阿根战记

As the previous tweet said, it looks like Bitcoin won’t need to reach the 92k-95k range anymore—get ready for a thousand-point drop!
Bitcoin keeps rubbing against 82,800, this bullish side’s line of defense. If a line that people repeatedly break is still a line of defense, then what is it?

The decline probably won’t happen all at once. 78,000-74,500-69,000 are all potential rebound zones.

From my personal perspective, I hope it can surge to 95,000 once more, so that the subsequent shakeout will be more thorough and the next bull market will be healthier.

Bitcoin is testing $82,800–$83,000 again. If it breaks below this time, the bullish trend won’t look good!

Maybe what was said at the end of last month is really true: this rally is comparable to the 2019 choppy market, rebounding to 70% of the previous high—that is, around $88,000.

But the bullish trend hasn’t broken yet, and there’s still a chance of reaching $95,000. So be patient and wait for tomorrow’s market action to unfold.

On the last day of the National Day holiday, BTC and ETH plunged! But this isn’t a crash—it’s mostly a cascade of leveraged contract liquidations driving prices down.

There’s been no large-scale sell-off in on-chain spot markets; this is purely a shakeout driven by capital flows!

Overall, just as I said on the first day of the holiday, there’s no clear trend during the holiday—just choppy trading.

On the higher-timeframe daily chart, the pullback looks weak, while the lower-timeframe 1H/4H charts are severely oversold.
In short: the big drop is over, and the sharp sell-off has paused. A short-term rebound is underway, but a rebound is not a reversal!

There’s heavy resistance overhead, and any rebound is likely to fade after pushing higher. Overall, the market remains choppy with a bearish bias.

In the short term, you can go long at the current price to trade the rebound. Set take profit around 85,500 for BTC and 2,675 for ETH, and place your stop loss at the new low.

Nonfarm data release: nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000, and the unemployment rate is 4.2%.

Overall, the nonfarm data is purely positive. Although there are recession worries, the data isn’t bad enough—“bad enough” to trigger recession panic.

After the good news impact from what BTC said earlier this morning, it still hasn’t fully reached $88,000—it's only about 1% away.

Overall, the market’s reaction to this data isn’t as big as expected, possibly because nonfarm data is often revised significantly, and the market is gradually losing trust in it.

The key data the market is paying more attention to now is the CPI data to be released on the 14th at 20:30.

At present, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October according to CME has fallen to 17.2%. This isn’t really good news. As mentioned during Wednesday’s livestream: if there’s no rate hike in October, and inflation still hasn’t been brought under control, then Wosh will have to explain after the interest rate decision is released this month—why they didn’t raise rates to curb inflation. After all, Wosh has said the most important task for the Fed right now is to control inflation—so that could turn hawkish.

Then, in the early hours of October 29 at 02:00 Beijing time, when the Fed’s rate decision lands, it could turn what seemed like a positive into a negative.

For now, before the end of the National Day holiday, Bitcoin is likely to continue ranging between 82,500 and 88,000, while ETH continues ranging between 2,630 and 2,810. As was said in Wednesday’s livestream: near resistance, short; near support, go long.

Tonight 8:30 — U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data release
The mainstream expectation is +91K, but the forecast range is very wide: 35K–180K.
So BTC’s trading range could also be very large: the current core range is 82,500–85,600

After the release, it may attempt to test 80,000—if the data is very strong (120K+). If it’s below 60K, it may test 88,000.

Tonight’s volatility may exceed last month’s Fed FOMC meeting. From 8:30–9:00, the swings will be very big—be cautious about catching a falling knife

Tonight’s PCE data is positive, but Bitcoin and ETH prices are still within the ranges mentioned during the afternoon live broadcast!

When the data was released, price moved up and probed to the upper end of the range, but it has since dropped back. The “data landed and spiked up from above” scenario just landed exactly where we said it would!

