加密龐克
Youtube：加密龐克，推特：@crypto_punkX
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週末速報-比特以太篇(1011以來的最大爆倉日..準備好開始抄底了!)
技術面：直接講重點，目前最已經踩到了75600了，距離超大級別的這筆熊旗的滿足點74000僅剩一步之遙(圖一)，最新一部影片也有跟大家詳細聊到我接下來的計畫，簡單來說包含74000以下的所有大級別關鍵位就是我會開始買入現貨的地方了，先列幾個比較重要的就是73949、69138、61097，這三個是我目前已經掛好單子的地方
特別是73949~69138這裡就是我們有跟大家提到過的，大級別的小規模熊市跟大熊市的分界線(圖二)，可以理解成只要收破的話他所需的整理時間就會拉長非常多，但跌破之前都還是先看這是一個3~5個月的小規模熊市
新聞面：目前最重要的首先就是美伊局勢了，就連三方會談都因為美國目前專注在伊朗問題上所以延期到下週了，不美俄之間這幾天已經有先私下談過了，所以這一兩周可能就會是包含美伊局勢跟烏俄，目前地緣政治兩大關鍵事件的關鍵解決時間點了
另外美國政府目前已經在早些時間正式部分停擺了，不過目前參議院已經沒問題了，剩下的就是明天國會開門後的通過了，這個技術性的短暫停擺沒意外的話就會在2/2號恢復正常
數據面：(圖三)100+大鯨魚昨天+355，今天+1498，本周一共+2300，週五有跟大家聊到從數據來看在急跌之後，大鯨魚是還沒有出現比較大量的抄底動作的，所以有可能是還沒有達到他們的滿足點，就以過往的經驗來說這可能也代表下跌並未結束
在稍早的再次急跌之後，目前的確至少有出現比前幾天都還要大的買入了(圖四)，但這買入量也有點不足，所以目前合約接下來想要找機會的朋友可以持續關注他們的動向，大鯨魚他們尚未出手(最好的一個情況是假跌破重新收回關鍵位，比如80600前低、74000大級別關鍵，然後同時間鏈上出現極端情緒，大鯨魚大量買入，散戶全部賣出)那這就是非常值得去嘗試的機會了
目前遠古超級巨鯨HL上的多單已經爆光了，這次的大買多剛剛好把他1011大賣空賺到的2億多美金全部吐回去了，不過他目前包含BTC還有將近50億美金的現貨部位，循環貸的部分他目前也沒有解除，清算價在$1956，只能說從1011大賣空之前我們就開始追蹤他了，一路從看他創造奇蹟，到最後又全部吐回去了，實在是"非常精彩"，但也再次提醒到所有人，沒有帶止損的交易最終的歸途就是"爆倉"
ETH：目前包含山寨全部是一個比一個更慘，以太這邊直接貫穿多個關鍵位，短線上可以關注一下2408~2506這個小區間的支撐彈起情況，不過整體來說還是要看BTC怎麼走了
目前(10,000~100,000)大鯨魚持有總量如同預期持續下降當中，Bitmine還是持續在瘋狂質押的，不過上周開始有跟大家提到，大鯨魚持有量下降的數量是有比他們質押的數量還要更大一些，所以ETH大鯨魚這邊整體來說是有出現賣出的
結論：昨天也有跟大家聊到新任美聯儲主席Kevin Warsh的態度，具體要等他首次談話才會知道沒錯，但就以他過往的理念來說，他主打縮表的一個想法對於絕大多數山寨幣的打擊可能會很大，尤其是沒有機構買盤的，這我們之後會聊，對於比特幣來說，接下來開始就是非常重要的大級別關鍵了，準備進入到現貨買入範圍了，我會準備開始買入，大家千萬不要忘了熊市才是該去買入的時間點，所有牛市能賺到的財富都是在熊市累積起來的
祝大家週末愉快!
