链捕手ChainCatcher

Author: Wall Street Watch

Over the past year, investors who followed the Trump administration’s equity investments in listed companies have reaped substantial gains. However, with midterm elections approaching and the Democrats expected to reclaim at least one chamber of Congress, this equity-price feast driven by government endorsement is facing multiple risks—lawsuits, Congressional hearings, and political backlash. Any one of these could reverse the upward trend of the related stocks.
On August 29, Bloomberg reported that polls show the Democrats’ prospects are improving. Market strategists warn that once the Democrats take control of either the Senate or the House of Representatives, Congressional investigations into government-held companies will follow in succession, and both corporate brands and stock prices will face pressure. Meanwhile, a shareholder lawsuit is challenging the legality of the government’s equity investment in Intel. If the court rules that (the CHIPS Act) does not grant the Department of Commerce the power to exchange equity for subsidies, the legal basis for the entire portfolio of government-held stakes will be called into question.

ChainCatcher message: On a CNBC program, BitMine chairman Tom Lee said that after Nvidia reported strong earnings, its stock price rose, breaking the previous pattern that positive earnings failed to move the stock price. This suggests investors still care about a company’s fundamentals. Software stocks such as Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Okta also rallied in sync, reflecting that the market has responded positively to downstream AI trading and indicating that overall market reaction has been relatively healthy.
Regarding the weak performance of AI-related stocks such as Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, AMD, and Micron, Tom Lee believes that some investors may have underweighted Nvidia earlier and may now need to sell other tech stocks to raise funds to increase their holdings in Nvidia. He noted that earnings expectations for Nvidia have been sharply revised upward, but the stock price has not fully caught up yet. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is still contracting, and the current valuation remains relatively low.

ChainCatcher message: According to reports from Jin10, this week’s market trend has been driven mainly by changes in expectations for Federal Reserve policy. After the Fed Chair Powell’s remarks on Friday, the U.S. dollar surged sharply in the short term, closing at 99.69, up 0.85% for the week. Against the backdrop of rising yields on U.S. Treasuries and a stronger dollar, gold faced overall pressure. Gold fell a cumulative 3.24% this week; spot silver dropped 3.82% this week.
Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time): Monday: TBA, the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors runs until September 1. Tuesday at 17:00, Eurozone August CPI data; Eurozone July unemployment rate; Tuesday at 22:00, U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. July JOLTs job openings, and U.S. July construction spending m/m rate. Tuesday: TBA, the 2026 SCO member states’ head-of-state council meeting. Wednesday at 20:15, U.S. August ADP employment. Wednesday at 22:00, U.S. July factory orders m/m rate. Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions. Thursday at 16:00, the Eurozone August services PMI final reading. Thursday at 17:00, the Eurozone July PPI m/m rate. Thursday at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29 in the U.S., and Fed Governor Waller’s interview. Friday at 03:00, a keynote opening speech by 2026 FOMC voting member Hammack at the “Fed Community” event. Friday at 20:30, U.S. August unemployment rate, U.S. August seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment, U.S. August average hourly earnings y/y and m/m rates.

ChainCatcher message: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that during this round of Bitcoin rallying to $80,000, the average unrealized profit margin of short-term holders (STHs) is close to 15%. The currently estimated cost basis is about $70,100, and the profit level has reached the highest since July 2025. This range is often accompanied by a significant increase in profits, while also making the holdings mentality of short-term holders more unstable; some investors may choose to take profits. Therefore, it is not unexpected that Bitcoin temporarily stalls near the $80,000 mark.