People Power Party Seeks Sept. 21 Talks With Five Major Exchanges on Further Crypto Tax Delay
South Korea’s ruling People Power Party is seeking talks with the country’s five largest virtual-asset exchanges on possible changes to the system and a further delay to crypto taxation, which is set to take effect in January next year. The party is discussing with the industry a plan to hold a seminar on crypto taxation at 2 p.m. on Sept. 21, Dailyan reported on Sept. 8. Floor Leader Jung Jeom-sik, Policy Committee Chair Lim I-ja and secretaries of relevant standing committees are among those whose attendance is being coordinated, along with the heads of the five major won-market exchanges — Dunamu, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit and Streami — and officials from the Digital Asset eXchange Alliance, or DAXA. The schedule and attendees have not been finalized. Under the current Income Tax Act, a 20% tax will be imposed from January 2027 on annual income from the transfer or lending of virtual assets that exceeds the basic deduction of 2.5 million won. The effective tax rate, including local income tax, is 22%. Crypto taxation was originally due to begin in 2022, but the start date was postponed three times — to 2023, 2025 and 2027 — because of the need to build tax infrastructure and strengthen investor-protection rules. People Power Party lawmakers have also introduced bills to abolish the tax or delay it further. Rep. Song Eon-seok in March proposed an amendment to the Income Tax Act that would remove provisions taxing income from transfers and lending of virtual assets. Rep. Jung Sung-kook proposed delaying implementation by three years to 2030, while Rep. Kim Sang-hoon proposed a two-year delay to 2029. The party also held a meeting in March with the heads of the five won-market exchanges and DAXA officials to discuss ways to improve the crypto taxation system. The government and the Democratic Party, however, have maintained that taxation should begin next year under current law.
Bitcoin Volatility Near Historic Lows, With Long-Term Holder Supply a Key Factor
Bitcoin volatility has fallen to historically low levels, with supply held by long-term holders emerging as a key factor behind the recent calm. Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Sept. 8 that Bitcoin volatility is currently at historically low levels. The firm said elevated long-term holder supply is having a major influence in explaining the subdued volatility. Glassnode's analysis found that long-term holder, or LTH, supply showed the closest relationship with changes in Bitcoin's realized volatility, with explanatory power of about 19%. Illiquid supply followed at about 12%. By contrast, market capitalization accounted for only about 3%. The ratio of futures open interest, or OI, to market capitalization and spot trading volume also had less influence on volatility than long-term holder supply, according to the firm.
Japan Finance Minister Says in Close Contact With U.S. on FX; Yen Strengthens to 153 Against Dollar
Japan said it will remain in close contact with the U.S. Treasury over the yen’s recent strength and work to ensure orderly moves in the foreign-exchange market. Bloomberg reported on September 8 that Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told a news conference that Tokyo’s position had not changed at all since the joint U.S.-Japan market intervention, citing comments made at an August 3 press conference in Japan and a Washington statement by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. She added that Japan will continue close communication with the U.S. Treasury and seek to ensure orderly movements in the foreign-exchange market. The yen has strengthened rapidly as expectations grow for another interest-rate increase by the Bank of Japan. In Tokyo foreign-exchange trading on the morning of September 8, the dollar traded at about 153.58 yen. That marked a sharp rise in the Japanese currency from around 160 yen a dollar just a week earlier. More recently, the yen has continued to strengthen past the 155-per-dollar level even without additional market intervention by authorities. Economic data released that day also reinforced expectations for a BOJ rate hike. Japan’s second-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised up to an annualized 1.4%, while wage growth in July reached its highest level in about 30 years. About a month earlier, Japan injected 15.4 trillion yen, or about $101 billion, into the foreign-exchange market to support the yen. The U.S. also joined the effort at the time for the first time in 28 years. Even after the intervention, the dollar-yen rate stayed near 160 for a time, but the yen’s rally has accelerated this month as bearish bets against the currency were rapidly unwound.
U.S. Spot Bitcoin, Ether ETFs Draw $1.1 Billion in Weekly Inflows, With Nearly 80% Concentrated i...