特別是73949~69138這裡就是我們有跟大家提到過的，大級別的小規模熊市跟大熊市的分界線(圖二)，可以理解成只要收破的話他所需的整理時間就會拉長非常多，但跌破之前都還是先看這是一個3~5個月的小規模熊市
新聞面：目前最重要的首先就是美伊局勢了，就連三方會談都因為美國目前專注在伊朗問題上所以延期到下週了，不美俄之間這幾天已經有先私下談過了，所以這一兩周可能就會是包含美伊局勢跟烏俄，目前地緣政治兩大關鍵事件的關鍵解決時間點了
另外美國政府目前已經在早些時間正式部分停擺了，不過目前參議院已經沒問題了，剩下的就是明天國會開門後的通過了，這個技術性的短暫停擺沒意外的話就會在2/2號恢復正常
數據面：(圖三)100+大鯨魚昨天+355，今天+1498，本周一共+2300，週五有跟大家聊到從數據來看在急跌之後，大鯨魚是還沒有出現比較大量的抄底動作的，所以有可能是還沒有達到他們的滿足點，就以過往的經驗來說這可能也代表下跌並未結束
在稍早的再次急跌之後，目前的確至少有出現比前幾天都還要大的買入了(圖四)，但這買入量也有點不足，所以目前合約接下來想要找機會的朋友可以持續關注他們的動向，大鯨魚他們尚未出手(最好的一個情況是假跌破重新收回關鍵位，比如80600前低、74000大級別關鍵，然後同時間鏈上出現極端情緒，大鯨魚大量買入，散戶全部賣出)那這就是非常值得去嘗試的機會了
目前遠古超級巨鯨HL上的多單已經爆光了，這次的大買多剛剛好把他1011大賣空賺到的2億多美金全部吐回去了，不過他目前包含BTC還有將近50億美金的現貨部位，循環貸的部分他目前也沒有解除，清算價在$1956，只能說從1011大賣空之前我們就開始追蹤他了，一路從看他創造奇蹟，到最後又全部吐回去了，實在是"非常精彩"，但也再次提醒到所有人，沒有帶止損的交易最終的歸途就是"爆倉"
ETH：目前包含山寨全部是一個比一個更慘，以太這邊直接貫穿多個關鍵位，短線上可以關注一下2408~2506這個小區間的支撐彈起情況，不過整體來說還是要看BTC怎麼走了
目前(10,000~100,000)大鯨魚持有總量如同預期持續下降當中，Bitmine還是持續在瘋狂質押的，不過上周開始有跟大家提到，大鯨魚持有量下降的數量是有比他們質押的數量還要更大一些，所以ETH大鯨魚這邊整體來說是有出現賣出的
結論：昨天也有跟大家聊到新任美聯儲主席Kevin Warsh的態度，具體要等他首次談話才會知道沒錯，但就以他過往的理念來說，他主打縮表的一個想法對於絕大多數山寨幣的打擊可能會很大，尤其是沒有機構買盤的，這我們之後會聊，對於比特幣來說，接下來開始就是非常重要的大級別關鍵了，準備進入到現貨買入範圍了，我會準備開始買入，大家千萬不要忘了熊市才是該去買入的時間點，所有牛市能賺到的財富都是在熊市累積起來的
祝大家週末愉快!
🚨1011 BitcoinOG"Ancient Super Whale" just liquidated 24,640 coins at $2,552 $ETH
Current position size: +188,086 ETH (worth 470 million USD)
Entry average price: $3,149
Liquidation price: $2,264
From originally making a maximum profit of 140 million USD a few weeks ago to now showing a loss of 66 million USD, it is indeed very frightening. However, he recently bought 148,000 ETH through a circular loan and is still holding, with a liquidation price at $1,954, slightly lower than the contract here.
