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Binance Data Indicates Bitcoin Volatility Has Reached Its Highest Level Since 2022 As the Market ...
Bitcoin's volatility and price-range data on Binance accurately reflect the current market environment. With Bitcoin trading near $70,000, the seven-day annualized volatility reading is close to 1.51. This indicates that Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has risen to its highest level since 2022—a period historically associated with sharp structural shifts in the market and widespread deleveraging. Reaching these levels does not simply reflect a temporary increase in price fluctuations; rather, it suggests a transition from relative consolidation to a more volatile environment, often preceding large-scale repricing or a strong directional move.
Meanwhile, 30-day annualized volatility is hovering around 0.81, while 90-day annualized volatility is near 0.56. This downward gradient across timeframes suggests that recent sharp spikes have not yet developed into a sustained volatility regime and have instead remained confined to shorter bursts—a pattern often observed during consolidation or rebalancing phases.
In addition, the ATR reading as a percentage is around 0.075, a historically low level, indicating that the average daily trading range has narrowed compared with periods of panic or strong rallies. This contraction in the price range reflects reduced risk appetite among traders and a lower frequency of highly leveraged positioning.
From a structural perspective, such low-range environments often help establish a price base before a new trend emerges. At this stage, the market appears to be “gathering energy” after prolonged periods of sharp fluctuations, increasing the likelihood that the next expansion in volatility will be clearly directional—either upward or downward.
Written by Arab Chain
Meanwhile, 30-day annualized volatility is hovering around 0.81, while 90-day annualized volatility is near 0.56. This downward gradient across timeframes suggests that recent sharp spikes have not yet developed into a sustained volatility regime and have instead remained confined to shorter bursts—a pattern often observed during consolidation or rebalancing phases.
In addition, the ATR reading as a percentage is around 0.075, a historically low level, indicating that the average daily trading range has narrowed compared with periods of panic or strong rallies. This contraction in the price range reflects reduced risk appetite among traders and a lower frequency of highly leveraged positioning.
From a structural perspective, such low-range environments often help establish a price base before a new trend emerges. At this stage, the market appears to be “gathering energy” after prolonged periods of sharp fluctuations, increasing the likelihood that the next expansion in volatility will be clearly directional—either upward or downward.
Written by Arab Chain
Accumulating Address Insights - Ethereum ↓
Accumulating Address - Ethereum:
• No outflow in history.
• Last Inflow amount >= 100 ETH.
• Sum of inflow count >= 2.
• Balance >= 100 ETH.
• Have transaction in last 7 years.
• Not CEX address or miner address.
• Not Contract address.
These wallets currently hold 27M ETH. This represents approximately 23% of the total circulating supply.
Over the last 9 years, ETH has traded below the Realized Price of Accumulating Addresses only twice. The first time was during the 2025 ATL, and the second has been unfolding since January 2026.
Written by _OnChain
• No outflow in history.
• Last Inflow amount >= 100 ETH.
• Sum of inflow count >= 2.
• Balance >= 100 ETH.
• Have transaction in last 7 years.
• Not CEX address or miner address.
• Not Contract address.
These wallets currently hold 27M ETH. This represents approximately 23% of the total circulating supply.
Over the last 9 years, ETH has traded below the Realized Price of Accumulating Addresses only twice. The first time was during the 2025 ATL, and the second has been unfolding since January 2026.
Written by _OnChain
Bitcoin in Deep Value ↓
• Power Law Divergence (by Ben Sizelove): This indicator reflects how far BTC’s price is from its long-term trend. Positive values indicate overextension, while negative values indicate undervaluation.
• In the latest market drop, it reached -95.
• The last time this happened after an ATH was in November 2022.
Written by _OnChain
• In the latest market drop, it reached -95.
• The last time this happened after an ATH was in November 2022.
Written by _OnChain
U.S. Consumer Slowdown and Coinbase Premium: Defining Bitcoin’s Current Market Phase (Analysis Re...
U.S. retail sales for December fell short of expectations in both the core measure and the retail control group, signaling a clear deceleration in consumer spending—the backbone of the economy. This appears less like short-term noise and more like a potential turning point in the business cycle.
Bitcoin is currently best described as being in a “corrective phase within a broader bearish trend.” Directionally, bearish forces remain conditionally dominant, though the assessment is sensitive to shifts in financial conditions and capital flows.
Macro data point to simultaneous slowdowns in consumption and wages. The downside surprise in retail sales raises risks to corporate revenues and employment, while the Employment Cost Index (ECI) also undershot expectations, indicating easing wage inflation. This combination makes the Federal Reserve more attentive to growth risks, while keeping pressure on risk assets amid slowing growth.
Manufacturing employment continues its long-term decline, suggesting recessionary conditions in a cyclical sector. Taken together, consumption, wages, and manufacturing imply a phase of disinflation alongside slowing growth.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to short-term risk-off moves, similar to equities, even as expectations of future easing can spark rebounds. The quality of those rebounds is key. Since late 2025, the Coinbase Premium Gap has remained persistently negative, signaling weak U.S. spot demand and price action driven largely by derivatives. In prior bull-market onsets, this premium stabilized in positive territory—conditions not yet met today.
The base case is a demand-verification phase under macro slowdown. However, sustained improvement in U.S. spot demand—via ETF inflows and a positive Coinbase Premium—would warrant revisiting this view.
