道一社区Eric

3.10 Accurate Market Analysis:

Good afternoon everyone, BTC has fallen to $82000,
let's get straight to our key points.

(1)
The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market has experienced capital outflows for four consecutive weeks.
U.S. stocks have also declined for three weeks.
If Wednesday's CPI release is not negative, then the bad news of the past three months will come to an end, paving the way for a rebound.

(2)
Currently, the fear and greed index has dropped to 20, indicating extreme fear.
When others are fearful, we must remain rational.

(3)
The U.S. is launching a BTC strategic reserve, somewhat like the initial drop followed by a surge when ETFs are introduced.
The U.S. BTC strategic reserve will trigger a domino effect,
stimulating other countries to also start accumulating coins.
Additionally, it will benefit U.S. states to purchase coins through BTC strategic reserves at the state level.

(4)
Maintain a good mindset to cope with risks in the cryptocurrency market.
First stabilize your life, then stabilize your position in the crypto world; do not borrow money to trade cryptocurrencies.
Tesla's stock has dropped by 50%, let alone the crypto market, which is highly risky.
Use your time to work hard, earn money outside the market to increase your holdings at the bottom.

3.9 Accurate Market Analysis:

Good morning, brothers. The crypto summit on Friday,
where a group of big shots sat together to flatter Trump,
failed to bring any substantial benefits,
leading to BTC still being weak.

At the same time, Powell stated that he would not rush to cut interest rates until the new Trump administration's policies become clear.

The current market is still in panic,
under Trump's flip-flop tariff policy, the global financial market is turbulent.
People are worried about another crash in BTC, and funds are being cautious.

Let's get straight to our views:
(1) In the short term, it's hard for BTC to rise significantly.
Currently, BTC lacks a future leading positive factor and is highly correlated with the US stock market.
Whether it rises depends on the Fed's interest rate cuts.
Next Wednesday's CPI will be announced; if it's below 0.2%, it will help BTC return to $100,000.

(2) In the long term, BTC will rise further.
After BTC becomes a strategic reserve for the US, more and more listed companies and financial institutions will join in the purchasing.
The Bitcoin financial services company Fold announced on Friday that it has added 475 BTC to its treasury, valued at approximately $41 million.
The Texas Senate passed a Bitcoin reserve bill, and in the coming months, financial funds will be used for purchases.
Other companies are joining one after another...

(3) Beware of a pullback to $82,000.
Last week, BTC in Mentougou experienced movement; if it announces a sale, it could trigger a black swan crash, which is something to be cautious about.

(4) Overall, the situation is not too concerning.
US stocks have fallen significantly for three weeks, passing the most dangerous area.
If there is a rebound next week, it is expected to alleviate market panic, and BTC will rise accordingly.
Additionally, the average mining cost for BTC is around $85,000,
and those who bought in the last three months are at a loss, so this price is reasonable.

3.6 Accurate Market Analysis:

Although BTC has rebounded, the market is still in panic.
Today's cryptocurrency fear and greed index has risen to 25.
Yesterday it was 20, and a few days ago it was 10.

Trump's family continued to buy the dip this morning, purchasing BTC, ETH, and Move.

There is big news today: Mt. Gox will start transferring BTC worth $1.1 billion today.
If $1.1 billion worth of BTC is dumped, it could be very dangerous.
However, surprisingly, BTC is not falling but rising today; something unusual is happening.

A brother said he followed analysts from other groups and sold at $81,000,
still holding some short positions,
and asked me if it would drop to $70,000.
The probability of dropping to $70,000 is only 20%, unless Mt. Gox sells coins on exchanges,
or Trump cancels the BTC strategic reserve plan.
These past few days have encouraged everyone to hold firm, avoiding panic selling at the lowest point,
our analysis has been quite accurate.

Next, several major events:
(1) Tonight at 9:30, the number of unemployment claims will be announced.
Forecast: 235,000 people, better than expected is bullish, worse than expected is bearish.

