华尔街之猫-DQ

Finance with wisdom, knowing when to hold and when to let go; prioritize risk control before seeking returns.

Daily in-depth market analysis, with exclusive one-on-one guidance;
Adhere to long-term, steady appreciation, and reject short-term speculation and games of chance.

Plan first, then act; know when to stop, and you’ll gain.
I am Ding Qing—together with you on this long journey through the market.

SanDisk is now having its momentum compressed into a narrow range of just 65 points. The pressure on the other side is building—soon it will need to choose a breakout direction. After that, it will most likely develop into a severe two-way tug-of-war.

At this stage, this kind of narrow-range chop isn’t suitable for heavy-position, high-stakes play.
If you want to trade the range back and forth, you must keep it light—no matter whether highs are high or lows are deep, use a light position!
A safer approach is to wait until the amplitude expands back to normal daily fluctuations (120–180 points), and only then enter the market in a proper way.

During the consolidation/accumulation phase, stop-outs from back-and-forth sweeps are the easiest to trigger. Don’t rush to place orders—wait patiently for the price action to show its direction.

$SNDK #黄金反弹近5% #比特币创2023年3月来最佳周表现 #比特币日内触及75500美元

Big Pie now wants to pull back in a decent way—it requires a clear top-of-range K-line signal.

For example, in a bearish engulfing pattern: a large bearish candle that directly engulfs the previous bullish candles provides the basic condition for a pullback, and only then does it become possible to revisit and test the trendline.

Looking back at the current position—right now, there isn’t a bearish engulfing pattern; there’s no signal. If there’s no signal, how can there be a pullback?

Once Big Pie breaks out above 795 with increased volume, the next target is 815.

Combining with Fibonacci retracement levels: as long as the price pulls back without breaking through the 61.8–78.6 support zone, no matter how much it fluctuates and drops, it still falls within the normal pullback range.

Pullbacks to the 38.2 and 50 levels are both constructive adjustments. As long as the 61.8–78.6 support zone is held, the overall structure remains healthy—there’s absolutely no need to panic.

⚠️ Right now, doing long entries is only suitable for waiting for a right-side signal. Never try to guess a top on the left side. If you insist on hard-longing on the left side, I can only say you’re basically gambling on luck.

Short-term trading reference:

If volume picks up and price holds steadily above 781, then follow with a right-side momentum entry; targets are 795–805;
If it can’t hold above 781, the bulls can’t open up the upside space.

On the other hand, if volume breaks down below 774 and the retest can’t be recovered, then consider a right-side short. Be sure to set your stop-loss.

If there’s no signal, don’t subjectively fantasize about a drop. Respect the signals provided by the chart before you take action.

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One Dan Shi Wan oil, this is why the market in August is still bustling with many singers, saying that the big cake that 'died'

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I’ve said “a thousand and ten thousand times” during the livestream: if it’s a long-term trend and it’s going up—then at 610, as long as it doesn’t break, just go long directly. Go long blindly.

After streaming for a month, I’ve personally witnessed it move from 61,500 to what it is today—78,000. And then you tell me that the “big cake” (the narrative) has “died”? What?

I’m back—I didn’t leave. Ever since the surge from SanDisk, I’ve been telling you not to trade against the trend—don’t trade against the trend! If you can’t help yourself, then just wait for a pullback. The best entry is always something you wait for, not something you “do more of” and then get a chance.

These past three days’ “big cake” everyone has seen for themselves! Going against the trend only traps you—you can get stuck in a position you can’t even get out of. I said before: 610 is a strong support; as long as it holds at 615, just go long blindly.

Once the range from 610 to 655’s correction/channel support is broken, the upward structure is immediately opened—hitting 70,000 or 80,000 is absolutely not a problem.

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This big bet from 645 to 774—within just three days, over ten thousand dīn—is it still that you’re feeling around for the top and playing the dip? Can’t you stop? Don’t you feel uncomfortable doing the “right move” following my 645?

