SVIATOSLAV GUSEV

Tether enters private credit at the peak of defaults — StableFund with Fasanara. Figures. 9 Sep: anchor of 400$ mln from sponsors, target up to 3$ bln among institutions. Fasanara (>6$ bln AUM) — manager, short-duration asset-backed across 60+ countries. Tether — originator/adviser on the tracks of $USDT. Galaxy: ~60% crypto-lending ~23$ bln (~13,5$ bln loans) by the end of June. The private credit sector ~3$ trillion; Blue Owl Q2 defaults 2.8% — 5-year high. The FSB warned back in May about leverage and redemptions. My take: this isn’t “yet another $USDT on an exchange.” Stablecoin settlement is pulled into real credit precisely when the WSJ/FSB write about stress. The question isn’t “have they launched” — but whether they can pull through 3$ bln without disclosing downside exposure at Tether. Question: for you, StableFund is the maturity of $USDT or entering someone else’s cycle at the peak of risks? $USDT #Bitcoin

9 Sep: the institutions didn’t leave crypto — they moved from $BTC to altcoins. Second day in a row.

Numbers. SoSoValue 9 Sep: spot BTC ETF −120.24$ M (ARKB −77.98$, GBTC −27.22$, IBIT −19.53$) — the second day of outflows after 8 Sep −46.65$. On the same day ETH +34.75$ M, $XRP +12.29$, $SOL +11.73$ M (SOL’s best day of September). AUM of spot BTC ETF ~99.33$ B. CMC $BTC ~78,300$.

My take: yesterday I asked — the noise around GBTC or rotation into $XRP. Answer: rotation is broader. Two days in a row BTC is red on ETFs, while ETH/XRP/SOL are green. This isn’t “crypto is dead” — it’s reallocation of weight ahead of today’s PPI and tomorrow’s CPI.

Question: for you, 9 Sep is a pause in $BTC or the start of the alt-ETF season?
#Bitcoin #ETH #XRP #SOL

Aug 8: $XRP hit ETF inflows while bitcoin, ether, and sol are out — rotation, not “crypto madness”. Numbers. SoSoValue, Aug 8: spot BTC ETF −46,65$ M (GBTC −65,51$), ETH +24,29$ M, SOL −0,67$ M, XRP +1,55$ M. AUM spot BTC ETF again ~99,52$ B. CMC $XRP ~1,41$. My take: one day is just noise. The institution didn’t leave crypto — they moved their funds to Ripple. If tomorrow again XRP is up along with BTC outflows, that’s rotation—not just a GBTC thing. Poll: for you, Aug 8 is noise from either GBTC or is it a rotation into $XRP? $XRP #Bitcoin

До FOMC осталось неделя, а $BTC уже отскочил к ~79 700$ . рынок торгуется в ожидании hike, а CPI. индикаторов. CME FedWatch 9 сен: +25 б.п. 16 сен ~60,4% / hold ~39,6%. Далее PPI 10 сен, CPI 11 сен — в 8:30 ET (BLS). CMC $BTC ~79 650$ (+1,5% за сутки; днем ~77 640–79 680$). Неделю назад вероятность hike колебалась 50/50–70%; сейчас она застряла у 60% несмотря на отскок спота. Мой тейк: отскок с 78,5k — не «сломали» hawkish. Это ставка, что soft CPI увеличит odds примерно до 40% до решения Варша. Hot print закрепит 60%+ и снова протестируем 78k. На этой неделе цена решает CPI и FOMC. Вопрос: для $BTC что важнее — print CPI 11 сент. или сам FOMC 16 сент.?

STH whales sit on record paper profits for $BTC — so it’s no longer support for the rally, but a “payoff.” Numbers. CryptoQuant (IT Tech): unrealized profit of STH whales as of Sep 4: 9,07$ B — the highest since 2016. By Saturday ~7,51$ B, still top-5 in history; up over the past two weeks. Darkfost: 90d MA spent UTXO by holders >5 years ~1 500 $BTC (in May about half). CMC $BTC ~78 400. Another take: the floor for the rally is real, but above it is a record paper gain — a cohort that quickly locks in. Spent by OG ≠ necessarily a dump (they could be buying), but STH whales are the main candidate for selling if there’s a wobble around 78–80k. Question: for $BTC, which is more dangerous— the record 9$ B at STH whales, or the revival of spent by 5-year OG holders?