Right now, the fundamentals are basically Bitcoin’s post-rally consolidation and shakeout. As long as the Non-Farm Payrolls data at 8:30 PM on Friday doesn’t deviate too much from expectations, the consolidation logic remains unchanged: within the range, go long on dips and sell short on highs, and wait until after the National Day holiday ends.

Wishing everyone a Happy National Day! May you double—and then double again N times!

Just wrapped up the livestream:
1. Bitcoin market:
Overall it’s ranging/sideways. In the short term, it’s bearish. $82,500–$85,000 for BTC, and ETH is in the $2,600–$2,750 range. Wait to short at the highs after tonight’s 8:30 PCE and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls data are released;

Before the National Day holiday ends, if Bitcoin breaks to a new high, that would likely be a bull trap—short it directly, because the consolidation hasn’t been sufficient.

From mid to late October there’s a chance to push higher and briefly test around 95,000. Hitting 100,000 is less likely. In early November, Bitcoin could start a second test (second dip), around 60,000–65,000 or 49,000–50,000.

2. What to watch in October:
Oct 2—Non-Farm Payrolls; Oct 14—CPI; Oct 29—Fed interest rate decision; Oct 30—Bank of Japan interest rate decision.

3. October wealth “passwords”:
The Robinhood chain, and the U.S. stocks on-chain push promoted by the SEC—both are long-term wealth “passwords,” so keep a long-term watch on them. Especially the on-chainization of U.S. stocks; it can bring massive incremental capital to the market.
Focus on these 4-layer tokens:
ONDO, LINK, ETH, SOL, AVAX
XLM, HBAR, XDC, POLYX, ZEC
AAVE, UNI
PONS, STONK, HOOD, AI, CRCL

Now you can buy a small position to get on your radar; then buy in batches on the later pullbacks.

Tonight 8:30 PM: US August PCE release!

Mainstream market expectations: headline PCE year-over-year at 3.7% and month-over-month at 0.3%; core PCE year-over-year at 3.3% and month-over-month at 0.3%, unchanged from July.

Bitcoin is likely to continue weak, range-bound trading between $82,500–$85,000, while ETH is hovering in the $2,600–$2,750 range. Along the upper and lower edges of the range, high-sell and low-buy is the way to go!

Open futures contracts in the market have not been significantly reduced yet, and market sentiment is becoming more cautious.

In the short term, price action is likely to be choppy and slightly bearish, but the long-term uptrend for bulls is still intact. There should still be opportunities to test again a bit later in the 92,000–95,000 USD range. But it’s probably about that!

I still expect Bitcoin to have a second dip toward the end of October!

10月比特币10万见 OR 7万见？

In the months of July, August, and September, Bitcoin has already been on a three-month winning streak—so the question is: In October, will BTC keep rising, or will it see another major pullback?

On one hand, BTC itself is bullish!

On the other hand, the broader environment is bearish!

What will the market do in October? Where is the wealth map?

Join us in the livestream today at 4 PM!

Bitcoin is now showing a slightly high-volume downtrend!
If it breaks below 82,800 with increased volume again, then that 80,000 will be broken sooner or later.
After this round of rally, many people are already shouting “100,000.” I said this before too: the more people shout “100,000,” the less likely it is to reach it. The current market is a “monkey market”!

For spot holdings, you should take profit in batches and see where the market goes next—whether it will first blow up the long positions, or whether people are chasing long with leverage.

Now the U.S. dollar index has broken above 100, and Brent crude has been staying above $100. In the bigger picture, macro pressure has a greater impact than BTC’s own fundamentals.

78,000 is the position that must be held no matter what in this rally; otherwise, we’ll see 60,000 first.

Is this a bear market? Or a bull market?

This is a question many people care about, and it’s also a basic premise for fundamental analysis!

Currently, BTC is around $84,000. It’s down about 33% from last October’s high of $126,199, but up 31% from this year’s June low of $57,800.

After a whole round of riding a roller coaster, it’s now paused on the hillside platform, catching its breath—this spot is both scary and exciting.

