计然

Oct. 26 market recap: U.S. stocks and the AI trade rebounded, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 2.8%; crypto stocks moved the other way, with MSTR down 4.2%. Strategy made no purchases last week. $BTC swung back and forth all day before closing flat, ending below the bottom of the range for the fifth consecutive day.

[Market]
- “BTC 80,151,” 0.00%; high of 80,845 (the 23:00 Beijing-time hour), low of 79,369 (the 11:00 hour). It held above Oct. 24’s 79,221 low; perpetual futures hit a low of 79,322.
- The close was 2,412 below the 82,563 range floor, marking the fifth consecutive close below it and the 13th day this month.
- Price action: South Korean stocks led losses in early Asian trading, dragging BTC down to 79,400; it recovered to above 80,000 in the afternoon. It fell to 79,700 before U.S. markets opened at 21:00, then rallied to 80,800 at 23:00.
- Liquidations for the day: $49.8 million in longs / $32.7 million in shorts; both sides were liquidated. BTC: $13 million in longs / $9.2 million in shorts.
- Perpetual open interest: 95,514 coins, up 1,830 in a day. Open interest rose by 1,900 coins during the Oct. 24 decline, fell by 1,482 on the 25th, then increased again as the market closed flat on the 26th. Funding rates rose over three intervals, reaching +0.0100%.
- Fear & Greed Index: 48, neutral, versus 50 previously; Kalshi puts the probability of an October rate hike at about 8%.
- Strategy 8-K: It neither bought nor sold BTC from Oct. 19–25. During the same week, it spent $204.9 million repurchasing its own STRC preferred shares.

[Stocks]
- U.S. stocks: S&P 500 +0.70%, Nasdaq +0.82%, Dow +0.28%; “Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +2.82%”; VIX 18.39. Nvidia +2.4%, Micron +3.0%, CoreWeave +1.8%.
- Crypto stocks moved the other way: “MSTR −4.2%,” COIN −2.9%, IBIT −1.6%.
- Asian stocks: KOSPI −1.46%, Samsung −1.2%; Nikkei −0.80%; Hang Seng +0.51%. MiniMax −7.2%, giving back about half of Friday’s gains but remaining above its HK$165 IPO price. Shanghai Composite +0.19%, CSI 300 −0.04%; broad-market ETFs saw a fourth surge in volume and were lifted back to flat by the close.
- European stocks: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.79%, DAX +0.91%.

[U.S. Treasuries and macro]
- U.S. Treasuries (Treasury Department figures, versus Oct. 23): 2-year 4.68%, “10-year 5.00%,” 30-year 5.31%.
- Gold 4,018 (+0.3%); U.S. Dollar Index 102.02; crude oil is in a contract rollover period, with Brent around 110.5 and WTI around 101.5—levels only.

[Altcoins]
- Among 42 USDT pairs with over $5 million in trading volume: median +0.48%, 25 up and 16 down; 4 rose more than 5%, and 3 fell more than 5%.
- “$ETH 2,324.6” −0.2%, SOL −0.4%, XRP +1.0%, BNB +0.6%, DOGE +1.1%, HYPE +2.7%, ZEC +1.6%, UNI +3.4%.
- Top gainers: ERA +8.5%, QNT +7.3%, BABY +6.9%; top decliners: T −13.7%, BMT −8.8%, DODO −7.5%. The cause could not be verified, so no attribution is made.

[This week’s calendar] Beijing time
- Around 02:00 on Oct. 29: Federal Reserve rate decision and statement (meeting on Oct. 27–28).
- Early morning, Oct. 29: Microsoft earnings (after U.S. markets close on Oct. 28).
- Early morning, Oct. 29: Alphabet earnings, according to the earnings calendar.
- Early morning, Oct. 30: Amazon, Coinbase, and Strategy earnings, according to the earnings calendar.
- Coinbase and Strategy are most relevant to crypto. Strategy made no purchases last week, so whether it explains why on its earnings call will be worth watching.

[What to watch] Semiconductors rallied sharply, but crypto stocks and BTC did not follow: the two biggest buyers—ETFs and Strategy—are both scaling back. BTC has been swinging between 79,221 and 80,800 over the past few days, while open interest is rising and funding rates are increasing. The Fed decision and tech earnings are clustered between the early hours of Oct. 29 and the morning of Oct. 30.

