Libertycity_Niko

Mixed signals from on-chain flows today.

Per Whale Alert, three unknown wallets moved 3,225 $BTC (about $239M) onto exchanges within roughly 40 minutes this afternoon, 2,392 BTC of it to Binance. Coins heading to exchanges usually means someone is getting ready to sell or hedge.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs keep bleeding too. Per Lookonchain, they saw a net 1,649 BTC out on the day and about $1.15B out over 7 days, while ETH ETFs lost roughly $263M in a week.

The other side: 250M $USDC was just minted at the USDC Treasury, and fresh stablecoins often end up as buying power.

My take: sellers still have the edge while BTC sits near 73.9K under the post-CPI cloud. I'd want ETF flows to turn green before trusting a bounce. If the 72.7K low breaks on a daily close, those deposits were the early warning.

#Bitcoin #OnChain #WhaleAlert #ETFflows
Not financial advice.

$SOL is testing the floor of its August breakout.

Yesterday's Binance low of $81.34 was its weakest print since Aug 19, the day SOL jumped from about $77 to $85 in one candle. Price is near $83.70 now, about 33% under its 120-day high of $124.95 and down from roughly $95.50 on Nov 1. Fear & Greed sits at 29.

My view through Sunday Nov 15:
- Holds $81.30 and gets a daily close above $86.80 → I'd watch the $89 to $90 area next, where SOL closed on Nov 5 to 7.
- Daily close under $81.30 → the August gap opens up and $76 to $77 is the next real support.

Lean: bearish while it stays under $86.80 on the daily. I'm wrong if it closes a day above $90 this week.

#Solana #SOL #CryptoMarket #PricePrediction

NFA

The meme coin that was handed to Vitalik 🐕

Shiba Inu launched in August 2020 from an anonymous founder called Ryoshi. The strange part: half of the 1 quadrillion supply was sent to Vitalik Buterin's wallet without him asking.

In May 2021 he gave 50 trillion SHIB (about $1.2B on paper) to India's Covid relief fund, and SHIB fell roughly 36% in a day per Forbes. Days later he burned 410.24 trillion SHIB, about 41% of all supply, saying he didn't want to be "a locus of power."

Then the mania. SHIB topped near $0.0000885 on Binance on Oct 28, 2021.

Today it trades near $0.00000444 on Binance, about 95% below that peak.

The lesson: the biggest burn in its history made headlines but didn't hold the price. Supply cuts only matter if demand stays, and meme coins run on attention that moves on fast.

$SHIB $DOGE
#ShibaInu #CryptoHistory #MemeCoins #CryptoLessons
Not financial advice.

Hot CPI, and crypto took the hit first.

US CPI rose 0.4% in October vs 0.3% expected, and core came in at 0.3% vs 0.2%. Bitcoin dropped about 1.2% within minutes of the print and alts fell harder. The 10-year yield pushed close to 5%, and a Fed hike at the December 8-9 meeting is now close to fully priced.

My read for this week: the 25 bps hike is mostly in the price already. What would hurt more is real talk of 50 bps, which Fed Governor Waller has floated. $BTC sits near 74.1K with a 24h low around 72.7K on Binance. If that low holds and yields cool off, a slow grind back toward 76K is possible. Lose 72.7K on a daily close and I'd expect the 70K area to get tested.

Fear & Greed is at 29, so nobody is surprised by bad news anymore. That is not a bottom signal on its own, just less fuel for panic.

#HotCPIDecemberHikePriced #Fed #Bitcoin #MacroCrypto
Not financial advice.

Call check on $XRP: on Nov 9 I said a daily close below $1.09 would open the way to the $1.00 area. It closed near $1.057 on Nov 10, the sixth red day in a row, and tagged a low of $1.031 on Binance. So that one played out.

Now it's around $1.06, down about 21% from the $1.34 close on Nov 4, with Fear & Greed stuck at 29.

My view through Sun Nov 15: the big round $1.00 is the line. If it holds and XRP gets a daily close back above $1.09, a relief move toward $1.15 is on the table. A daily close under $1.00 likely means another leg lower, since there is no recent support below it.

