若兮-Aurora

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$BTC $ETH $SOL #Market correction in crypto

As early as October 19, Ruo Xi mentioned in an analysis of the subsequent long-term cycle that the bearish trend was obvious. This week, it has been a continuous downward trend from the 1110 level. In three days, the price of Bitcoin has declined by 10,000 points, accurately predicting a drop near 98780. The market has indeed followed expectations and declined to 98800. The script provided half a month ago has come to fruition! $BTC $ETH $SOL #加密市场回调

Is the market now taking one thing for granted: that U.S. employment has collapsed and a recession is coming?

But I think we should hold off on telling such a pessimistic story.

Yesterday’s data was actually quite interesting: initial jobless claims came in at just 189,000, a very low level. Labor productivity grew 3.6% in the third quarter, while unit labor costs actually fell 0.7%.

What does that tell us? U.S. businesses are still operating normally, productivity is improving, and labor costs aren’t getting worse. At least for now, the data doesn’t show signs of a broad-based collapse in the labor market.

That’s why tonight’s nonfarm payrolls report is so important.

If tonight’s data also shows no clear weakening, the market may have to change its script. Until now, everyone has been trading on recession fears. Now they may start worrying again that the economy is too strong, inflation won’t come down, and Fed rate cuts won’t come so easily.

Pay attention—this shift in expectations matters!

An economy avoiding recession doesn’t necessarily mean stocks and crypto will rise. The more resilient the economy is, the harder it may be for interest-rate pressures to ease, which could keep high-valuation tech stocks under pressure.

On the other hand, if the market has already priced in recession risks too fully, sentiment could recover quickly if the data turns out not to be as bad as expected.

So tonight, don’t just focus on whether the payrolls report is good or bad. Pay more attention to how the market interprets it.

Will this further confirm a soft landing, or is it just a temporary reprieve before the market starts pricing in interest-rate pressures again?

Tonight’s report may be more important than many people think.$BTC $ETH $NVDAB
#非农今晚揭晓，美股能否绝地反击？ #币安将恢复更多资产提现

11.6 BTC Morning Outlook
Last night's drop probably kept quite a few people awake again. BTC saw heavy selling at elevated levels, falling more than 5.4% in 24 hours. The short-term bullish structure has already broken down, so don't rush to buy the dip. First, see how the market recovers.

This decline was mainly fueled by macroeconomic news. The Democrats won the midterm elections, and the market has begun to worry that AI regulations may tighten, particularly around restrictions on the expansion of the AI industry and data center construction. If growth expectations for the AI sector are affected, U.S. tech stocks will naturally come under pressure, and risk sentiment will spread further into the crypto market.

The market is now trading not only on immediate negative news, but also on concerns about future policy. The policies haven't actually been implemented yet, but investors have already started adjusting their positions in anticipation.

Looking at the charts, the 4-hour price has fallen below the 5- and 10-period moving averages, and the Bollinger Bands are opening downward. On the 1-hour chart, price is currently just moving sideways at low levels as it attempts to recover; there is still no clear sign of a reversal.

Today's plan is clear: look for shorting opportunities on a rebound, and don't rush to buy the dip.

Keep a close eye on the 77500–78000 zone. This is a short-term resistance area for a rebound. If price rebounds into this zone but fails to hold, consider opening short positions. First watch 75200 below; if that level breaks, the next target is 74500.

$BTC #币安将恢复更多资产提现

U.S. stocks plunged last night: the S&P 500 fell 4.4%, the Nasdaq dropped 5.5%, and the Dow sank nearly 1,800 points, its worst single-day performance since April 2025.

AI chip stocks led the losses, with Nvidia tumbling more than 9%. The Nasdaq entered a technical correction.

With the election behind us, markets began pricing in expectations of tighter AI regulation.
BTC fell from $81,000 to $76,000, giving back all of the previous night's gains. Its movement was similar to the Nasdaq's.