Current position size: +188,086 ETH (worth 470 million USD)
Entry average price: $3,149
Liquidation price: $2,264
From originally making a maximum profit of 140 million USD a few weeks ago to now showing a loss of 66 million USD, it is indeed very frightening. However, he recently bought 148,000 ETH through a circular loan and is still holding, with a liquidation price at $1,954, slightly lower than the contract here.
Gold plummeted 14% in one day and silver fell 37%, mainly due to the "valuation effect" causing a long squeeze.
Yesterday, I talked to everyone about the new FED chairman Kevin Warsh, who is a very pragmatic representative of the hawks. So, when it was rumored two days ago that he might take the position, gold started to decline, and after Trump officially nominated him, both gold and silver triggered a sharp drop.
First, it is important to know that Kevin Warsh has long been an opponent of the Federal Reserve's excessive QE. He also believes that the crazy QE during the pandemic was overdone by the Federal Reserve. Now the market is paying back this debt, so he advocates for "lowering interest rates and then a more aggressive reduction of the balance sheet."
This is also why the market immediately rebounded when it heard that he would take office. The Federal Reserve's reduction of the balance sheet will lead to a decrease in the dollar's liquidity in the market, which will, of course, further support the rise of the dollar exchange rate.
First, it is important to know that Kevin Warsh has long been an opponent of the Federal Reserve's excessive QE. He also believes that the crazy QE during the pandemic was overdone by the Federal Reserve. Now the market is paying back this debt, so he advocates for "lowering interest rates and then a more aggressive reduction of the balance sheet."
This is also why the market immediately rebounded when it heard that he would take office. The Federal Reserve's reduction of the balance sheet will lead to a decrease in the dollar's liquidity in the market, which will, of course, further support the rise of the dollar exchange rate.
The major events that have occurred in this half-day period, as well as what will happen next
1. The situation between the U.S. and Iran has escalated again, and tensions are high
2. Originally, Trump said he would announce the nominee for the Chair of the Federal Reserve next week, but after the market crashed, it will be announced tomorrow. Currently, Kevin Warsh has the highest support, with a probability of over 90% that it will be him. His stance is "rapidly lowering interest rates while simultaneously reducing the balance sheet". He strongly opposes QE to intervene in the market, but this was his thought before he became chairman; everything will depend on his first remarks once confirmed in office.
3. Trump has reached an agreement with the Democrats to fund the government and avoid a shutdown. However, as the current status is recess, unless it passes through overtime before the weekend (February 1st) to next Monday (February 2nd), there may be a brief "technical shutdown".
4. A trilateral meeting among the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia will take place on February 1st in Abu Dhabi.
5. Binance announced that within 30 days, it will gradually purchase and convert $1 billion in stablecoin reserves into Bitcoin reserves.
6. Brother Ma Ji has blown up $2 million again, but he subsequently deposited $140,000 and went long on ETH at $2,729.
Finally, it seems that wherever Trump is, he can draw a door for you. The biggest risk now lies with safe-haven assets. Gold fluctuates minute by minute, showing you a market value equivalent to several Bitcoins. Such fluctuations of more than 300 points have surprisingly been seen three times in gold within half a day; this market is truly insane...
Additionally, I have never seen such despair and anger in the cryptocurrency world, including during the events of March 12 and FTX; it doesn't feel as exaggerated as it is now, so it's time to pay close attention. See you later
#贵金属巨震
1. The situation between the U.S. and Iran has escalated again, and tensions are high
2. Originally, Trump said he would announce the nominee for the Chair of the Federal Reserve next week, but after the market crashed, it will be announced tomorrow. Currently, Kevin Warsh has the highest support, with a probability of over 90% that it will be him. His stance is "rapidly lowering interest rates while simultaneously reducing the balance sheet". He strongly opposes QE to intervene in the market, but this was his thought before he became chairman; everything will depend on his first remarks once confirmed in office.
3. Trump has reached an agreement with the Democrats to fund the government and avoid a shutdown. However, as the current status is recess, unless it passes through overtime before the weekend (February 1st) to next Monday (February 2nd), there may be a brief "technical shutdown".
