Recession, or soft landing? (one)
Yesterday, the retail sales data of the United States were really impressive. The economy is not convinced. In the blink of an eye, we, a big country in the East, have such data. They still do not recognize deflation, and they stopped publishing youth employment data. Today they have stopped A-share financing. Real estate has bad debts, foreign trade is in a mess, and loans have dropped sharply. Just imagine what would happen if we raised interest rates to 5.5%, America is still awesome!
Back to business:
Is a recession necessary for the Fed to cut interest rates?
As economists and markets lower expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, investor focus is turning to the timing and drivers of possible rate cuts.
Bank of America expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of 2024, which is less than half the rate cut it expected in May. This would constitute the slowest rate-cutting cycle on record, although such cycles have already occurred six times in the past 40 years.
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#A9社区 Trend Trading Team