U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds drew a combined $1.1 billion in net inflows last week, with nearly 80% of the total concentrated in a single day. CoinMarketCap data released on Sept. 8 showed spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $968.9 million from Aug. 31 to Sept. 4, while spot Ether ETFs took in $130.3 million. Combined net inflows for the two assets totaled $1.1 billion, down 32.8% from the previous week. On Sept. 3 alone, the funds attracted $863.2 million, accounting for 78.5% of the week's total net inflows. That marked the largest combined daily net inflow for spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs since Jan. 14. The flow of funds was heavily skewed toward Bitcoin. Weekly net inflows into spot Ether ETFs plunged 82.3% from the previous week, and Ether's share of total ETF inflows fell to 11.9% from 45.0%. Prices rose even as ETF inflows slowed. Based on CoinMarketCap opening prices, Bitcoin gained 2.77% during the period and Ether climbed 2.60%. Both assets had declined in the prior week. Leverage in the Bitcoin derivatives market showed only limited expansion. In the week through Sept. 6, Bitcoin open interest fell 0.6% to $53.15 billion, while the funding rate slipped to 0.50 basis point from 0.54 basis point. By contrast, buying demand in the spot market improved. Over the three trading days through Sept. 4, net taker flow totaled $294 million, indicating a buying bias. That compared with the previous week, when buying and selling pressure was nearly balanced, suggesting spot demand strengthened.
U.S., Japan and Europe Face Rate-Hike Risks as Middle East Tensions Flash Volatility Warning for ...
Global financial markets could see volatility rise sharply through year-end as the risk of additional rate hikes in major economies combines with fiscal strains and higher oil prices driven by the war in the Middle East. Bloomberg reported on September 7 that U.S. investors were returning from the Labor Day holiday as bond and currency markets prepared for a string of monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. Market volatility remained unusually subdued last month despite reports of government intervention to defend the yen and stabilize U.S. Treasury yields. That backdrop could shift from September as major policy events crowd the calendar. The ECB is expected to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its next policy meeting. The Fed is scheduled to announce its rate decision on September 16, with a BOJ meeting to follow. Markets are also weighing the possibility that the BOJ could raise rates by 25 basis points this month because of inflation risks. If the Fed delivers a relatively dovish signal, yen strength could accelerate and the unwind of yen carry trades could gather pace. The market is estimated to still hold about $103 billion in bets on yen weakness. Fiscal problems in major economies are also adding to bond-market jitters. In the U.K., rising gilt yields and high inflation are rapidly eroding the government's fiscal room. France is also under pressure, with a budget deficit above 5% of gross domestic product and political uncertainty weighing on sentiment. In the U.S., national debt has reached $40 trillion, and uncertainty over fiscal policy could widen ahead of the November midterm elections. Large-scale corporate fundraising is also poised to weigh on bond markets. In the U.S., borrowing for artificial intelligence infrastructure investment has surged, and September issuance of investment-grade corporate bonds is forecast at about $215 billion. Some Wall Street estimates put the total as high as $250 billion. If corporate bond issuance rises alongside Treasury supply, competition for market liquidity could intensify. Geopolitical risks remain another variable. Brent crude has climbed close to $100 a barrel as tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensify, fueling concern that global inflation could reaccelerate. Tariff friction between the U.S. and Canada, along with renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, could further increase volatility across stocks, bonds and currencies. Carol Lye, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, said volatility across asset markets could rise and risk assets could weaken if an oil shock coincides with Fed and BOJ tightening, political uncertainty and AI-related credit concerns.
Yen Surges to 153 Per Dollar, Highest in Six Months, as Hedge Funds Unwind Shorts
BOJ Rate-Hike Cycle Gains Momentum Yen Could Strengthen Further if Middle East Tensions Ease The yen surged into the 153-per-dollar range, reaching its strongest level in about six months, as expectations grew that U.S. and Japanese monetary authorities could take concrete steps, including joint intervention, to curb yen weakness. Prospects for faster Bank of Japan rate hikes also supported the currency. The yen's advance is gathering momentum as not only hedge funds but also medium- to long-term investors unwind short-yen positions. In Tokyo foreign-exchange trading on Sept. 8, the yen at one point strengthened into the 153-per-dollar range. That marked its strongest level since mid-February, about six months ago. The dollar had traded in the 155.50-yen range at 5 p.m. the previous day, but continued yen buying pushed it through 154 and then into 153. The yen also broke through 155 per dollar, a psychological threshold it had failed to surpass even during yen-buying intervention by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan in late April through May and again in July. In the market, some see the move as more than short-term speculators covering positions, signaling a broader turn in the underlying trend of selling the yen. A Mitsubishi UFJ official said momentum is shifting, with not only hedge funds but also investors with a medium- to long-term horizon unwinding positions that involved selling the yen and buying the dollar. BOJ Rate-Hike Bets Gather Pace The yen's strength is being driven in part by expectations for policy changes by U.S. and Japanese monetary authorities. