灯塔说

Important Announcement:
The market analysis and investment recommendations provided in this plaza are based solely on publicly available information and professional judgment, and do not constitute any guarantee of returns or assurance of principal safety.
Investing involves risk; decisions should be made carefully. Please assess your own risk tolerance and financial situation prudently, and assume responsibility for any related investment risks.
Note: All content on this plaza is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
——Lighthouse Says. For business cooperation (copy-trading), please DM.

Review my trading views:

In terms of macro, the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. Oil prices are rising, which is weighing on gold. BTC continues to stay in a high-level sideways range. The current main driver is still interest rate hikes. This week’s CPI data will further affect expectations for rate hikes, but in the end there still won’t be a rate hike. Therefore, if the data before the policy meeting turns out bearish, look for key support levels to go long and buy.

Regarding the big BTC: I reminded the other day that a pullback to buy at 78. In addition, the community on the Square also reminded that shorts should be looking first for a pullback. Yesterday, I took profit and flipped positions. Currently, 77600 is a good support area. However, at the moment we can only look for a rebound around 792–796. The走势 (price action) of the smaller timeframe pullback hasn’t fully ended yet. But the main trend is still long.

For gold: as I mentioned last time, the correction hasn’t ended. If you want to go long, board the trade at the beginning of 42. Yesterday it traded in a range. Pay attention: whenever you see a wick/“needle” reaching the beginning of 42, that’s the signal to get on the long.

【This is only my personal trading perspective and does not constitute any investment advice】
Join the community via the intro!
$BTC
$XAU

Over the past couple of days, people have been saying that several institutions are indicating that rates will be raised in September this time.

That puts pressure on Vosh.

Vosh told me last night that he doesn’t dare to raise rates!

#原油涨至7月来最高 $BTC

Review and trading thoughts:

Last Friday, the strong non-farm payrolls data raised expectations of a rate hike. After breaking above 82K, the market pulled back, but the correction did not continue over the weekend. ETF inflows provided some support to the market. On September 3, BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $730.8 million, and on September 4, net inflows continued at $174.6 million.
This Friday there will be CPI data, which is an important release that may further affect expectations for a September rate hike.
My view remains unchanged: the main potential macro negative factor right now is still a rate hike. However, the current U.S. Treasury does not want rate hikes. The Federal Reserve is ostensibly independent, but in reality it also will not raise rates, and it is even less likely to cut rates. If inflation is high, Wosh will keep sounding hawkish but will not actually take rate-hiking action.
So, the bearish moves before the policy meeting are just adjustments and pullbacks in the market. If the pullback is small, then go long on a small scale; if the pullback is large, then pay attention to the previously mentioned second entry point around 72-73K before moving toward 96-97K.
That is the main directional view!

As for gold, the previous adjustment from 4680 has not ended yet. The rebound from 4300 to 4500 was in line with expectations for a bounce, and it will continue to adjust afterward before rising again. Continue to watch around 4200 as the starting point for the next upswing.

For intraday trading: wait for BTC to go long on dips, around 78K. For gold, watch support at 4360-4380 and resistance around 4460-4480, looking for range-bound adjustments.
[Personal trading opinions only, not investment advice]
$XAU $BTC

This upsurge once again caught the lowest point. Trading recap:

Yesterday, due to a decline in expectations of further rate hikes, the US dollar fell, long-term Treasury yields for the 30-year tenor dropped, and both the BTC and gold markets rose, breaking above the prior consolidation range. This round of macro-driven narrative tailwinds is continuing. Therefore, the mid-term bullish view of 96–97K remains unchanged. Earlier, I shorted gold at the previous high. I took profit around 4300 and flipped to go long early, and I also went long on the “big pie” around 76300. Last Friday, Woesh’s speech served as a reminder that near-term downside pullbacks are an opportunity—its value has appeared again.

Although the daily chart resistance zone at 82300–82800 is high, yesterday’s breakout above 80K, and the four-hour chart returning to a strong structure, suggests that today we should watch for a pullback and hold in the 79300–80K area. After that, the primary approach is still to go long on dips.

Tonight we have the first important nonfarm payroll data release of September. The day before yesterday’s small nonfarm data was favorable. The nonfarm number today, at current elevated prices, isn’t very suitable for getting positioned in advance. But both the trend and the technical picture are still leaning bullish. Going long on dips is definitely the right approach. If the nonfarm data is weak and rate-hike expectations drop further, 82K might even break through in one push.

If the nonfarm data turns out strong, the market may consolidate at high levels under pressure below 82K, then wait until the September 17th meeting when the policy is maintained unchanged. It would still move upward.

In summary, the main theme right now is still macro tailwinds. The safer way to handle risk assets is to go long—go long. For short-term trading, you can be flexible in your response.

Join the community and pin the Binance Square post. Starting from July, the full set of views has been shared, bringing group members plenty of returns and improving win rates. Up to now, for every cycle of highs and lows, the correct reminders have been given. Join the high-quality free community.
$BTC $XAU

War and oil prices have made all efforts futile!
——Voish

Reviewing:
After last week’s rally peaked at 81,500 and was swept clean, Waller delivered a slightly hawkish update right after. Over these past two days, the market has pulled back due to rising expectations for a September rate hike. However, BTC has been resilient, and gold’s adjustment has been decisive and smooth—and it has also reached the pullback target I expected.
Main takeaways:
1. A pullback driven by rate-hike bearishness is a good thing. As long as the statement/decision remains unchanged, it’s a positive (I don’t think Waller will hike).
2. BTC’s correction hasn’t ended yet. It is currently in a range-bound adjustment. After the pullback ends, I’ll look for another wave of upside.
3. The first phase of gold’s pullback has ended. I took profit on all short positions above 4,600. Next, I’ll look for a rebound.

