灯塔说

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We’re about to get through the harsh winter
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The market analysis and investment recommendations provided in this plaza are based solely on publicly available information and professional judgment, and do not constitute any guarantee of returns or assurance of principal safety.
Investing involves risk; decisions should be made carefully. Please assess your own risk tolerance and financial situation prudently, and assume responsibility for any related investment risks.
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——Lighthouse Says. For business cooperation (copy-trading), please DM.

Gold has just perfectly pierced 4120 to take profit
Right now there is only one live-stream reminder for a 64900 short position

A perfect July finish!
$XAU

Tonight live stream together to watch PCE and GDP data
Let’s make July end perfectly
$XAU $BTC

How to look at the 20:30 Beijing time release of US GDP and PCE data?
First, look at the relationship of the results:
If PCE cools and GDP is weak: US Treasury yields fall, which is favorable for gold and tends to push BTC/ETH higher via a short squeeze.
If PCE runs hot and GDP is resilient: rate-hike expectations and yields rise, which makes it easier to break through the lower end of the range.
If GDP is weak but PCE is hot: a stagflation-type setup, which is least friendly for risk assets.

Tonight (Thursday 8:30) is an extremely rare “data on the same screen” event—Q2 GDP advance and June core PCE landing in the same window, and right after yesterday’s Fed decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%.

The key tug-of-war in this set of data is “confirmation of a stagflation snapshot.” The biggest expectation gap in the market is on the economic growth pace: the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has slashed the forecast since May’s 4.3% all the way down to about 1.5% now, far below the 2.3% consensus on Wall Street. Meanwhile, core PCE after setting a three-year high of 3.4% in May—tonight’s market expectation is only a slight dip to around 3.3%.

If tonight prints a combination like “low GDP (e.g., below 2%) + sticky PCE (flat or above 3.3%)”, that would put the Fed in a policy deadlock—Powell can’t keep hiking in the face of an economic cliff, but it also can’t create room for rate cuts ahead of core inflation at 3.3%.

What this means for trading tonight:

Gold:
A stagflation setup is an absolute bullish catalyst for gold. As long as GDP visibly sputters, the market will conclude that the Fed ultimately has to compromise with the economy. Weak economic activity suppresses nominal yields, while inflation remains elevated—real yields then drift lower passively, which provides very strong upside momentum for gold.

Crypto assets:
For liquidity-sensitive assets, this is a lose-lose scenario. Weak GDP makes the market price in more easing in the forward curve, but a hot PCE immediately clamps down on near-term risk appetite. Tonight’s bigger likelihood is that price first moves lower, triggering a pin-like cleanup of long liquidity. If BTC is currently ranging around 64,000, and unless PCE is extremely below expectations (for example, dropping directly toward 3.1% to fully open the space for rate cuts), it will be hard to form a one-way upside trend. It most likely turns into a wide-range “monkey market.”

Core:
Tonight, absolutely do not look at any single data point in isolation—you must look at the combination spread between the two. If, at the moment of release, you find that GDP is below expectations but PCE is above expectations, going long gold is the most straightforward trade based on logic;
$XAU

The password is here
Buy gold $XAU
Get the PCE data announcement tonight
Anticipate ahead of time that it’s positive data.
It’s best to enter in batches before the data releases.
Let’s see if it can break through 4120 in one go tonight.

The value of this content is still going up.
In the US stock market in July,
whenever people asked me what to buy,
I only recommended Microsoft. $MSFT

Sure enough, Waller won’t raise rates, but will only talk big
Last night he maintained the rate + talked tough (dragging time)
The expected market trend is up first, then down

The most obvious is gold. Gold started to stop falling and rebound at around midnight last night, and around 1 a.m. buy-side momentum began to rise.
It’s like it was already positioned early, like a pre-planned move. After the policy meeting was confirmed, it rushed up to 4120.
My long position was stuck for 4 days and finally got out.

But this morning the U.S. is going to bomb Iran again.

In the short term, the market is still ranging—no one-way move!

Tonight there’s also PCE data, which is the June PCE data, and it’s the last major data point for July. The expectation is positive—bullish for the market.

Today I’ll go long at the lows and hold until the evening data.
$BTC

The expectations for yesterday’s Fed meeting decision were largely consistent
Maintain unchanged + Wush turned more hawkish
The market first rises then falls

Today first go long
$BTC
Bitcoin 63700
$XAU Gold 4060
Already went long
【Personal trading record sharing only, not investment advice】

At midnight today, the Fed will release its rate decision.
Whether it will hike rates or keep them unchanged are the two options tonight.
The market says this time is the hardest to predict because the July conflict between Iran and the US has pushed oil prices higher, which might lead the Fed to suddenly hike rates to rein in inflation.