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently reiterated his strong support for Japan taking firm market and financial policy measures to address what he described as the yen's sharp undervaluation. Markets are increasingly alert to the possibility that the two countries could take specific action, including joint foreign-exchange intervention, to correct yen weakness. Expectations for additional BOJ rate hikes are also supporting yen buying. Markets have almost fully priced in a 0.25 percentage-point increase at the central bank's monetary policy meeting on Sept. 17-18. Views are also spreading that the BOJ could continue raising rates roughly once every three months, or that the terminal policy rate could end up higher than previously expected. Expectations that tensions in the Middle East will ease also weighed on the dollar. Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Sept. 7 that talks with Oman over a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz were in their final stage and that an agreement could be reached within days. That has reduced demand for the dollar as a haven during the Middle East crisis. With short-yen positions already heavily built up, traders see policy expectations and easing Middle East tensions combining to accelerate the currency's rise. Still, the next move in the exchange rate will depend on the actual pace of BOJ rate hikes, the response from U.S. and Japanese authorities, and changes in the Middle East situation. Choi Man-su, Tokyo correspondent, Korea Economic Daily bebop@hankyung.com
Bitcoin Hovers Below $80,000 Ahead of US Inflation Data as Fed Rate-Hike Fears Build
Bitcoin was trading below $80,000 as investors turned cautious ahead of key US inflation readings and weighed the possibility of another Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. The Block reported on September 7 that Bitcoin changed hands at about $79,500. The cryptocurrency briefly rose above $82,000 last week, but lost momentum after stronger-than-expected US labor data. US nonfarm payrolls for August increased by 162,000, far exceeding the market forecast of 55,000, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. The solid jobs report also raised the odds of further Fed tightening. According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed will raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its September 16 meeting climbed to about 60%. Rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar then added pressure to rate-sensitive assets, including Bitcoin. Institutional money has continued to flow in, however. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net inflows of $987 million last week, marking a third straight week of inflows. On-chain data also strengthened. The 30-day rate of change in Bitcoin's realized market capitalization turned positive on August 24 and rose to 0.88% by September 6. Over the same period, realized market capitalization increased by $9.36 billion to $1.068 trillion. QCP Capital said recent swings in daily ETF flows appeared to reflect position adjustments ahead of major economic releases rather than clear directional bets. It set near-term resistance at $80,000 to $82,000 and support at $77,000 to $78,000. Markets are now watching US producer price index and consumer price index data due this week. Higher-than-expected inflation could again bolster the case for another rate increase and add further downside pressure on Bitcoin.
Hunter Biden to Launch ‘LAPTOP’ Memecoin in Apparent Swipe at Trump
Hunter Biden, the son of former President Joe Biden, is preparing to launch a memecoin called LAPTOP based on his "laptop scandal." The move appears aimed at President Donald Trump as Trump and his family expand their digital-asset business. The Wall Street Journal reported on September 7 that Hunter Biden plans to launch LAPTOP on September 9. The token will be issued on Coinbase’s Base blockchain, with a total supply of 1 billion. The token’s name comes from the so-called Hunter Biden laptop episode that emerged ahead of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Material from a laptop used by Hunter Biden, including messages related to overseas business dealings and personal files, sparked major controversy in U.S. politics at the time. Founders, including Hunter Biden, will receive 30% of the total supply. Those tokens cannot be sold for six months after launch and will be distributed in installments over two years. The Wall Street Journal said the structure of the token suggests an effort to target Trump. That is because 20% of LAPTOP’s total supply will be distributed in part to investors in Trump’s official memecoin, Official Trump (TRUMP). Separately, Hunter Biden has recently voiced support for digital assets. In a recent post on X, he described decentralized digital assets as an "inevitable future."
Ethereum Plans Simpler Gas Payments, Opening Door to Fees Without ETH
Ethereum is moving to make transaction-fee, or gas-fee, payments far more convenient. In the future, users may be able to pay gas fees with stablecoins and other digital assets without holding Ether directly. CoinDesk reported on September 7 that Ethereum core developers decided on August 27 to include Frame Transactions, or EIP-8141, in the Hegotá upgrade scheduled for 2027. At present, all transaction fees on Ethereum must be paid in Ether. As a result, users cannot transfer stablecoins or other digital assets from a wallet if it does not also hold ETH. If Frame Transactions is introduced, the account approving a transaction can be separated from the account paying the fee. That would allow a payments application to pay gas fees in Ether on a user's behalf, or receive stablecoins from the user and settle the fee with that amount. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin wrote that important progress on Frame-related work has been taking place quietly over the past few months.