Written by XWIN Research Japan
Bitcoin is currently best described as being in a “corrective phase within a broader bearish trend.” Directionally, bearish forces remain conditionally dominant, though the assessment is sensitive to shifts in financial conditions and capital flows.
Macro data point to simultaneous slowdowns in consumption and wages. The downside surprise in retail sales raises risks to corporate revenues and employment, while the Employment Cost Index (ECI) also undershot expectations, indicating easing wage inflation. This combination makes the Federal Reserve more attentive to growth risks, while keeping pressure on risk assets amid slowing growth.
Manufacturing employment continues its long-term decline, suggesting recessionary conditions in a cyclical sector. Taken together, consumption, wages, and manufacturing imply a phase of disinflation alongside slowing growth.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to short-term risk-off moves, similar to equities, even as expectations of future easing can spark rebounds. The quality of those rebounds is key. Since late 2025, the Coinbase Premium Gap has remained persistently negative, signaling weak U.S. spot demand and price action driven largely by derivatives. In prior bull-market onsets, this premium stabilized in positive territory—conditions not yet met today.
The base case is a demand-verification phase under macro slowdown. However, sustained improvement in U.S. spot demand—via ETF inflows and a positive Coinbase Premium—would warrant revisiting this view.
Written by XWIN Research Japan
Diverging Stablecoin Trends Emerge Amid Bitcoin’s Sharp Correction
In a still challenging market environment, Bitcoin continues its correction and has recently exceeded a 50% drawdown, marking the deepest pullback observed since the start of this cycle.
Despite this sharp decline, stablecoin netflow data shows continued investor engagement during this phase.
On a monthly average basis, across all exchanges, ERC 20 stablecoin netflows moved from -$87.9 million on December 1 to around -$134.3 million today. In other words, net stablecoin outflows from exchanges have intensified, signaling a form of broad de-risking.
This pattern is not uniform across exchanges. CeFi platforms like Nexo are showing the opposite trend, potentially indicating more selective capital deployment.
On December 1, average monthly stablecoin outflows stood at about -$5.8 million as Bitcoin’s correction was accelerating. As the downturn continued, flows reversed, and stablecoin netflows on Nexo turned positive, now reaching roughly $1.8 million.
Part of these inflows likely went toward spot exposure, but not exclusively. On Nexo, stablecoins also enable investors to deploy yield-generating strategies and diversify their positions despite a difficult market phase.
Stablecoins now account for a larger share of borrowing collateral on Nexo, rising from 1.8% to 3.3% since July 2025.
This shift reflects their growing use as collateral in yield strategies.
Written by Darkfost
Despite this sharp decline, stablecoin netflow data shows continued investor engagement during this phase.
On a monthly average basis, across all exchanges, ERC 20 stablecoin netflows moved from -$87.9 million on December 1 to around -$134.3 million today. In other words, net stablecoin outflows from exchanges have intensified, signaling a form of broad de-risking.
This pattern is not uniform across exchanges. CeFi platforms like Nexo are showing the opposite trend, potentially indicating more selective capital deployment.
On December 1, average monthly stablecoin outflows stood at about -$5.8 million as Bitcoin’s correction was accelerating. As the downturn continued, flows reversed, and stablecoin netflows on Nexo turned positive, now reaching roughly $1.8 million.
Part of these inflows likely went toward spot exposure, but not exclusively. On Nexo, stablecoins also enable investors to deploy yield-generating strategies and diversify their positions despite a difficult market phase.
Stablecoins now account for a larger share of borrowing collateral on Nexo, rising from 1.8% to 3.3% since July 2025.
This shift reflects their growing use as collateral in yield strategies.
Written by Darkfost
The Great Rotation: How Whales Absorbed the Double Capitulation
On-chain data confirms that the "Double Capitulation" of Short-Term Holders (STH) and Miners was structurally absorbed by medium-to-large whales.
1. Double Capitulation (Sell-side)
On Feb 5th, a systemic "clean-out" of weak hands occurred as Bitcoin prices dipped into the low $60K range. The Miners' Position Index (MPI) spiked violently to 2.95, confirming aggressive liquidations by miners to cover operational costs during the plunge. Simultaneously, the STH Realized Price (weighted average of holders <155 days) stood at $92,009, placing recent buyers in a severe "underwater" position where the STH SOPR at 0.977 proved they realized significant losses.
2. The Absorption: Strategic Whale Accumulation (Buy-side)
This supply was absorbed into large-scale, off-exchange wallets. Whales holding 100–1,000 BTC dominated the market, accounting for 77% of the total inflow dominance during the dip. According to the LTH Realized Cap Change (7d) data, Long-Term Holders showed strong conviction by adding over $5.68B (Feb 5) and maintaining a positive change of $1.88B by Feb 10. This steady capital inflow from LTHs near the $69K level established strong downward price rigidity.
3. Conclusion
While the immediate panic has subsided with MPI collapsing to -1.31, the market is not entirely out of the woods. The Hashprice recovered from its Feb 5th low to 0.035 on Feb 9th 📈, but it remains significantly below the 365-day moving average (0.048). This indicates that miners are still operating under strained profitability, meaning the risk of further sell-side pressure persists if prices remain stagnant. Although a "Supply Shock" is primed due to whale absorption, the $91,855 STH Cost Basis and low miner revenue suggest a cautious outlook is required until a decisive demand catalyst emerges.