Still bearish while under $1.09, and I'm wrong if it closes above $1.15 this week.

#XRP #CryptoMarket #PriceAnalysis
Not financial advice.

Two very different ETH wallets moved on this dip.

Per Lookonchain, the "7 Siblings" wallet, known for buying crashes, bought 10,792 $ETH for about $22M at an average near $2,038 after the CPI sell-off. Meanwhile, an Ethereum Foundation-linked wallet sold another 1,000 ETH (about $2.03M), its second sale in two days.

ETH is around $2,066 now after a $2,006 low on Binance, and Fear & Greed sits at 29.

My read: $2,000 is the line that matters this week. If it holds and ETH gets back above $2,132 (yesterday's high), the dip buyers look smart. A daily close under $2,000 and I'd expect another leg lower before any real bounce. One big buyer is not a bottom signal on its own.

#ETH #Ethereum #OnChain #CryptoMarket

NFA

$BNB is losing the floor I was watching, so here's an honest update on my Nov 8 call.

For 10 days BNB sat in a tight $680 to $723 box. I leaned slightly bullish while $690 held. That lean was wrong: after the hot CPI print, BNB slipped to $670.06 on Binance today, the lowest since Aug 21, and trades near $674 as I write.

What I'm watching through Fri Nov 13:
- A daily close (5:30am IST) under $680 confirms the breakdown. The next zone I'd expect is $653 to $655 where the late-August breakout started.
- A quick reclaim and daily close above $692 would make this a fake-out and put the $700 to $723 range back in play.

Bearish while under $680. BTC near $73,300 and a weak ETH don't help.

#BNB #CryptoMarket #PricePrediction
NFA

Bitcoin slipped under $73,000 tonight, about two hours after the hotter US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2% expected).

On Binance the 9pm IST candle wicked to $72,866 before bouncing to around $73,250 now. Per Watcher Guru, roughly $200M of longs were liquidated in 15 minutes, and Lookonchain shows spot ETFs lost $228M in $BTC and $138M in $ETH on the latest daily print. ETH tagged $2,006 on the day.

My take: this is the hot-CPI path I flagged earlier today, and the $73,000 area is now doing the work. A daily close back above $74,000 by Thursday would make this look like a flush. A daily close under $72,800 opens room toward $71,000 and lower. Fear & Greed sits at 32, so sentiment is already shaky.

#Bitcoin #CPI #CryptoMarket

NFA

$ETH took the CPI hit harder than most. Core came in at 0.3% vs 0.2% expected, and ETH wicked from $2,109 to $2,028 within the hour before bouncing to about $2,070 now.

That wick went straight through Sunday's $2,060 low, the level I said would matter. Buyers stepped in, but a wick isn't a reclaim.

My call through Friday Nov 13: a daily close under $2,060 opens the $2,000 round number next. A daily close back above $2,160 (yesterday's high) would flip me neutral and put $2,206 back in play. Until then I lean bearish, with Fear & Greed at 32 and every bounce this week getting sold.

What makes me wrong: a daily close above $2,160 by Friday.

#ETH #CPI #CryptoMarket
NFA

US CPI lands tonight at 7:00pm IST, and this one matters more than usual for crypto.

Consensus is 0.3% headline and 0.2% core month on month, after 0.6% and 0.3% in September. No yearly figure this time because of last year's shutdown gap.

The twist: Fed Governor Waller said he'd back a December hike even on a softer print, and a bigger 0.5% hike if core comes in at 0.3% or higher. So core is the number that moves things.

Where we are: $BTC sits near $74,400 after a week boxed between $73,500 and $75,600 on Binance. Fear & Greed is 32, BTC dominance about 60%, funding barely positive.

My read for the next day or two: core at 0.2% or lower gives a relief push to the top of the range and maybe a test of $76,000 by Thursday. Core at 0.3% or higher and I'd expect the $73,500 low to go, with the Aug 21 low near $73,000 next and thin support under it. I'm wrong on the bearish side if BTC closes a day above $76,000 after a hot print.

#CPI #Fed #BTC #CryptoMarket

NFA, not financial advice.