But in one sentence: there will be no rate hike! Keep rates unchanged.
A rate decision that matches expectations—maintaining the policy rate—remains unchanged.

However, in the dot plot, if there are a few votes for a rate hike, then expectations for a rate hike in September will rise again—this is a bearish signal. If everyone agrees to keep rates unchanged with no hike votes, then that’s a bullish signal, for real.

Also, Waller’s 2:30 a.m. remarks could turn out to be hawkish, because last month’s inflation data had just cooled and the unexpectedly strong nonfarm payrolls came as a surprise. This month, oil prices are again disrupting the picture.
He strongly opposes high inflation, so he will likely talk tough on inflation to bring it down.

But even though Waller looks hawkish, in reality he’s hawkish only with his words.
He won’t hike rates. The more aggressively he calls for action, the lower the actual probability of a rate hike.
Originally, Trump recommended him for the job because he wanted rate cuts to support economic growth and a long bull run in U.S. stocks.
But with rate cuts, inflation that won’t come down could run out of control—U.S. Treasury yields would soar. That would end up crushing both the stock market and the economy.

To solidify his position and stance, Waller definitely has to say the hardest things out loud, just to stabilize the situation.

As long as oil prices stabilize, inflation holds steady without getting out of control, then rate hikes will always remain just talk. And even after a period of stability, there may be another round of rate cuts.

So, just like the important period in late 2022—don’t let yourself be shaken out of your position at the very end.
All the bearish signals after that are just appearances, just a fake fall. The pits dug by this kind of talk are often excellent left-side buying opportunities.
【Purely personal opinion for reference only】

Today there’s a bit of a drop—expectations of rate hikes
Funds seem to be pulling away from risk exposure in advance

If tonight it’s confirmed that the interest rate will be kept unchanged, and dovish signals are released
then the decline today can be recovered by tonight

Those who are in cash positions shouldn’t panic along with it
Instead, you should see the opportunity where latecomers step in and pick up discounted chips
$SKHYNIX

Is there a US stock that’s set to rebound first?
After reviewing the chart, I saw that in the US stock marked $SPCX , it broke below yesterday after the open, then reversed and turned back upward. Today in the pre-market it’s not following through on the decline either—giving the feel that it’s showing strength and may be the first to rebound.
SPCX has pulled back 53% from its all-time high since its IPO. Last night’s sell-off bottoming rebound suggests that near-term selling pressure may have run out. It’s possible some capital is starting to position early with a left-side bet on upcoming key events.
Next month, SPCX has two major first-time events:
1. SPCX will deliver its first earnings report since its IPO (Q2 earnings on August 4). Right now, there’s disagreement in the market about SPCX’s real profitability in AI and space hardware (xAI, Starlink, and launch business). If the earnings report proves its top-tier profits and revenue, it would be a major positive catalyst—and could trigger a strong, early rebound.
2. But there’s also bad news: on August 6 (the third day after the earnings release), the IPO shares unlock. This is the first unlock after the IPO, and early investors will be allowed to sell that day. That’s a signal of increased sell pressure.
The key is still the earnings report. If earnings are good, the selling pressure will be lighter; if earnings are bad, the massive unlocked shares could also lead to a chain-reaction sell-off and stampede.
In addition, the 13th Starship launch window is also approaching—any success by Starship that exceeds expectations will be reflected directly in the price action.

From a technical perspective, the bottoming reversal is a signal. During the day, you can initiate with a leading position. If in the evening the fundamental factors don’t break down below the new low, and it finds support and bottoms near 110, then that would be the best opportunity to set up larger exposure.

No more talk—I’ve held back from trying to bottom-fish US stocks for a long time. I don’t dare touch storage, so I’ll go for SPCX first.
$SPCX

I did something big
Told the bottom-fishers with action

It’s fine—just don’t bottom-fish
Otherwise, the whole household is gone

Once the bottom is successfully built,
just hop on with the momentum.
$SNDK

This drop
If you don’t know, you’d think the Fed raised rates by 50 basis points
。。。。

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its interest rate decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. Fed Chair Powell will, as usual, hold a press conference at 2:30 a.m.

Facing what industry insiders consider the Fed’s most difficult-to-predict decision, JPMorgan’s U.S. Markets Information and Trading Desk, in its latest report, expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. It also anticipates at least two dissenting “hawkish” votes—according to the report, including objections from Hammack and Logan.