Written by Easy On Chain
1. Double Capitulation (Sell-side)
On Feb 5th, a systemic "clean-out" of weak hands occurred as Bitcoin prices dipped into the low $60K range. The Miners' Position Index (MPI) spiked violently to 2.95, confirming aggressive liquidations by miners to cover operational costs during the plunge. Simultaneously, the STH Realized Price (weighted average of holders <155 days) stood at $92,009, placing recent buyers in a severe "underwater" position where the STH SOPR at 0.977 proved they realized significant losses.
2. The Absorption: Strategic Whale Accumulation (Buy-side)
This supply was absorbed into large-scale, off-exchange wallets. Whales holding 100–1,000 BTC dominated the market, accounting for 77% of the total inflow dominance during the dip. According to the LTH Realized Cap Change (7d) data, Long-Term Holders showed strong conviction by adding over $5.68B (Feb 5) and maintaining a positive change of $1.88B by Feb 10. This steady capital inflow from LTHs near the $69K level established strong downward price rigidity.
3. Conclusion
While the immediate panic has subsided with MPI collapsing to -1.31, the market is not entirely out of the woods. The Hashprice recovered from its Feb 5th low to 0.035 on Feb 9th 📈, but it remains significantly below the 365-day moving average (0.048). This indicates that miners are still operating under strained profitability, meaning the risk of further sell-side pressure persists if prices remain stagnant. Although a "Supply Shock" is primed due to whale absorption, the $91,855 STH Cost Basis and low miner revenue suggest a cautious outlook is required until a decisive demand catalyst emerges.
Written by Easy On Chain
Decline in XRP Futures Open Interest Signals a Rebalancing Phase in the Derivatives Market
Data on the 30-day change in XRP open interest denominated in XRP units presents a clear picture of a significant shift in the derivatives market structure. Most major exchanges are currently recording negative readings, reflecting a broad wave of deleveraging and position closures rather than the opening of new positions. This behavior points to growing caution among traders following periods of price volatility and an unclear broader trend.
According to the latest readings, Binance has recorded a decline of around -1.6 billion XRP in open interest over the past 30 days, while losses on Bybit reached approximately -1.8 billion XRP, and Kraken posted close to -1.5 billion XRP. Meanwhile, OKX shows a smaller decline of about -446 million XRP, with BitMEX remaining relatively low near -36 million XRP. These figures indicate that the majority of position reductions have occurred on the most liquid exchanges, giving them greater influence over the overall market structure.
From a behavioral perspective, this contraction in open interest suggests that traders are prioritizing risk reduction rather than betting on strong directional moves. Such a pattern is commonly observed during transitional phases of the market, whether ahead of local bottom formation or before the emergence of a new directional trend. Instead of accumulating highly leveraged speculative positions, the market is gradually shifting toward a calmer environment with lower reliance on leverage.
Written by Arab Chain
According to the latest readings, Binance has recorded a decline of around -1.6 billion XRP in open interest over the past 30 days, while losses on Bybit reached approximately -1.8 billion XRP, and Kraken posted close to -1.5 billion XRP. Meanwhile, OKX shows a smaller decline of about -446 million XRP, with BitMEX remaining relatively low near -36 million XRP. These figures indicate that the majority of position reductions have occurred on the most liquid exchanges, giving them greater influence over the overall market structure.
From a behavioral perspective, this contraction in open interest suggests that traders are prioritizing risk reduction rather than betting on strong directional moves. Such a pattern is commonly observed during transitional phases of the market, whether ahead of local bottom formation or before the emergence of a new directional trend. Instead of accumulating highly leveraged speculative positions, the market is gradually shifting toward a calmer environment with lower reliance on leverage.
Written by Arab Chain
Bearish Market Withdrawals or Binance FUD? Let's Look At What the Data Actually Says
Everyone blamed Binance FUD, but Exchange data reveals something different. This is market-wide bearish withdrawal, and Binance is handling it better than most exchanges.
Between January and February 2026, the crypto exchange ecosystem experienced massive withdrawals. Over 78 percent of all exchanges showed net outflows. The numbers tell the story social media missed.
Binance saw withdrawals increase from 420 million dollars on January 12th to 5.94 billion dollars by February 9th. Their withdrawal to deposit ratio hit 4.65, meaning users pulled out nearly five times more than they deposited. That sounds catastrophic until you check the broader market.
The market average withdrawal ratio was 5.71 across all exchanges. Binance's 4.65 ratio is actually below average. The median exchange showed 1.67 in withdrawals for every dollar deposited. This proves the entire market is experiencing bearish pressure.
Total exchange inflows reached 445 billion dollars in February while outflows hit 456 billion dollars. The market shed nearly 11 billion collectively. Binance's 5.94 billion in outflows against total market loss of 11 billion shows their 21.96 percent market share lines up with their proportion of outflows.
On January 12th, 92 percent of exchanges recorded net outflows. By February 9th this dropped to 78 percent but remained severely bearish. During bear markets, users move funds to cold storage wallets. The blockchain confirms this pattern across the industry.
Only seventeen exchanges showed positive inflows on February 9th out of eighty platforms. Bitfinex led with 1.33 billion in net positive flows. These exceptions prove bearish markets create widespread exchange withdrawals regardless of platform reputation.
