than its acquisition price, has climbed to 57.5% as of July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30, the 2026 low.
The recovery is real:
- In about three weeks, more than one in ten bitcoins swung from loss back into profit, with BTC up 7% in 30 days to around $65,100.
- Short-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio; 1.0 means coins move at break-even) sits at 0.9997: the coins recent buyers are moving get spent at break-even.
History sets a higher bar. Using one regime marker, the 30-day average of Long-Term Holder SOPR (calculated from CryptoQuant's daily data) durably reclaiming 1.0, the last four bear markets ended in:
- April 2012: Supply in Profit at 69%
- November 2015: 64%
- May 2019: 83%
- April 2023: 77%
Every real exit came with a profit cushion of roughly 64% or more.
- This cycle already produced one failed attempt: from April 28 to June 1 the LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days, Supply in Profit reached 67%, and both rolled back over.
- Today that average sits at 0.86, below 1.0 for 51 straight days.
Who is selling: the caveat.
- Coins older than six months spiked to 12-16% of exchange inflows in early July, right as the bounce began, then faded to 0.8% this past week versus 5.6% the month before.
- Old hands fed exchanges on the first leg; that flow has dried up.
- The overhang sits in the middle: cohorts that bought between one month and two years ago, with cost basis (their average acquisition price) between roughly $72K and $101K, remain underwater.
Until Supply in Profit clears the mid-60s and a reclaim outlasts April's 35 days, probabilities favor a recovery inside a bear regime, not a confirmed exit.
Written by thechessONCHAIN

Data indicates that XRP deposits on Binance have fallen to approximately 328,300 transactions over the past 30 days, marking their lowest level in over two months. During the same period, withdrawals totaled around 361,000 transactions, resulting in net XRP transactions of approximately -32,700, also the lowest level in more than two months.
The decline in deposits suggests that fewer XRP tokens are being transferred to Binance, reducing the amount of the cryptocurrency readily available for trading or potential selling on the exchange. Meanwhile, withdrawals continue to outpace deposits, highlighting the ongoing movement of XRP from Binance to private wallets or cold storage solutions. This behavior is commonly associated with long-term holding rather than an intention to sell immediately.
The combination of weaker deposit activity and consistently higher withdrawals points to a potential reduction in selling pressure on the exchange. With fewer XRP deposits entering Binance, the available spot market supply may continue to tighten if this trend persists. At the same time, the sustained dominance of withdrawals reflects growing confidence among some investors in holding their XRP outside centralized exchanges, a pattern often interpreted as a constructive signal for the asset's longer-term outlook.
Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin's futures market is showing early signs of improving sentiment, as reflected in Binance's perpetual futures funding rates. After spending an extended period in negative territory, funding rates have recently returned to positive levels, suggesting that market sentiment is shifting away from excessive bearishness and that demand for long positions is gradually recovering.
However, it is still too early to declare the start of a full-fledged bull market. If funding rates rise too quickly, it may indicate that leverage is becoming overly concentrated on the long side while spot demand remains relatively weak. Such an imbalance between futures and spot markets could increase the risk of a long squeeze and short-term price volatility.
At this stage, the market appears to be undergoing a normalization process rather than entering an overheated rally. Investor sentiment has improved from the extreme pessimism seen in previous months, but a sustainable uptrend will likely require stronger spot buying, particularly through continued ETF inflows and broader institutional demand.
The recovery in funding rates is an encouraging signal, but investors should continue monitoring whether spot demand confirms the improving sentiment in the futures market. A healthy bull market ultimately depends on both derivatives and spot markets moving higher together.
Written by XWIN Japan

Nikkei’s July 24, 2026 morning edition cited my estimate that a Japanese spot Bitcoin ETF could grow to as much as approximately $18.4 billion by fiscal 2028.
This is not a guaranteed forecast. It is a bullish scenario based on Japan’s household financial assets, investment fund market, NISA participation, domestic crypto demand, and the growth of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Japan’s household financial assets total roughly $14.6 trillion. A $18.4 billion Bitcoin ETF market would represent only about 0.13% of that amount. It would also equal approximately 1% of Japan’s public equity investment fund market, which exceeds $1.8 trillion.
The estimate assumes three sources of demand: existing crypto investors, new retail investors using securities accounts, and allocations from wealthy individuals, corporations, and financial institutions.
The U.S. experience is instructive. Excluding GBTC, spot Bitcoin ETFs expanded their holdings to around one million BTC, demonstrating how ETFs can connect traditional finance with digital assets.
The key is access. A Japanese Bitcoin ETF could allow investors to gain exposure through familiar brokerage and custody systems. Therefore, $18.4 billion should be viewed as an achievable upper-end market scenario—not guaranteed first-year net inflows.
Written by XWIN Japan