(2) Tomorrow night at 9:30, non-farm payroll and unemployment rate will be announced, which is quite important.
Non-farm forecast: 15.3%, unemployment rate forecast: 4%.
If negative news occurs, BTC could drop by more than 2%.

(3) Saturday at 2:30 AM, Trump will host a cryptocurrency summit at the White House.
Details regarding BTC as a strategic reserve will be mentioned then.
We speculate that it may also involve tax reductions in the cryptocurrency sector.

From on-chain data, the buying power for BTC is strong, with many withdrawing to wallets.
A significant trend has formed over the past three months,
therefore we maintain a bullish outlook at the moment.

3.5 Accurate Market Analysis:

Hello, cryptocurrency friends. Yesterday, there was widespread panic during the day,
followed by a sharp decline in the evening after the US stock market opened, causing extreme panic.
Many brothers in the group couldn't sleep well.

Yesterday, I analyzed the reasons for the decline,
and discussed the subsequent trends and strategies.

Today, I want to emphasize again

The 7th Crypto Summit may bring the following news, benefiting the cryptocurrency market and starting a rebound:
(1) Introduction of a zero capital gains tax policy
(2) More information regarding strategic reserves

Additionally, considering the following situations:
(1) The current average cost of BTC mining is above $83,000, and miners have no profits left.
(2) On-chain data shows that BTC has been flowing out of exchanges in the past two days.
(3) The NASDAQ index has fallen for three consecutive weeks.
(4) People who bought in the last three months are all at a loss, and the profit-taking positions are minimal, weakening the selling pressure.

Current on-chain data shows that the
BTC reserves in exchanges have decreased compared to one month ago,
which is a good sign and should not cause panic.

In investing, it is important to establish your own logical system,
combined with others' analyses,
to have an independent judgment about the market.
Otherwise, you will fall into emotional trading, making trades based on feelings.
If trading based on feelings could make money,
then the whole world would be Buffett.

Yesterday and today are both risk periods,
avoid panic selling at the bottom, be patient and hold for a rebound,
the long-term outlook remains bullish.

Analysis: Summary of Reasons for the Decline

Yesterday, the cryptocurrency market erased the gains made the day before, primarily due to Trump's reckless actions, which dealt a heavy blow to the financial market.

(1) Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico starting Tuesday, with no room for negotiation.
(2) Trump stated that tariffs will be imposed on agricultural products.
(3) Trump announced an increase in tariffs on China.
(4) Trump indicated that tariffs would be imposed on countries that engage in currency devaluation as a form of sanction.

The four consecutive strikes led to a sharp decline in the U.S. stock market, marking the largest drop this year.
The cryptocurrency market has deeply integrated into traditional finance, making it difficult to remain unaffected and thus also experienced a decline.

Why do tariffs lead to a significant drop in risk assets?
Because tariffs lead to inflation, exacerbate global conflicts, increase corporate costs, and reduce profits, ultimately dragging down the global economy.

3.3 Precise Market Analysis:

Good afternoon everyone, last week's plunge,
Amid the panic across the market,
We clearly communicated that this was the bottom to hold on to.

The bottom around $80,000,
While many were panicking and cutting losses, a large number of influential figures around Trump were crazy about bottom fishing.
bc1q0 accumulated 2,100 BTC at a price of $84,860 (approximately $178.21 million)
Galaxy_Digital bottomed out with 657 BTC (approximately $61.58 million).
377Cr bottomed out with 332 BTC (approximately $31.25 million).

Yesterday, Trump said he was advancing a cryptocurrency strategic reserve that includes XRP, SOL, and ADA,
which will ensure that the U.S. becomes the world capital of cryptocurrency,
and then added: "Clearly, BTC and ETH, like other valuable cryptocurrencies,
will be at the core of the reserves. I also like Bitcoin and Ethereum!"