Written by Crazzyblockk
Between January and February 2026, the crypto exchange ecosystem experienced massive withdrawals. Over 78 percent of all exchanges showed net outflows. The numbers tell the story social media missed.
Binance saw withdrawals increase from 420 million dollars on January 12th to 5.94 billion dollars by February 9th. Their withdrawal to deposit ratio hit 4.65, meaning users pulled out nearly five times more than they deposited. That sounds catastrophic until you check the broader market.
The market average withdrawal ratio was 5.71 across all exchanges. Binance's 4.65 ratio is actually below average. The median exchange showed 1.67 in withdrawals for every dollar deposited. This proves the entire market is experiencing bearish pressure.
Total exchange inflows reached 445 billion dollars in February while outflows hit 456 billion dollars. The market shed nearly 11 billion collectively. Binance's 5.94 billion in outflows against total market loss of 11 billion shows their 21.96 percent market share lines up with their proportion of outflows.
On January 12th, 92 percent of exchanges recorded net outflows. By February 9th this dropped to 78 percent but remained severely bearish. During bear markets, users move funds to cold storage wallets. The blockchain confirms this pattern across the industry.
Only seventeen exchanges showed positive inflows on February 9th out of eighty platforms. Bitfinex led with 1.33 billion in net positive flows. These exceptions prove bearish markets create widespread exchange withdrawals regardless of platform reputation.
Written by Crazzyblockk
Ethereum Has Fallen Below the Realized Price of the Accumulation Addresses, but Whales Continue t...
The full-scale accumulation of $ETH by whales began in June 2025.
The current price is below the price at which they began accumulating. Furthermore, their accumulation is proceeding even more aggressive.
The current price will likely appear attractive to $ETH whales.
Written by CW8900
The current price is below the price at which they began accumulating. Furthermore, their accumulation is proceeding even more aggressive.
The current price will likely appear attractive to $ETH whales.
Written by CW8900
Bitcoin: Lack of Fresh Capital Reinforces Bear Conditions
Bitcoin: New investor inflows have flipped negative. The sell-off is not being absorbed by fresh capital.
📊 Current State:
• 30-day flow: −$2.6B (cumulative)
• Dips are not attracting new participants
• Historical inflow spikes seen during uptrends are absent
📌 Context:
In bull markets, drawdowns attract accelerating capital. In early bear markets, weakness triggers withdrawal. Current readings resemble post-ATH transitions, in which marginal buyers exit and price is driven by internal rotation, not net inflows.
💬 Comment:
Without renewed inflows, upside moves remain corrective. This behavior is consistent with early bear market conditions: contracting liquidity and narrowing participation.
Written by IT Tech
📊 Current State:
• 30-day flow: −$2.6B (cumulative)
• Dips are not attracting new participants
• Historical inflow spikes seen during uptrends are absent
📌 Context:
In bull markets, drawdowns attract accelerating capital. In early bear markets, weakness triggers withdrawal. Current readings resemble post-ATH transitions, in which marginal buyers exit and price is driven by internal rotation, not net inflows.
💬 Comment:
Without renewed inflows, upside moves remain corrective. This behavior is consistent with early bear market conditions: contracting liquidity and narrowing participation.
Written by IT Tech
Rising Long-Term Holder Spending Meets Fading Demand - Bitcoin Enters Redistribution Territory
On-chain data is beginning to reflect a structural shift as Long-Term Holder (LTH) spending accelerates sharply. The 30-day cumulative outflow from this cohort has climbed toward cycle highs, a pattern historically associated with late-stage bullish environments. Rather than accumulating, seasoned investors appear to be distributing into market strength, transferring supply to newer participants as price trades near elevated levels.
What makes the current setup more nuanced is the simultaneous deterioration in Apparent Demand Growth. Despite the increase in coins being spent, fresh capital inflows are not expanding at the same pace. Demand has slipped into negative territory, signaling that the market’s ability to absorb distributed supply is weakening. Similar divergences in prior cycles often marked transition phases where bullish momentum slowed before either consolidation or correction unfolded.
Demand Momentum further reinforces this cooling dynamic. After multiple strong positive expansions throughout the 2024–2025 rally, momentum has now rolled over decisively. This shift reflects softening spot absorption and a slowdown in marginal buyer aggression key forces that previously sustained upside continuation.
From a macro on-chain lens, the market is not yet signaling a confirmed cycle top, but conditions are clearly evolving. Elevated LTH spending paired with weakening demand momentum points to redistribution rather than fresh accumulation. For bullish structure to remain intact, demand metrics must stabilize and re-expand to absorb ongoing supply.
Until that occurs, Bitcoin is likely to face heightened volatility, with distribution pressure acting as a near-term headwind while the market searches for its next equilibrium.
Written by CryptoZeno
What makes the current setup more nuanced is the simultaneous deterioration in Apparent Demand Growth. Despite the increase in coins being spent, fresh capital inflows are not expanding at the same pace. Demand has slipped into negative territory, signaling that the market’s ability to absorb distributed supply is weakening. Similar divergences in prior cycles often marked transition phases where bullish momentum slowed before either consolidation or correction unfolded.