Strategy Raises $20.9 Billion Through Share Sales This Year, Fourth-Most Among U.S. Companies
Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has raised $20.9 billion through new share issuance in U.S. capital markets this year, ranking fourth among U.S. companies, according to Bitcoin.com and other outlets on Sept. 7. The company has raised a total of $20.9 billion this year through offerings of common and preferred stock. That ranks behind only SpaceX at $86.3 billion, Alphabet at $25.7 billion and Intel at $23 billion. Strategy has used a large share of the proceeds from those stock sales to buy Bitcoin. From Aug. 24 to Aug. 30, it sold 4,531,421 common shares and generated net proceeds of $602.8 million. Of that amount, $369.7 million was used to purchase Bitcoin. The company bought an additional 4,603 Bitcoin during that period at an average price of $80,318. As of Aug. 30, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings had risen to 845,050. Its cumulative purchase cost stood at about $63.73 billion, with an average acquisition price of $75,412.
Analysis: Rising US Treasury Yields Weigh on Bitcoin, but Could Strengthen Its Long-Term Case
A sharp rise in long-term government bond yields in the U.S. and other major economies is putting short-term downward pressure on Bitcoin, but it could also enhance the long-term appeal of scarce assets such as the cryptocurrency, according to an analysis. BLOFIN Research said in a recent report on September 7 that higher Treasury yields are a short-term negative for Bitcoin, but over time they reinforce the investment thesis around currency debasement. The report added that liquidity will ultimately be the key factor determining Bitcoin's direction. Long-term government bond yields in the U.S., Japan and Europe have recently climbed to their highest levels in years or even decades, with the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries at one point topping 5.3%. Over the same period, Bitcoin fell to the $77,000 level, while risk assets including U.S. stocks and technology shares also weakened. BLOFIN Research said high bond yields are eroding the appeal of risk assets. With investors able to earn about 5% on long-term U.S. Treasuries, the incentive to take additional risk declines. As a result, some liquidity could flow out of volatile assets such as Bitcoin and tech stocks. The report added that rising yields increase funding costs while lowering the present value of future returns. Even if Bitcoin is viewed as a monetary asset over the long term, it still behaves like a risk asset in the short run and remains sensitive to liquidity and funding costs. Still, BLOFIN Research said rising bond yields could ultimately strengthen Bitcoin's investment case. The firm said the U.S. Treasury has already expanded long-term bond buybacks, though not to a degree comparable with quantitative easing. Even so, if Treasury yields continue to rise, the likelihood of stronger measures could increase, including larger buybacks, changes to the maturity structure of Treasury issuance, and potentially monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. BLOFIN Research said Bitcoin's direction will depend in particular on whether confidence in government debt weakens and whether policy intervention expands. The report said Bitcoin is currently caught between two forces: attractive risk-free yields offered by elevated bond rates and expanding fiscal burdens. Its short-term direction can shift quickly, and the next major move will ultimately depend on where liquidity goes.
Bitcoin Stalls at $83,000 Sell Wall as Investors Turn Net Sellers
Bitcoin has been unable to clear a heavy sell wall at $83,000, while all investor cohorts, including whales, have shifted to net selling, according to an analysis. CoinDesk reported on September 7, citing Glassnode's "Accumulation Trend Score by Wallet Size" data, that the broader Bitcoin market has entered a selling phase for the first time since early June. The Accumulation Trend Score measures buying activity by investor group based on wallet size and the amount of Bitcoin purchased over the past 15 days. A reading closer to 1 signals stronger accumulation, while a figure closer to 0 indicates stronger selling. The aggregate score across all investor groups currently stands at 0.37. In particular, whale investors holding more than 1,000 BTC are leading the selling, CoinDesk reported. That contrasts with the past three months, when nearly every investor cohort showed strong accumulation. CoinDesk also said signals pointing to a possible advance are emerging. Bitcoin's 50-day moving average could cross above its 200-day moving average as early as September 8, forming a so-called golden cross. If that occurs, expectations may build that Bitcoin can break through its current resistance zone.