The market is rapidly recovering: BTC, ETH, and SOL have significantly bounced back,
XRP and ADA saw a rise of over 20% in 24 hours.

On-chain data shows that more than 10,000 BTC have flowed out of exchanges in recent days,
next is to hold on patiently.
Don't short, be careful of continued rises leading to liquidation.
Also, don't go crazy with long positions; short-term market conditions are hard to judge,
Long-term is definitely on the rise.

3.2 Accurate Market Analysis:

Dear friends, this week Trump's tariff policy has been causing chaos,
the global financial market has plunged,
U.S. stocks have almost erased the gains from 2025,
we in the cryptocurrency circle have experienced an epic correction,
comparable to the events of 519 a few years ago, with RSI and other indicators hitting their lowest.

Bitcoin has dropped 25% from its all-time high,
Ethereum has dropped 45% from its recent peak.

The PCE data released on Friday shows that inflation cooled in January, which is good news.

Many brothers easily fall into the trap of chasing highs and selling lows during short-term fluctuations,
losing most of their chips in the process,
then buying back when prices rise again, ultimately resulting in losses.

We cannot predict whether the next few days will see a rise or a fall,
but we can say that the overall trend is upward,
the whales have accumulated cheap chips at the bottom,
the next question is when to pump the price.

Some signs indicate that interest rate cuts may still be possible this year:
1. A sharp decline in U.S. consumer spending
2. Low consumer confidence
3. A significant increase in unemployment claims
4. Disappointing housing data, etc.

Next Friday at 21:30, the non-farm payroll and unemployment rate will be released.
If this is favorable for the cryptocurrency market, then BTC could quickly return to $120,000.
Previously, we mentioned that the current BTC drop has provided an offensive space for altcoins,
there may be a wave of altcoin season from April to June,
but it is still recommended to allocate 30% to BTC.

2.11 Accurate Market Analysis:

Hello everyone, a big event happened yesterday!

Trump signed an executive order, announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported to the United States.
Trump also stated that he would consider imposing tariffs on automobiles, chips, and pharmaceuticals.

Trump's remarks indicate that
risks and uncertainties facing the global financial markets have increased significantly,
and investors' demand for safe havens has therefore risen, causing gold to soar.

As a risk asset, BTC dropped to around $95,000 in response,
and quickly rebounded.
It still feels strong.
The first hurdle of this week's challenge has been successfully completed,
and there are two more to go:
(1) Wednesday at 23:00, Powell will provide testimony on the future direction of interest rates.
(2) Wednesday at 21:30, the U.S. January CPI will be released.

From on-chain data, Binance saw an outflow of 2,900 BTC, indicating a positive trend.
Generally speaking, coins sold within the circle flow into Binance.
If Binance's BTC reserves are decreasing, it proves that the buying power is strong.

The future is bright, but the road is tortuous.
Just hold on for another week; BTC may launch a large-scale counterattack.
It is recommended to allocate around 30% of your position in BTC to hedge against altcoin depreciation.

1.12 Accurate Market Analysis:

This week we experienced a major pullback after a rebound.

Wave after wave of bad news
1. First, the job vacancy data greatly exceeded expectations
2. Then it was reported that the US plans to sell 6.5 billion USD worth of BTC to crash the market
3. Yesterday's non-farm payroll data also greatly exceeded expectations, and US Treasury yields surged

Next week, after the strong non-farm payroll, the CPI comes into play!
The CPI for December will be announced at 9:30 PM on Wednesday

It is expected that before the CPI is released, the cryptocurrency market will not see significant gains
After the CPI is released, two scenarios:
(1) Either the bad news hits, causing a slight drop, and then a rebound due to expectations of Trump taking office
(2) Or the CPI falls short of expectations, benefiting the cryptocurrency market and leading to a rebound

Therefore, the probability of an increase next week is greater than a decrease

Due to the expectation that Trump will impose tariffs on trade partners after taking office,
and that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts,
last Friday's non-farm payroll data greatly exceeded expectations,
the USD surged in the short term,
closing this week at 109.64, marking six consecutive weeks of gains.

