B A S H R i

#USRetailSalesMissForecast On February 10, 2026, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail sales for December 2025 were flat (0.0%), significantly missing the consensus forecast of a 0.4% to 0.5% increase. This unexpected stagnation follows a revised 0.6% gain in November and suggests a sharp cooling of consumer spending during the critical holiday period. Key Performance Metrics The report, which was delayed by over a month due to a previous government shutdown, highlighted broad-based weakness across multiple retail categories: Core Retail Sales: Sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services—a key metric for GDP calculation—fell by 0.1% in December, underperforming expectations of a 0.3% rise. Sector Declines: Significant month-over-month drops were seen in furniture and home furnishings (-0.9%), clothing and accessories (-0.7%), and electronics and appliance stores (-0.4%). Year-over-Year Growth: Annual retail sales growth slowed to 2.4% in December, down from a 3.3% pace in November. Factors Contributing to the Miss Economists attribute the "dour" end to the fourth quarter to several mounting pressures on the American consumer: Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Persistent inflation (CPI rose 2.7% in December) and anxiety over new tariffs have weighed on consumer confidence. Labor Market Concerns: A softening labor market and higher unemployment concerns have led to a "flight to value," with shoppers increasingly turning to discounted or private-label goods. Financial Strain: Rising delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans, combined with a falling personal saving rate—down to 3.5% in November—indicate that households may be reaching the limits of their spending capacity. Market Reaction The weaker-than-expected data has reinforced market expectations for the Federal Reserve to potentially resume interest-rate cuts earlier than previously anticipated in 2026. Following the release, the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell to 4.16%, while the U.S. dollar faced downward pressure.