Bitcoin closed at $66,077 on July 22, capping a quiet but steady climb from $62,259 a week earlier. Most of the recent tape looks orderly, but one metric breaks the calm: miner netflow.
On July 20, miner netflow spiked to 7.01—roughly ten times any other reading in the two-week window, where daily values otherwise hovered near zero or slightly negative. Notably, this single-day surge coincided with the largest Binance netflow outflow of the period (-9,030 BTC), suggesting a concentrated movement of coins rather than broad, sustained selling. Yet price didn’t break—BTC actually rose over the following two days to a local high of $66,520 on July 21.
This is the detail worth watching. A sharp miner flow event landing on the same day as a heavy Binance outflow would, in many past cycles, pressure price. Instead, the market absorbed it and continued higher. That kind of absorption can suggest demand sitting quietly beneath the surface, though a single instance isn’t confirmation of a trend.
The backdrop stays measured. Binance funding rates remain flat near 0.01 across the entire window, showing no sign of aggressive leverage chasing the move. The Coinbase Premium is mildly negative (-0.04 to -0.11), pointing to soft rather than absent US spot demand.
The takeaway isn’t a directional call. It’s an observation: a large, isolated supply event was met without a corresponding price break. Whether this reflects genuine underlying demand or simply thin summer conditions will become clearer if similar flow spikes appear and the market keeps holding. Worth tracking whether funding stays calm as price probes higher, or whether leverage eventually joins in.
Written by CryptoOnchain

XRP is showing a notable divergence between spot and derivatives activity, with buying pressure strengthening across spot markets while perpetual futures continue to reflect aggressive sell-side positioning.
On July 23, All CEX Estimated Spot CVD climbed to approximately $388.6 million, its highest reading since June 1, indicating a significant increase in net aggressive buying across centralized spot exchanges.
At the same time, Binance Perpetual CVD remained deeply negative at around -$547.4 million.
For comparison, its strongest reading during May was approximately -$5 million, highlighting how substantially derivatives taker activity has shifted toward the sell side.
The divergence becomes more important when combined with open interest.
XRP open interest on Binance increased from roughly $198 million on July 8 to $215.7 million on July 23, a rise of nearly 9%.
Rising open interest alongside strongly negative perpetual CVD is consistent with fresh leveraged sell-side exposure being added, rather than the movement being explained solely by the closure of existing long positions.
Open interest alone, however, cannot identify the direction of every newly opened position.
Spot trading activity also expanded across major exchanges. On July 21, Coinbase recorded approximately $157 million in XRP spot volume, compared with around $111 million on Binance, showing that the increase in spot-market participation was not concentrated on a single venue.
Taken together, the data reveal an increasingly clear split in XRP positioning: spot participants are showing stronger buying activity while leveraged traders remain heavily skewed toward selling, even as derivatives exposure expands.
Written by Amr Taha

Binance Pool is one of the largest BTC mining pools in the network. Therefore, the wallet activity of miners within the pool serves as an important leading indicator of the potential direction of new Bitcoin supply entering the market. The selling or accumulation behavior of large scale miners can often have a direct impact on the supply balance in the spot market.
In the current chart, the Miner Supply Ratio has declined to 0.00. The gradual decrease in this indicator over the past few months suggests that Binance Pool miners are holding onto their Bitcoin instead of sending it to exchanges. This indicates that the amount of newly circulating supply has weakened. Although this alone does not guarantee a price increase, it is considered a positive signal showing that selling pressure from miners has eased significantly.
Meanwhile, the Miner Netflow Total stands at -8.37 BTC. A negative netflow indicates that more BTC is leaving Binance Pool wallets than entering them. This suggests that miners are withdrawing their Bitcoin holdings or transferring them to long term storage wallets.
Historically, periods of negative netflow among miners have coincided with reduced miner driven selling pressure entering the market.
Another notable metric on the chart is the MVRV Ratio, which currently stands at 1.25. An MVRV above 1 indicates that investors, on average, remain above their cost basis and are still in profit. However, the fact that the indicator is trading at lower levels compared to previous months suggests that the market is not in an overvalued state.
In summary, there is no sign of selling activity from miners. On the contrary, the data indicates that miners are restricting BTC supply. This reduces selling pressure in the market, while the MVRV ratio of 1.25 also supports the view that BTC is not currently trading in an excessively overvalued zone. In other words, miners are exhibiting behavior that helps reduce selling pressure rather than increase it.
Written by PelinayPA

