一哥交易经

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一哥交易经

价格行为交易员. 除周六外,每晚8点30直播,9点复盘行情并分享日内/波段/中长线主流价值币交易机会. 交易手续费立省20%邀请码：ONE666 公众号:一哥交易经 X:0xOnebit

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一哥交易经

Ranked, thank you!

一哥交易经

Just finished the broadcast, feeling a bit confused.
Thank you for the official support!

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一哥交易经

$SNDK
In the US stock after-hours session, this particular stock—meaning 1733—however, in the futures market it's 1775. This indicates that in the futures market, some big players have already been liquidated. The sharp drop in open positions over a short period also confirms this claim.

Since last week, the funding fee has shown a clear negative premium. And the price hasn’t fallen noticeably, especially after the upcoming investors’ positive developments are realized.
So in the short term, this is clearly a short squeeze. The question is: when will it stop?
With no major changes in fundamentals, it depends on when the big bear shorting the US stocks—i.e., Michael Burry—will surrender, although he is shorting Micron.
The three major players in Hai Dali’s lineup are moving basically in sync. And after the Korean market and KOSPI, jointly with the Korea-US efforts to support the market, the rebound has recently turned strong.

In the short term, the trend is starting to gradually move out of the 123 reversal. For all subsequent pullbacks, 1400–1500 is an important support/resistance level. Especially for the short positions that were trapped earlier—most of them will choose to close and exit here. Secondly, long positions looking to get in during a waiting opportunity will also choose to lay in positions here. The combination of the two further strengthens the buying power in this area.
#SNDK分析

SNDK+4.32%

一哥交易经

🎙️ 0814 Strong coin, weak market: stick to the position or shift the battlefield? — Market Scan Recap & Trading Plan [BTC/ETH/SOL]

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260814 Daily Market Outlook Analysis - Stocks Rise, Crypto Crashes

First, let’s talk about US stocks. The S&P 7,800 has been touched. Individual stocks, especially AI and storage, have once again kicked off a rally.
Especially the storage “Three Dummies” [Hai Dalì]. SanDisk announced to investors on the day about its investment returns for the next two years being 100% returned to shareholders.
Bullish expectations instantly boosted the market value of storage “Three Dummies.”
Before that, I didn’t know whether anyone had noticed that the fundamentals PPI data suddenly came in “cold” again—below expectations. It suggests that inflation seems to be under control, and that it’s starting to cool down (personally I’m doubtful).
Second, there was also that surprise “cold” in the prior Nonfarm Payrolls and Initial Jobless Claims data. Employment is starting to weaken. This is a piece of news that undermines expectations for further rate hikes.

🎙️ 0813 No bullish logic, waiting for new lows. --- Market scan recap & trading plan [BTC/ETH/SOL]

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🎙️ 0812 CPI后往哪看? ---Market scan recap & trading plan [BTC/ETH/SOL]

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一哥交易经

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260812 Daily Market Analysis - CPI Throws a Curveball

Before the CPI data, the US stock market has still been holding at high levels with a narrow-range consolidation these past few days. There isn’t much short-term volatility as it waits for the CPI data to provide direction.
On the other hand, gold remains in a long position today. Overall it is still relatively strong, and gold’s initial upswing occurred relatively early. In the short term, the CPI data is unlikely to easily affect the continuation of the bullish trend.
$BTC
The crypto sector has been continuously weak lately. After completing two rounds of small selloffs over the past two days, the short positions previously held have been reduced.
After breaking below the 638 area and retesting to around 633, an oversold rebound begins today. Before the CPI data, it starts to rebound as well; typically it ends in the form of price poking up and down with wicks.

🎙️ 0811 Can’t rise, can’t fall, what is the market waiting for?—Market scan recap & trading plan [BTC/ETH/SOL]

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260811 Daily Market Analysis

Last night, U.S. stocks remained strong, and stocks and crypto again staged a sharp divergence—stocks rose while crypto fell.
In the short term, price performance and market capital flows are still continuously flowing back into the U.S. stock market. This can be clearly seen as well from the ETF inflow/outflow data mentioned earlier.
The most important CPI data this week will be released tomorrow. July’s CPI was the month when oil prices rebounded sharply. Recent employment data shows a slowdown in the pace of growth; if tomorrow’s CPI data comes in clearly above expectations, then for the market in the short term it is undoubtedly a major negative. Especially given that the Fed is currently operating in the context of [protecting jobs] and [fighting inflation].