Has the biggest buyer hit pause? Strategy ($MSTR ) didn’t buy a single $BTC last week, and instead used the money to buy back its own preferred stock

【What the 8-K says】Filed with the SEC on October 26
- October 19–25: Sold no shares through at-the-market offerings, and neither bought nor sold any Bitcoin
- Spent $204.9 million that week to repurchase 2.07 million shares of STRC preferred stock, using cash on hand
- After the buyback, cash on hand was down to just $242.4 million; it also has $4.83 billion in reserves specifically for preferred dividends and debt interest
- Holds 848,517 BTC, at an average cost of about $75,446

【Bitcoin buying down, buybacks up】
- October 5–11: Bought 250 BTC; repurchased $192.4 million of STRC
- October 12–18: Bought 267 BTC; repurchased $193.1 million
- October 19–25: Bought 0 BTC; repurchased $204.9 million
- Buybacks totaled about $590 million over three weeks, while Bitcoin purchases came to less than $44 million; on October 19, the buyback authorization was raised from $2 billion to $3 billion

【Why buy back preferred stock?】
STRC’s selling point is that its price stays close to its $100 par value. It closed at $99.17 on October 26. The company says it will adjust the 12% dividend rate only once the stock is holding near $100. The announcement didn’t explain the reason for the buyback, but it’s likely for three reasons:
① Support the price back to $100: Falling below par would call the promise of “stability” into question
② Reopen the financing channel: STRC is a key source of funds for buying Bitcoin. If it trades below par, it’s hard to sell, and $17.5 billion of its share-issuance authorization remains unused
③ The buyback itself makes financial sense: Buying back a share for around $99 saves the company a 12% annual dividend payment

【The market’s take】U.S. market close on October 26
- MSTR closed at $139.82, down 4.2%—more than 50% below its year-ago high of $295.63; COIN fell 2.9%, IBIT fell 1.6%
- The same day, the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Nasdaq rose 0.8%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.8%—crypto and AI stocks moved in the opposite direction
- BTC is now around $79,900, just 6% above Strategy’s average cost; spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $310 million in net outflows in October through October 23. The two biggest buyers are both pulling back

Not buying for a week doesn’t mean Strategy has abandoned its strategy. Do you think it’s catching its breath, or is this a signal?

A fourth intervention by the “national team”? A different playbook this time! Supporting only the CSI 300, not AI

On October 26, those nine broad-market ETFs saw another surge in trading volume: a combined 67.5 billion yuan, compared with just over 30 billion on October 19 and 21.

【Who got support this time】
- The four CSI 300 ETFs traded a combined 32.7 billion yuan—the highest total in this round. E Fund’s CSI 300 ETF alone traded 14.1 billion yuan, versus 6.1 billion on October 23.
- The CSI 300 was down as much as 1.2% intraday, then rebounded late in the session to close down just 0.04%. It remains 18.9% below its June 22 high, holding above the −20% bear-market threshold.
- Those left unsupported: the ChiNext Index fell 1.71%, and the STAR 50 fell 2.23%. The ChiNext ETF and STAR 50 ETF each traded over 12 billion yuan—volume rose as prices fell.

【All four interventions side by side】
- October 15: about 62.9 billion yuan; the CSI 300 fell 1.23% that day and kept sliding afterward.
- October 22: about 75.9 billion yuan; the index fell 1.84% that day and closed in bear-market territory.
- October 23: 83.9 billion yuan; down 1.9% intraday, then closed up 1.71%—a deep V-shaped rebound.
- October 26: 67.5 billion yuan; down 1.2% intraday, then closed flat.

Trading volume is shrinking, and the focus is narrowing: the broad-market index was supported, while AI and growth stocks were left to fall on their own.

【BTC on the same day】
- In the Asian morning session, South Korean stocks led the declines (KOSPI −1.46%, Nikkei −0.80%, Hang Seng +0.51%), dragging $BTC down to 79,369 during the 11:00 a.m. hour Beijing time.
- It recovered above 80,000 in the afternoon and is now at 80,353, moving sideways as it awaits this week’s tech earnings and the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting.