There are many pieces of data directly relevant this month, so it’s recommended to anticipate them and be ready to respond at any time.
[Only my personal trading views, not investment advice]
$XAU $BTC

Gold 4480 arrives as scheduled
Trading view from 4650 onward

The big target 77400–76800 is also in place
But it initially spikes up to 81500 and then pulls back—here we first look for a rebound

A break of the channel doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a real break!
$BTC
$XAU

This plan has a lot of value!

The “big pie” $BTC dropped back to 77600 and then rose to 81500.

Gold $XAU also moved from 4650 to 4560.

Today’s “big pie” showed a signal that the rally might be weak—after pushing higher it pulled back—but we still go low to buy.

Watch what the host says tonight (Vosh’s speech); the macro information will be more important.

Gold is adjusting at a high level; in the short term, the one-way uptrend should be over.

It’s also getting close to the recent high we saw around 4770–4840.

So the long-term long plan will be paused for now—let’s wait for the pullback.

The road is long, but if the direction is right, you won’t be afraid!

Tonight, Wosh will speak
Go long or go short?
$BTC $XAU

Brothers, have you taken profit on your short order for $XAU ?

The clearest way to recall $XAU

Short selling: see two levels at 4540–4480

Let’s talk about the trading plan:
Mainly it’s intraday—the trend is pretty obvious.
That earlier surge came out of nowhere; both the bears and the bulls were caught off guard.
Since July, we’ve been reminding everyone that 57K is the bottom—we’ve kept repeating the idea of favoring longs and buying on dips.
The main direction being bullish is correct; it shouldn’t cause my brothers and sisters who follow me to make a big mistake.

Right now, the short-term market is consolidating at high levels after a rapid surge. This kind of consolidation doesn’t suggest trying to “top-tick.”
If you really want to bet on the downside, then try to go short after each rapid new high—but this also depends on timing.
There are several situations where you can test and make mistakes, but this kind of left-side trading has pros and cons. (No further elaboration.)

Today, my BTC plan is to go long on a pullback around 774–768.

Gold shows an hourly-level reversal. In the near term, shorts are still the main focus; breaking to new highs is the stop-loss.

On the macro side, conditions are currently favorable. There’s no major negative news for now. The short-term negative is providing an opportunity for a pullback—it’s not a “top reversal” opportunity.
The only potential downside risk this week is the Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference for the first time, on Friday.

For the swing trade: if it pulls back to 73K–72K, that would be another chance to get back in on BTC.

[The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice]
$BTC $XAU

Jump like a pro:
In this round, the high point of $BTC should reach 95-97K
Along the way, 72-73K is a pullback low point

The start or turning point of the next market move this week lies in the Fed Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole:
The focus is not on whether he emphasizes a dovish or hawkish stance,
but on whether, within the meeting, the Fed might change its inflation strategy to help the government with fiscal needs.
If they would, then it’s a bullish sign and a new restart point.
If they wouldn’t, then the market will see a turning and a pullback.
$BTC
$XAU

It’s still the early stage of an uptrend, because many bearish market short-selling mindsets haven’t flipped yet.
There’s always an idea of timing the top to short.
But will the market give you that opportunity?
$BTC

A recap of the market rally over the past two days (the key is the last sentence):
If you attribute this “bull is coming” surge to the U.S. government stepping in to intervene and drive down long-term Treasury yields—improving long-end liquidity and lowering financing costs—then next week you should focus on the speeches at the Jackson Hole (the annual global central bank conference) and on statements by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. These will重新 determine how the market prices inflation, interest rates, and fiscal intervention.
This also directly affects whether the move continues higher, or whether it “shakes out the shorts” before turning into further long positions.

After the market surged rapidly this afternoon, it showed the first instance of high-level turnover during the recent two-day upswing. It’s expected that we should take advantage of the weekend to adjust at these high levels and wait for signals next week.

If you can’t understand the fundamental signals next week, then just watch the U.S. dollar. Even though this rally is meant to intervene in long-term Treasuries, the dollar falling is a direct negative-correlation reaction. If next week’s signals feed through into a stronger dollar, then BTC and gold are likely to pull back. Conversely, if Warsh continues to support or accommodate the Treasury’s intervention, then BTC and gold should keep rising.

Technically, the current uptrend is already on the 4-hour timeframe. So the safest approach over the weekend is to look for a safe pullback level to go long, then hold and wait for next week’s signals. But both BTC and gold have already swept liquidity at the daily timeframe’s high zone. For BTC, be strict about whether it can hold above 78K. For gold, watch whether the daily candle closes with its body above 4600.
For the safest retracement entry zones, look at 73K–74K to go long. For gold, watch the two support levels at 4480 and 4380.

Summary: The main direction we repeatedly reminded you about earlier—buying the dips—has delivered a violent rally and paid off. Going forward, there’s no need to shift the focus to new longs at the same center of gravity. Instead, pay attention to when the up move ends, or wait for an opportunity where there is a stronger support to extend the rally.
$BTC

U.S. debt surpasses $40 trillion

Just in interest alone, it’s $1.2 trillion!

$BTC Do you see this and really want to short?
But you have to hold it in!
This is just a high-level position switch!
The signal to short needs to wait
(If you peel the skin back, just pretend I didn’t say it)

$BTC

Good market conditions arrived early in August.
But the directional reminder is correct: the main focus is on low buying—looking good for BTC and gold.
This is thanks to a sudden boost from Trump and the U.S. Treasury yesterday.
It surged by 6,000 points in one move, breaking 70,000 directly.

Now we’ve come up to the 71–73K threshold.
After that, as long as it holds steady in the 67–72K range, we’ll continue pushing toward the third-stage peak.

The market is picking up!