Looking at the halving cycle: Historically, BTC bottoms often appear 24–28 months after the halving. The 2024 April halving points to October–December 2026. Now, we’re right on the bottom window.

At the same time, using the cycle high in October 2025 as the baseline, and layering on the typical bear market duration of 12–15 months, it also points to Q4 2026.

That means: we still need a second, bottom-forming retest!

As mentioned yesterday: Bitcoin’s own indicators are currently leaning bullish, but the broader environment doesn’t allow it—there’s already over a 70% chance that the Fed will raise rates in October.

Tomorrow, the PCE and the Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday night may cause a short-term turning point. Before that, it should still be the same range-bound movement mentioned earlier.

But overall: Bitcoin most likely has one final drop—
• a benign dip: the $62,000–$65,000 cost-dense zone,
• a vicious dip: $49,000–$50,000!
The timing is from late October to early November.

Bitcoin just started work and came to test $82,800—bulls’ key support level!

From a technical perspective, for the first time in 45 weeks, BTC has regained the 50-week moving average. Historically, this signal often marks the end of a bear market’s low point. The 4-hour timeframe is severely oversold, creating a near-term demand for a rebound.

From market data, since 2020 long-term holders have accumulated over 3 million BTC. In the supply, about 81% has not moved for at least 6 months, and the chip structure is clearly concentrated toward long-term holders.

Exchange reserves have dropped to around 2.7 million coins, close to historical lows. The main pressure is in derivatives—meaning there are quite a few people who are leveraged and chasing longs; without a liquidation/burst, the market can’t be pulled up.

Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $2.4 billion last week, the highest one-week figure in 2026, though it has declined day by day, weakening the momentum of the bulls.

Looking at the broader external environment: the Fed is expected to keep hiking rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has reached the high range of 5.12%–5.18%. Uncertainty from the U.S.–Iran conflict persists. Brent crude broke above $106, and the U.S. dollar index rose from 100.95 to 101.15.

For the short term, you can consider going long:
BTC long from 82,500–83,000, take profit at 85,000, stop loss at 81,500;
ETH long from 2,610–2,630, take profit at 2,700, stop loss at 2,550;

Overall, Bitcoin itself is currently relatively bullish, but the broader external environment is bearish. If the broader conditions continue to deteriorate, Bitcoin will definitely fall too—after all, blooming in winter is basically suicidal!

Bitcoin ultimately stabilized around 82,800. So the current fluctuation is just a shakeout—the main players are still here.

In the future, it’s likely that price will still attempt to break through and test 92,000–95,000, but hitting 100,000 is difficult. Since everyone expects to take profit at 100,000, it likely won’t reach that level.

Overall, the market right now is at the tail end of a monkey market. By late October, at the latest early November, it will continue to drop back. If a crisis breaks out in the traditional financial markets—its probability is very high, over 80%—then Bitcoin will still make new lows. The 58,000 level is very unlikely to be the bottom of this bear market!

If this round of market action is like 2019, then the peak of this uptrend may be 88,000–89,000 US dollars;

In 2019, Bitcoin rose from 3,800 to 14,000, reaching 70% of the level of the bull market top of 20,000 dollars.

For this bull market top of 126,000, 70% is in the range of 88,000–89,000.

Of course, history won’t repeat itself, and blindly clinging to the past often goes off course too!

The previous tweet said that the current market situation is: not a bull market! It’s more like the “monkey market” of 2019!

In the future, it will most likely keep falling back to grind the base, shake out the market.

In 2019, after Bitcoin kept rising for 3 months, it then fell back to the bottom and traded in a range again. It didn’t rise again until around the 2020 halving. (See the chart below.)

But some friends also say: why isn’t it more like the end of 2022—after a pump, it goes into consolidation, but doesn’t drop, and then keeps pumping?

Both of these time points’ price action can be used as reference for comparison with the current situation.

But I lean more toward 2019 because:

1. This time, the bottom hasn’t been range-bound. It fell to the low of 58,000 in July, and then directly rose in August. Without a range-bound “bottom,” that isn’t really a bottom. Later, it will definitely come back to range and shake out the market until 90% of retail investors are washed out.