BTC and ETH are both moving sideways in a narrow range on the hourly charts. Put simply, neither the bulls nor the bears have made their move yet, and there’s no clear winner for now.

BTC is currently seesawing around 80300, while ETH is consolidating near 2425. Although prices haven’t made a clear move higher, the indicators show that the MACD has formed a golden cross near the zero line, and the red bars are still growing, suggesting that short-term bullish momentum hasn’t completely faded. However, the KDJ is already in overbought territory and starting to show signs of converging. The RSI has moved back above 50, but it’s not strong yet.

I’m still leaning toward a rebound in the near term, but the key is not to chase the price at this level. The better opportunity is to wait for a pullback to support before entering.

For BTC, watch 79500—79000. If it pulls back and holds steady, consider going long. The initial target is 81000, followed by 82000.
For ETH, watch 2400—2380. If it holds this zone, targets are 2500 and 2580.

The biggest risk right now is that as soon as the market moves, everyone can’t help chasing in again. Remember, opportunities are out there—the key is not to buy away your potential profit. If a pullback offers an opportunity, take it; if not, wait patiently. Don’t turn yourself into exit liquidity just to get on board.
#币安将恢复更多资产提现 $BTC
$ETH

Last night, gold held firmly at the 4033 support level, perfectly fulfilling the bullish outlook I shared. The market continued to gain momentum in early trading today, surging directly to around 4140.

But I want to emphasize one thing here: the faster the market rises, the greater the risk of a short-term pullback. The broader bullish trend is clear for everyone to see. The real challenge is not chasing the rally, but finding a safe entry point.

On the 4-hour chart, this rally has broken through several key resistance levels in succession: 4050, 4078, and 4086. Short-term bulls have full control of the market's momentum. The 4-hour MACD has crossed above the zero line, and the red bars continue to expand, showing solid medium-term bullish momentum. There are no signs of the trend weakening.

After surging to touch the 4-hour 200-period moving average, the price came under pressure and pulled back. Gold is now significantly above its short-term moving averages, while the RSI is approaching overbought territory. Although the trend is strong, chasing the rally at these levels offers very poor risk-reward, and a technical pullback to correct the move could happen at any time.

If the price remains under pressure in the 4133–4140 range and a weaker reversal signal appears on a shorter timeframe, you could take a small position to capture a short-term corrective pullback. If the price falls back to the key 4086 support level and shows signs of stabilizing, look for an opportunity to enter a long position. #美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？ $XAU #xau

When many people saw the Republicans lose both chambers, their first reaction was: “It’s over. The crypto bill is dead, and regulation is about to tighten again.”

But I actually think the opposite may be true.

Let’s not forget that politics is about interests. Just because one party takes office doesn’t mean it has to oppose the other.

The Republicans courted the crypto world before to win votes and industry support. Now that the Democrats have taken both chambers, don’t they also want to win these people over?

Over the next two years, the Democrats will have every incentive to rebuild ties with the crypto industry. Even if that means revising the bill and negotiating again, it doesn’t mean they want to shut down the entire industry.

Think about it: if the Democrats can use a regulatory framework to win over crypto companies, capital, and younger voters, will the Republicans really be willing to give up this market so easily in the election two years from now?

So I think what’s really worth watching next isn’t which party won both chambers, but what changes this industry will see as the two parties begin competing for influence in the crypto world.

When an industry goes from being ignored to becoming a source of votes that both parties want to win over, that’s often when its political value truly begins to show.

Don’t focus only on the immediate bad news. Sometimes opportunity is hiding precisely where most people haven’t yet thought to look.

#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？ #美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？ $BTC

The Fed hasn't yet sent any new policy signals, but the election results have already pushed gold straight past the $4,000 mark.