The “national team” intervention is inferred from unusually high ETF trading volumes; there has been no official confirmation.

How many more times do you think they’ll step in this week?

Musk says 200+ AI compute clouds will “die off in batches, like guppies.” Even investment-grade $SPCX (SpaceX) is borrowing at rates close to junk-bond levels

【What Musk said】Beijing time, Oct. 26, 03:11
- Over the past few weeks, the bond market has practically shut its doors to companies whose revenue comes almost entirely from AI data centers
- SpaceX just borrowed $40 billion to buy GPUs, relying on its investment-grade rating and revenue from Starlink and launches
- More than 200 emerging compute clouds will die off in batches and be consolidated; few will make it through

【How expensive is the borrowing?】
- All three agencies rate SpaceX investment-grade: S&P BBB, Moody’s Baa1, Fitch BBB+
- The older bonds issued in June have a weighted average coupon of 5.855%
- For this new debt, the estimated rates reported by Semafor on Oct. 22 were about 7.75% for the tranche secured by chips and about 8.3% for the lowest-rated tranche
- On the same day, the U.S. bond market’s averages were: 5.79% for investment grade, 6.01% for BBB-rated bonds, and 8.14% for “junk bonds”
- An investment-grade company is now paying rates close to junk-bond levels to borrow for AI

【Does this mean the AI bubble is about to burst?】
- One way it looks like it: money is getting more expensive and lenders are getting pickier. CoreWeave, which has no other revenue, had an unsecured-bond yield of about 15% in mid-October
- One way it doesn’t: the money hasn’t dried up. SpaceX got its loan, and OpenAI is still negotiating a $30 billion financing deal at a $1.25 trillion valuation
- Remember, Musk is a player in this industry: xAI is competing with these compute clouds for GPUs, power, and funding, so their collapse would benefit SpaceX
- The more likely scenario is that companies without revenue get cleared out first, while money concentrates in big players with cash flow

Do you think this is the beginning of the bubble bursting, or a shakeout where the big fish eat the little fish?

Oct 25 market overview: A narrow-range drift lower on Sunday; $BTC closed at 80,154, marking the 4th consecutive day below the bottom of the range. After U.S. stock futures opened on the morning of the 26th Beijing time, price dipped to 79,846, but did not break the Oct 24 low

【Market】
- “BTC 80,154” −0.91%, high 81,034 (the 11:00 hour Beijing time), low 79,846 (the 07:00 hour on the 26th); perpetuals low 79,809, still above the Oct 15 perpetuals low of 79,732
- Closed 2,409 below the 82,563 range floor, marking the 4th consecutive close below it and the 12th such day this month
- Price action: moved sideways between 80,300 and 81,000 during the day, with very little range; dipped after U.S. stock futures opened for overnight trading at 07:00 on the 26th, with $12.2 million in long liquidations during that hour
- Full-day liquidations: $41.6 million longs / $20.4 million shorts, far below the $240 million on Oct 24. BTC: $6.5 million longs / $2.7 million shorts
- Perpetual open interest: 93,684 coins, down 1,482 in a day; most of the 1,900 coins added back on Oct 24 have been given back. Funding rates were slightly positive in all three periods
- Fear & Greed Index: 50, neutral, versus 54 previously; Kalshi puts the probability of an October rate hike at 8%
- BTC spot ETFs: approximately −$310 million cumulative net flows in October (through Oct 23)

【Weekend markets】
- U.S. stocks and Treasuries were closed. In Sunday overnight trading, S&P and Nasdaq futures were essentially unchanged from Friday’s close; crude was in its contract-roll period, with Brent around 110.6 and WTI around 102.1; gold around 4,012, flat
- Binance stock contracts: Hynix +1.5%, KORU +0.9%, Micron +0.6%, QQQ +0.1%, MSTR −0.8%
- The weekend’s focus was U.S.-Iran rhetoric: On Oct 24, Trump said he was considering striking Iran again as soon as “tomorrow,” but that a deal was also possible. No reports of military action so far

