Glassnode

Executive Summary

Liquidity continues to contract across on-chain and spot markets, with net capital inflows grinding to a halt, and exchange inflows slowing down.

Open Interest across futures contracts has pulled back, suggesting a reduction in hedging and speculative activity. Alongside this, an unwind in the cash-and-carry trade on CME Group futures appears to be underway, providing additional headwinds for market liquidity.

Key options metrics express a preference for downside risk aversi

Overview

The Bitcoin market continues to navigate a complex landscape, with spot market strength contrasting with ETF outflows, declining futures activity, and weakening on-chain conditions. Options markets show heightened risk perception, while profitability and liquidity indicators suggest growing investor caution.

Spot markets have shown resilience, with rising price momentum and steady trading activity, though ETF flows have turned sharply negative, signalling institutional de-risking. Fut

Executive Summary

Bitcoin entered a phase of strong investor distribution in early January, with the Accumulation Trend Score confirming persistent sell-side pressure.

Heightened volatility, weak demand, and liquidity constraints have prevented meaningful accumulation from restarting, reinforcing downside risks.

Panic-driven selling has intensified, with STH-SOPR spiking well below the break-even level of 1, signalling fear and loss realization among recent buyers.

A custom SOPR-adjusted CDD

Introduction

User retention is a fundamental measure of business health and a key success indicator for any industry with growth ambitions. It reflects how consistently users engage with a product or service over time.

For instance, a platform might report 100,000 weekly active users, but if 80% never return after their first interaction, its growth is unsustainable. Therefore, retention effectively encapsulates engagement, loyalty, and long-term viability, all of which directly impact profita

Executive Summary:

Digital Assets have experienced significant sell-side pressure in recent weeks, with Bitcoin tumbling by -28%, and Ethereum and Solana prices collapsing by more than -50% since their cycle highs.

As the market sells off, realized losses have increased massively, recording the second largest loss taking event of the cycle, and underscoring the severity of the correction.

The major digital assets did rebound briefly following the announcement of a Strategic Digital Asset Rese

In our previous article on the practical applications of the Cost Basis Distribution metric (CBD), we explained the concept of cost basis lines to show how investors increase or decrease their cost-basis.

This week, we’ll look at how sharp shifts in supply at certain price levels reflect investors throwing in the towel - often a key indicator of a local market bottom.

Cost Basis Distribution - A Quick Recap

CBD reflects the total supply held by addresses with an average cost basis within spec

Executive Summary

Bybit suffered one of the largest hacks in crypto history, losing 403,996 ETH (~$1.13B) from its cold wallets due to a smart contract exploit. This breach led to panic withdrawals, with total exchange outflows reaching approximately $4.3B across Bitcoin and stablecoins.

Market sentiment deteriorated rapidly, triggering a broad sell-off. Bitcoin monthly performance dropped to -13.6%, while Ethereum (-22.9%), Solana (-40%), and Meme Coins (-36.9%) erased months of gains, resett

In our ongoing mission to push the boundaries of on‑chain analytics, we are excited to announce the expansion of Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) coverage beyond Bitcoin – now incorporating Ethereum (ETH), ERC‑20 tokens, and SPL tokens.

This marks a significant leap in visibility over how investors position themselves across multiple asset classes – shedding light on market conviction, capitulation, and the evolving cost basis of investors.

Below, we revisit what CBD is, why it is such a powerful

Executive Summary

After Bitcoin’s second attempt to break above $105k in late January, the market has entered a contraction phase, with monthly price momentum sharply declining across major assets.

Bitcoin has held relatively steady, while Ethereum, Solana, and Memecoins have faced much deeper corrections, reflecting a shifting appetite for risk.

Solana has emerged as a market leader in capital inflows over the past two years, in contrast to Ethereum, which has comparatively struggled to attr

Executive Summary:

Bitcoin investors have realized large losses during the downturn, with BTC prices falling as far as $93k.

When we normalize these losses into a BTC denomination however, the severity of the damage does appear to be in line with other local corrections.

The majority of the locked in losses originate from the Short-Term Holder cohort, as local top buyers experience a rapid decline in their profitability.