Strategy is back in attack: +4,603 $BTC for 369,7$ m after a pause of ~10 weeks. We bought at ~80,318$ — and the spot is already ~78,500$. Numbers. Aug 24–30: +4,603 $BTC (avg 80,318$), stack 845,050 (~4% of 21m). Overall avg cost 75,412$, cost basis ~63,73$ bn. In summer we sold ~6,900 $BTC at ~62,250$ (~430$ m). ATM MSTR: 4.53m shares → 602,8$ m net; of these, 369,7$ in BTC, 151,8$ used to buy STRC back. USD Reserve + Cash ~6,71$ bn, net leverage 0%. CMC $BTC ~78,500. My take: «We’re back» — not a top signal, but a return of structural bid after the balance remont. Irony: we entered at 62k, bought at 80k. At this note we’re already down vs spot, and on the entire stack we’re still green. Dilution pays for the bid — the model is alive; the ATM is open. Question: for $BTC what matters more— Strategy’s return to buying, or the fact that this lot is already under one at 78.5k?

Hormuz is heating up the oil again — and $BTC is holding at ~79 500$ as if CPI is no longer that important. Numbers: Brent ~96,8$ (week +7.8%), WTI ~92.1. On Saturday, the US hit 3 Iranian tankers (including near Kharg); the IRGC responded against ships in the strait. Hormuz traffic is ~10 commodity ships/day — the lowest since May (Kpler); previously it was ~1/5 of the world’s oil. $BTC ~79 400–79 500$ on the Labor Day tape. My take: the market is holding an “institutional bid” and for now is muting the oil→inflation→rates chain. If Brent consolidates around 97$ before the CPI on Sep 11 — the hike won’t just be background noise and will become the actual price of the trade. A quiet Monday doesn’t cancel the inflationary cycle. Question: for $BTC, what’s more scary — a thin tape or Brent at 97$ into CPI?

Liquid (Blockstream) said: there was a bug in Elements—someone siphoned unbacked L-BTC; the federation signed off on a peg-out of ~3,996 $BTC (~320$ mln) — ~95% of the reserve. White hats deactivated it before the patch across all nodes. Cyry. On Sep 6 ~14:05 UTC SideSwap ~4,000 L-BTC; ~14:28 the federation paid out ~3,996 $BTC. Reserve ~4,200 → ~197 $BTC. After that, ~3,998.5 $BTC; return on Sep 7 has not happened. Elements bug, not the SideSwap/PAK keys. L-BTC bridges are down; USDT/DePix/RWA supposedly still work. My take: this is not a “multisig was stolen”—the protocol itself drained the reserve for the fake L-BTC. Until the coins are returned and the patch is applied everywhere, there won’t be any buffer for peg-out. Trust in BTC-sidechains will be shaken by the bug’s price, not by 11/15 signatures. Question: will most people believe before the bridges are reopened—will L-BTC get de-pegged to $BTC?

Labor Day in the USA — a thin tape around $BTC ~79,450, with 9 days to FOMC and one CPI. The market is already 58% positioned for a hike, while spot is almost flat. Numbers. CMC $BTC ~79,450$ (day ~79,020–80,530$). CME FedWatch Sep 16: +25 bps ~58.3% / hold ~41.7%. Today US is closed (Labor Day), PPI Sep 10, CPI Sep 11 at 8:30 ET, FOMC Sep 16. Spot BTC ETF Aug 31–Sep 4: +986,7$ m (IBIT +692$), AUM ~101,3$ bn — no inflows expected today. My take: the holiday Monday is an illusion of calm. 79–80k without the US equity tape, and the hike is already priced in. Hot CPI → 58% becomes 70%+ and a test of ~78k on a thin market; soft → 82k like a floor ahead of FOMC. Don’t confuse “quiet” with “safe.” Question: for $BTC, is the CPI print on Sep 11 more important, or the thin Labor Day tape into FOMC?