【Altcoins】
- Among 49 USDT pairs with trading volume above $5 million: median −0.95%, 12 up and 37 down; 2 gained over 5%, while 7 fell over 5%
- “$ETH 2,329.9” −1.2%, SOL −0.9%, XRP −0.3%, BNB −0.2%, DOGE −1.0%, HYPE −0.4%, ZEC +0.5%, LINK −1.5%, SUI −1.9%
- Top gainers: QNT +6.1%, ENA +5.8%, NEAR +2.1%, INJ +2.0%; top losers: ANIME −21.0%, TREE −16.0%, KAT −13.0%. The cause could not be verified, so no attribution
- BMT −14.2%: After gaining 68% in a single day on Oct 24 following its listing in a KRW trading pair on Upbit, it began giving back gains the next day

【What to watch】As Asian markets open on Monday, Oct 26, watch the KOSPI first; Hynix and Korean stock contracts were strong over the weekend. BTC has failed to reclaim 82,563 for 4 consecutive days; 79,732 remains a key level below, while the Oct 24 intraday low of 79,221 is the recent low. This week brings the Fed’s rate decision and earnings from major tech companies

OpenAI’s valuation target for its latest funding round has dropped from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion!!! OpenAI has lowered its price—so why are the contracts still trading at the old price?

【What happened】
- On October 22, the FT and Bloomberg reported that the funding round is about $30 billion, with the valuation target down by $150 billion, or roughly 11%.
- CNBC says investors from the UAE are leading the round; Bloomberg says negotiations are in the final stages, but nothing has been signed yet.

【How the contracts are trading】
- Binance pre-IPO contract $OPENAI : around 1,478 before the news broke, and around 1,400 on October 25—a drop of just 5%.
- 1,400 implies a valuation of about $1.40 trillion, 12% above the price in this funding round.
- In the same market, the Anthropic contract is trading at 1,859, implying a valuation of about $1.86 trillion—30% higher than OpenAI’s.

【What to make of it】
- The funding price is negotiated one-on-one by major institutions, while the contract price is set by traders in the secondary market.
- After the news broke, the contract fell only 5%, and it’s still well above the funding price. Either the market thinks it will climb back after the IPO, or the price hasn’t caught up with the news yet.

Do you think the contract will move toward $1.25 trillion, or was this round’s funding price a bargain?

$BTC has fallen from its September 21 peak of 87,396 to 80,816 on October 25—a drawdown of just 7.5%.

But a lot of people around me have already seen their earlier gains wiped out! Some are down 20%, and some have even been liquidated and lost everything!!!

What if Monday, October 26 really turns into a Black Monday…
I can’t even imagine it. I really can’t 🫣

If you don't know, ask 🙋

To trade US stock indices:
- On Binance, you can use the “SPY” or “QQQ” contracts
- On OKX, you can use “US500” (S&P 500) or “US100” (Nasdaq 100)

So, what can you use to trade A-share indices, such as the CSI 300?

October 24 market overview: During weekend trading, price briefly fell to 79,221, its lowest since September 18, breaking below the October 15 low before recovering to close at 80,888. It closed below the range floor for a third straight day. Altcoin BMT gained 68% against the Korean won on Upbit.

【Market】
- 「$BTC 80,888」−0.37%; high 81,214 (the 08:00 hour Beijing time), low 79,221 (the 23:00 hour). The perpetual futures intraday low was 79,179, breaking below the October 15 perpetual low of 79,732.
- The close was 1,675 below the range floor of 82,563, marking a third consecutive daily close below it and the 11th such day this month.
- Price action: It moved sideways in a narrow 80,500–81,000 range during the day. The first wave of selling began at 22:10 Beijing time; a second wave from 23:00 to 23:20 drove price to around 79,300, before it rebounded to close at 80,900.
- Full-day liquidations: $243 million in longs / $35.6 million in shorts. Long liquidations totaled $134 million and $80.7 million in the 22:00 and 23:00 hours, respectively. BTC: $75.9 million in longs / $6.9 million in shorts.
- Perpetual open interest was 95,166 coins, up 1,900 on the day, with an intraday high of 96,295. After about 4,700 coins were deleveraged over the previous two days, open interest rose rather than fell after the decline. Funding rates were slightly positive and near zero across all three periods.
- Fear & Greed Index: 54, neutral, versus 51 previously. Kalshi’s October rate-hike probability was about 7%, down from 9% the previous day.
- Binance stock contracts traded as usual over the weekend: MSTR −1.1%, Nvidia +0.5%, Micron +0.5%, QQQ −0.1%. Equities were essentially unchanged.