Lighthouse lays out five scenario forecasts for the Fed’s decision and the potential path for the S&P 500 (ranked by probability from high to low):

① The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged while maintaining a hawkish stance (probability: 50%)—the S&P 500’s trading range today is expected to move up 0.25% to down 0.5%. This is the current baseline forecast. The Fed would keep rates unchanged due to a strong labor market and economic growth, but remain on alert for inflation. Recent trends in energy prices suggest another wave of inflation may be approaching.

② The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged while taking a dovish stance (probability: 28%)—the S&P 500 is expected to rise 0.5%-1%. This would be the most favorable outcome for equities.

③ The Federal Reserve hikes rates by 25 basis points (probability: 20%)—the S&P 500 is expected to fall 1.5%-2%, and the Nasdaq 100’s decline could be doubled. Driven by the market’s shift away from growth/“momentum” stocks and AI-related themes, the Russell 2000 Index may hold up relatively better in this downtrend.

④ The Federal Reserve hikes rates by 50 basis points (probability: 1%)—the S&P 500 is expected to fall 2%-4%. If the Fed also releases information indicating that this hike is only a temporary measure to address traditional inflation indicators—and should not be interpreted as the beginning of a series of hikes—the decline could be limited.

⑤ The Federal Reserve cuts rates (probability: 1%)—the S&P 500’s trading range is expected to swing up 1% to down 1.5%. The reason stocks could see negative outcomes is: if the market views this as a sign that the Fed has lost its independence, it could lead to higher yields, a higher break-even inflation rate, higher volatility, and weaker equities.
#美联储利率决议即将公布

Hynix has fallen below $1,000
You can already feel the large holders getting nervous
One more wave of rapid plunge
The leverage will be nearly wiped out

Earlier, when Hynix released its earnings report, its actual revenue and profit were solid
But because it fell short of market expectations, the price didn’t rise—it dropped instead
This shows the valuation for AI hardware has been priced perfectly, with zero margin for error; any minor flaw will trigger the market to run ahead
It’s like someone who has been perfectly defined: as long as they don’t meet expectations of a “good person,” they instantly become a “bad person”

But one thing: the moat in memory is still there. Hynix’s net profit hit a historical high of 93.9 trillion, indicating that pricing power is still in its own hands. So this drop isn’t fundamentals turning bad; it’s still because things got too crazy upfront. This is a short-term liquidity environment that’s overly sensitive and fragile—leading to short-term valuation compression and spillover selling pressure
In such an extreme, consensus-driven selloff, it often acts as an accelerator for a washout
Another round of rapid liquidation should basically stabilize things.
Where exactly the price bottom is, I don’t know! But if you keep watching the tape often, you’ll catch the signals.
Look at tonight’s Fed policy decision and the guidance from the other side.
$SKHYNIX $MU $SNDK

Iran “went long” last night
What’s interesting is that last night Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles
and hit their intended targets directly
Obviously, this sudden missile launch was “going long” in advance
The price also landed exactly, neither off by a bit, in the 77-79 range

As for the U.S.-Iran situation, there isn’t much news coming out in sync right now—it's not that nothing is happening, it’s just not as openly put on the table as before
What’s happening more now is mutual understanding and restraint between the two sides
You don’t hit me and I won’t hit you; if you move, I’ll move
【Oil Section】
$CL

The most correct thing to do recently is not to trade anything you don’t understand.
For example, this “light” of the U.S. stock market—held back, didn’t bottom-fish and go long.

If you don’t understand it, you also don’t have the logic or basis to bottom-fish.
You’re simply relying on subjectivity—buying the dip because you believe it’s going down.
Now you should do what everyone else does: just want a rebound to sell and never play this game again.
But once you add leverage, when you get stuck in a position, whether it’s liquidated first or rebounds first to let you get out is no longer up to you.

On the technical side, the reference value is limited. The biggest logic behind the U.S. stock market’s volatility is:
the fundamentals of companies and sectors, combined with market sentiment.

Now, the amount of decline has a bit of the feel of panic clearing leverage.
If leverage isn’t forcibly cleared, the sell-off probably won’t stop.
But if there’s a piece of good news—like a strong earnings report—that could temporarily halt the downward move.
$SKHYNIX $MU $SNDK

If tomorrow unexpectedly raises interest rates
or if there is an effective breakdown below 62500
stop out all BTC long positions
don’t set foot under the danger wall!

Because next month’s data will all be bearish, affecting both crypto and gold assets
$BTC
$XAU