Let me tell you what you have to take when you go against the trend: the trend’s inertia will always exceed your imagination. If you always try to precisely catch the major top and buy the major bottom, the difficulty is as hard as climbing to heaven. Not only does it consume massive energy staring at every tick, it also puts extreme demands on your technical foundation, your trading system, the accumulation from real practice, and your ability to judge the chart. Even seasoned pros have “died” doing this, let alone beginners.

It’s undeniable that this approach is tempting: once you manage to guess the position correctly, the short-term gains can be explosive—seemingly more satisfying than trading with the trend. But! Most people only see the glamorous success of going against the trend, and ignore the brutal costs behind it.

Once the price moves, above the top there may still be new highs, and below the bottom there may still be new lows. Entering against the trend makes it easy to fall into a situation of continuously holding losses—only to get trapped deeper and heavier. Even if your direction logic seems fine, as long as the trend doesn’t reverse, your unrealized loss will keep expanding. Under leverage, whether you can survive in the market is still unknown.

Trading “against” isn’t a one-shot gamble for a single knockout. It’s about making high-probability repeated plays. Instead of betting on the low-probability attempt to top-tick and bottom-tick, it’s better to honestly follow the trend that has already formed.

Trading with the trend might not let you eat the entire fish head and tail, but at least it can help you avoid most of the catastrophic losses. The market is best at punishing people who are eager to bet on a reversal. Isn’t trading with the trend more pleasant?

Is it harming you to let you do the “right move” at 645?

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The short-term relative pressure levels I personally observed are at 80000. One thousand people, one thousand Hamlets—just for reference.

The real watershed: 830. Only by holding above this level can we break the downward trend that started from 126000, and thereby stand on the prior rebound high point—potentially confirming a bottoming reversal.

Looking back, all the previous rises were merely rebounds within a larger downtrend. This time, as long as 830 is firmly held, the “xíng qīng level” will be completely different.

Even so, you can still gamble on a pullback from the high area, but you need patience and wait for the pullback—refuse to guess the top too early.

The final “outcome” is the only correct answer.

$BTC $ETH #比特币日内触及75500美元 #比特币两个月来首破7万美元 #BTC突破$72000

The big cake is 75k, breakfast is at 4k, 19,564 oil.

Throw all the electric scooters away!

In the early stage, at these positions 615‑628‑638‑645‑655, I kept trying to persuade you to get on—get on, get on without thinking. “I’m afraid,” “Isn’t it too high?”

And you just watched it slip by with your own eyes—the start of Line Qing.

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In the midst of joking and banter, the market surged by 1,000 points. So breakfast flatbread—3,000 mu—will be delivered to everyone.

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Yesterday I reminded everyone: once 720 breaks through effectively, directly go long. The target of 733 has already been hit—so these two thousand “dian” (entries) are feeling really comfortable to hold.

Right now, for the big BTC, as long as it breaks through 740 effectively, the bottom central zone of this current bullish cycle will be lifted up to 653.

Once this new bottom is confirmed and holds steady, this price level—[text cut/garbled]—is very likely something we won’t see again for the next 3 years.

Even if there’s a pullback afterward, the nature of it will be completely different from the move in May.

In mid-May, the monthly MACD’s two lines were still hovering high above the zero line; now the indicators have already fallen back to around the zero line. As long as the bottom gradually flattens out, the real “big one-way” upward trend in the bullish cycle will be officially underway.

On the short-term front, a retest is an opportunity to “seek the position” to enter.

But also be clear: being bullish on the big trend doesn’t mean you should chase the high blindly with your eyes closed—you still need to manage your position sizing. If the direction of the higher timeframe is right, the short-term shakeouts will also bring huge volatility/breaking moves.

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As early as the beginning of July and August, I had already clearly stated my long-term bullish outlook for this setup. I also said that this direction could only truly unfold after August!