The Altcoin sector took the heaviest relative losses during the downtur

Executive Summary

Bitcoin has evolved into a global asset with extremely deep liquidity that is available at all hours of the day. This creates the conditions for investors to speculate, trade, and express their macro-economic views at times when traditional markets are closed.

Bitcoin continues to prove itself as an emerging store of value asset, accruing over $850B in net capital inflows. It also serves a role as a medium of exchange asset, processing nearly $9B in economic volume per day.

The current bull market shows several structural similarities to the 2015–2018 cycle. We explore this idea from the perspective of the drawdown profile, price performance, and changes in the Realized Cap. We also address misconceptions about exchange balances, helping to frame up how many coins are in the custody of these large entities.

Executive Summary

Cyclical Market Growth: The rate of Bitcoin price appreciation has declined cycle by cycle, reflecting a path into market maturity. The draw

Executive Summary:

Capital flows into Bitcoin remain positive, although they have declined in magnitude since first reaching $100k. This highlights a period of declining sell-side pressure as the market approaches a near-term equilibrium.

Sell-side pressure from long-term investors has also declined, alongside volumes deposited to exchanges for sale.

Several measures of volatility are tightening up, with the market trading within a historically narrow 60-day price range, often a sign that the

Executive Summary

Bitcoin has entered a correction phase, trading -11% below its ATH of $108k but remaining above key support levels, retaining a constructive market structure.

Z-Score analysis suggests cyclical highs typically align with various metrics trading 1.5 to 2.0σ above the mean, offering a framework to help navigate bullish market phases.

Bitcoin's current price is around 10% above the Short-Term Holders' cost basis of $88.4k, underscoring a potential risk of downside if momentum s

💡 New SPL (Solana Programmable Language) Insights: 61 Solana Tokens, Including 52 Memecoins, Now Supported We’re excited to roll out fundamental metrics for 61 Solana-based tokens, including 52 memecoins. These assets now have address activity, transfer activity, and volume metrics. For those with a perpetual futures market, these new metrics complement the existing futures metrics. You can explore these new insights in the SPL Assets category on the charts page. More assets and expanded metric

Executive Summary:

A striking degree of similarity in the Bitcoin price trajectory can be observed across prior cycles despite vastly differing market scales, investor composition, and market structure dynamics.

With price trading above $100k for a few weeks now, Long-Term Holders are taking the opportunity to distribute supply into fresh demand. This has resulted in a new ATH in realized profit being set, breaching $2.1B.

A notable portion of these profit taking volumes are originating from

Bitcoin's blockchain transparency unlocks unique insights into coin holder behavior. In this article, we reveal a fascinating power-law relationship between coin age and spending probability, offering a predictive framework for understanding investor behavior and coin dormancy. Read on to learn how these insights can help refine your on-chain analysis and inform better trading strategies.

Introduction

Bitcoin's transparent blockchain allows for detailed analysis of coin movements and holder be

Executive Summary

The Bitcoin price crossed the $100k mark for the first time on 5 December, after 5,256 trading days, and hitting a market cap briefly exceeding $2 Trillion.

Miners have earned a cumulative $71.49 Billion since inception, reflecting the network's robust security and economic incentives.

The network has processed a total of 1.12 Billion transactions and settled $131.25 Trillion in transfer volume, with entity-adjusted figures providing an even clearer view of genuine economic

Executive Summary

Bitcoin reached a new ATH of $99.4k after a prolonged period of trading within the range of $54k to $74k.

Several risk metrics we monitor have entered the Very High Risk 🟥 zone, reflecting a state of elevated unrealized profits and an increased susceptibility of investor sentiment to corrections.

The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio now shows intense profit-taking is underway, hinting at a potential period of near-term demand exhaustion.

With that said, realized profit volumes h

At the core of on-chain analytics for market intelligence lies a fundamental concept rooted in “timestamping” and “pricestamping”. The transparent nature of blockchain data allows us to observe every on-chain transaction and identify two key details:

When the movement of coins occurred – the timestamp.

At what price the transaction took place – the pricestamp.

This simple yet powerful principle allows us to calculate what is known as the realized price—the cost basis of those coins at the tim