【Altcoins】
- Of 55 USDT pairs with more than $5 million in trading volume, the median move was −1.31%; 12 rose and 43 fell. Two gained more than 5%, while six fell more than 5%.
- 「$ETH 2,358.8」−1.2%, SOL −0.5%, XRP +0.4%, BNB +0.1%, DOGE −1.2%, HYPE −0.6%, ZEC +2.1%, LINK −1.7%, SUI −2.3%, NEAR −4.1%.
- 「BMT +68.2%」: At 10:35 Beijing time on the 24th, Upbit announced the listing of a Korean won trading pair for BMT (Bubblemaps). At 11:00, it announced a trading event involving 6 million BMT.
- Other top gainers: INIT +6.3%, ERA +3.8%, ZRO +3.2%. Top decliners: ARK −17.6%, GTC −12.0%, PHA −9.7%, ALT −8.4%. The causes could not be verified, so no attribution is made.

【What to watch】79,732 was briefly breached intraday before price recovered. If the October 25 close falls below that level, the next reference point is the September 18 intraday low of 76,296. Open interest added 1,900 coins after the drop, while funding rates did not rise, suggesting the new positions may not be chasing longs. The Asian market open on Monday, October 26, will be the first test. After three consecutive closes below the 82,563 range floor, it is shifting from support to resistance.

$BTC Spot ETFs saw $770 million in outflows over two days, giving back 70% of the inflows from the previous three days!

【Past week】
- Oct. 19–21: $1.07 billion in net inflows over three days; IBIT alone brought in $665 million on the 19th
- Oct. 22: $636 million in net outflows, the largest single-day outflow since June 25
- Oct. 23: Another $138 million flowed out. Two-day total: −$774 million

【October so far (through the 23rd)】
- All spot BTC ETFs saw $314 million in net outflows, with inflows on 9 of 17 trading days and outflows on 8
- BlackRock’s IBIT saw $755 million in net inflows
- Fidelity’s FBTC: −$589 million; ARK’s ARKB: −$315 million; Grayscale’s GBTC: −$131 million

The money hasn’t all left—it looks more like it’s switching vehicles: other ETFs are seeing outflows while IBIT is seeing inflows. BTC fell 2.9% this month, from 83,624 to 81,189.

With money piling into BlackRock, do you think investors are bullish on the market outlook, or just drawn to its size and liquidity?

We tested the IQ of 9 large language models, and the results were pretty interesting 😂

Ask AI: Explain this joke in one sentence:
A girl in my class owed me 200 yuan and said she couldn’t pay me back. I said, “Why not pay me back in kind?” We went to a hotel, where a room cost 180 yuan. I realized I hadn’t brought my wallet, and she said, “I’ll take care of it.” When I saw her pull two 100-yuan bills out of her bag, I got furious, grabbed the money, and walked out without looking back.

8 of them interpreted the story almost exactly the same way, while the remaining one came up with a completely different interpretation. Which model do you think is the smartest? Copy this question and ask your AI—you can test the IQ of the AI you’re paying for 😏

October 23 market roundup: Asia rebounded first, with MiniMax +16.7% and the CSI 300 making a deep V; defensive U.S. stocks gave back gains, and the Dow fell 1.2%; BTC traded sideways during the day, then plunged in the early hours to 80,513, closing below the bottom of its range for a second straight day

