$ETH over these past couple of days there’s been some pretty wild data: roughly 830,000 ETH are queued to request unstaking. But don’t rush to call a sell-off yet.
A large part of this is related to people actively exiting after the MetaMask security incident. Unstaking ≠ selling. What’s even more interesting is the other side: the amount of ETH queued to enter and stake is close to 1.5 million, which is more than what’s leaving.
So for now I’m not bearish on $ETH. The real danger is that once MetaMask’s batch has been digested, the exit queue keeps getting longer.
For this Bitcoin run, what I think is most worth watching isn’t yet another dip to around 87,000. It’s that the money really is back.
In Q3, U.S. spot $BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $6.34 billion; in Q2, they were still net outflows of roughly $5 billion. In and out—there’s a difference of over $10 billion.
What’s even more interesting is that $BTC itself also rose by about 43% in Q3.
So for now, I don’t really want to jump to a bearish stance easily. Price increases aren’t scary. When prices rise and new money keeps flowing in, that’s what makes it genuinely hard to short.
Now, 87,000 is still the line in the sand. If the market can truly hold above here, then it won’t be a question of “how much farther the rebound can go.” It’ll be a question of whether the market wants to start counting the bull market from scratch.
Strategies to Beat Copycat Coins! As long as you have the drive to execute! For coins that those “dog whales” can absolutely control and monopolize, use your left hand to sell to your right hand—whether you want to pump the market cap to tens of billions or even hundreds of billions, it’s possible! The candlestick chart can be drawn however you like! From now on, don’t look at market cap or any news/market narratives—most of it is basically unreliable! Look at TRB, RAVE, PIPPIN, LAB, TUT, LSK, AKE, and a bunch of others—many of them have gone up tens or even hundreds of times! For $AKE, first choose over effort. Not every altcoin is suitable to play, so you must pick one with a very large trading volume. And the kind of posts where the forum is flooded with them—extremely high heat! A huge number of retail participants! How exactly to operate: 1. Money management: split your principal into 50 parts. 2. When playing a coin, take out only 1 part, and trade with just 1x, only going long—unless it drops to 0, you won’t get wiped out! 3. If you lose, don’t add to the position. Just hold on to it and become a friend of time! 4. Only go long. Never go short! One altcoin—“dog whales” might control the play for months! ⚠️: If you lose, never—ever—add more. Don’t think about averaging down. That kind of gambler’s mentality only happens once, or infinite times! And never short. Once you taste the sweet, you can’t stop! ⚠️: Never short! Let’s use a business investment example: a large investment bank invests in 50 projects over a one-year period. Most of them lose money, while a few projects make huge profits. Those winners can generate several times—or even dozens of times—the cost in profit, and then after covering the losses from the others, there’s still incremental profit left. This is what “positive expected value” investing means! After all, when those dog whales pump a single altcoin contract, it costs tens of millions. Even if it gets delisted, the market cap can still have hundreds of millions of dollars left. The result is: some coins rise only 1–2x, some rise 3–5x, some rise tens of times, even hundreds of times! Don’t look at any bearish or bullish news—basically it’s all not reliable. Just see how many people are short, and how many are trapped. Watch retail sentiment. Don’t touch coins inside web3 wallets—don’t buy just because it looks cheap. Only play coins listed on exchanges—with contract trading pairs. Only play those with high trading volume and high attention. $
Spot is about 179 Down about −3% for the day The day high is still 185 The low was tapped around 176 Trading volume is about 33.5 million USD Yesterday they were still talking about touching this year’s high Today first give back a portion of the gains V4 deposits are over 1 billion The buyback / foundation narrative is still ongoing That doesn’t mean you can still chase the price up
Pullbacks from the yearly high are totally normal First see who can hold up 176–185 If nobody can, treat it as DeFi overheated and filling back in