US debt is already above 40$ trn, 10y ~4.78%, and $BTC is holding around 80k. Money rates matter more than the ETF flow story. Numbers. Gross debt crossed 40$ trn in Aug. Yahoo ^TNX close on Sep 4: 4.784% (high since Nov 2023 ~4.81%). CBO: net interest FY26 ~1$ trn (~3,18$ bn/day; Oct–Jul 963$ bn). Deficit FY26 ~2,1$ trn / ~5.8% of GDP. Bessent buybacks ≥4$ bn per operation. FedWatch on the 16th: hike ~51% / hold ~49% with range 3.50–3.75%. Yahoo $BTC ~79,940$. My take: ETF inflows are buying weakness, while the long end of the curve is the tax on risk. If 10y holds 4.8%+ before CPI on Sep 11, $BTC is more likely to test 78k than 82k. Buybacks smooth the auction, but they do not cancel the fiscal overhang. Question: for $BTC, is the CPI print on Sep 11 more important, or whether 10y stays below 4.8% until the FOMC?

The best 3-week spot BTC ETF streak in 2026 — ~3.8$ billion — with $BTC below 80k. Institutional bids buy weakness, not chase. Numbers. SoSoValue: week to Friday +986.9$ million, three weeks ~3.8$ billion (best streak of the year). AUM ~101.3$ billion (the day before ~103.3$). YTD still around −1$ billion. Rotation: $ETH spot ETF for the week ~218$ million with ~824$ (−74%), $XRP ~19$ million with ~110$ (−83%). Yahoo $BTC ~79,800$. Next week: PPI Sep 10, CPI Sep 11, FOMC Sep 16; hike odds after Friday ~59%. My take: Friday’s wick below 80k was fear of a hawkish Fed, the whole week was accumulation. Three strong weeks of inflows below a round number = dip-buying. Hot CPI will lock in a hike and test ~78k; soft data will put 82k back as the floor. Question: for $BTC, is it more important whether the 3-week streak holds after CPI on Sep 11, or the actual print before FOMC?

CLARITY on Sep 15 is not the law, but cloture at 60 votes. Polymarket is already pricing passage in 2026 at around 13–15%, and Bernstein expects −10–25% for $BTC if it fails. The calendar risk is closer than it seems. The numbers. Senate: cloture on the motion to proceed on H.R. 3633 at 14:15 ET on Sep 15, threshold 60. House 294–134 (July 2025), Banking 15–9 (May 2026). With 53 GOP seats, at least 7 Democrats are needed (more if some Republicans defect). Polymarket on the bill in 2026: ~13–15% (it was ~82% in February); Kalshi ~91% that a vote before Oct 1 will even happen. Bernstein: on a fail, near-term −10–25% for $BTC. Yahoo $BTC ~79 600$. At the same time, since Aug 18 the SEC has been rolling out Regulation Crypto Assets — agency rules, not statute. My take: the tape is trading NFP and the Sep 16 FOMC, while the procedural clock ticks one day earlier. Cloture ≠ passage, but 59 votes almost certainly bury the bill until 2029. The skepticism in prediction markets is already priced in — the upside surprise from getting 60 votes matters more than yet another “expected” fail. There will be no vacuum: without Congress, what remains is enforcement + reversible rulemaking. Question: for $BTC, is the Sep 15 cloture itself more important, or the fact that the market has already priced the 2026 bill at around 13–15%?