【Markets】
- 「$BTC 81,189」−0.28%; high 82,061 (the 22:00 hour, Beijing time), low 80,513 (the 07:00 hour on the 24th); closed 1,374 below the range floor at 82,563, ending below it for a second straight day and for the 10th day this month
- Price action: traded in a narrow range between 81,100 and 82,000 during the day; touched 82,061 around the U.S. market open at 22:00, then was pushed back down. During the 06:00 hour on the 24th, it plunged to around 80,500 before recovering to 81,200
- Liquidations for the day: $183 million in longs / $72 million in shorts; $82.7 million in long liquidations during the 06:00 hour on the 24th. BTC longs $35.9 million / shorts $5.5 million
- Perpetual open interest: 93,266 coins, down 2,645 in a day; deleveraging for two straight days, down about 4,700 in total. Funding rates were slightly positive across all three periods
- Fear and Greed Index: 51, neutral; previous reading 50

【Stocks】
- U.S. stocks: S&P 500 −0.52%, Nasdaq −0.21%, 「Dow −1.23%」; Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +0.44%; VIX 19.45. The previous day's defensive-stock winners gave back gains: consumer staples XLP −1.9%, Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola each −2.8%, American Express −3.7%, financials XLF −1.3%
- AI stocks saw a modest recovery: AMD +1.7%, TSMC +1.5%, Micron +2.5%; Nvidia −0.6%, Meta −1.0%, CoreWeave −2.5%—the recovery was uneven. Energy XLE +2.6%
- Crypto-related stocks: MSTR +0.1%, COIN −2.7%, IBIT −0.2%
- Asian stocks: 「MiniMax +16.7%」climbed back above its HK$165 IPO price; Zhipu +8.3%, Hang Seng +0.69%; KOSPI +0.30%, ending its losing streak, with SK Hynix +4.4%; Nikkei −0.34%; 「CSI 300 +1.71%」, at one point down 1.9% intraday, but closed back above the -20% line
- European stocks: Euro Stoxx 50 −0.31%, DAX −0.75%

【U.S. Treasuries and macro】
- U.S. Treasuries (Treasury Department figures, versus October 22): 2-year 4.69%, 「10-year 5.00%」, 30-year 5.33%; all up 4 bp, recovering a small portion of the 17 bp drop the previous day
- Kalshi odds of an October rate hike: 9%, up from 6% the previous day; gold futures 4,010 (−1.2%), down for a second straight day; Dollar Index 101.75; oil futures are in a contract-roll period, so only levels are shown: Brent 111.7, WTI 103.4

【Altcoins】
- Among 59 USDT pairs with over $5 million in trading volume: median −1.79%, 11 up and 48 down; the early-hours plunge erased the modest rebound during the day
- 「$ETH 2,388」−0.1%, SOL −0.8%, XRP −1.1%, BNB +1.1%, DOGE −0.2%, HYPE −0.4%, ZEC −3.0%, NEAR −4.0%, STRK −7.0%
- Top gainers: AVA +19.5%, PEPE +3.9%, BCH +2.7%; top losers: BMT −14.0%, PHA −12.9%, GTC −12.2%, WLD −11.6%. The cause could not be verified, so no attribution is made

【Key takeaways】BTC liquidity tends to be thin on weekends. It has closed below the range floor for two straight days, with 79,732 as the next level below; open interest fell by about 4,700 coins over two days as leverage was flushed out. For A-shares, watch whether the CSI 300 can hold 3,958 over the next 20 trading days. U.S. stocks have rotated between defensives and AI for two days, but have yet to establish a clear direction.

The “national team” steps in to prop up the market—but can it hold up A-shares? A look at what followed seven past bailouts

On October 23, the CSI 300 staged a sharp V-shaped reversal, rallying 3.7% from its intraday low to the close! The nine broad-based ETFs commonly used by the “national team” traded a combined total of around 84 billion yuan that day.

Here’s how the CSI 300 performed after seven publicly reported market-support interventions:
- 5 trading days later: all 7 were up
- 20 trading days later: 5 were up and 2 were down; the declines followed September 2008 and July 2015
- Fell more than 20% after the intervention: 2 times—again, 2008 and 2015
- One year later: 6 of the 7 were higher; the exception was 2015 (−17.9%)

When support held: February 2020 during the pandemic, February 2024, and April 2025—all were sell-offs triggered by external shocks.
When it didn’t: 2008 and 2015—both involved the unwinding of bubbles or leverage.