Yesterday we mentioned that the current expectations for interest rate cuts have dropped to a freezing point
The expectations for tariff policies after Trump takes office have also been released

If subsequent data or policies can change these expectations,
then it is highly likely that BTC will return to high levels

These days are just about being patient,
don't lose your position at the bottom.

1.3 Precise Market Analysis:

Good morning everyone, after the New Year's holiday,
BTC has sounded the horn for a counterattack.
If BTC stabilizes at $97,000, it will be relatively stable.
It is likely to rise by 4% within a week and return to the 100,000 mark.
$100,000 is a psychologically important threshold for people.
Once broken, confidence will increase, and major news outlets will report on it,
which will help altcoins to surge!

Regarding ETFs, there was a net outflow for five consecutive days, but it began to flow in yesterday.
Yesterday, there was an inflow of $80 million (the latest data from BlackRock has not yet been disclosed).

On-chain data shows:
In recent days, BTC has flowed out of exchanges.
The current supply is 20,000 BTC less than before the big drop in mid-December.
This means that during the big drop and correction period, large funds bought over 20,000 BTC at the bottom.
The cost of BTC for 60-day buyers has further increased, now above $95,000.

The rebound has just begun, do not panic sell,
just hold your coins patiently.

1.2 Precise Market Analysis:

Hello everyone, last week's analysis emphasized that everyone should buy the dip and hold on.
The big trend judgment is that a major rebound is expected after New Year's Day.
This morning, BTC stood above $95,000, and Uni is about to break through $14.

Yesterday alone, over 10,000 BTC flowed out of Coinbase.
Binance saw an inflow of 4,000 BTC.
Overall, it is still a net outflow; Coinbase is the stronghold for U.S. capital to buy the dip.
This indicates that large U.S. capital is still continuously buying the dip during this period.
By 2025, BTC is expected to break through ¥130,000.

From a technical indicator perspective:
(1) A three-week-long adjustment, profit-taking has cleared a portion.
(2) BTC is close to the 60-day moving average, indicating that the cost for buyers in the past two months is at this moment.
(3) The daily MACD has dropped to the zero axis and is starting to golden cross.

The major trends are laid out here:
(1) The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is still ongoing; there may be three rate cuts in 2025, possibly in March, June, and September.
(2) Trump is about to take office, and the expectation of BTC being included in the national reserves is still there (regardless of whether it can be implemented).
(3) From a long-term perspective, the consensus around BTC is continually increasing:
3.1 After Trump takes office, the U.S. tariff policy intensifies de-globalization, prompting other countries' central banks to buy BTC.
3.2 The expanding debt pressure affects the credit of the dollar, strengthening BTC's position.

12.29 Accurate market analysis:

Good morning everyone, generally speaking, the weekend market is the coldest.
On Friday, the US stock market fell across the board, affecting the price of BTC, which is also a risky asset!
The market will open tomorrow,
Some people will panic about the US stock market after tomorrow's opening.
Therefore, BTC may have a small drop today, and it is possible to step back to $93,000.

BNB has risen secretly, and the daily MACD has formed a cash fork pattern.
This wave of BTC stabilized and rebounded, and BNB is going to $850.

FTM performed poorly, but don't worry,
This coin can be pulled from $0.27 to $1.4 by the dog dealer.
The strength of the dog dealer is still strong.
At present, the callback is in place, and it is still easy to return to more than $1.

We have previously analyzed that USDT will rise, due to:
1. The strong momentum of the US economy
2. President-elect Trump's threat of severe tariffs
The US dollar index has risen to 108,
and is heading for its best annual performance in nearly a decade
But things will turn around, and the US dollar may pull back next week
The US dollar will fall, which is conducive to BTC's rise
Therefore, our predictions for the market are as follows:
BTC may fall back to $93,000
It will fluctuate in the first few days of next week, and wait for the US stock market to stabilize
After ETF funds continue to flow in, BTC will return to the $100,000 mark
The cottage will follow, and more cottages will rise by more than 20%.