$WLD rebound is still ongoing But the flow of chips is not entirely clean
Spot price is around 0.596 Up about +4% in a day The intraday high touched 0.619 The low is still at 0.527 Trading volume is around 94 million USD For CEX, net inflows are still pending at roughly the 910k coin range Some people have also pointed out signs of wash trading There’s no new project catalyst that has been implemented
If price moves upward, it doesn’t necessarily mean the main players are accumulating First look at 0.53–0.62—who can take it If no one can, then that rebound $use the selling-out window
$SAND Over there in South Korea, they first removed the yellow light and the price was raised directly by a whole tier
Spot is about 0.075 In a day, roughly +19% The intraday high touched 0.084 The low is still at 0.059 Trading volume is about $67 million Upbit / Bithumb / Coinone Remove the trading warning first That bridging casting line has been hanging from August until now When the news lands, the volume first surges
Being overheated doesn’t mean it can still keep straight up RSI is already overheated First watch who can hold up 0.07–0.08 If it can’t be held, then When the news pulse hits
On Friday, net inflows were only about $31.7 million $FBTC alone accounted for about $29.3 million The spike on Thursday was closer to $88 million The pace is clearly down a notch
This month so far, there’s still roughly $120 million in net inflows Not a collapse But it’s no longer like yesterday, where one fund was hard-carrying everything
Spot $BTC is around 84,800 Down about −0.5% over the day The daily high is still around 85,300 The low was tapped around 83,900
Inflows are still there But it doesn’t mean it’s already been fully cleared above 87,000 First, see what happens after the weekend On Monday, whether the market opens and continues with reduced volume
$ENA Unlock doors are only left for tomorrow The price is still being ground down
Spot around 0.233 Down about −4.1% per day The daily high is still 0.244 The low was poked to about 0.228 Trading volume about $27.4 million
On October 5, investors will unlock about 1.4 billion tokens That’s roughly more than 10% of circulating supply Right before the finish line, the biggest fear is both sides chasing
bStocks / the narrative structure is still there It doesn’t mean you can keep adding excitement after the unlock First look: who steps in above 0.23? If it can’t be held, cut a little first to cool things down
$NVDA touched a new intraday all-time high on Friday then gave back part of the gains into the close
U.S. close was around 234 roughly +1.3% on the day intraday high reached 237.9 low was still 233.6 trading volume was about 135 million shares market cap was still in the 5.7 trillion dollar range AI supply-chain pricing continues to lift it higher For the weekend, just leave Friday's candle hanging there don't start imagining Monday's open too early
A new high is a signal not an automatic perpetual engine first watch whether 234–238 can take turns leading if it can't hold, treat it as a pullback after the breakout$NVDA.US
$BTC has probed the high around 87,000 After it gets smashed down In the next 24 hours, the whole network liquidates about $434 million Longs liquidated about $322 million Shorts liquidated about $112 million Longs make up roughly 74% In the past 12 hours, longs have nearly been maxed out Single-coin liquidation on Bitcoin is about $104 million Ethereum is also around the $105 million level Yesterday we were still talking about the shorts getting liquidated first But the price action flipped the direction Spot has now returned to around 84,800 Let it range between 84,000–85,000 first
Don’t chase the liquidation direction and add leverage Wait until the shakeout becomes dull before discussing direction
There are reports that the U.S. Zcash spot ETF this week had net outflows of about $93.56 million Since it was listed at the end of August, this is the first time net outflows have occurred in a single week. Fund net assets are down to roughly the $750 million level
Spot is around 1308. In a day, about -1%. The day’s high is still around 1335. The low dipped to around 1283. Trading volume is about $95 million. From the September peak near 1700, it’s already given back quite a bit.
Outflows don’t mean it will go to zero right away, but it’s a fact that buy-side liquidity has thinned. First, watch who can take the 1280–1335 range. If it can’t be held, don’t chase highs—beta first.