Analysis: Memecoins' Share of Altcoin Market Falls to Record Low
Investor interest in memecoins has cooled sharply, driving their share of the broader altcoin market down to the lowest level on record, according to an analysis. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost wrote on Sept. 7 that memecoins' share of total altcoin market capitalization had hit an all-time low. Digital-asset investors have never turned away from memecoins to this extent, he added. CryptoQuant data show memecoin dominance surged to about 11% at the end of 2024 before entering a prolonged decline. It has recently fallen to around 3%, dropping below its previous low. Darkfost said the extreme drop in interest could also open the door to a new "memecoin season." He pointed to a case in late 2025, when memecoin dominance fell to what was then a record low of about 3.2% before Dogecoin, Shiba Inu and Bonk rebounded in unison in early 2026. Some memecoins are beginning to move again, but the trend has not yet spread across the broader market, Darkfost wrote. Whether the current extreme lack of interest will trigger a new memecoin season remains to be seen.
Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000 as US-Iran Conflict Lifts Oil, Clouds Fed Outlook
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 as rising oil prices and uncertainty over US interest rates weighed on sentiment amid an escalating military clash between the US and Iran. As of 2 p.m. in South Korea on Sept. 7, Bitcoin was trading at $79,714.99 on Binance's USDT market, down 0.2% from a day earlier. It hovered around the $80,000 level over the weekend, but weakened as tensions in the Middle East flared again. US Central Command said on Sept. 5 that it attacked three Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, Jask and the Gulf of Oman. Admiral Brad Cooper said the strikes were intended to impose greater economic costs if Iran attacked two US vessels. Since resuming its maritime blockade operation on July 14, the US military has rerouted 92 commercial ships, disabled three vessels and boarded two. International oil prices rose on concern that supply disruptions in the Middle East could tighten the market. West Texas Intermediate crude rose about 1% to $92.72 a barrel, extending its gain this month to more than 6%. Higher oil prices could add to inflation pressures and limit the Federal Reserve's room to ease monetary policy, adding pressure to crypto markets. Stronger-than-expected US employment data for August also hurt investor sentiment by raising the likelihood of another Fed rate increase. At the same time, President Donald Trump repeatedly called on the Fed to cut rates after the jobs report, deepening uncertainty over the policy outlook. A security incident involving about $320 million on Bitcoin sidechain Liquid Network also added to market caution. CoinDesk said uncertainty over the Fed's policy path, rather than a rate increase itself, could curb risk appetite across markets including Bitcoin.
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Post Third Straight Week of Net Inflows, Add $986.9 Million
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net inflows for a third straight week, signaling a recovery in institutional demand for cryptocurrency exposure. The Block reported on Sept. 7, citing SoSoValue data, that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted total net inflows of $986.9 million last week, up from $924.5 million a week earlier. BlackRock’s IBIT led the inflows, drawing $691.5 million during the week. Trading activity, however, declined. Total trading volume for spot Bitcoin ETFs fell to $14.5 billion last week from about $19 billion the previous week. Spot Ether ETFs also extended their net inflow streak to three weeks. They recorded $218.4 million of net inflows last week. Trading volume over the same period fell to $4.1 billion from $6.3 billion a week earlier. Monthly data also highlighted the strength of ETF inflows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $3.52 billion in net inflows in August, marking the largest monthly inflow since September last year. Spot Ether ETFs also recorded their biggest monthly inflow since August last year, with $1.85 billion of net inflows last month. Dominic John, an analyst at Zeus Research, said steady inflows into ETFs show institutional money is expanding Bitcoin exposure again. The demand is being driven by actual spot buying rather than speculative positioning built on leverage, he said. Bitcoin rose to about $81,700 on Sept. 3 and is now trading around $80,000. If it holds the $80,000 level, the market structure remains positive, John said. He added that Bitcoin could gradually climb toward $82,000 to $85,000, though its next move is likely to depend heavily on macroeconomic variables such as U.S. inflation data.
Lummis Says Next Real Chance to Pass CLARITY Act Is 2030 if Congress Misses This Session
Calls are mounting for swift passage of the CLARITY Act, a US market-structure bill for digital assets. On September 6, US Senator Cynthia Lummis wrote on X that if the CLARITY Act does not pass in the current Congress, the next meaningful opportunity to advance a market-structure bill will not come until 2030. Lummis said a delay in passing the bill could cause the US to miss economic opportunities from the digital-asset industry. Completing the legislation now would help avoid wasting years of opportunity in jobs, investment and tax revenue, she added. The CLARITY Act is intended to clarify regulatory jurisdiction and market structure for digital assets in the US. Lummis's remarks appeared aimed at pressing for quick action, arguing that failure to complete the legislation during this congressional session could delay the broader framework for years.