12.26 Precise Market Analysis:

BTC is once again challenging the 100,000 mark,
currently altcoins have not followed, and market funds are insufficient.

Let us look forward to the big market, does BTC have support,
can it break through the previous high?

Yesterday, the Russian finance minister said that Russia is using Bitcoin for international trade,
this is a result of legislative changes allowing such use to cope with Western sanctions.
He believes that cryptocurrencies have unique advantages in mitigating risks associated with sanctions, inflation, and currency fluctuations.

This year, Russia has allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade,
and has taken measures to legalize cryptocurrency mining.

Recently, BTC has been rising strongly,
it may be related to countries like Russia and Iran being sanctioned by the US secretly purchasing BTC.
Whether the Chinese government is secretly buying is unknown,
but currently, there is solid evidence for Russia.

As the date for Trump's return to power approaches,
some states in the US have begun to test the waters early:
attempting to include BTC in the state treasury's strategic reserves.

In the days BTC has fallen,
on December 17, Ohio proposed a bill,
to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the state.

Texas proposed a bill in December
to establish a Bitcoin reserve.

In November, Pennsylvania
proposed to use 10% of the state’s general fund
to purchase nearly $1 billion worth of Bitcoin.

By 2025, at least one US state is estimated to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
Cities outside the US, such as Vancouver, may also establish Bitcoin reserves.

These are all factors driving BTC up.
BTC is strong, and altcoins benefit from it.
Therefore, there is still play in the crypto circle.

12.25 Accurate Market Analysis:

Merry Christmas everyone!
Yesterday, the market surged from $92000 to $98000 in one breath,
catching the bears off guard.
After a 3-day decline, it recovered in just one day, and the momentum is still decent.

There was a news report yesterday stating that 15,000 BTC flowed into the exchange, which might indicate a market dump!
I checked the on-chain data:
This 15,000 BTC is indeed the case, mainly flowing into Bithumb exchange.
Looking at Bithumb's previous BTC reserve records, similar situations occur frequently.
So it should be attributed to the exchange organizing cold wallets,
which is nothing to worry about; it won't be a market dump.

From yesterday to today, Binance saw an inflow of about 1,000 BTC, which is not much, and stablecoins are still experiencing slight outflows.

Generally speaking, the second half of December is often a period of strong performance for U.S. stocks.
Due to Christmas, U.S. stocks will close early at 1 PM local time on Tuesday,
and will reopen on Thursday, with New Year's Day also being a holiday.
Trading activity during holiday periods is often relatively sluggish,
so after the Christmas holiday ends, BTC is likely to return to the high point of 100,000.

Be patient with your holdings; during this period, both long and short positions are prone to liquidation.
Focus on holding spot.

12.17 Accurate Market Analysis:

BTC Breaks New High, but Altcoins Struggle
What’s next, how should we position ourselves?

From yesterday to today, looking at on-chain data,
BTC has flowed out 10,000 from exchanges, with over 5,000 flowing out from Binance.
Large funds have been accumulating BTC!

Although we have been urging everyone to buy BTC for the past six months,
some brothers still haven't bought it.
Every time BTC rises, they sigh deeply, which is quite amusing.
But buying BTC can be done in 10 seconds, yet they still refuse to take action,
which is quite lamentable.

Last week, Trump said, "We will do some great things in the cryptocurrency space."
In response to whether the U.S. would establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve similar to the oil reserve,
Trump said, "Yes, I think so."

For BTC to become a U.S. strategic reserve, it must pass through Congress, which may not happen,
but the crux of the matter is not whether BTC can truly be established as a strategic reserve,
but that the expectation alone is enough.