Mt. Gox: the bitcoin exchange that still isn't done paying people back 🕰️

In 2013 Mt. Gox handled most of the world's bitcoin trading, by common estimates around 70%. On Feb 7, 2014 it froze withdrawals. Three weeks later, on Feb 28, it filed for bankruptcy in Tokyo, saying about 850,000 BTC were gone. Roughly 200,000 BTC later turned up in an old wallet.

Creditors waited about ten years. Big repayments only started in July 2024, with around 142,000 BTC leaving the estate.

The twist: on Oct 16 the trustee pushed the deadline again, from Oct 31, 2026 to Oct 31, 2027. That's the fourth one-year delay in a row. Wallets tracked by Arkham still hold about 34,400 BTC, roughly $2.56B at today's price near $74,400 per coin, and nothing has moved since June.

Lesson: a balance on an exchange is a promise, not coins in your hands. And whenever a "Gox dump" scare goes around, check the chain before the headline.

$BTC
#CryptoHistory #MtGox #Bitcoin #CryptoLessons
Not financial advice.

Two very different kinds of Bitcoin money showed up on-chain this morning.

On one side, miner MARA moved another 500 $BTC out today. Per Lookonchain, it has sold about 13,597 BTC since Oct 1 at an average near $81,039 a coin, well above today's price of roughly $74,700 on spot.

On the other side, a brand-new wallet pulled 1,489 BTC (about $111M worth) from BitGo, and three fresh wallets took around 1,003 BTC off Binance in the last 24 hours. BlackRock also told Barron's it is seeing record demand from big holders swapping self-custodied coins into IBIT.

My read: miners are selling to keep the lights on, and patient money is soaking it up. That looks like floor-building, not a breakout signal, and tonight's CPI print can still swing things either way.

#Bitcoin #OnChain #BTC #CPI
Not financial advice.

$SOL has printed a lower high every day since Nov 4, sliding from about $98 to under $89, and this week it hit its lowest level since August 20.

The floor is $85 for now. It was tested on Nov 8 and again on Nov 9, and it held both times.

My view through Friday Nov 13, with US CPI landing tonight:
- A daily close under $85 and I'd expect a slide toward the $76 to $78 area, where SOL broke out in mid-August.
- A daily close back above $91 breaks the lower-high pattern and puts $95 to $98 back on the table.

Slight bearish lean while it stays under $91. I'm wrong if it closes above $91 by Friday.

Fear & Greed sits at 32, so a soft CPI number could squeeze shorts fast. Size small either way.

#SOL #Solana #CryptoMarket #CPI
NFA

CPI day. October US inflation lands at 7:00pm IST today, and the whole market is staring at one number: core CPI.

Consensus is 0.3% for headline and 0.2% for core on the month, down from September's 0.6% and 0.3% readings. There's no yearly figure this time, because October 2025 prices were never collected during the shutdown.

$BTC sits near $74,500 after five red weekly candles and a Sunday dip to about $73,500 per Base Camp. Prediction markets still lean toward a December rate hike, and Fear & Greed is at 32.

My read: core at 0.2% or lower should give a relief bounce, and a daily close above $76,000 would tell me it's real. A third 0.3% core print in a row and I'd expect $73,000 to get tested, especially with ETF demand this weak. The first few minutes after CPI often fake out, so I'm waiting for the daily close before trusting either move.

$ETH $BNB
#CPI #Bitcoin #Fed #Macro

NFA

A group calling itself ShinyHunters claims it has 335 million Binance user records, private keys included, and is asking $900,000 for them. Binance says it found no sign of a breach and points out it doesn't store user private keys or plaintext passwords. CZ called it obviously fake: anyone holding real keys would move the funds, not sell a file.

I think the leak is fake. The phishing that follows won't be. Expect emails and texts saying your data leaked and you need to "verify" your account.

What I'm doing:
- Ignoring every breach-notice link and opening the app directly
- Keeping the anti-phishing code on, so real Binance emails show it
- Using an authenticator app or passkey, not SMS
- Remembering that support never asks for a seed phrase or 2FA code

A fake leak costs nothing to post. One wrong click can cost everything.