🎙️ 0810 Sideways Consolidation Holding Back a Big Move --- Market Scan Recap & Trading Plan [BTC/ETH/SOL]

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260810 Daily Market Briefing Analysis - Breakthrough Forever? X?

From late June to July, selling pressure on crypto ETFs continued to ease, with inflows starting to pick up gradually.
Last Friday’s major non-farm payrolls once again came as a surprise—gold continued last week’s uptrend.
This surprise employment data almost put out expectations for rate hikes in September, and even for the rest of the year. And as the Fed talks tough while still not daring to actually press the rate-hike button, you hear the “wolf is coming” story so many times that the market has started to reprice the Fed’s credibility again.
In other words, the market is betting that there are no bullets in your gun—that the U.S. Federal Reserve would never dare to raise rates.

🎙️ 0807 S&P 7 thousand 8, understands Wang laughing ha-ha—market scan recap & trading plan [BTC/ETH/SOL]

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一哥交易经

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260807 Daily Market Briefing - Big NFP

Pre-market U.S. stocks are still relatively strong. During the day, gold continues the bullish run from the past few days. At 8:30 PM, the Non-Farm Payrolls (big NFP) data will be released.
After the interest-rate decision meeting, the U.S. dollar index began to weaken. Gold finally completes the upside breakout, and oil prices fall in line with the impact of geopolitical news.
So can the bullish leg driven by precious metals also lift the “big pie” along with it?
$BTC
Recently, the “big pie” has had relatively small intraday volatility. On the 4H timeframe, it’s maintaining a gradual stair-step uptrend, which raises some suspicion of a potential baiting move. For those chasing a breakout, please be quick and diligent with taking profit—especially since, with the news environment as it is right now.
In the evening, watch for rebound pressure around the 655 area above. A pull-up on reduced volume on a small timeframe is usually not a good sign.

🎙️ 0806 US stock 【财爆寄】---- Market scan recap & trading plan [BTC/ETH/SOL]

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一哥交易经

🎙️ 0805 US stocks strong, crypto weak, extreme divergence—Which side to choose?----Market scan review & trading plan [BTC/ETH/SOL]

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一哥交易经

🎙️ 0804 US stocks hit new highs, but can't lift the big market----market scan recap & trading plan [BTC/ETH/SOL]

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260804 Daily Market Analysis

The US dollar index has been continuously weakening since last week. Gold has not followed through with an upward move. Oil has started to gradually pull back after “TACO” by Trump.
On the surface, the situation seems more positive than negative—so why does Bitcoin do a catch-up rally while the US stocks keep climbing rapidly?
After the US stock market opened on Monday, it surged with a large gap up and kept rising. Ahead of the close, it is now nearing the previous high around 7630—indeed quite strong.
$BTC
After revisiting the 624 area again, it started to rebound. However, the performance in crypto isn’t as strong as the US stock market—the rebound strength is average. Then, pull back again to the 638 area to test the resistance.
Structurally, the market still maintains a retest after the channel breaks down, so the risk-reward ratio for chasing on a smaller timeframe is quite small. The 646 resistance level above is relatively close. After observing the price’s weak performance in this area and then breaking out, the risk-reward ratio for setting up a short position by lying in wait behind the resistance is a bit higher.

$SPCX
The first trillion-dollar commercial aerospace IPO, a bottomless pit of cash burn.
On Tuesday after the U.S. market closes, the first batch of earnings results will be released.
Net profit is expected to be a loss; how much the loss is doesn’t matter.
The underlying computing-power company is quietly “backstopping” and starting to recover.
What matters is the narrative of the Starship migration—given the current market backdrop, how many people will be willing to foot the bill.
#spcx