渔夫_执棋者

Watch the market quietly and seize the opportunity early. Govern the market with strategy, and seek profit with stability. Welcome everyone to join the chat room to learn—chat room ID: y66888

Brothers, I’m back again. This round of positioning is for a long-term short. All three below apply:

Short the current price at the head position, add at 82,000, and place shorts above 83,000.

Targets: watch for 76,000 to break, then look further down to 72,000.

For Ethereum: look at 2200.

For BNB: 600$BNB $BTC

Successfully doubled within a week, and the pace was also well managed$$BTC

Bad news piling up, the big dip can’t fall—are we seeing the bottom or just grinding it out? #比特币突破77000美元

Right now, a bunch of negative factors are weighing on BTC: the Federal Reserve has completed its rate hikes, the dot plot signals further hikes within the year, and the overall tone of the speech was hawkish—so the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are rising in tandem. Progress on regulatory bills is being blocked, ETF flows have continued to drain, and even institutions have shown signs of selling coins.

In the past, with so much negative news stacking up, even if there wasn’t a major crash, the price would likely head straight toward the 70,000s. But this time, the market only probed down to the low of around 75,000, and soon after, fresh funds stepped in to buy the dip and pull it back.

This suggests that there is strong buy support around 75,000. Also, the drop from 82,000 to 75,000—nearly a 9% correction—has already priced in a portion of the bad news in advance. Still, don’t mistake this for a full-fledged bull market returning.

What matters in trading isn’t how bad the news is, but how the price reacts after the news lands. If bad news can’t push the market lower, it indicates that bearish power is temporarily exhausted. Conversely, if the market rises on bad news but can’t keep climbing, that also means bulls don’t have enough conviction.

As things stand, the big coin’s situation looks like this: there’s buy support underneath, but there’s no incremental capital chasing prices higher above.

In the short term, if it holds the 75.0–76.0k range, there’s a chance for consolidation and recovery, potentially putting it back on track to challenge 80.0–82.0k. Only if it puts in volume and holds above 82.0k can we say the bad news has been largely digested. A break above 84.0–85.0k is what would earn the discussion of a true trend reversal.

If 75.0k breaks, the first support to watch is around 72.4k. Holding that level would still look like consolidation and shakeout. If it effectively breaks down, then this “stubbornness” is merely a delay in selling pressure—watch out for 69.6k next.

Quick summary: if it holds above 82k, the bad news is basically out of the way. If it breaks below 72.4k, the decline will only arrive late, not fail to come. During the consolidation phase in between, either stay on the sidelines and wait for direction to become clear, or if you trade, only play short-term swings—and set take-profit and stop-loss strictly.

Do you remember before the Federal Reserve meeting on the 14th even began, I had already anticipated the market move in advance. On Tuesday, it was likely to trade in a range and drift downward to probe around 4300, then on Wednesday to rebound and test 4400.

The actual price action was broadly in line with my forecast. The low even dropped straight to 4253, going further down than the 4300 I expected. After that, the rebound kicked off as planned, and the high reached 4381. That left only 19 points to the 4400 target—just a little short of being completely on target.

You can see that around the time the news was released, market volatility was significant. Although the levels weren’t off by even a bit, the overall sequence of “first down, then up” played out. However, past forecasts don’t guarantee future moves—the market can change at any time. Trading must always include solid risk control; you can’t rely on prediction alone.

You may want to watch the resistance around 4380–4400. You could consider scaling in short positions within this range. $XAU

Yesterday’s big pancake saw a rebound and moved upward. After touching the 77149 level, it lost steam and simply turned back downward. After the spike, it didn’t keep breaking higher; afterward, the market fell into a period of consolidation. Price mostly stayed and churned around the 76k–77k area.

Long and short sides have been tugging at each other fiercely here. Pushing up lacked strength, and selling down also failed to break through decisively, so for the short term it has been repeatedly oscillating within this range.

At present, this is the consolidation phase after the high was rejected. Whether it can regain strength depends on whether it can re-establish itself above the overhead resistance. As long as the big pancake can hold the 762 level, it should still move up to touch the 785 area. Then you can consider setting up a short position at that point. Same for Ethereum, too. $BTC

As long as it holds above 76200 and continues upward, it’s just a matter of time. Next, we’ll look at the resistance at the 773 level. ​​​

Last night, the Federal Reserve directly raised rates by 25 basis points. Affected by this news, the BTC/“big coin” price action kept tugging back and forth—constantly driving up and down with sharp wick movements as both long and short sides fought fiercely, with particularly large volatility.

Overall, the larger trend is still bearish. That earlier push to the high around 79,570 has already failed to keep going, and resistance is very clear.

This rally is only a rebound after a big selloff—an oversold bounce to recoup losses. It does not mean the market has fully turned bullish.

Don’t assume that once the drop is over, a big rally will immediately begin. Right now, it’s just choppy consolidation and repair in a low range.

The rebound is only short-term correction, and the bulls have not truly gained control. For the trend to decisively reverse, price must break upward through the key resistance level. Until that happens, you still shouldn’t blindly look for longs.