Getting the big direction right doesn’t mean you can just blindly enter and lie back for guaranteed gains—unless you’re at the position around 615 that I emphasized at the beginning of July.

In this upswing, there’s a very strong forced-buy thrust mixed in, and when it rises, the momentum is truly unstoppable.

Even if the long- and mid-term big direction is correct, the short term will still see extreme volatility. Chasing at high levels, holding heavy positions stubbornly— even when your trend judgment is right—you can easily be shaken out while markets whip back and forth.

Now the market’s heat is rising, and the screen is full of talk about striking it rich.
You must distinguish two things: trend analysis for the mid- and long-term is one matter; short-term entry and position/ship-size risk control are another.

Looking at the mid- and long-term, it doesn’t mean ignoring triggers and making mindless bets—your entry level is especially crucial!

As things heat up, the more you need to hold the tolerance line you set for yourself. In the midst of the celebration, the so-called “risk line” often hides during the moments when everyone relaxes their guard.

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Spot gold surged more than 10% in August, reaching $4,500. Multiple macro tailwinds converged: weakening U.S. data, the implementation of Treasury buyback policies, and central banks around the world continuing to add to gold, alongside geopolitical risk hedging.

Many people directly link gold and “the big pancake” (crypto/Bitcoin). Here, it’s important to sort out the logic: gold is a traditional safe-haven asset, while “the big pancake” is a highly liquid, high-volatility risk asset. Only in an environment of abundant liquidity can both rise together. The falling U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar are the shared macro backdrop behind this rally in both gold and the crypto market.

But gold has already entered an overbought zone, so there is pressure for a pullback. In crypto, it’s the same: macro conditions are the soil, but they don’t mean “up only.” Don’t blindly go all-in on macro tailwinds—when conditions are getting hot, you still need to keep your pockets securely closed.

$BTC $ETH #BTC突破$72000 #ETH突破$2300 #美国初请失业金人数降至20.6万

Over these past couple of days, [the price] has been wildly sweeping up and down—within a short time it swung directly to six or seven thousand and then back. The roller-coaster ride gives you an immersive “thrills to the max” experience.

I still remember that at the start of July I was already clear about a long-bias bullish plan for the big pie. Getting the trend direction right doesn’t mean you can act recklessly.

When the trend comes, you can definitely get to “eat meat,” but in extreme chop, what most easily hurts people is greed and luck/hope.

In this upswing, part of the strength is driven by forced buying—when it goes up, it’s loud and dramatic, and when it pulls back, it’s just as ruthless. One second you’re celebrating the high, and the next second you can quickly see gains fully given back.

Many people see a big rise and get hot-headed—adding leverage and charging in at high levels. Others stubbornly hold against the trend in “single positions,” always fantasizing that the market will give them one chance to get out at breakeven.

The market won’t spoil anyone. Even if the larger trend is upward, a daily “activation” of six thousand doesn’t take long to sweep back and forth, stripping those with heavy positions and no protection.

Getting the big direction right is only the first step. Position sizing, stop-loss, and the entry timing—none of them can be missing.

Don’t blindly go all-in just because the trend looks correct, and don’t think it’s guaranteed profit just because there’s a short-term blowout. Going with the trend doesn’t mean closing your eyes and rushing. The more狂热 it gets, the tighter your risk control must be!

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Crypto—don’t just see the rally; you need to understand the logic behind it:

In the early stage, the market was stuck in sideways movement for a long time. Over 80% of participants were effectively just “trapped,” and a large amount of leveraged positions accumulated during that range.

Once the U.S. Treasury repo news hit, yields fell. Combined with favorable policy, BTC broke out directly.

The acceleration in the second half of this move is a textbook case of forced liquidations, similar to what happened on the 17th—same mechanism. The outcomes are obvious: liquidations stop out positions, leverages get wiped, and passive buying pushes the price higher and higher, until it rides ahead uncontested. As a result, ETH and SOL also benefited.