NFP 162k vs ~55k — $BTC wiped the wick from 82 240$ below 80k, but spot ETFs still took in +174,6$ million on Friday. Macro hit price, not the institutional bid. The numbers. BLS August: payrolls +162k (consensus ~53–56k), unemployment 4.1%, July revised up. Yahoo $BTC ~79 600$ (day ~79 480–79 755$; Friday high ~82 240$). CME FedWatch for the Sept 16 FOMC: ~58.6% for +25 bps / ~41.4% hold (before NFP it was ~50/50 after Waller). Farside/SoSoValue Sept 4: spot BTC ETF +174,6$ million (IBIT +117.4$, FBTC +57.2$) — third day in a row after Sept 3 +730,8$ million; category AUM ~101$ billion. My take: yesterday’s question, “Does NFP confirm the ETF bid or risk bringing back hawkish FedWatch?” got answered both ways at once. The price got hit by higher hike odds, but the spot market still put 175$ million in on the day of blowout payrolls. This is not “oil risk-off 2.0” and not an end to the bid — it’s a weekend-thin tape around 80k until CPI and the Sept 15–16 FOMC. A strong CPI will cement the 58% hike probability and test ~78k; a weak one will turn 82k back into support, not a wick. Question: for $BTC, is it more important that spot ETFs keep inflows for a third day after hawkish NFP, or the next CPI before FOMC?

BlackRock fixes ETHA with a 1-for-3 reverse stock split starting October 6 — and the spot $ETH ETF, after the earlier glitch, has already returned +68$ million in Thursday trading. Pumping and flows are diverging. Figures. SEC 8-K / iShares: ETHA 1-for-3, record date October 5, trading with the split from October 6; Balchunas — spread from ~7 to ~2 bps. Farside: 2 on 48,2$ million, 3 Sep +68$ million. $ETH ~2 520$ (day ~+5%). For comparison: Bitwise BSOL at the end of August first crossed 1$ billion in AUM (~10 months since Oct’25); the SOL ETF category then was ~1,49$ billion. $SOL ~104. My take: the split isn’t a signal that “$ETH was written off,” but liquidity mechanics after the price drop. When after −48$ million, the next day they put +68$ million back, while $SOL products live in the billions in AUM — institutions are laying tracks for the next cycle, not writing obituaries for altcoins. Risk is only noise creation around October 6, not a reversal of the demand. Question: for $ETH, is a smooth ETHA split on October 6 more important, or will the alt-ETF demand be sustained after today’s NFP?

$BTC removed ~415$ m short positions and touched 82k — amid spot ETF +730,8$ m in the session and FedWatch, where the hike probability slid from ~70% to ~50/50 before today’s NFP. Numbers. Coinbase ~81,100$. Farside Sep 3: spot BTC ETF +730,8$ m (IBIT +454$, ARKB +137.7$, FBTC +74.4$) — the largest day since January. CoinGlass for ~24h: liquidations ~510$ m, of which shorts ~415$ m. CME FedWatch for FOMC Sep 16: ~50% for +25 bps (yesterday it reached ~70%) after Waller’s comments. Today’s NFP: consensus ~55–58k after July −23k; unemployment 4.1%. My take: this is not “oil risk-off” being reversed. TradFi bought the rate discount ahead of the data. When, in a day, spot adds 730$ m, and shorts are burning at 415$ m, the price is trading the probability of a hike—not Hormuz. A strong NFP could flip the hike odds back to 70% and eat half of the rally; a weak one will keep 82k as a floor, not just a wick. Question: for today’s NFP, what matters more for $BTC — confirmation of the ETF bid or the catalyst to challenge the hawkish FedWatch?

$ETH spot ETF cut a 12-day run of inflows: −48$ mln on Wednesday — the same day, the $BTC ETF returned +101$ mln. Not an exit from crypto, but a tightening of the rate.

Numbers. SoSoValue: the series delivered ~1,62$ bn over 12 sessions; Sep 2 −48$ mln (ETHA −53.4$, FETH −26.2$, ETHE −23.5$; ETHB ~+53$ partially offset). The $XRP ETF was also −7,2$ mln, ending an 11-day streak (~170$ mln). $ETH ~2 400$ (Yahoo). CME FedWatch for the FOMC on Sep 16: ~60% for +25 bps (range 3.75–4.00%) vs ~36% a week ago. UST 10Y ~4.78%.

