0x桐灿

The yellow line is the EMA365, and the white line is the MA365.
【Figure 1】 shows that after $BTC started in the previous bull market (the second-to-last one), on April 23, 2019, it hit resistance and pulled back at the MA365 moving average and at the second-layer resistance level. After a brief strong rebound (HH, HL), it immediately broke through.
【Figure 2】 shows that after $BTC started in the previous bull market, on February 21, 2023, it met resistance at the junction of EMA365 and MA365 and at the second-layer resistance level, then pulled back to the first-layer resistance zone. After it turned into a support zone, it continued moving straight north.
【Figure 3】 shows that today, on September 4, 2026, as in 2019, $BTC has already broken above the EMA365, and it is about to—possibly—pull back to meet resistance at the MA365 moving average and at the second-layer resistance level.

Are you going to take this short, or not? Should you focus your attention on this opportunity to short, or should you stand firm and hold for the next leg up?
If a pullback happens here as expected, can you exit the short position cleanly, decisively, and on time for take-profit, then quickly switch your mindset from short to long, catch the low point of the pullback, and add to spot positions on the reverse, or open a long? Also, how do you judge whether: here will—just like in the prior 2023 cycle—produce a deeper pullback, forming a small timeframe LL, with enough time to take profit on the short;
or whether this time is only a shallow pullback, just like in 2019. You might still be greedy about the short profit, not having taken profit on the short in time, and not having added to spot in time—perhaps even still adding to the short position. As a result, a new trend continuation starts suddenly, and BTC keeps marching north all the way?

$MSTR is about to hit another new high. If it breaks again, the next resistance level will be around 200.

USDT.D is about to break below the 200-day EMA on the 3-day chart. If it breaks, the next resistance is around 6%, roughly $BTC 9.7 million. That would be a smooth one-way trend—possibly even directly pushing toward the previous high near 120,000.

All of our “market predictions and judgments” actually come from “historical candlesticks.” But what people can truly learn from the “history” is only “human nature”—its weaknesses, and its brilliance.
What we can never learn is precisely the “trajectory” that we always think we can learn. Predicting the future using “historical candlesticks” is like building a “palace in the sky.” If you copy it correctly, it becomes a temple admired by everyone; if you copy it wrong, it collapses into nothing.

The most important lesson I’ve learned from history is this: follow a blurry direction, but never try to predict the future’s 【price trajectory】 using your personal ability. For example, you must not, just because my position hasn’t been fully filled, become stubborn and insist there must be another big pullback. Then you would short first and wait for the perfect moment to go all-in at the bottom of the 【golden pit】—that kind of “perfect” operation that is close to “self-delusion.”

My 50% BTC spot DCA, and the subsequent addition of a 30% MSTR spot position plus a 1x leveraged long position, will make no swing trades. The remaining 20% of “ammunition” will only be added during pullbacks. If there is no pullback, then we’ll just let it unfold naturally. The leveraged longs will only be rolled upward in line with the trend.

Just like none of us can predict whether this cycle of $BTC will start early. Likewise, we still cannot predict whether BTC this cycle will produce a smooth one-way trend that nobody could have anticipated.

—For reference.

The logic for adding positions and chasing to $MSTR is very simple.
On August 21, MSTR’s daily line ($BTC ) had already stabilized above the EMA200. The rise from the bottom of 58,000 to 78,000 at that time was a 35% gain, while back then the EMA200 for $MSTR still couldn’t even be touched from below. The move from 82 to 112 was a 36% gain. Normally, MSTR’s volatility should be at least 1.5 to 2 times that of BTC, yet at that time the volatility of both sides was almost identical.

During a pullback, MSTR’s volatility would naturally be amplified as well, but most likely it needed to first catch up on the volatility gap. And at that time, 112 was the price where the volatilities of the two sides were nearly in sync—so the safety risk of chasing into MSTR here was very low. Today, the volatilities of both sides have finally started to return to a normal ratio.

Since MSTR is a US stock, in the subsequent uptrend of the larger cycle it may also move more smoothly than BTC, and be easier to form the standard pattern of “higher and higher lows.” After confirming the bottom and the low point, it is more suitable for riding the trend and rolling over with lower leverage.

—The above is for reference.

$MSTR has started to catch up on gains. This round began DCA around $BTC 6 million, buying only 50% of the position. On August 21, I decided to add in and follow with 30% of the spot position into $MSTR , and at the same time opened a low-leverage long-term position in the futures account.

BTC rose from 78,000 on the 21st to around 80,000, a 3% increase. MSTR has started to catch up on gains today, and its increase has already reached 20 points.

Stage 1: $BTC phase topping and oscillation phase. I tend to wait for a pullback and then look for a long position. If after a strong sideways consolidation the price continues to break out, then enter long following the breakout.
— For reference.

Counterfeit #OTHERS today saw a collective needle-stick; those with strong rebounds can still move along, while the weaker ones have already had their structure broken.

These are experience and intuition learned from losing money back in the days of running counterfeits: the more you make, the more you run—not the more you make, the more greedy you get. When an uptrend comes in fiercely, the first thing to think about is the risk of 【profit giving back and a sudden end】.

When facing the market, think contrarily: go long at lows, short at highs. When facing both your account’s profits and your inner emotions, you should also apply contrarian thinking…
When you’re overwhelmed with joy, the first thing that flashes in your mind is: “Beware and fear.”

Over the next week or two, I will comprehensively short counterfeit coins. All profits obtained will be used entirely to place 【long-term buy orders】 for $BTC and $MSTR .

All it takes for $BTC is a 10% drop, and the counterfeit coins will collapse completely.