Spot gold rebounded strongly this afternoon, gaining nearly 2.5% on the day and climbing above $4,020. The short-selling strategy from this morning also exited with only a small loss. Silver made an even stronger move, with New York silver futures surging more than 3%.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell to around 101.2, hitting a four-week low.
#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？ #xau

The market quickly played out as expected in the morning's higher-level outlook. Bitcoin also gained 1,500 points, with Ethereum moving in sync. The daytime session is still trading sideways for now; it briefly touched around 756 and quickly rebounded. You can sell high and buy low within the range. $BTC

11.4 Gold Morning Outlook
Gold prices first pulled back to around 3919 during the morning session, then surged rapidly and are currently around 3950. ADP employment data is due to be released tonight. Those already in a position, remember to set your protective stops.

Looking at the chart, the daily Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and gold prices remain under pressure below the middle band. RSI across timeframes remains below the 50 level, so the broader trend is still bearish. The indicators have only rebounded slightly from low levels, and the decline has slowed. This is a technical recovery after being oversold, not a reversal. The strategy for the daytime session remains to look for opportunities to sell at higher levels.

Trading plan:
Sell in the 3975–3985 range, with targets at 3900–3870. Set the stop-loss at 4000.

Market conditions can change rapidly. This is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

11.4 Ruoxi’s Bitcoin and Ethereum outlook

The market was pretty frustrating to watch last night. The 78,000 level felt like a hurdle that bulls just couldn’t clear, despite repeated attempts. They tried three times in total, but each time the price reached around 77,800, selling pressure pushed it back down. It briefly managed to break above 78,000, but couldn’t hold for more than a few minutes before quickly falling back to 76,800.

The 4-hour chart shows a clear pattern of lower rebound highs, suggesting a gradual weakening. There’s a good chance price will test the 76,200 support next. If that level gives way, there’ll be more room to fall.

The trading plan is straightforward: use rebounds as opportunities to short, and don’t chase longs blindly.
Bitcoin: Short on a rebound to 77,500–78,000; first target 76,000, then 75,000 if support breaks.
Ethereum: Short on a rebound to around 2,300; first target 2,210, then 2,100 if support breaks.
#币安每小时充值量已超过提现量 $BTC

I already reminded everyone at noon that you could go long. The market has unfolded just as Ruoxi predicted: Bitcoin has climbed steadily from around 763 and is now near the target, with about 1,500 points of upside. Ethereum has moved in tandem. $BTC $ETH

Everything in the world, like gold, is refined through trials. The short-entry idea for gold around 3930 shared at noon gave those who followed 20 points of room. #xau

11.3 Ruoxi’s BTC and ETH Outlook

After BTC’s sharp drop, it has entered a consolidation phase. Weekly candles have closed lower for several consecutive weeks, with price retreating from 87,000 and now chopping back and forth in the 76,000–78,000 range.

79,600 is the key dividing line between bulls and bears. Until price can reclaim this level, downside risk remains. The key support below is 75,000. A decisive break below it could open up more downside, with 73,000 and below in view.

My personal take, for reference only

BTC: Consider going long around 75,800–76,300, targeting 77,500–78,000
ETH: Consider going long around 2,230–2,250, targeting 2,310–2,330

#币安将恢复更多资产提现 $BTC $ETH

Gold opened slightly higher today, testing a rebound, but signs of bullish fatigue have already appeared on the 1-hour chart.

The price came under pressure after rising and pulled back to 3944, with clear selling pressure overhead. The 1-hour MACD remains in a golden cross, but momentum continues to fade. The price is rising while the indicators fail to follow, suggesting weakening short-term buying pressure. It is not a good time to chase the rally.

Note: Fading volume does not mean a sharp drop is imminent; it simply indicates a weak rebound.
Gold has rebounded nearly $90 from 3870, but has yet to hold above 3975. The broader downtrend remains intact.