Our judgment on the market is as follows:
(1) BTC continues to break through and rise, altcoins dare not move,
after this round of large-scale accumulation, BTC may challenge $127,000.
(2) ETH follows BTC's rise, altcoins begin to show interest.
(3) If BTC stalls and goes sideways, altcoins will start to rise.

Strategy: Buy 20% BTC, 20% ETH, and the rest in altcoins.
ETH breaking $4,700 is not a problem.
BNB breaking $850 is not a problem.

12.12 Accurate Market Analysis @Everyone

Yesterday, the US CPI was released, and it met expectations!
The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December has increased.

Currently, from on-chain data, the outlook is positive:
1. BTC continues to flow out of exchanges.
2. Stablecoins continue to flow into exchanges.

After this round of a massive drop with 500,000 people liquidated,
the market has regained vitality.

A few days ago, the Iranian-supported Syrian government fell, deepening Iran's worries about the future.
Yesterday, news emerged that the Iranian government plans to embrace cryptocurrency through regulation.
Not just the US, but from Russia to Iran,
increasingly more countries sanctioned by the US are beginning to rethink the value of crypto (resisting sanctions, creating jobs, integrating into global economic activities),
and are investing in crypto assets.

MicroStrategy announced on December 9,
the average purchase price was $98,783,
the overall holding cost has risen to $60,324.

Therefore, our analysis of the upcoming market is as follows:
1. As concluded yesterday, the bull is still here,
a sustained one-month trend is not an issue, but be cautious as we approach Trump's election on January 20.

2. Investment must include long-term positions that should not be moved; it is recommended to allocate 30% to long-term positions.
For long-term positions, it is recommended to hold BTC, BNB, ETH, Uni.

12.11 Accurate Market Analysis:

Yesterday, 500,000 people were liquidated, it was truly devastating.
Some of the contract trading groups we know have been completely wiped out.
Fortunately, we advised everyone to reduce their positions in advance, avoiding a major disaster.

In a bull market, why are some people still losing money? Because of greed and reckless contract trading.
Whatever you earn will eventually return to zero.

Yesterday's analysis reminded everyone that BTC retraced to $94,000 for a bottom buy.
Once again it hit the mark.
Now it has rebounded to $97,000.

Many friends are asking, is the bull market over?
Whether it is over or not cannot be guessed randomly.
Our approach is to combine macro and on-chain data to make rational analyses.

From the on-chain data, in the past two days during the decline,
BTC has continued to flow out of exchanges.
Among them, Binance's BTC did not show significant growth, remaining roughly the same as a few days ago.
Stablecoins have seen a certain increase.

On the 9th and 10th, there was no significant outflow from the ETFs.

Therefore, our forecast for the market is as follows:
(1) The bull market is not over yet; currently, the bull is grazing but is approaching the end of its grazing period, as the benefits of Trump's election are gradually being realized.
(2) In the next few days, the market will be volatile for a while, and then it will attack and rebound.
(3) BTC will need to continue to correct down after rebounding to $100,000, as there is significant resistance above.
(4) BTC will break through $110,000 before Trump's inauguration speech on January 20.

12.7 Accurate market analysis:

ETH breaks through $4000 again.

Let's start with the data and look at the current situation!

The total market value of stablecoins rose by 0.7% from the previous day, indicating that the market continues to rush and continue to work.
The balance of Bitcoin on the exchange fell by 0.3% from the previous day, indicating that big capital is still buying BTC at the bottom.

US BTC ETF: Net inflow of 767 million US dollars

US ETH ETF: Net inflow of 428 million US dollars, reaching the highest net inflow in history!

With 400 million US dollars coming in a day, it's no wonder that ETH is taking off!

Now this bull market is no longer driven by the old leeks in the currency circle,
but by traditional funds outside the currency circle, which is significantly different from previous years.