2. 2022 went through 6 months of grinding the base—even grinding into new lows. Only after most retail investors broadly surrendered did it have the momentum to pump all the way up.

3. The rallies in 2019 and now are both driven by external factors: in 2019 it was the start of the Fed cutting rates; this year in August it was liquidity brought by the U.S. Treasury + the squeeze that triggered the “shorts getting liquidated.”

The future path is:

1. Late October 2026 to early November, this wave of upside ends (maybe earlier). Around 95,000–98,000, everyone will be shouting 100,000—but you won’t actually reach 100,000.

2. December 2026 to September 2027: range-bound grinding the base.

3. In October 2027, the fifth halving bull market starts. In April 2028, the fifth Bitcoin halving is completed.

Timestamp: 2026-09-24 18:09.

This is not a bull market! This is not a bull market! This is not a bull market!

This is important, so I’ll say it three times—because some friends who missed the move have started asking me whether they should chase the price up.

I can understand that feeling, because I basically missed this round of the rally too.

Going against the Fed’s rate-hike cycle and the Bitcoin cycle, a lot of technical-style KOLs and old-season greenhorns have also missed the rally—so does that make it feel a little better…

As mentioned above, this is not a bull market; at most it’s a “monkey market”! Because the fundamentals don’t support a bull market.

Today I saw a certain theory: on November 3, the U.S. midterm elections. To keep attracting and winning over crypto voters, Trump allegedly has to neutralize every piece of bad news so that the market stays supported until after the election.

That idea is kind of interesting, but it also fits the market fundamentals: whether you call the “small bull market” or “monkey market” of 2019, and the current situation, at their core they’re both “corrective rebounds” after a bear market.

However, this time the market is facing Fed hikes to 3.75%–4%, whereas in 2019 the Fed rate was cut from 2.25%–2.50% down to 1.50%–1.75%.

So if you can’t help yourself and feel compelled to act, just go find a pullback and do some swing trades. Don’t get too big-picture optimistic—don’t expect a huge bull run. If the market goes wrong, cut losses in time. Don’t “hold through it,” and also take profit on time—don’t be greedy.

In “Liangjian,” Teacher Chang said to Li Yunlong: You need an iron mouth, steel teeth, and a wooden butt—what are you sitting there for? Go experience it. No one can go through every bit of excitement in the world!

In the crypto space, 90% of the time is boring market action, 5% of the time is watching others make money, and the remaining 5% is when you make money. Grab that 5% and that’s when your destiny explodes.

BTC weekly chart is above the 50-week MA; ETF saw nearly $1 billion in net inflows in a single day; short-squeezing plus exchange balances at a 7-year low. Bitcoin is currently in a bullish alignment.

ETH staking has locked up over 35%; a few big whales rotated from BTC into ETH.

September 30 at 20:30 (US PCE data); October 2 at 20:30 (Non-Farm Payrolls data). These two data releases could trigger a market turning point.

On the short-term horizon, expect range-bound movement: 82,000–89,000. Low to buy, high to short.

Bitcoin bullish plan: 85,000 and 83,000—enter long once price reaches these levels. If there’s a pullback to 80,000, you can add to the long; stop-loss at 78,000. Take profit near new highs or in the 89,000–90,000 area.

With a greed level of 76—this wave’s upside momentum will most likely push BTC to test 92,000–95,000, and ETH to test 3,000–3,200.

However, whether it’s the Fed’s interest rates or Bitcoin’s own cycle, neither currently supports a full-blown bull market. A choppy rebound phase will likely continue until late October, followed by a gradual pullback as the market looks for a bottom—or remains in a bearish-style range.

For specifics, you can参考 2019’s April–July market action—it’s similar to the current situation.

比特币会到9万吗？
Next, will Bitcoin reach 90,000, and will ETH reach 3,000?
Or will we first see a sharp drop and a shakeout? Welcome to the livestream!
Come trade with @CoffeeTree