4. A trilateral meeting among the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia will take place on February 1st in Abu Dhabi.
5. Binance announced that within 30 days, it will gradually purchase and convert $1 billion in stablecoin reserves into Bitcoin reserves.
6. Brother Ma Ji has blown up $2 million again, but he subsequently deposited $140,000 and went long on ETH at $2,729.
Finally, it seems that wherever Trump is, he can draw a door for you. The biggest risk now lies with safe-haven assets. Gold fluctuates minute by minute, showing you a market value equivalent to several Bitcoins. Such fluctuations of more than 300 points have surprisingly been seen three times in gold within half a day; this market is truly insane...
Additionally, I have never seen such despair and anger in the cryptocurrency world, including during the events of March 12 and FTX; it doesn't feel as exaggerated as it is now, so it's time to pay close attention. See you later
#贵金属巨震
🚨1011 BitcoinOG "Ancient Super Whale" just added 19,974 coins at $3,030 $ETH long position
Current position size: +212,726 ETH (worth $640 million)
Entry average price: $3,149
Liquidation price: $2,241
The day before yesterday, he closed 30,000 coins $ETH long position, and at the same time used a revolving loan to buy 148,000 coins $ETH . Now he has bought back 20,000 coins, which is essentially a disguised large increase in position
Current position size: +212,726 ETH (worth $640 million)
Entry average price: $3,149
Liquidation price: $2,241
The day before yesterday, he closed 30,000 coins $ETH long position, and at the same time used a revolving loan to buy 148,000 coins $ETH . Now he has bought back 20,000 coins, which is essentially a disguised large increase in position
Gold continues to surge, and there will soon be a series of financial reports and announcements.
First,
Wednesday: FOMC (no rate cut expected), Microsoft, Meta, Tesla financial reports announced.
Thursday: Apple, ASML financial reports.
Friday and Saturday: Risk of U.S. government shutdown.
Also, the current standoff between the U.S. and Iran.
The current U.S. government shutdown is mainly stuck on the funding dispute for ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement). Senate Democratic leader Schumer has clearly stated that unless strict limitations are imposed on ICE and the Border Patrol's enforcement authority, the budget bill will not pass.
However, the Trump camp still hopes to maintain or strengthen immigration enforcement, which is why the likelihood of a shutdown is so high, as the views from both sides are fundamentally opposed. But even if there is a shutdown this time, it will not be a complete shutdown like last October; this time, only certain departments will be affected, and many departments have already received their full-year budget.
In addition, after the earlier announcement, many friends have been asking about the 1011BitcoinOG revolving loan issue, which is quite interesting. I will discuss it later. He has currently bought 148,000 ETH from Binance, loaned $240 million, with a liquidation price at $1,954, which is slightly lower than his liquidation price of $2,157 on Hyperliquid.
Choosing to perform such operations now, the motivation and timing are still worth noting; we will discuss it later.
First,
Wednesday: FOMC (no rate cut expected), Microsoft, Meta, Tesla financial reports announced.
Thursday: Apple, ASML financial reports.
Friday and Saturday: Risk of U.S. government shutdown.
Also, the current standoff between the U.S. and Iran.
The current U.S. government shutdown is mainly stuck on the funding dispute for ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement). Senate Democratic leader Schumer has clearly stated that unless strict limitations are imposed on ICE and the Border Patrol's enforcement authority, the budget bill will not pass.
However, the Trump camp still hopes to maintain or strengthen immigration enforcement, which is why the likelihood of a shutdown is so high, as the views from both sides are fundamentally opposed. But even if there is a shutdown this time, it will not be a complete shutdown like last October; this time, only certain departments will be affected, and many departments have already received their full-year budget.