What about this time? The CSI 300 has fallen for 10 consecutive weeks. The hardest-hit area has been the AI computing-power supply chain: the ChiNext and STAR 50 indexes are both down 41%, while the Shanghai Composite is down only 13.8%. This looks more like a theme-driven bubble unwinding than a one-off panic sell-off.

【What to watch next】The October 23 intraday low of 3,958 is a key level: a break below it within 20 trading days would look more like 2008 or 2015; holding above it would look more like 2018 or 2023.

The sample includes only 7 cases, so it can suggest a direction, not a probability. Do you think the bailout can hold up the market this time?

$BTC

$MINIMAX up 16.7% in one day! It fell below its IPO price just yesterday, then bounced back today. What happened?

- Closed at HK$187.6. On October 22, it closed at HK$160.7, falling below its HK$165 IPO price for the first time.
- Two pieces of good news came together: the launch of the open-source M3.1 Flash model, with 428 billion total parameters; and a report from “Yuyuantantian” that it and DeepSeek had completed pre-export registration. Concerns about a “Chinese AI ban” were temporarily put aside.
- A sharp V-shaped rebound in mainland China stocks in the afternoon: the CSI 300 was down as much as 1.9% intraday, but closed up 1.7%. The nine broad-market ETFs commonly used by state-backed funds saw combined turnover of about 84 billion yuan that day. Hong Kong-listed AI application stocks rallied along with them.
- Don’t forget: it closed at 1,238 on March 18. Even after this huge daily gain, it’s still 85% below its peak.

A 17% gain in one day is real. So is the fact that it’s still 85% below its peak. Would you dare chase this rebound?

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: down 6.7% in one day, crashing into the 200-day moving average 😵
200-day moving average: Haven’t seen you in 16 months—the last time was June 3, 2025. You dipped below me intraday, but by the close I’d lifted you back to within 0.5% 🫡
$BTC : Don’t look at me. Our correlation was 0.70 over the last 20 trading days, but just 0.26 over 120 trading days. Lately, when you fall, I fall too 🥲

BTC can only catch its breath if this line holds. Do you think it will?

U.S. stock market Fear & Greed Index: 19.8, Extreme Fear 😱
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 50, Neutral 😐

CNN: U.S. stocks have fallen back into Extreme Fear again— for the second time this month 📢
China A-shares: More than 4,800 stocks are down, fewer than 500 are up, and the CSI 300 has entered a bear market. The Fear & Greed Index? What’s that? We don’t have one! Count them yourself 🥲
U.S. stocks: Nasdaq −2.6%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index −6.7%. I’m freaking out this much—BTC, how are you still so calm?
$BTC : I’m down 3.2% too. I’m just… used to it 🤷
Crypto crowd: What’s there to be afraid of?! A dip is a chance to buy! Let’s go! 🚀
Crypto veteran: You said that last time too. I bought in at 87,000 😭

United States: 440,000 new millionaires last year—1,200 a day—bringing the total to 23.63 million. That’s one in every 11 adults 😎
Mainland China: 14,000 new millionaires last year, bringing the total to 5.3 million (just one for every 200-plus adults). The number grew by only 0.3% in a year 🥲

And that was before A-shares entered a bear market. The CSI 300 is down 20% from its June peak, and the ChiNext Index is down 41%…

How many do you think will be left when we count again at the end of this year? 😂

$BTC

There are 23.63 million millionaires in the U.S.—that’s 1 in every 11 adults 😎
There are only about 970,000 addresses worldwide holding a full 1 $BTC 🥲

At $80,000 each, it’s way cheaper than becoming a millionaire, yet the number of addresses that have gotten in is less than 4% of the number of millionaires!!!

Have you gotten in? Somehow, I feel like you’re bound to sooner or later, since you’re reading this post 🤔

Patients get good news, shareholders get a massive red candle!!!

Moderna (Moderna, ticker symbol $MRNA ): Phase 3 cancer vaccine trial succeeds, risk of recurrence or death down 42%—why are you selling? 😭
Shareholders: I bought at 30 bucks at the start of the year, and yesterday it hit 245. Why wouldn’t I sell?

Down 17.6% at the close on October 22, wiping out $24 billion in a single day.