Ethereum data indicates that the 30-day simple moving average (SMA 30D) of funding rates for Ethereum perpetual contracts on Binance has risen to approximately 0.00339, its highest level in six months, coinciding with ETH trading near $1,920. This increase reflects a gradual improvement in trader sentiment, with continued strengthening of activity in the derivatives market.
The SMA reaching its highest level in six months suggests a gradual return of optimism among traders, accompanied by stronger demand for long positions compared to previous months. However, the market has not yet reached the elevated funding levels that often precede sharp corrections.
The data shows that the SMA had been trending lower over the past few months before stabilizing and gradually reversing upward, reaching its highest reading in six months. This shift coincides with Ethereum's price recovery and the market regaining much of its positive momentum, reflecting growing investor confidence in the continuation of the uptrend.
The rising moving average also indicates that traders are increasingly willing to pay the cost of maintaining long positions, reflecting stronger expectations for further price appreciation. At the same time, a continued rise in this indicator could signal increasing use of leverage in the market, potentially raising the risk of large-scale liquidations if Ethereum experiences a sudden price decline.
Written by Arab Chain

The Bitcoin Futures Volume Bubble Map shows a brief increase in trading activity as Bitcoin tested the $60,000 level in late June and early July 2026. Since then, the bubbles have shifted from red, indicating rising volume, back to gray as the price has recovered modestly. This suggests that the burst of futures activity near the recent low may be easing, with the market potentially moving away from heavy repositioning and into a more settled period of consolidation.
Written by nino

Bitcoin inflows from mid-size investors remained below or close to their June 22 readings across Binance, Coinbase, and Coinbase Prime on July 23.
Binance recorded 3,000 BTC, below its previous reading of 3,446 BTC.
Coinbase registered 2,600 BTC, close to the previous 2,170 BTC, while
Coinbase Prime posted 1,264 BTC, below its previous reading of 1,560 BTC.
Combined inflows reached 6,864 BTC, slightly below the 7,176 BTC recorded on June 22. The gap between Binance and Coinbase also narrowed from 1,276 BTC to 400 BTC, showing a more balanced distribution across the two exchanges.
Previous Bitcoin corrections in October 2025 and January 2026 coincided with sharp inflow spikes concentrated on a single platform.
The current readings show no similar surge, reducing the likelihood of an immediate repeat of that sell-side pattern.
With Bitcoin trading near $65,800, contained and distributed inflows suggest limited immediate selling pressure and support a more constructive short-term outlook.
Written by Amr Taha

BlackRock’s IBIT recorded approximately $557 million in positive netflows across four sessions between July 14 and July 21, pointing to renewed and increasingly consistent demand for Bitcoin exposure through the ETF.
The fund attracted about $155 million on July 14, followed by $131 million on July 17, $114 million on July 20, and $157 million on July 21. The latest three readings alone totaled roughly $402 million, while the July 21 inflow was the strongest of the four sessions.
Demand was not limited to IBIT. On July 20, 21Shares ARKB added approximately $70 million, bringing the combined positive flows into the two funds to around $184 million for the day.
The key signal is the repetition of positive readings rather than a single exceptional inflow.
Continued ETF demand at similar levels could provide an important indication of sustained institutional participation in Bitcoin.
Written by Amr Taha

Data shows that the 30-day Open Interest Z-Score for XRP futures on Binance has risen to approximately 1.60, coinciding with XRP trading near $1.14. Open interest reached approximately 440.6 million XRP, while its 30-day moving average increased to 418.5 million XRP, with a standard deviation of approximately 13.8 million XRP.
This increase in the Z-Score indicates that open interest has moved above its 30-day historical average, suggesting stronger trader participation in the derivatives market and a faster-than-usual return of leveraged activity. However, the current reading remains well below the levels recorded during the 2025 peak, when open interest exceeded 1 billion XRP and coincided with a significant price rally.
Meanwhile, the chart shows that XRP continues to trade within a relatively low range compared with previous highs, indicating that the recent increase in open interest has yet to translate into a decisive price breakout. This divergence often suggests that traders are building new positions while awaiting a catalyst capable of driving the market in a clearer direction.
If open interest continues to rise alongside higher prices, it could signal growing market confidence and sustained bullish momentum. Conversely, if open interest continues to increase while the price remains weak or begins to decline, it may indicate the buildup of highly leveraged speculative positions, increasing the risk of large-scale liquidations and heightened volatility in either direction
Written by Arab Chain