Did Japan Sell US Treasuries to Defend the Yen? Foreign Securities Holdings Plunge $87.8 Billion
Japan may have sold part of its foreign securities holdings, including US Treasuries, to finance the largest foreign-exchange intervention on record aimed at defending the yen. Bloomberg reported on September 6 that data released the same day by Japan’s Ministry of Finance showed foreign securities holdings fell by $87.8 billion at the end of August from a month earlier. The decline was roughly in line with the amount Japanese authorities recently spent to buy yen. The ministry had previously said it poured $96.4 billion into the foreign-exchange market in the month through August 26 to boost the yen, the largest monthly intervention on record. Part of the intervention was conducted jointly with the US. The ministry’s data did not disclose the types of foreign securities sold or provide details by maturity. Still, market estimates suggest about 70% of Japan’s foreign-exchange reserves are invested in US Treasuries, fueling speculation that Tokyo sold some of those holdings to raise funds for the intervention. Valuation losses are not seen as a major factor behind the drop. The price of the 10-year US Treasury at the end of August was only slightly lower than at the end of July, suggesting market moves accounted for only a limited portion of the $87.8 billion decline in foreign securities holdings.
[Today’s Top Economic and Crypto Events] Euro Area Second-Quarter GDP, US Labor Day Market Closure
<Today’s Top Economic Calendar> ▶︎ Sept. 7 (Monday): △ U.S. financial markets closed for Labor Day △ Euro area second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) at 6 p.m. <Today’s Top Crypto Calendar> ▶︎ Sept. 7 (Monday): △ Canopy (CNPY) trading support on Binance Alpha and an airdrop △ RWA Inc. to launch the “RWA Chain”
Bitcoin Nears $80,000 as US August CPI Set to Decide Whether Crypto Rebound Holds
Aug. 11 August CPI Due at 8 p.m. Forecast to Rise 0.4% From a Month Earlier Focus on Core Inflation and Rate-Hike Risk With Bitcoin nearing the $80,000 mark, the US consumer price index for August is emerging as a key test of whether the rebound in digital assets can continue. A softer inflation reading could ease concerns about further rate hikes and lift investor sentiment. A hotter-than-expected number, however, may prompt the market to surrender some of its recent gains. The report is also due ahead of the Sept. 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting and stands to influence views on monetary policy. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August CPI at 9:30 p.m. Korea time on Sept. 11. Data compiled by Investing.com on Sept. 5 show the market expects headline CPI to rise 3.4% from a year earlier and 0.4% from a month earlier. The annual pace would match July, while the monthly increase would accelerate from 0.1%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.2% from a month earlier, unchanged from July. The key question is whether higher energy prices spread into other goods and services. Even if headline CPI posts a larger increase, stable core inflation would support the view that underlying price pressures remain limited. Still, some see upside risk to the data. Continuum Economics forecasts August headline CPI and core CPI to rise 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, from the prior month, citing higher energy and lodging costs. Its core CPI estimate is 0.1 percentage point above the market consensus. Within the Federal Reserve, officials are also treating the inflation report as a key variable in the rate decision. Governor Christopher Waller said in a Sept. 3 speech that he would support holding rates steady if progress on inflation continues. He added that he would consider a rate increase if inflation comes in high. For the crypto market, the immediate question is less about hopes for rate cuts than whether additional tightening can be avoided. Digital-asset prices have already risen sharply from early last month. On Binance's Tether market as of 5:50 p.m., Bitcoin traded at $79,762 and Ether at $2,492.35. Solana stood at $105.14, while XRP changed hands at $1.4147. Compared with last month, the four tokens were up 24.0%, 30.9%, 44.6% and 36.7%, respectively. All four also advanced over the past 24 hours, though Bitcoin rose just 0.18% and remained below $80,000. If CPI comes in below expectations and core inflation stays stable, conditions could become more supportive for digital assets. Lower odds of a rate increase would likely push down US Treasury yields and the dollar, reducing the burden of holding risk assets. That would support a scenario in which Bitcoin secures a foothold above $80,000 and Ether and Solana extend their gains. Even so, prices have already climbed sharply, making it difficult to conclude that a strong rally would resume on an in-line result alone. If core CPI also exceeds forecasts, by contrast, concerns about additional tightening could intensify and trigger profit-taking. Price swings may widen further if leveraged long positions are liquidated at the same time. Beyond the CPI reading itself, the market is watching how Treasury yields, the dollar and interest-rate futures move immediately after the release. More than the level of inflation alone, the gap versus expectations and the outlook for the Fed are likely to determine crypto's short-term direction.