The day everyone knows the good news is the day to get out. Moderna put on a textbook “sell the news” performance yesterday!!! Did you learn your lesson? 😏

$BTC

Market roundup for Oct. 22: AI stocks crater after Meta earnings; Philadelphia Semiconductor Index −6.7%; CSI 300 enters bear market; U.S. Treasury yields plunge 17 bp in a day, breaking below 5%; BTC gets no safe-haven bid, closes at 81,416, back below the bottom of its range

【Markets】
- 「$BTC 81,416」−3.18%, high of 84,377 (the 09:00 Beijing-time hour), low of 80,940 (the 00:00 hour on the 23rd); close was 1,147 below the range floor of 82,563. BTC closed below it for the 9th day this month; next level to watch is 79,732
- Price action: Stepped lower steadily from 09:00 Beijing time, broke below 82,000 between 16:00 and 17:00, hit the day’s low at 00:00 on the 23rd, then moved sideways between 81,200 and 81,500
- Liquidations for the day: $177 million in longs / $17.5 million in shorts; BTC longs $47.6 million / shorts $2.4 million. The two largest waves came at 09:00 Beijing time ($25.5 million in longs) and 00:00 on the 23rd ($42 million in longs)
- Perpetual open interest: 95,912 BTC, down 2,090 in a day, indicating deleveraging; funding rates were basically zero across all three periods, with no panic payments from longs
- Fear & Greed Index: 50, neutral, down 18 from 68 the previous day

【Equities】
- U.S. stocks: S&P 500 −1.21%, Nasdaq −2.60%, Dow +0.02%; 「Philadelphia Semiconductor Index −6.72%」; VIX 19.03 (+14%). Meta −7.0% after earnings; AMD −8.1%, Micron −6.3%, Nvidia −4.4%, CoreWeave −10.1%; MSTR −5.0%, COIN −4.5%, IBIT −3.7%
- Money moved into defensives: consumer staples XLP +3.3%, utilities XLU +2.1%, healthcare +1.3%. Apple rose 1.2% to a new year-to-date high, helping the Dow close flat
- Asian stocks: 「KOSPI −3.52%」 closed at a record low; Samsung −4.0%, SK Hynix −5.5%; Nikkei −2.65%, Taiwan stocks −1.81%, Hang Seng −3.03%, Shanghai Composite −1.48%; 「CSI 300 −1.84%」 is 20.2% below its June 22 high, entering a bear market on a closing basis
- European stocks: EURO STOXX 50 −1.94%, DAX −1.07%

【U.S. Treasuries and macro】
- U.S. Treasuries (Treasury data, versus Oct. 21): 2-year 4.65% (−16 bp), 「10-year 4.96% (−17 bp)」, the largest one-day drop since August 2024, breaking below 5%; 30-year 5.29% (−13 bp)
- Kalshi odds of a rate hike in October: 6%, down from 12% the previous day
- Gold futures 4,038 (−2.7%), silver −4.9%; metals did not rally as safe havens. Dollar Index 101.57 (−0.2%); oil is in a rollover period, so only the levels are shown: Brent 113.1, WTI 99.3

【Altcoins】
- Among 64 USDT pairs with over $5 million in trading volume: median −5.35%, 6 gainers and 58 losers, with 35 down more than 5%
- 「$ETH 2,389」−3.4%, SOL −3.1%, XRP −4.1%, BNB −2.0%, DOGE −3.9%, HYPE −4.0%, LINK −4.3%, NEAR −7.2%, ENA −7.2%, QNT −8.6%
- 「ZEC −7.3%」 closed at 1,219, falling back below 1,300
- Top gainers: GTC +21.8%, BMT +19.4%; top losers: ALT −36.9%, 「IOST −25.5%」 gave back the previous day’s surge, BEB −13.5%. The cause could not be verified, so no attribution is made

【What to watch】Can BTC close back above 82,563 within a day or two? If not, watch 79,732. Open interest has already fallen by about 2,100 BTC, as leverage is being flushed out. Treasury yields are falling, but BTC is moving with the Nasdaq and is still being traded as a risk asset. The KOSPI and memory stocks are still leading the declines, while Korean stocks and memory-stock perpetuals on Binance are among the hardest hit