Demand Momentum further reinforces this cooling dynamic. After multiple strong positive expansions throughout the 2024–2025 rally, momentum has now rolled over decisively. This shift reflects softening spot absorption and a slowdown in marginal buyer aggression key forces that previously sustained upside continuation.
From a macro on-chain lens, the market is not yet signaling a confirmed cycle top, but conditions are clearly evolving. Elevated LTH spending paired with weakening demand momentum points to redistribution rather than fresh accumulation. For bullish structure to remain intact, demand metrics must stabilize and re-expand to absorb ongoing supply.
Until that occurs, Bitcoin is likely to face heightened volatility, with distribution pressure acting as a near-term headwind while the market searches for its next equilibrium.
Written by CryptoZeno
Fading Buying Power: USDT Reserves Plunge From December Levels
Recent on-chain data reveals a concerning trend regarding market liquidity. The Tether USD (ERC20) Exchange Reserve across all exchanges has dropped significantly since late December, returning to levels last seen in October. This depletion of stablecoin liquidity coincides with Bitcoin’s price correction, signaling a reduction in immediate buying power.
Key Data Points:
Decline since Dec 30: Total USDT (ERC20) reserves on exchanges have plummeted from the ~$60B level on December 30th to approximately $53B currently.
Binance Outflows: Binance indicates a significant portion of this movement, with its USDT reserves falling from ~$43B to ~$38B.
Market Implications:
This massive outflow of over $7B in stablecoins has occurred parallel to Bitcoin’s correction from ~$93k to $69k.
Typically, during a healthy dip, we expect stablecoin reserves to remain high or increase as traders wait to “buy the dip.” However, the simultaneous drop in both BTC price and USDT reserves suggests capital flight. Investors appear to be withdrawing liquidity from exchanges entirely (likely to fiat or DeFi) rather than keeping dry powder ready on exchanges.
Conclusion:
Stablecoin reserves represent the “fuel” needed for the next leg up. The current trend suggests a lack of aggressive buy-side demand at current levels. For a sustainable market reversal, we need to see a return of USDT inflows to exchanges, rebuilding the purchasing power required to absorb the selling pressure.
Written by CryptoOnchain
Key Data Points:
Decline since Dec 30: Total USDT (ERC20) reserves on exchanges have plummeted from the ~$60B level on December 30th to approximately $53B currently.
Binance Outflows: Binance indicates a significant portion of this movement, with its USDT reserves falling from ~$43B to ~$38B.
Market Implications:
This massive outflow of over $7B in stablecoins has occurred parallel to Bitcoin’s correction from ~$93k to $69k.
Typically, during a healthy dip, we expect stablecoin reserves to remain high or increase as traders wait to “buy the dip.” However, the simultaneous drop in both BTC price and USDT reserves suggests capital flight. Investors appear to be withdrawing liquidity from exchanges entirely (likely to fiat or DeFi) rather than keeping dry powder ready on exchanges.
Conclusion:
Stablecoin reserves represent the “fuel” needed for the next leg up. The current trend suggests a lack of aggressive buy-side demand at current levels. For a sustainable market reversal, we need to see a return of USDT inflows to exchanges, rebuilding the purchasing power required to absorb the selling pressure.
Written by CryptoOnchain
Bitcoin: : Will the Massive Drop in Exchange Reserves Trigger Another Rally?
Long-term on-chain data highlights a persistent and significant decline in Bitcoin Exchange Reserves, which have now hit multi-year lows around 2.74M BTC. Does this signal an impending price surge?
Historical Context:
History suggests that major depletions in exchange supply often precede bullish price action:
March – Nov 2020: Reserves dropped from 3.27M to 2.9M. This reduction in sell-side liquidity helped fuel the massive bull run of 2021.
Nov 2022: We witnessed a parabolic drop where reserves plummeted from 3.52M to ~3M in a matter of days. This capitulation marked the cycle bottom, followed by a price recovery.
Current Outlook:
We are currently witnessing a similar macro trend. Over the past two years, total exchange reserves have drained significantly, falling from roughly 3.2M to the current level of 2.74M.
Conclusion:
This consistent decline indicates that investors are moving coins to cold storage, effectively removing liquid supply from the market. With exchange balances at such low levels, a potential “Supply Shock” is forming. If history is any guide, this reduction in available supply creates a highly bullish setup for price appreciation, provided demand remains steady.
Written by CryptoOnchain
Historical Context:
History suggests that major depletions in exchange supply often precede bullish price action:
March – Nov 2020: Reserves dropped from 3.27M to 2.9M. This reduction in sell-side liquidity helped fuel the massive bull run of 2021.
Nov 2022: We witnessed a parabolic drop where reserves plummeted from 3.52M to ~3M in a matter of days. This capitulation marked the cycle bottom, followed by a price recovery.
Current Outlook:
We are currently witnessing a similar macro trend. Over the past two years, total exchange reserves have drained significantly, falling from roughly 3.2M to the current level of 2.74M.
Conclusion:
This consistent decline indicates that investors are moving coins to cold storage, effectively removing liquid supply from the market. With exchange balances at such low levels, a potential “Supply Shock” is forming. If history is any guide, this reduction in available supply creates a highly bullish setup for price appreciation, provided demand remains steady.