Key intraday trading range

First, watch support at 3930–3925. A break below 3925 would invalidate the short-term rebound structure, opening the way toward 3900 and 3880. $XAU

Could the U.S. midterm elections bring a political shake-up? The outcome Trump least wants to see is drawing closer

On November 3, the U.S. midterm elections kick off.
This time, voters aren’t choosing a president. The battle is for control of Congress: all 435 seats in the House and 35 seats in the Senate. The outcome will directly determine whether Trump can get his policies through over the next two years.

The latest polls point to a somewhat surprising shift:
A Reuters poll puts Democrats at 46% and Republicans at 38%, an 8-point lead. Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 32%, near its lowest level.
YouGov’s model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning the House, while Nate Silver’s model puts their chances of taking the Senate at 80%.
Even in key swing states that previously leaned Republican, polls now show Democrats pulling ahead.

But polls aren’t the same as the final vote. Turnout and a handful of swing states will determine the real winner.

Two outcomes, two very different market scenarios

Scenario 1: Democrats win both chambers of Congress

• Trump’s signature tax-cut and spending policies would face much greater resistance

• Budget negotiations and the debt ceiling could become a drawn-out battle—the kind of uncertainty Wall Street worries about most

• The crypto industry would face stricter congressional oversight, and related bills would likely be put on hold

Scenario 2: Republicans hold on to Congress
Expectations for fiscal expansion would heat up again, and markets would reprice the risk of rising Treasury yields.

Let’s talk about BTC

Don’t assume that “if one party wins, BTC is guaranteed to surge or plunge.”
In the short term, election news will only amplify market volatility—it’s mostly sentiment-driven trading. What really determines BTC’s overall direction is still market liquidity, ETF flows, and spot buying pressure.

Rather than fixating on who wins, I’m more interested in what happens when the result becomes official: will the market sell off once the good news is priced in, or will we see an unexpected move in the opposite direction?

What do you think—can Trump hold on to Congress, or will Democrats make a comeback? $BTC

Bitcoin Multi-Timeframe Market Analysis

I. 【Weekly Timeframe | Long-Term Outlook】

The market has pulled back from its recent high, with a significant overall retracement. The weekly chart has now closed lower for four consecutive weeks.

After a prolonged and deep decline, we won't aggressively chase shorts this week. Overall, the market is more likely to see a technical rebound or move sideways as it consolidates.

Key long-term buying zone: 69000—73000
This is a strong support zone near the bottom. If the price reaches this level, it would be an excellent opportunity to build a long-term position.

II. 【Daily Timeframe | Medium-Term Outlook】

The double-top target at 77500 that we've been tracking for the past month has been fully reached ✅

• Daily bullish OB zone: 74800—77100
Long positions have been successfully established at lower levels. We'll patiently hold and wait for a rebound and recovery.

• Daily bearish resistance OB zone: 80300—82000
If the market rebounds into this higher zone, it will be a key area to watch for resistance and look for opportunities to short at high levels.

III. 【4-Hour Timeframe | Short-Term Outlook】

The daily support zone has held effectively. The current price is 78100. Key short-term resistance to watch: 79500. Whether price breaks through will determine the strength and continuation of the short-term rebound.$BTC

Gold fell sharply last Friday. It weakened gradually during the Asian and European sessions, then accelerated lower in the US session, declining steadily throughout the day and closing with a large bearish daily candle.

On the 2-hour chart, gold has broken below the 3975 support level. The MA20 is near 3966, and the moving averages remain in a standard bearish alignment.

The MACD lines continue to move lower below the zero line, while the bearish momentum bars keep expanding. Downward pressure remains strong for now.

Today, the initial outlook is for the downward momentum to continue. The key is to watch for shorting opportunities during the European and US sessions.
Resistance is at 3930 and 3950. If prices rebound to either level, consider scaling into short positions. A decisive break below 3870 would put 3850 and 3800 in focus.

Gold has just broken below its previous low, and bearish sentiment is strong. There are no signs of a bottom for now, so don’t rush to buy the dip. This is market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. #xau