Two new listed companies in the United States have purchased BTC:
Marathon Digital has purchased 1,423 BTC again in the past 6 hours
The US medical company Semler Scientific also spent 29.3 million US dollars to continue purchasing.

The mayor of Vancouver proposed to include Bitcoin in municipal finance.

The Financial Times of the UK, which has long been critical of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as a whole, began to publish articles yesterday to apologize for being too biased.

On the other hand, mainland media such as Caixin continued to criticize cryptocurrencies after BTC broke through $100,000.

In a bull market, as long as you don’t short and don’t do contracts aggressively, you will make money.
There is one last step: you must escape the top and stop profit in time!

Coins that can still be bought now: SHIB, STX.

12.6 Precise Market Analysis:

Yesterday, BTC briefly spiked to $90,000,
but altcoins did not follow, indicating calmness!

With BTC breaking 100,000 yesterday, large funds have begun to position for put options
in the $75,000 to $70,000 range, with increases concentrated
at the end of December and the end of January next year, with some extending to the end of February next year.

Tonight, important non-farm payroll data will be released, right at 9:30 PM.
If it exceeds expectations, it will be bearish for the crypto market.
Will the Federal Reserve be able to obtain the first piece of the puzzle to pause interest rate cuts?

Another key date is December 11.
Microsoft shareholders will vote on whether to buy Bitcoin.
Although the CEO of MicroStrategy preached about it a few days ago,
the current board has recommended shareholders vote against it.
The probability of passing is low, but if it does pass, BTC could rise to $110,000.

From on-chain data, stablecoin inflow is observed, while BTC continues to flow out.
Currently, the risk is not too high.
In fact, during this period, we recommend not being greedy.
Take profits in batches; the profits should either not be used to buy BTC or be kept idle and not touched.
Absolutely do not take profits and then chase after the 10x coins your friends tell you about.

Currently, many altcoins have surged, and there are not many coins that can be boldly bought.
STX, BNB, and ETH should be held patiently, and take profits in a timely manner.

12.1 Precise Market Analysis:

In November 2024, amidst the skepticism of the majority, the bull market began.
Will the bull market continue in December?

In the past few days, during the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., the main players were off celebrating, so logically, market funds were not abundant.
Yet despite this, BTC did not drop, and ETH rose a little.
The S&P 500 index in the U.S. reached a new high, closing strongly.

Previously, Trump's family launched a cryptocurrency project called WLFI, raising funds through USDC.
Yesterday, something happened: Trump's family converted all the USDC received from WLFI into CBBTC and ETH.
What does this indicate?
It indicates that the first family, who holds the most insider information, is optimistic about the prospects of BTC and ETH and feels they are going to rise.
So as ordinary people,
Should we believe the heavily indebted but stubborn short-selling analysts,
or should we trust the first family of the United States?

In terms of on-chain data, Binance continued to see a net outflow of BTC yesterday, exceeding 3,000.

In terms of geopolitical events, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire.

Therefore, I believe that before the end of December, the cryptocurrency market will see another surge.
However, before Christmas at the end of December, there may be a significant correction.

Because
(1) The positive effects of Trump's election have been released for a period and cannot continue indefinitely.
(2) There are too many profits in the cryptocurrency market; currently, over 80% of BTC holders are in profit, and by the end of December, many altcoins will have doubled.
(3) On a macro level, in recent months, with a series of strong economic data, the Federal Reserve's willingness to cut interest rates has decreased.
Next Friday, non-farm payroll data will be released; if it exceeds expectations, it will be bearish.
Although the cryptocurrency market currently has support from U.S. policy, the fundamental factor depends on the Federal Reserve's policy, as it determines the amount of market funds.

While the bull market is good, we must remain vigilant;
There is no market that only goes up without down; we should not be overly optimistic.
Taking profits from surging coins in a timely manner and converting them into stablecoins to keep is the right approach.
As we approach the end of December, we should plan for profit-taking and be ready to buy on dips.