Written by CryptoOnchain
Rising Ethereum Withdrawals From Exchanges Reach Their Highest Level Since October
Ethereum exchange netflow data over the past few days indicates a clear acceleration in withdrawal activity from exchanges, signaling a notable shift in investor behavior toward reducing the amount of supply available for selling.
Across all exchanges, net Ethereum outflows have exceeded 220,000 ETH, marking the highest level of withdrawals since last October. This elevated volume reflects a strong wave of ETH being transferred to private wallets or long-term storage protocols, a pattern that is often associated with accumulation phases or risk-reduction behavior.
On Binance, daily net outflows reached approximately -158,000 ETH on February 5, the largest since last August, confirming that a substantial portion of the recent outflows has been concentrated on the exchange with the deepest liquidity.
From a price perspective, these strong outflows coincided with Ethereum trading near the $1,800–$2,000 range, suggesting that some investors are treating these levels as attractive zones for holding or repositioning, particularly following the recent market pullback.
The continued outflow of Ethereum from exchanges at this scale reduces immediate selling pressure and is considered a structurally supportive factor for price in the near term, especially if it is accompanied by stabilization or improvement in market momentum.
Written by Arab Chain
Across all exchanges, net Ethereum outflows have exceeded 220,000 ETH, marking the highest level of withdrawals since last October. This elevated volume reflects a strong wave of ETH being transferred to private wallets or long-term storage protocols, a pattern that is often associated with accumulation phases or risk-reduction behavior.
On Binance, daily net outflows reached approximately -158,000 ETH on February 5, the largest since last August, confirming that a substantial portion of the recent outflows has been concentrated on the exchange with the deepest liquidity.
From a price perspective, these strong outflows coincided with Ethereum trading near the $1,800–$2,000 range, suggesting that some investors are treating these levels as attractive zones for holding or repositioning, particularly following the recent market pullback.
The continued outflow of Ethereum from exchanges at this scale reduces immediate selling pressure and is considered a structurally supportive factor for price in the near term, especially if it is accompanied by stabilization or improvement in market momentum.
Written by Arab Chain
What Binance Whale Activity & US ETF Outflows Are Telling Us About Bitcoin
📰 Daily Market Update:
two key on-chain and market structure indicators that may have a significant impact on BTC short- to mid-term price action.
📊 BTC: Whale (>1K) to Binance Inflow
This chart tracks BTC transfers from wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC into Binance.
📈 Blue spikes represent large inflows of BTC sent by whales directly to Binance.
📈 The chart highlights the second daily inflow exceeding 5,000 BTC on Feb 9.
📈 The first similar inflow occurred on Feb 2, when more than 5,000 BTC were sent to Binance.
📉 That inflow coincided with Bitcoin dropping from $77k → below $70k by Feb 6.
This makes February especially important, as two similarly large whale inflows occurred within just 7 days, a rare event.
📊 Bitcoin + US Spot ETF Flows + Liquidity Impulse
This chart monitors the total amount of Bitcoin held by all US Spot Bitcoin ETFs combined, which represents cumulative institutional demand.
The yellow line reflects total ETF holdings (BTC).
🔬 Key Observation
🚀 Total ETF holdings peaked at around 1.36 million BTC in mid-October 2025, coinciding with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high above $126k.
📉 Since then, ETF holdings have been steadily declining.
📉 On February 9, total holdings dropped to around 1.27 million BTC, while Bitcoin price fell to below $71k.
📈 This means roughly 90,000 BTC exited US Spot ETFs, representing about 6.6% of total ETF holdings over the past months.
📉 This reduction in ETF reserves aligns with Bitcoin’s slide below $71k, showing waning institutional appetite.
🧠 Final Conclusion
⏲️ Historically, when whale wallets move large amounts of Bitcoin to spot exchanges like Binance, it is often interpreted as distribution behavior.
At the same time, declining ETF holdings confirm that institutions are reducing exposure.
⏲️ This does not guarantee an immediate crash, but it raises caution flags for aggressive long positioning and suggests that upside may remain limited unless liquidity conditions improve.
Written by Amr Taha
two key on-chain and market structure indicators that may have a significant impact on BTC short- to mid-term price action.
📊 BTC: Whale (>1K) to Binance Inflow
This chart tracks BTC transfers from wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC into Binance.
📈 Blue spikes represent large inflows of BTC sent by whales directly to Binance.
📈 The chart highlights the second daily inflow exceeding 5,000 BTC on Feb 9.
📈 The first similar inflow occurred on Feb 2, when more than 5,000 BTC were sent to Binance.
📉 That inflow coincided with Bitcoin dropping from $77k → below $70k by Feb 6.
This makes February especially important, as two similarly large whale inflows occurred within just 7 days, a rare event.
📊 Bitcoin + US Spot ETF Flows + Liquidity Impulse
This chart monitors the total amount of Bitcoin held by all US Spot Bitcoin ETFs combined, which represents cumulative institutional demand.
The yellow line reflects total ETF holdings (BTC).
🔬 Key Observation
🚀 Total ETF holdings peaked at around 1.36 million BTC in mid-October 2025, coinciding with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high above $126k.
📉 Since then, ETF holdings have been steadily declining.
📉 On February 9, total holdings dropped to around 1.27 million BTC, while Bitcoin price fell to below $71k.
📈 This means roughly 90,000 BTC exited US Spot ETFs, representing about 6.6% of total ETF holdings over the past months.