My take: when the market starts pricing in the first rate hike since 2023, alt-ETF streaks break before Bitcoin’s. Institutions didn’t “leave” — they kept $BTC as the core and trimmed $ETH/$XRP while the discount rate is rising. Friday’s NFP and CPI on Sep 11 will determine whether this is just a pause or a new regime.

Question: after the $ETH ETF streak breaks, is it closer to a pause ahead of the data, or a prolonged “only $BTC” phase?

$BTC around 77 850$ after a break toward ~76 400: oil has pulled back slightly from yesterday’s highs, but risk-off hasn’t been removed yet — today’s jobs report is before the FOMC on Sep 16.

Numbers. Yahoo ~77 850$ (day ~76 994–78 094$). Brent ~95,1$ / WTI ~90,5$ (Reuters, morning Sep 3; yesterday’s settle ~95,6$ / ~91$). Spot BTC ETF: AUM after Sep 1 ~97,1$ B (late-August peak ~99,6$ B); August inflows ~3,5$ B. Aug 31 +217$ M → Sep 1 −236,5$ M (IBIT −201$) → Sep 2 again +101$ M.

My take: the market isn’t really about whether the “August ETF bid” broke, but how long oil at $95+ keeps the inflation shock in place. As of Sep 2, it has already clawed back part of the outflow — a flush, not a trend change. Soft jobs today could give $BTC air to 78k faster than any speech about Hormuz.

Question: does $BTC today depend more on oil/Hormuz or on NFP ahead of the September FOMC?

Robinhood Chain made $2,66$ million in app revenue in a single day and overtook Hyperliquid ($1,70$ million) and $ETH ($1,28$ million). Only $SOL is ahead—$5,07$ million. 88% of revenue comes from three apps: GMGN, Pons, and Uniswap. Memecoins and launchpads, not stock tokens that Robinhood sells. Over the last 30 days, Hyperliquid is still ahead: $53,41$ million versus $23,23$ million for Robinhood Chain. A daily flip ≠ a structural breakthrough. My take: L2 on Arbitrum Orbit can capture the fee stream, but the base is narrow. As long as US users don’t have Stock Tokens, this is a headline for HOOD, not a new Ethereum. Question: will memecoin revenue sustain the network, or is it a one-off spike?

September 16 Circle brings Arc to public mainnet. Not another L1 for retail: gas in $USDC, with the network run by BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, DTCC, and another 8 institutions—plus Circle itself.

Numbers. $USDC in circulation is ~74$ billion (as of Aug 30). On the private mainnet there are already 100+ builders. BUIDL BlackRock — about 2,8$ billion — is expected on Arc: subscription, redemption, and deployment in a single environment. DTCC promises tokenization of DTC assets on Arc in the second half of 2027. While $BTC trades like a macro asset, the settlement layer moves to a permissioned network where the validator is Visa, not a miner.

Question: In a year will Arc become the settlement backbone for institutions—or just another “institutional L1” waiting in line?

Hyperliquid integrated AQAv2: 90% of revenue from roughly 5$ billion $USDC on the platform goes to $HYPE buybacks. Validators delivered 69.08%.

Assistance Fund has already bought back 45.07 million $HYPE for approximately 1.1$ billion, with an average price of about 24.90. The first payment under the new scheme is October 3. Estimated USDC flow: 135–160$ million per year, on top of buybacks from fees.

But the old engine is losing pressure: monthly buybacks from fees fell from about 111$ million to 37$ million. At the same time, 519,480 $HYPE was taken off staking—about 28.6$ million.

My take: this isn’t “just another burn.” It’s an attempt to replace fat trading fees with a percentage taken from someone else’s stablecoin. It will work only if 5$ billion $USDC doesn’t go anywhere and the rates don’t collapse. Until October 3, it’s a presentation, not P&L.

$BTC lives on inflows. $HYPE now also depends on whether $USDC funds the buyback. Which is more reliable by autumn?