In addition, after the earlier announcement, many friends have been asking about the 1011BitcoinOG revolving loan issue, which is quite interesting. I will discuss it later. He has currently bought 148,000 ETH from Binance, loaned $240 million, with a liquidation price at $1,954, which is slightly lower than his liquidation price of $2,157 on Hyperliquid.
Choosing to perform such operations now, the motivation and timing are still worth noting; we will discuss it later.
🚨A major transfer has occurred!!! 1011 BitcoinOG "Ancient Super Whale" has closed positions again, currently a total of 30,587 positions closed $ETH long positions
Current position size: +192,752 ETH (worth 550 million USD)
Entry average price: $3,161
Liquidation price: $2,161
Additionally, he just deposited 20M USDC into Binance, and if we include the deposits from his associated wallet address earlier, he has already deposited 200M $USDC into Binance within the last 24 hours, along with 21,000 pieces of $ETH
Currently, it is suspected that he is using a circular loan buying model to replace the long positions on Hyperliquid, possibly due to funding rate considerations, because if considering a longer-term hold (preparing for a long battle), it is indeed possible to choose to switch to a circular loan model
A new address has been monitored, which just within the last 24 hours, has used the circular loan method to buy a total of 118,000 ETH (worth 341M), the timing is quite coincidental, highly suspected to be related to BitcoinOG.
Current position size: +192,752 ETH (worth 550 million USD)
Entry average price: $3,161
Liquidation price: $2,161
Additionally, he just deposited 20M USDC into Binance, and if we include the deposits from his associated wallet address earlier, he has already deposited 200M $USDC into Binance within the last 24 hours, along with 21,000 pieces of $ETH
Currently, it is suspected that he is using a circular loan buying model to replace the long positions on Hyperliquid, possibly due to funding rate considerations, because if considering a longer-term hold (preparing for a long battle), it is indeed possible to choose to switch to a circular loan model
A new address has been monitored, which just within the last 24 hours, has used the circular loan method to buy a total of 118,000 ETH (worth 341M), the timing is quite coincidental, highly suspected to be related to BitcoinOG.
🚨1011 BitcoinOG "Ancient Super Whale" just reduced their position at $2,890 by 12,588 $ETH BTC
Current position size: +210,752 ETH (worth $610 million)
Entry average price: $3,161
Liquidation price: $2,139
This is the first time he has reduced his position since making a large buy; the other two positions $BTC $SOL are still maintained as is.
Current position size: +210,752 ETH (worth $610 million)
Entry average price: $3,161
Liquidation price: $2,139
This is the first time he has reduced his position since making a large buy; the other two positions $BTC $SOL are still maintained as is.
This week is destined to be a very turbulent one!
Currently, the yen exchange rate is surging, gold futures briefly spiked above 5100, and BTC took another hit.
Simply put, the sudden rise of the yen is due to the market betting on the possibility of a coordinated intervention by the US and Japan, causing a short-term global deleveraging, with pressure first falling on risk assets like Bitcoin.
However, if it ultimately evolves into a coordinated effort to suppress the dollar and lower US bond yields, it may actually release more liquidity in the medium to long term, which would be a good thing for Bitcoin. Right now, the NY Fed is also just hinting at a rate check to the market, indicating that they might step in if necessary.
Including the uncertainty of the US government potentially shutting down again, earlier 1011BitcoinOG deposited 20M USDC cash as margin.
Simply put, the sudden rise of the yen is due to the market betting on the possibility of a coordinated intervention by the US and Japan, causing a short-term global deleveraging, with pressure first falling on risk assets like Bitcoin.
However, if it ultimately evolves into a coordinated effort to suppress the dollar and lower US bond yields, it may actually release more liquidity in the medium to long term, which would be a good thing for Bitcoin. Right now, the NY Fed is also just hinting at a rate check to the market, indicating that they might step in if necessary.
Including the uncertainty of the US government potentially shutting down again, earlier 1011BitcoinOG deposited 20M USDC cash as margin.
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