心如大魔王
32 Posts
心如大魔王
“BTC周期观察员” “熊市猎人”
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The Bollinger Bands have narrowed down into a single line
Over the past three days, the price has been moving sideways within the range of 63,100 to 64,000. Volatility has been shrinking, while trading volume keeps getting lower. In one hour, the difference between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands is only 700 points, and in four hours it’s just 1,250 points.
This degree of band contraction is the most typical signal before a breakout. When the price is compressed to the limit, it must choose a direction.
If it moves upward: it must first hold above 63,650 (the 4-hour middle band), and then push toward 64,000 (the daily middle band). Only if 64,000 is reclaimed will the damage from the bearish candle on 8/11 be considered repaired. Otherwise, any rebound is just false.
If it moves downward: a drop below 62,800 (the daily lower band) is the confirmation signal. If that level breaks, the next area is 60,600 (the 3-day lower band), followed by the 57,000–58,000 zone. There isn’t much in the way of meaningful support in between.
After the price was smashed down from 64,500 on the night of 8/11, it has been hovering here for three days. This kind of consolidation won’t last too long. A direction should emerge within the next 24 to 48 hours.
In terms of trading, it’s far more reliable to wait for the direction to become clear before deciding, rather than guessing right now. If it breaks upward, wait for a confirmed hold above 64,000. If it breaks down, then if 62,800 can’t be defended, it means the trend will continue.
#比特币走势分析 $BTC
Over the past three days, the price has been moving sideways within the range of 63,100 to 64,000. Volatility has been shrinking, while trading volume keeps getting lower. In one hour, the difference between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands is only 700 points, and in four hours it’s just 1,250 points.
This degree of band contraction is the most typical signal before a breakout. When the price is compressed to the limit, it must choose a direction.
If it moves upward: it must first hold above 63,650 (the 4-hour middle band), and then push toward 64,000 (the daily middle band). Only if 64,000 is reclaimed will the damage from the bearish candle on 8/11 be considered repaired. Otherwise, any rebound is just false.
If it moves downward: a drop below 62,800 (the daily lower band) is the confirmation signal. If that level breaks, the next area is 60,600 (the 3-day lower band), followed by the 57,000–58,000 zone. There isn’t much in the way of meaningful support in between.
After the price was smashed down from 64,500 on the night of 8/11, it has been hovering here for three days. This kind of consolidation won’t last too long. A direction should emerge within the next 24 to 48 hours.
In terms of trading, it’s far more reliable to wait for the direction to become clear before deciding, rather than guessing right now. If it breaks upward, wait for a confirmed hold above 64,000. If it breaks down, then if 62,800 can’t be defended, it means the trend will continue.
#比特币走势分析 $BTC
After three attempts to surge past 65500 all failed, even frantic ETF buying can’t save it
On 8.7 the high was 65400, on 8.9 the high was 65500, on 8.10 the high was 65400—three times, and not a single one broke through.
At the 65500 level, the daily Bollinger upper band and the 4-hour upper band are both converging as resistance, and that pressure has been confirmed three times. Bulls kept touching it for three straight days, only to be hammered back every time. On 8.10, it even came as a single solid bearish candle: opened at 64800, the low was 63800, and it closed at 64000. It directly smashed through the lower band from the 4-hour midline, and it closed hugging the lower band without reclaiming it.
65500 is the ceiling. 64800 has turned into resistance, and 64000 is the final shred of a “shield.”
If 65500 can’t be broken through three times, and 64800 can’t be held, then 64000 is in serious danger. From the rebound on 8.1 at 62200 up to 65500, it bounced about 3300 points—then what? One K-line on 8.10 slammed it back by nearly 1000 points.
In the short term, if 64000 can’t be defended, the target directly looks at 62800. Once 62800 is lost, the entire rebound structure collapses, and the price returns to the downward channel.
$BTC #比特币走势分析
On 8.7 the high was 65400, on 8.9 the high was 65500, on 8.10 the high was 65400—three times, and not a single one broke through.
At the 65500 level, the daily Bollinger upper band and the 4-hour upper band are both converging as resistance, and that pressure has been confirmed three times. Bulls kept touching it for three straight days, only to be hammered back every time. On 8.10, it even came as a single solid bearish candle: opened at 64800, the low was 63800, and it closed at 64000. It directly smashed through the lower band from the 4-hour midline, and it closed hugging the lower band without reclaiming it.
65500 is the ceiling. 64800 has turned into resistance, and 64000 is the final shred of a “shield.”
If 65500 can’t be broken through three times, and 64800 can’t be held, then 64000 is in serious danger. From the rebound on 8.1 at 62200 up to 65500, it bounced about 3300 points—then what? One K-line on 8.10 slammed it back by nearly 1000 points.
In the short term, if 64000 can’t be defended, the target directly looks at 62800. Once 62800 is lost, the entire rebound structure collapses, and the price returns to the downward channel.
$BTC #比特币走势分析
What is the market telling you when a single candlestick pierces the lower band and still doesn’t close?
Just now, this 4-hour candlestick was quite interesting.
It opened at 65100, hovering near the upper Bollinger Band around 65300, and then immediately crashed through the mid-band 64900 and smashed through the lower band 64500, with the low going as far as 64160. It closed at 64200. In one candlestick, the price went straight from above the upper band to below the lower band, and the close didn’t reclaim back.
This isn’t a wick. It’s a real body breaking through.
The statistical implication of the lower Bollinger Band is: the probability of price moving within ±2 standard deviations is about 95%. Breaking below the lower band is already a low-probability event, but opening near the upper band and then crashing through the lower band without reclaiming indicates that in these 4 hours, the bears had absolute domination.