For selling, you can short within the 77,300–77,800 range, with targets down toward 75000#美联储加息是否已成定局 #美联储会议 $BTC

As you can see from the chart, when the Fed decision was approved in the early hours, it directly triggered a sell-off. Gold price quickly plunged to the 4235 low point, then a short-term oversold rebound followed. Now it is trading around 4306, consolidating.

This Fed meeting was overall hawkish. After the rate hike was confirmed, the market showed panic selling, pushing prices to new lows. Then a large number of short sellers took profit and exited, leading to a wave of corrective rebound. This is a pullback after a big drop, and we cannot yet conclude that a strong reversal is underway.

Resistance levels: the first resistance is 4338–4360; the strong resistance is 4400. Only if price holds above 4400 will the short-side setup be broken.

Support levels: short-term support is 4270, and the key low is 4235. Once 4235 is broken again, the downward trend will likely continue.

Today is most likely to see range-bound consolidation and recovery. If the rebound cannot push through the 4360 resistance, it may face renewed pressure and retest the lower levels;

Only if price holds above 4360 will the bulls gain further momentum to test the 4400 mark.
$XAU

Currently, the Federal Reserve’s remarks are hawkish; if it becomes more dovish later, gold will see a rebound.

It’s flashy and lively, but it’s not as thrilling as the neighbor’s golden one.

Back when this post was published, there were still a lot of people who doubted it. So what about now?

Those who used to doubt it probably came along too by now.

Raise your hand—let me see how many people caught up, and how many watched all the way through with full attention.

Tonight, the Fed interest rate decision is on the stage—it's also the moment when another storm of market action is about to hit. As early as the 14th, I mentioned that the gold price would consolidate and trend downward toward the 4300 area, and the current market trend is basically in line with my forecast.

Now we just need to wait for the Fed’s decision to land later this evening, to verify whether the earlier call is correct—specifically, whether we’ll see a rebound after the decision that pushes toward 4400. If things do unfold as expected, and after the decision the gold price launches an upside advance toward 4400, then the current price level would be an opportunity to scale in on long positions. $XAU

After the big biscuit experienced more than half a month of box-range oscillation, yesterday it chose to break downwards. The price fell directly below the 76,000 level, dipping as low as 74,900. Then it quickly recovered part of the losses, and is currently back around 75,800.

The possibility of a false breakdown this time cannot be ignored. Pay special attention to 76,200 as the key watershed level.

Going forward, if the price can regain and hold above 76,200, you can then follow through by setting up long positions, looking toward the 78,500 target area. After the rebound reaches the 78,500 target, you can switch and enter short positions again. At that time, it’s also possible to coordinate to <t-2/>$BTC

A few days ago, after the gold price surged to a peak of 4434, it immediately met resistance. The bulls couldn’t hold up the selling pressure, and the price kept falling. Along the way, there was a rebound that pushed prices higher, but it failed to break through the previous all-time high at 4434. It was only a brief pullback during the downward move—after the rebound, it continued to drop.

On the 14th, it hit the low at 4253. In the short term, there was a small rebound, but now it’s hovering around 4297, moving back and forth. Overall, the market’s swing highs keep getting lower, which indicates a weak consolidation pattern, with the bears holding the advantage.

For overhead resistance, focus mainly on 4360 and 4434. If it can’t break above them, the downtrend structure won’t change. On the downside, watch the low at 4253—if that level breaks, the price will likely probe further lower; if it holds, the market will maintain a range-bound consolidation. #黄金 $XAU

The big rally surged as scheduled, smoothly reaching the 79.5k target level given yesterday. After touching this resistance level, the upside momentum weakened, and it quickly reversed to start a pullback.

As you can see, selling pressure at this spot is relatively heavy. The bulls were unable to continue breaking higher, and a large number of profitable positions got taken off the table, driving the price downward. The previously identified pressure level played out effectively—the market rhythm and our outlook are basically aligned.

Brothers who shorted around 79.5k can continue to hold. For those who didn’t get in, you can wait for a rebound to the 78.5k–79k range, then look to short again.

There are currently many yellow croakers, but the nephew is only at 15 points; target 4360$XAU

Yesterday’s market movement was basically in line with what we predicted, and the plan was executed perfectly. After gold rebounded and pushed up to the 4434 level, it couldn’t move higher and directly dropped, giving us more than 100 points of downside room.

From the chart, today’s gold still primarily follows the approach of rebounding to sell. Wait for the price to rebound into the 4370–4380 range, then you can set up short positions. The downside target is around 4300.
#黄金 $XAU

The current market is at a critical divide where long and short positions are in a key standoff. It’s also Friday, so the market is easily set to see a turning point and a major shift. Many people are watching from the sidelines, hoping the chart will directly trigger a sharp selloff.

On Friday, funds are generally cautious. Plus, there are many unknown risks over the weekend, so the market is prone to violent swings—rising and falling sharply. Tonight, the CPI inflation data will also be released, and its impact on BTC should not be underestimated. It will directly disrupt expectations for Fed policy, which can easily drive the coin price into large back-and-forth oscillations.

Don’t make a subjective assumption that the market will definitely fall. Before the data is released, everything is still subject to change. There’s also the risk of a gap-open at the start of the weekend—at this time, avoid going all-in to gamble on a direction.

If BTC bounces back to the 78,300–78,800 area, go short from there. Hold with the goal of continuing to hold if 76,000 breaks through.