Oil Prices Are Soaring, Gold Prices Are Plunging: Understanding the Logic Behind This “Abnormal” Move to Know What Your Wallet Is Experiencing
Oil prices are surging and gold prices are plunging: understanding the logic behind this “abnormality” is how you know what your wallet is going through In recent times, global financial markets have seen a curious scene: gold has plunged while oil has surged. On one side, the king of commodities—crude oil prices—keeps climbing; on the other, the traditional safe-haven asset, gold, is being sold off. These two types of assets are usually seen as barometers of inflation expectations, yet they are now tracing almost completely opposite paths. What macro logic lies behind this? And for ordinary people, how will this “oil rising and gold falling” show up in the ledgers of everyday life?
Fear greed drops to 65 $BTC first managed to spit out 87,000
Spot is about 84,800 Up about +0.2% per day The day high is still at 85,000 The low was poked around 84,500 $ETH about 2,690 $SOL about 120 Yesterday greed was still at 67 Today it moved down one more notch
87,000 didn’t hold For now it’s grinding between 84,000–85,000 Don’t treat a pullback as the trend—it's already dead And don’t treat a rebound as a breakout to solve everything First look at 84,000 Who can take it up above
$IBIT’s single-day net inflow is roughly $196 million All Bitcoin spot ETF across the whole market add up to only about $103 million Others combined are net outflows It alone turned the price action green
Over the past month $IBIT has accumulated net purchases of about $1.57 billion accounting for more than half of the total net inflow into all spot ETFs Its scale is around the $109 billion range
Spot $BTC is roughly 84,700 down about −2.1% in a day the day high is still around 87,200 the low was poked around 83,900 Fear & Greed is still at 67
Institutional channels are still buying It doesn’t mean that once above 87,000 is already fully cleared First, look at who can hold up 84.0–85.0 If they can’t, just treat the “ETF inflow” as background noise
Ali Charts calls it out In the sideways trading over the past week, whale holdings have dropped by about 30,000 coins. At the current price, that’s on the order of about $2.5B. 87k is exactly sitting right at the top of the recent channel. A push higher getting capped a bit isn’t surprising.
Spot is around 84,600. Down about −2.1% in a day. The day’s high is still 87,220. The low was probed down to about 83,900. Fear & Greed is still at 67.
Long liquidations already played out once during the day. The whale is still cutting positions. Distribution at the highs may not be finished.
First, see if 82,500 has a real buyer to catch it. If it can’t hold, don’t treat a rebound as a reversal.
SEC custody rules have pushed forward another step
For investment advisers and funds when they cannot find a qualified custodian, they may allow certain self-custody for clients’ encrypted assets State-chartered trust companies can also be added to the custody roster This is paving the way for institutions to directly obtain coins Not to hand retail investors fresh leverage
Spot $BTC at around 84,600 Down about −2.1% in a day The day’s high is still around 87,200 The low tapped about 83,900 Fear & Greed is still at 67
A proposal doesn’t mean it can be bought immediately It still has to go through the comment period before implementation Don’t hear “can be custodied” and take it as “start right away” First, check that the rules are explicitly written Let’s talk about position sizing
$ENA The door unlock is only two days away The price is still being pushed down
Spot is about 0.232 About −7% per day The day high is still 0.252 The low was poked down to around 0.228 Trading volume is about 42 million USD
On October 5, investors will unlock about 1.4 billion tokens That’s roughly more than 10% of the circulating supply Once it’s released early, it’s all gone
No It’s not a big deal
bStocks / The narrative is still there Doesn’t mean you can just close your eyes and chase before the unlock
First, see who steps in above 0.23 If they can’t hold it, then cut a bit first—don’t just enjoy the noise
$QNT Just after getting poked and slammed 224 Now it has already swallowed the dip back again
Spot is about 266 Up about +17% in a day The intraday high has touched 267 The low is still at 224 Trading volume is still around the 70M dollars level The bank-rail narrative hasn’t died The parabolic pullback is not over either The two-day consecutive wash—worst if you end up chasing both sides
First, see who can hold up 255–267 If it can’t hold, just treat it as a volatility digestion phase Don’t let the Sibos headline get played twice again