Pai

Bought for a whole year, and then brought it back

Paul Tudor Jones disclosed that he bought back over the weekend
UBS’s BTC call options—added by 24x

The price is stuck around 63K, unmoving for a week
Money underneath is quietly shifting

I’m betting this range will eventually break upward

The more this market drops, the more people go long.

The long/short ratio has jumped to 2.2.
Out of ten accounts, seven are betting on a rebound.

BTC is stuck at 62.7K and can’t get back up.

A slow blade has ground for six days.
It hasn’t collapsed—there’s just no strength left to rise.
No one is cutting losses; the floating supply hasn’t been cleaned up yet.

I won’t catch this knife.
I’ll wait for these 70% of longs to finally let go first.

Paul Tudor Jones sold a BTC ETF for a year and now has bought it back

UBS increased its long options position by 24 times
This week, the ETF also saw two consecutive outflows

Small money is running, big money is picking up

Positions don’t lie; sentiment will

Long-Short Ratio 2.05: When it comes to big pie, they can't break into new highs
67% bet on the rise—price has been grinding at 63K for six weeks
This week’s range is under $3,000; it’s the narrowest in six weeks

ETH is stuck at 1882; no altcoin dares to move
An altcoin nobody is touching is liquidity that nobody is taking

Next week, two numbers
65391 = this week’s high
62535 = this week’s low
Break which one, and it’ll move in that direction

I’m leaning lower
Friday said that pile of longs was fuel
Now that fuel is even thicker

AI faith has slimmed down this week
AVGO down 8%, NVDA almost unchanged
Money only willing to stay with the big boss

When AVGO fell this round, I pored over it for a long time
No earnings report, no scandal
Just being slowly sold through

A drop without reason is scarier than one with a reason
With a reason: bad news is already priced in
Without a reason: someone ran first
The basket of AI has narrowed to just one remaining star—NVIDIA

The market calls this “safe.” I call it “fragile.”
I won’t add to my position with this kind of move
NVIDIA sneezes, and the whole sector catches a cold too

AI’s money is starting to be picky

On Friday, AVGO was smashed 6%. VMware has a vulnerability; BofA also pointed out $370 billion in AI debt

AMD jumped 6.5% the same day; Baird raised its target to 1250

The semiconductor index didn’t move

That broad rally is over—going forward, it’s going to be about single order trades for winners

I’m not taking it—this kind of negative news like AVGO’s hasn’t been fully digested yet

SEC this week canceled Reg Crypto
Turning around, Trump's World Liberty has obtained a banking license

Paper regulation keeps getting delayed
Licenses are still being issued

This week BTC moved from 64902 down to 63021 and didn’t drop 3%
Three weekly candles: the highs keep getting lower, the lows keep getting higher, and the range keeps tightening the closer the close
For the first time this month, the ETF saw net outflows for two consecutive days

Every time it gets delayed, the market doesn’t even splash
Good news or bad news can’t move it, and volatility is almost gone
Pushed to this level, the next big K-line isn’t far off
I’m not betting on it going up—first I’ll see where it drops

The index hits a new high—someone slashed AVGO by one knife

SPY is only 0.1% away from its 52-week high; no one’s panicking
Broadcom dropped 4% today, directly smashing it down to 400
In the same hour, SOXX is still green

The sector overall didn’t move—only that one got hammered down
This AI chip trade is splitting; days of blindly buying the whole basket are over. Now you have to pick names

On Friday, if you’re holding a single stock like AVGO, I’ll cut half first
Keep cash over the weekend and reassess on Monday

The index hits a new high—someone slashed AVGO by one knife

SPY is only 0.1% away from its 52-week high; no one’s panicking
Broadcom dropped 4% today, directly smashing it down to 400
In the same hour, SOXX is still green

The sector overall didn’t move—only that one got hammered down
This AI chip trade is splitting; days of blindly buying the whole basket are over. Now you have to pick names

On Friday, if you’re holding a single stock like AVGO, I’ll cut half first
Keep cash over the weekend and reassess on Monday

The more it drops, the more people buy the dip
This week, BTC ground down from 65K to 62.8K
Yet the long/short ratio climbed from 1.16 to 1.87
65% of the accounts are catching a falling knife
Today it broke all the 63K supports—new low 62,700
These long orders are the fuel for the weekend
Liquidity is thin—no one’s catching it on the way up, and all the way down are stop-loss orders
I won’t catch it; let this 65% experience it themselves

Reg Crypto, after waiting for so long, said they’re canceling—just like that
SEC’s first crypto rule, and now we have to wait again
No new date even provided
The market has been hoping for compliant rollout, so institutions can move in
But when it comes to compliance, it’s always just one step short
63K is stuck there—no one dares to make the first move

Gold being sold—money all rushing into tech
VIX has dipped back to 14—no one wants to hedge
NVDA is once again topping 226—only ten percent away from a new 52-week high
This AI rally isn’t over yet; it catches its breath in the middle, then keeps climbing
The hardest part is being in cash—watching it rise every day, too afraid to chase
I’ll keep holding—no messing around

Long positions start queuing to exit today

Long-to-short ratio drops from 1.85 to 1.68
BTC is down 0.5%—it hasn’t moved above the 63K area

Sell orders from surrendered positions can’t smash the price; who is taking them is the key

At this level, I won’t short

Everything is down except chips

SOXX is up three points
SPY is basically unchanged since it hasn’t even opened
And consumer is still stuck green for no reason

No need to guess the Wednesday money flow
It’s all going into semiconductors

The only question is
How long can a single-engine aircraft keep flying?

Monday hit 63.2K, Tuesday keeps falling
Today bounced back to 64K

It’s been three days—something is becoming increasingly clear
The sell orders are exhausting

The bearish candle on Monday had the heaviest volume
Tuesday had less volume by a notch
Today’s is even lighter
If it really breaks down, it wouldn’t move like this

I didn’t sell
This week should be able to return to 65K

Watching 64K slowly seep down

BTC three days and three bearish candles, moving from 64,900 to 63,700
The long/short ratio is still stuck at 1.8
Gold hits a new high at 4,431; haven flows are running. Crypto is still waiting for a V-reversal

But this time is different
The 64K level broke too quietly. Last time it was this quiet—then the next move down is 10%

I'm staying in cash and waiting
Not entering

Semiconductors are rising themselves
SOXX +1.78%
NVDA is only up by less than 1%
The broader market is unmoved

In the past, when semiconductors moved, NVDA led the way
Today, the leader isn’t moving
The sector is rotating internally

If NVDA can’t keep up, it isn’t a real uptrend

SEC is pushing for Reg Crypto
The digital asset compliance framework must be put into practice

BTC dropped $1,500 yesterday to $63,800
Today the 64K level hasn't continued falling
$63,800 was tested twice

Yesterday I said bearish, today it's the other way around
ETH 1880—regulatory support is being treated as nothing by the market

Good news isn't believed by anyone; at this level I won't follow the crowd and smash it
I won't go short

Stared at it all night and still didn’t bounce up

Fear 29, but 62% are still going long
Yesterday it was dumped from 65,400 down to 63,800
These long positions haven’t moved a bit

Afraid but unwilling to cut
More dangerous than simple panic

This move isn’t done falling yet

Monday open: SPY is down 3 points breaking to a new high; NVDA is down 1%

Over the past two years, whenever SPY has been rising, it’s been led by NVDA. Today isn’t the case.

Semiconductors are falling behind. SMH is down from 670 to 580; SOXX is even worse.
The AI story is still there—money has moved out.

This week, SPY will most likely set a new high. Will NVDA keep up? I’m betting it won’t.