CryptoQuant's latest Binance on-chain data presents an interesting contrast. While daily Bitcoin inflows to Binance continue to fluctuate with occasional spikes, the 30-day Total Netflow remains close to or below neutral, indicating that withdrawals are largely offsetting deposits.
Large inflow spikes are often interpreted as potential selling pressure because investors typically move Bitcoin onto exchanges before trading. However, inflows alone do not tell the full story. The more important metric is netflow, which measures the balance between deposits and withdrawals.
The current chart shows that although Binance continues to receive Bitcoin deposits, sustained net inflows have weakened considerably compared with previous months. This suggests that much of the incoming BTC is either absorbed by market demand or followed by withdrawals into long-term custody.
As the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance serves as a key indicator of global market sentiment. A neutral or negative netflow generally reflects stronger holding behavior rather than aggressive selling, especially when Bitcoin prices remain stable or trend higher.
This divergence may indicate that investors are becoming more confident in Bitcoin's long-term outlook. Instead of preparing for large-scale distribution, many participants appear to be using Binance primarily for liquidity while continuing to reduce exchange-held balances.
Although short-term volatility remains possible whenever inflows spike, the broader picture does not currently point to persistent selling pressure. Investors should continue monitoring Binance's netflow alongside ETF flows, exchange reserves, and stablecoin liquidity to determine whether accumulation or distribution is becoming the dominant market trend.
Written by XWIN Japan

Bitcoin has rebounded to around $66,500, and market sentiment has improved significantly compared with June.
Several positive factors are supporting the recovery. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have shifted from persistent outflows to renewed inflows, signaling that institutional investors are gradually returning. At the same time, regulatory progress, including the CLARITY Act in the U.S. and recent legal reforms in Japan, has strengthened confidence in the long-term growth of digital assets. On-chain data also shows continued accumulation by long-term holders and large Bitcoin holders, while macro conditions have become more supportive as inflation concerns ease.
However, a higher price alone does not confirm the start of a new bull market.
Three on-chain indicators suggest that the recovery remains in its early stage.
First, Bitcoin Apparent Demand has improved from the severe demand deficit seen earlier this year, but it remains in negative territory, indicating that new capital inflows are still insufficient.
Second, Adjusted SOPR has recovered toward 1.0, suggesting that panic selling is fading and investor sentiment is improving. Even so, it has not consistently remained above 1.0, meaning confidence is still rebuilding.
Finally, Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) has turned slightly positive after months of loss realization. This reflects improving market psychology, but profit-taking remains far below levels typically seen during strong bull markets.
Taken together, these indicators suggest that Bitcoin has moved beyond the worst phase of the downturn. Nevertheless, sustainable demand has yet to fully return. The market is improving, but confirmation of a lasting bull cycle will depend on stronger capital inflows and continued on-chain strength.
Written by XWIN Japan

Something shifted on July 21. After two weeks of XRP grinding sideways between $1.07–$1.11, price broke to $1.143 the same day Binance saw over $2.35M in short liquidations — the largest single-day short wipeout in recent data, well above the July 13 long flush ($2.95M) that briefly pushed funding negative.
What stands out isn’t just the squeeze, but the backdrop. Binance spot activity has been thinning for weeks: inflows and outflows are both down roughly 98% vs. monthly and quarterly baselines, and deposit addresses have fallen over 96% in the same window. Meanwhile, Open Interest kept climbing — up 5.3% week-over-week to $428.9M — with leverage near the higher end of its recent range at 0.164.
In short, positioning has been building in a market where very little spot liquidity is changing hands. Rising leverage against a shrinking tradable float tends to make price more reactive to squeezes in either direction, since there’s little organic flow to absorb the move.
Adding to this, NVT has climbed 44.7% vs. the 3-month average while total transactions are down about 34% — valuation running ahead of network usage, not bearish alone, but worth watching if price keeps drifting up on thin volume.
None of this confirms a reversal. Funding stays modest (0.001), down 57.6% week-over-week though elevated vs. longer baselines, and price is still around 12.5% below its 3-month average. A leverage-fueled bounce alongside collapsing spot participation has historically been prone to reversing quickly. It’s worth watching whether spot inflows return to validate the move, or whether this proves to be another short-lived derivatives-driven spike.
Written by CryptoOnchain