$BNB #Binance #CryptoSecurity #Phishing #SAFU
Not financial advice.

$BNB check-in on my Nov 8 call. I said a daily close under $680 would mean a quick slide, and I'd lean bullish while $690 holds.

What happened: Sunday closed near $685, so $690 slipped but $680 held on the close. Today's wick went to about $673 on Binance, then buyers pulled it back to around $690. Fear & Greed is still 29 and CPI lands tomorrow.

So the honest read is that my bullish lean got weaker, but the call isn't broken yet. I care about closes, not wicks.

Through Fri Nov 13: a daily close under $680 means I was wrong, since that level has held on every close since Oct 29. Holding $680 and getting back above $700 keeps the move toward the $723 breakout line in play, and a daily close above $723 still targets $745 to $760.

Neutral to slightly bullish, nothing more until CPI.

#BNB #BNBChain #CPI #PriceAnalysis
Not financial advice.

Strategy is now underwater on its Bitcoin stack, and it just bought more anyway.

Per Saylor's Monday update, the company added 1,036 $BTC and now holds 850,364 BTC. Its last disclosed average cost is about $75,451 per coin, and BTC is trading near $74,500 as I write, so the pile sits roughly $800M under cost on paper. A month ago that same stack showed around $10B in paper gains.

Strive kept buying too, adding 29 BTC to reach 43,153 BTC.

My take: paper losses alone don't force anyone to sell spot coins, so I'm not reading this as a crash trigger. The real thing to watch is how these treasury firms keep raising money while their stock premiums shrink. If BTC reclaims $76,000 the headline flips back fast; if it slides toward $70,000 the "treasury companies are trapped" story gets loud.

#Bitcoin #MicroStrategy #CryptoNews #BTC
Not financial advice.

$BTC just printed its lowest prices since late August. Sunday's dip hit about $73,510 on Binance and today it's trading near $74,400 with Fear & Greed at 29 and US CPI out tomorrow.

On Nov 6 I said a daily close under $75,200 would point toward $73,000 next. That close came on Sunday, and the low got within about $500 of the target.

My view through Fri Nov 13: the $73,500 area is the floor to watch. A daily close below it leaves little support until the $70,000 area that August's breakout ran through. If BTC instead gets a daily close above $76,200 (it hasn't closed above that since Nov 4), I'd expect a squeeze toward $78,000 next.

I lean bearish while it stays under $76,200, and I'm wrong if it closes above $78,000 this week.

#BTC #Bitcoin #CPI #PriceAnalysis Not financial advice.

Four years ago today, $SOL had its worst day ever: down about 42% on Nov 9, 2022, as FTX fell apart.

The rise: SOL launched around $0.22 in 2020 and peaked near $260 in November 2021 on the NFT and DeFi boom.

The fall: FTX and Alameda were among its biggest backers, so the market treated SOL like an FTX asset. By late December 2022 it closed under $10 at one point, about 96% off the top. The chain kept producing blocks the whole time.

The comeback: 2023 was SOL's best year, up roughly 900%. It then set a new high near $295 in January 2025, riding the memecoin rush.

Now: SOL trades around $86 after a low near $62 in June, about 70% below that peak.

The lesson: a network surviving doesn't mean the price is safe, and who holds the supply matters as much as the tech.

#Solana #SOL #CryptoHistory
Not financial advice.

A wallet that sat untouched for more than 2 years just woke up in the middle of this ETH dump.

Per Lookonchain, a dormant whale withdrew 34,601 $ETH (about $73.75M) from Binance over roughly 3 hours today. ETH trades near $2,094 on Binance, down about 6.5% in 24h, after tagging $2,060 on Sunday. Yesterday I said a break of the $2,206 floor likely meant a trip to $2,174 and it went straight through.

My read: big exchange outflows during a flush usually mean coins heading to cold storage, not to a sell button. One whale doesn't fix the trend though. I'd want ETH back above $2,206 before calling a bottom, and a daily close under $2,060 means this buyer was early.

CPI on Tuesday is the next test.

#ETH #OnChain #WhaleWatch #CryptoMarket
NFA