Looking ahead, there are three points:
Can it hold the new high? Can spot inflows keep coming in continuously? And will U.S. Treasuries reverse again and strengthen?

If this rally is merely liquidation-driven—then when it comes on fast, it will end fast too.

But if spot inflows keep up as the relay, and the earlier resistance levels turn into support, then this rally level is completely different.

So the next two days are truly the real “touchstone.”

If BTC holds its high range, and ETH and SOL keep increasing volume, then it’s not just simple liquidation.

If it drops quickly back into the earlier consolidation channel, then this round can be viewed as a large-scale liquidation-driven rally.

Once you understand the underlying logic, you won’t be carried away emotionally by the headline “pump” on the surface.

$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破$72000 #ETH突破$2300 #灰度拟将Zcash信托上市纽交所Arca

This wave of violent surge—also has to thank the steady stream of “倥頭” (hype/driving force).

When the “倥军” blew up the cargo bay for 2 billion in its early hours, it helped push the “行青”一路向上 (keep rising step by step).

Whether it’s blog posts or past livestreams, they repeatedly reminded: if 615 is not broken, the pace will be a slow grind up—don’t overfocus on “倥” for no reason. When 645 holds steady, the sell-off ends, and “行青” will welcome a reversal.

Many people still go along with inertia, thinking: if it’s up a lot, it must fall. A lot of market analysts can’t make sense of the structure and just throw out random calls—following them and not losing big is basically luck.

The scene is a mix of all kinds of people. Stay sharp—don’t end up being the one who gets harvested.

$BTC $ETH #BTC突破$72000 #ETH突破$2300

Posting wins isn’t to make you think I’m so awesome—it’s to let you know that trading was never meant to be permanently undefeated; if there’s winning, there’s losing. Losing isn’t scary. What’s scary is losing but refusing to admit it, stubbornly carrying on to the bitter end, turning a “single loss” into a whole loss of capital!

If the direction is wrong, stop in time. When you’re making money, preserve part of the liquidity/profit. Use the rest to take a chance on a bigger gain.

Are you more the type to believe in getting rich overnight, or the type to explode your account overnight? Only steadily growing your account over time and accumulating little by little is the real purpose of trading. Don’t forget your original intention.

$BTC $ETH #BTC突破$72000 #ETH突破$2300

The big cake has regained stability at 70,000! With five thousand deductions and above moving in a day, do you still think it’s “dead”?

This main move phase is definitely something many people have missed out on—stepping in late or getting trapped. The core reason is that they can’t read the structure: they’re afraid of the height, greedy for the low. The levels 615-628-638-645-655 have all clearly provided opportunities to get on board. The result for those afraid of the height is missing the launch phase.

Let’s correct a misconception: what’s happening now is a trend reversal, not a short-term rebound! The hourly and four-hour structures have completely overturned the previous setup. Once a trend is formed, it absolutely won’t end easily.

For the outlook, if it breaks through 720, then look directly at 733-740. For defense, hold at 705. Don’t look for a deep pullback unless 705 breaks. As for this play, I advise you not to go against the trend and try to “top tick” with bids. Do what’s right on the right side—wait for confirmation and breakouts to follow the trend. Going against the trend only gets you hit. The market is always fair on the surface.

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Took over 1121 points 5617 oil, I had a hunch—didn’t want to hold on for too long, and just like you told them not to hesitate when the uptrend is strong…

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650 stabilized, boldly seeing 70,000. What’s happening right now—this “cooling” move—can be said to be within expectations. I’ve always been very unclear about those analysts in the market who are calling for a big drop.

I’ve said it again and written it again: only when it effectively breaks the key support at 615-610 can you then go look at 590, 580, or even 54,000 and 40,000—whatever. These past two months, 615 hasn’t been touched again. So why, exactly, are you seeing the “5” at the start of the pie? Because you’re the king of the air force?

Lady Aunt, for every piece of evidence used to proclaim such a big pie, the truth will speak for me:

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