📉 This reduction in ETF reserves aligns with Bitcoin’s slide below $71k, showing waning institutional appetite.
🧠 Final Conclusion
⏲️ Historically, when whale wallets move large amounts of Bitcoin to spot exchanges like Binance, it is often interpreted as distribution behavior.
At the same time, declining ETF holdings confirm that institutions are reducing exposure.
⏲️ This does not guarantee an immediate crash, but it raises caution flags for aggressive long positioning and suggests that upside may remain limited unless liquidity conditions improve.
Written by Amr Taha
“Still, the Market Wants to Believe It’s Not Winter — How Rising Prices Are Masking a Quiet Shift...
This article examines the current Bitcoin market through the lens of a simple question: could Bitcoin be entering a new “winter phase”? The base assessment is that the market is no longer just a healthy pullback within a bull trend, but structurally closer to the early stage of winter, or a re-entry into it. Directionally, and only conditionally, downside pressure appears slightly dominant.
This view is not widely shared for clear reasons. Many participants psychologically want to believe that “this is not winter,” especially given fresh memories of 2022. In addition, the nominal price level remains far higher than during the prior winter, reinforcing the perception that conditions are fundamentally different. Bitcoin has also become structurally stronger through spot ETFs, institutional adoption, and improved infrastructure, making a repeat of past winters feel unlikely.
However, winter is defined not by price levels, but by shifts in supply-demand dynamics, capital flows, and sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 14 (Extreme Fear), indicating that sentiment has already deteriorated sharply despite elevated prices. This pattern aligns with past cycles, where psychology weakened before price fully adjusted.
Flow data reinforces this view. In 2024, $10B of inflows expanded market capitalization, while in 2025, over $300B of inflows coincided with a decline in market cap—suggesting persistent structural selling pressure. On-chain profit metrics also show declining realized gains despite high prices, signaling weakening internal momentum.
The base scenario is that Bitcoin may already be entering winter, with higher prices and stronger structure delaying recognition. That view should be reassessed if ETF inflows stabilize and on-chain distribution clearly subsides.
Written by XWIN Research Japan
This view is not widely shared for clear reasons. Many participants psychologically want to believe that “this is not winter,” especially given fresh memories of 2022. In addition, the nominal price level remains far higher than during the prior winter, reinforcing the perception that conditions are fundamentally different. Bitcoin has also become structurally stronger through spot ETFs, institutional adoption, and improved infrastructure, making a repeat of past winters feel unlikely.
However, winter is defined not by price levels, but by shifts in supply-demand dynamics, capital flows, and sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 14 (Extreme Fear), indicating that sentiment has already deteriorated sharply despite elevated prices. This pattern aligns with past cycles, where psychology weakened before price fully adjusted.
Flow data reinforces this view. In 2024, $10B of inflows expanded market capitalization, while in 2025, over $300B of inflows coincided with a decline in market cap—suggesting persistent structural selling pressure. On-chain profit metrics also show declining realized gains despite high prices, signaling weakening internal momentum.
The base scenario is that Bitcoin may already be entering winter, with higher prices and stronger structure delaying recognition. That view should be reassessed if ETF inflows stabilize and on-chain distribution clearly subsides.
Written by XWIN Research Japan
Whales (100-1k BTC) - Realized Price ↓
• During the latest market drop, BTC traded below the Realized Price of whales holding between 100 and 1k BTC ($7-70M at current prices). According to the most recent data, this RP currently stands at $69K.
• For reference: The last time this occurred after an ATH was in June 2022, when price traded below it for roughly seven months.
Written by _OnChain
• For reference: The last time this occurred after an ATH was in June 2022, when price traded below it for roughly seven months.
Written by _OnChain
Bitcoin Divergence Deepens As Dolphin Holdings Rise While Demand Growth Breaks Down
Bitcoin on-chain structure is showing a clear divergence between mid-sized holder positioning and broader market demand. Dolphin cohorts continue expanding their total BTC balances, with holdings recently pressing toward new cycle highs despite weakening price momentum. The 30-day change in balances remains structurally positive, reinforcing that this group is still absorbing supply rather than distributing into strength.
However, the pace of accumulation is beginning to moderate. Monthly percentage change across Dolphin holdings has started to compress, signaling that while balances continue rising, the intensity of buying is slowing. This transition typically emerges during consolidation phases, when cohorts shift from aggressive expansion into more passive absorption while awaiting renewed market catalysts.
Demand conditions, in contrast, have deteriorated far more sharply. Apparent Demand (30-day) spiked aggressively during the last impulsive rally but has since reversed deeply into negative territory. The scale of this drawdown reflects a material cooldown in spot absorption, suggesting recent inflows were not sustained long enough to maintain upside continuation.
Breaking demand into structural components reinforces this slowdown. ETF inflows, which previously acted as a dominant marginal bid, have flattened, while Strategy-related accumulation has also stabilized after earlier bursts of expansion. With institutional demand no longer accelerating, the divergence between ongoing Dolphin accumulation and weakening aggregate demand creates a transitional market structure where supply is absorbed, but upside momentum remains capped until demand growth reaccelerates.