The significance of this candlestick:
First, the short-term bullish structure is broken. The mid-band at 64900 has turned from support into resistance. Even if there’s a rebound, it will likely be capped around the mid-band.
Second, this is not a shakeout. A shakeout means piercing through the lower band and then quickly closing back, leaving a long lower shadow. Today, it closed with a real body below the lower band, showing that selling pressure is continuous. This isn’t a needle—it’s a hammer.
Third, the short-term direction is already clear—downward. The next support is at 63500-63800; below that, it’s around the prior lows.
Recently, many major KOLs have turned collectively bullish: “57,000 is the bottom,” “the bear market is over,” “the early phase of a bull market is here”—they’ve been shouting it loudly.
I don’t believe it.
The five-year cycle and the four-year halving—this pattern has been running for over a decade. It won’t become invalid just because an ETF gets approved. It won’t become invalid just because miners pivot to AI. And it won’t become invalid just because everyone wants it to go up.
In a full bear market, there will always be a final bottom where everyone feels so desperate that they end up silent. When it was 57,000, what did you see? Some people were bottom-fishing, some were calling for a bull return, and some were analyzing ETF inflows recovering.
Near the real major bottom, there’s none of that noise. Only silence, only numbness, only, “I’m never watching the charts again.”
On strategy:
For short-term sell positions, you can hold them, with a stop-loss set above the mid-band at 64900. The first target is 63500-63800.
For long-term bottom-fishing, don’t rush—it's nowhere near time yet. When everyone thinks, “Bitcoin is done for,” I’ll be the first to tell you to enter.
#比特币ETF周净流入8.53亿美元 $BTC
Just now, this 4-hour candlestick was quite interesting.
It opened at 65100, hovering near the upper Bollinger Band around 65300, and then immediately crashed through the mid-band 64900 and smashed through the lower band 64500, with the low going as far as 64160. It closed at 64200. In one candlestick, the price went straight from above the upper band to below the lower band, and the close didn’t reclaim back.
This isn’t a wick. It’s a real body breaking through.
The statistical implication of the lower Bollinger Band is: the probability of price moving within ±2 standard deviations is about 95%. Breaking below the lower band is already a low-probability event, but opening near the upper band and then crashing through the lower band without reclaiming indicates that in these 4 hours, the bears had absolute domination.
The significance of this candlestick:
First, the short-term bullish structure is broken. The mid-band at 64900 has turned from support into resistance. Even if there’s a rebound, it will likely be capped around the mid-band.
Second, this is not a shakeout. A shakeout means piercing through the lower band and then quickly closing back, leaving a long lower shadow. Today, it closed with a real body below the lower band, showing that selling pressure is continuous. This isn’t a needle—it’s a hammer.
Third, the short-term direction is already clear—downward. The next support is at 63500-63800; below that, it’s around the prior lows.
Recently, many major KOLs have turned collectively bullish: “57,000 is the bottom,” “the bear market is over,” “the early phase of a bull market is here”—they’ve been shouting it loudly.
I don’t believe it.
The five-year cycle and the four-year halving—this pattern has been running for over a decade. It won’t become invalid just because an ETF gets approved. It won’t become invalid just because miners pivot to AI. And it won’t become invalid just because everyone wants it to go up.
In a full bear market, there will always be a final bottom where everyone feels so desperate that they end up silent. When it was 57,000, what did you see? Some people were bottom-fishing, some were calling for a bull return, and some were analyzing ETF inflows recovering.
Near the real major bottom, there’s none of that noise. Only silence, only numbness, only, “I’m never watching the charts again.”
On strategy:
For short-term sell positions, you can hold them, with a stop-loss set above the mid-band at 64900. The first target is 63500-63800.
For long-term bottom-fishing, don’t rush—it's nowhere near time yet. When everyone thinks, “Bitcoin is done for,” I’ll be the first to tell you to enter.
#比特币ETF周净流入8.53亿美元 $BTC
$64000, is this the bottom or the end of the rebound?
After topping at $126000, BTC has gone through:
12.6w → 8w
Rebound to 9.8w
Dropped to 6w
Rebound to 8.2w
Dropped again to 5.77w
Now, BTC has rebounded from 5.77w to 6.69w, and then pulled back to around 6.24w.
Many people are starting to say the bull market is back, but I don’t think we can rush to conclusions yet.
Technically:
$6.24w is the short-term lifeline.
If it holds here, BTC still has a chance to challenge again:
6.69w → 6.9w weekly mid-band → 7.2w
If it breaks below 6.24, it would suggest that 6.69 might have been the high of this rebound, and the market may seek out 5.77—or even lower—again.
Right now, the most important thing isn’t guessing the bottom, but whether the market can reclaim key resistance.
In the final stage of a bear market, the biggest opportunities often appear when everyone is hesitating.
#比特币收复6.4万美元关口
After topping at $126000, BTC has gone through:
12.6w → 8w
Rebound to 9.8w
Dropped to 6w
Rebound to 8.2w
Dropped again to 5.77w
Now, BTC has rebounded from 5.77w to 6.69w, and then pulled back to around 6.24w.
Many people are starting to say the bull market is back, but I don’t think we can rush to conclusions yet.
Technically:
$6.24w is the short-term lifeline.
If it holds here, BTC still has a chance to challenge again:
6.69w → 6.9w weekly mid-band → 7.2w
If it breaks below 6.24, it would suggest that 6.69 might have been the high of this rebound, and the market may seek out 5.77—or even lower—again.
Right now, the most important thing isn’t guessing the bottom, but whether the market can reclaim key resistance.
In the final stage of a bear market, the biggest opportunities often appear when everyone is hesitating.
#比特币收复6.4万美元关口
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