Counterfeit coins need to form a bottom through 【a wide time span + wide price swings】 oscillation. The market is currently in the phase of a bull market—bear market—【wide-range consolidation】. In this phase is the golden time to trade counterfeit coins with the strategy of 【go long low and short high】.

On August 1st, I publicly buried positions in some counterfeit coins; they have already entered the middle-to-late stage of a surge. Today, I’m again publicly disclosing my plans to place short orders.

Everything is for the 【ultimate BTC celebration】.

—For reference.

$BTC

$DOGE and $DASH were positioned secretly at the beginning of August; start taking profits in batches. The final target and the pressure level are both at the 0.382 position—reference only.

$BTC multiple entries closed/triggered, for reference.

$GOOGL Last week’s long-term short position opened, attempting to hold around 280;
$SOXL The short position I just chased today—add to the position after a small-level rebound, aiming for around 70.
——For reference

$BTC try one more hand

I love the Kongshan Zhai so much that even after hitting a daily-level pressure point and closing the position, just go look for a rebound entry on the smaller timeframes on the right side to go short…… $BICO $MUBARAK

More than half a year, 24x. I didn’t do well—full of ups and downs—and I also experienced a major drawdown. At the beginning of the year, I thought I had “enlightened myself.” Looking back now, I realize that at that time, my “enlightenment” was technically only half-understood, and my mindset was even farther away by a long, long way. But thankfully, I’m still continuing…

I have some dreams about trading. I don’t know whether I can truly realize them in the end or what I’ll leave behind… but I’m also seriously putting my trading system into practice.

What succeeds is made in secret; what is spoken can lead to failure. When it’s 500x or more, it may be made public. If it hasn’t been made public, then it’s zeroed out…

BES hasn't had much volatility recently. The U.S. stock targets they're holding are long shorts. Lately, it's mostly just doing knockoffs $COTI

$AAVE 📉
$DASH $DOGE 等待💹
📈

$HYPE I've wanted to short for a long time, but this coin is too strong. Following the trading principle of not being weak, not shorting in strength, and not getting too close to the top, I've been waiting for the big trend to turn bearish. Next, keep tracking and wait for a pullback opportunity to enter.

Some orders I posted on Twitter and in small groups in the past month are still being held and have been taking profit in batches. $ZEC $TSLA $META $CFG

Some recent takeaways: The further into trading you go, the more you realize the importance of “cultivating your mind.” As your mindset becomes calmer and calmer, positions you used to be unable to hold will slowly become holdable.

The larger the trading cycle becomes, the higher the requirement for the risk-reward ratio; the fewer the number of trades, because you truly learn to filter and you learn to wait.

A thousand-foot sheer cliff—no desire makes one strong; labor at the cause, and let fate follow at the result. Define the position based on loss, set a proper stop-loss, plan the take-profit—everything else will naturally take its course.

About $BTC Spot Buying the Dip
Personally, I started my official DCA plan when it was around the 60,000 level. The overall strategy is to allocate 70% of the funds for DCA over a period of six months. The remaining 30% is set aside, waiting for a 【golden pit】 to appear, at which point I will make a one-time purchase.

Regarding my expectations for the 【golden pit】, personally I will look at the following three indicators in the chart aligning and resonating at the same time:
1. The Fibonacci 707—786 range
2. The candlesticks reaching the blue moving average
3. The indicator at the bottom of the chart showing a blue pit position

If, during this bear-market cycle, no golden pit appears, then this remaining 30% of funds will be used for a one-time buy when the right-side signal shows up.

In terms of the time cycle, personally I believe that $BTC still needs some time before it truly bottoms out in this bear-market cycle. The current U.S. stock market index has only just started to pull back. I am more inclined to wait until the 【S&P 500】 retraces to around the white long-term moving average, and then observe the situation of $BTC at that time.

—That’s all for reference.

During the Chinese New Year and Spring Festival, I suggest telling the friends around you: after the holiday is over, if you have positions in the A-share market, it’s best to start taking profits and exiting. The Shanghai Composite Index has been suppressed along the upper edge of a triangular major volatility cycle that has lasted nearly 20 years. It’s better to wait until a confirmed breakout holds steady before buying back, and there’s absolutely no need to gamble on a one-time breakout right here.

People always try to earn the last copper penny from the market, but seasoned investors and traders typically begin exiting in batches from the left side at stage highs. Exiting with right-side take-profit via stop-loss sounds easy; however, when profits fall back significantly, most people can’t tolerate the psychological pain of realizing losses from that drawdown, so they delay leaving for a long time. “Maybe it’s just a short pullback.” “I’ll wait for a rebound and then go.” Such delusions and fantasies develop little by little.

This latest V-shaped new high in the U.S. stock market since April 2026 has been driven by AI, semiconductors, and technology stocks. Last month, $SPCX completed what was the largest-scale IPO in human history. In practice, this also means it marks the high point of the sentiment cycle, and market liquidity will inevitably be withdrawn—this is the final departure signal being sent out.

The U.S. semiconductor ETF—$SOXL clearly showed a topping pattern at the beginning of July: 【rising wedge + head-and-shoulders top】. It’s also certain that China’s A-share semiconductor sector will top out as well.

The reason for shorting $TSLA is that Musk has spent the past half year focusing on other companies, and there have also been consecutive mistakes in recent operational decisions for TSLA. Market demand for Cybercab and Cybertruck has been far below expectations, and a clear top-to-pullback formation is also evident. In the short term, expect a pullback; in the long term, I remain 【bullish】.

For the past two months, I’ve been half resting and half learning about the U.S. stock market. After this, I’ll share some of my experiences and thoughts with everyone.