Written by CryptoZeno
However, the pace of accumulation is beginning to moderate. Monthly percentage change across Dolphin holdings has started to compress, signaling that while balances continue rising, the intensity of buying is slowing. This transition typically emerges during consolidation phases, when cohorts shift from aggressive expansion into more passive absorption while awaiting renewed market catalysts.
Demand conditions, in contrast, have deteriorated far more sharply. Apparent Demand (30-day) spiked aggressively during the last impulsive rally but has since reversed deeply into negative territory. The scale of this drawdown reflects a material cooldown in spot absorption, suggesting recent inflows were not sustained long enough to maintain upside continuation.
Breaking demand into structural components reinforces this slowdown. ETF inflows, which previously acted as a dominant marginal bid, have flattened, while Strategy-related accumulation has also stabilized after earlier bursts of expansion. With institutional demand no longer accelerating, the divergence between ongoing Dolphin accumulation and weakening aggregate demand creates a transitional market structure where supply is absorbed, but upside momentum remains capped until demand growth reaccelerates.
Written by CryptoZeno
Binance ETH Derivatives Show Long Bias – Risk Ahead?
📰 Daily Market Update:
The following analysis combines Binance derivatives positioning data with Ethereum on-chain revenue metrics
📊 ETH: Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume / OI [USD] 24H
📉 Ethereum Open Interest on Binance dropped significantly from 8B to 3.9B
📉 The decline started around January 14 and continued until the time of writing
📉 This represents a nearly 50% reduction in total outstanding derivative contracts
📈 Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) Surge Since February 4
📈 Focusing on the period starting February 4, CVD increased from $2.4 billion to $4.15 billion
⚠️ This means most of the closed positions were shorts, while long positions stayed open.
⚠️ This type of positioning often reflects excessive optimism, especially when driven by derivatives .
📊 Daily Blockchain Total Revenue by Chain-All Protocols
The second chart tracks daily total blockchain revenue across multiple networks,
🔬 Ethereum’s total revenue mainly comes from Gas Fees, which users pay for:
* Transferring ETH between wallets
* Swaps on decentralized exchanges
* Interacting with smart contracts (DeFi lending, NFTs, etc.)
* Liquidations, which spike during volatile or falling markets
The chart shows a sudden spike in Ethereum daily revenue, reaching levels close to $6M per day.
🔬 Key Revenue Events:
📅 February 6: Ethereum revenue surged to $5.8M
📅 Last time we saw similar levels was January 31, 2026, when revenue hit $5.88M, That spike coincided with ETH price dropping from above $2,700
⏲️ The last time ETH revenue went above $6M was Oct 13, 2025, when ETH later corrected from its peak above $4,250.
🧠 Final Conclusion
⏲️ The recent closing of most short positions in the derivatives market shows that many leveraged traders are now betting on Ethereum’s price to keep climbing, signaling a wave of optimism among market players.
This view is backed by the noticeable jump in Ethereum network revenue, pointing to stronger buying activity.
Written by Amr Taha
The following analysis combines Binance derivatives positioning data with Ethereum on-chain revenue metrics
📊 ETH: Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume / OI [USD] 24H
📉 Ethereum Open Interest on Binance dropped significantly from 8B to 3.9B
📉 The decline started around January 14 and continued until the time of writing
📉 This represents a nearly 50% reduction in total outstanding derivative contracts
📈 Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) Surge Since February 4
📈 Focusing on the period starting February 4, CVD increased from $2.4 billion to $4.15 billion
⚠️ This means most of the closed positions were shorts, while long positions stayed open.
⚠️ This type of positioning often reflects excessive optimism, especially when driven by derivatives .
📊 Daily Blockchain Total Revenue by Chain-All Protocols
The second chart tracks daily total blockchain revenue across multiple networks,
🔬 Ethereum’s total revenue mainly comes from Gas Fees, which users pay for:
* Transferring ETH between wallets
* Swaps on decentralized exchanges
* Interacting with smart contracts (DeFi lending, NFTs, etc.)
* Liquidations, which spike during volatile or falling markets
The chart shows a sudden spike in Ethereum daily revenue, reaching levels close to $6M per day.
🔬 Key Revenue Events:
📅 February 6: Ethereum revenue surged to $5.8M
📅 Last time we saw similar levels was January 31, 2026, when revenue hit $5.88M, That spike coincided with ETH price dropping from above $2,700
⏲️ The last time ETH revenue went above $6M was Oct 13, 2025, when ETH later corrected from its peak above $4,250.
🧠 Final Conclusion
⏲️ The recent closing of most short positions in the derivatives market shows that many leveraged traders are now betting on Ethereum’s price to keep climbing, signaling a wave of optimism among market players.
This view is backed by the noticeable jump in Ethereum network revenue, pointing to stronger buying activity.
Written by Amr Taha
Whales ≥ 100k ETH - Realized Price ↓
• During the latest market drop, ETH traded below the Realized Price of whales holding at least 100k ETH. According to the most recent data, this RP currently stands at $2,075.
• The last time this occurred after an ATH was in September 2018, when price traded below it for roughly six months.
• Ethereum has now reached a level with a favorable risk-reward profile to start more aggressive long-term DCA accumulation.
Written by _OnChain
• The last time this occurred after an ATH was in September 2018, when price traded below it for roughly six months.
• Ethereum has now reached a level with a favorable risk-reward profile to start more aggressive long-term DCA accumulation.
Written by _OnChain
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