The Federal Reserve will continue to maintain high interest rates throughout 2023, and it is still unknown when BlackRock's application for a Bitcoin ETF will be approved, so this bullish enthusiasm quickly returned to rationality. In addition, the global economic situation is still very bad, and everyone is barely holding on, so everyone's investment sentiment has returned to a cautious attitude.
Driven by the potential benefits of Bitcoin spot ETF, BTC quickly rose to around $30,000, and then experienced two weeks of volatility, failing to break through the previous high. Before the ETF gets an official response, the market will not end, Bitcoin will fluctuate and rise, and popular altcoins will also have opportunities to perform. Regulatory risks may still come back, and the market outlook is cautiously optimistic.
In the overall correction in June, USDT de-anchoring confirmed the short-term bottom of BTC, and the chips were changed hands during the decline, laying the foundation for a new round of rise. Old Wall Street institutions such as Blackrock applied for Bitcoin spot ETFs, which pushed the market to rise rapidly. BTC returned to the previous high and is expected to fluctuate upward in the next month. The leading altcoin BCH rose by more than 200% in two weeks. The market risk appetite has rebounded, and popular altcoins will have performance opportunities.
Why does the main force need to wash the market before pushing up the price?
1: The main force will definitely clean up the loose chips before pulling up. What are loose chips? For example, those speculators who want to make a little short-term effect and ride on the main force, the main force will definitely clean up these uncertain factors, so the main force will definitely clean up the market.
2: Similarly, the main force is very painful in the process of washing the market. The upper and lower needles are always oscillating. The first thing to be eaten is the futures, and the second thing to be eaten is the spot. In the process of washing the market, people who are impatient and speculators must be the first to get off.
3: How to judge whether the main force has finished washing the market? What will you find?
First, the trading volume is small. Second, the market is not active. Third, the market is very stable at this position after the wash. Then one day, a good news comes out and the whole market becomes active again. Basically, it is daily limit, daily limit and then daily limit, and quickly leaves the cost area.
4: The essence of the capital market is that it will not change in 10, 20 or 30 years. How do you discover the market cleansing action?
Then let me tell you again, first: the existing stable trading volume has no trading volume, and suddenly the trading volume surges. Second, there is a sudden large fluctuation. The upper line fluctuates in a region, which is particularly active. Third: During the period of ups and downs in this region, the position is constantly rising. This is an obvious feature. As the low point rises and the trading volume decreases, it is estimated that the top is about to be formed again.
And retail investors should make money in this market
Long-term fixed investment is king! This stage is the "narrative exhaustion period". This stage appears in every bull and bear cycle. The cryptocurrency circle has encountered the same problem in the past. The importance of reviewing history comes here.
Those who should buy and buy at the bottom have already bought, and those who were prepared to wait and see are still waiting and watching, thus forming a fragile balance. The macroeconomic impact on the overall risk market is not significant at present. CPI, PPI, and unemployment benefits applications are all based on whether the Fed will raise interest rates in July. Although many friends believe that the Fed will raise interest rates 100%, the market has also expected the Fed's rate hike, so even if there is a real rate hike, the market reaction will not be very big. But in fact, the game has already begun since Powell announced in June that it would be a pause rather than a skip. So the best solution now is to wait and gradually enter the market when the market falls, and position control needs to be very cautious.
More funds are in BTC and ETH. Although the room for growth is limited, it will only triple to $100,000, but it will be relatively stable and suitable for larger funds to get the safest returns.
The next 30% is used to allocate the leaders of each sector
The last 10% is actually used for "gambling", mainly to buy some potential track heads, which are the so-called 100-fold potential
In a bear market, you must first consider how to survive so that you can live better in a bull market. If you can’t survive a bear market, then it doesn’t matter how much the bull market rises.
Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin over the past 18 months, which is typical of market cycles. Of the 10 projects I shared, only Pendle has outperformed BTC this year.
Therefore, until we see BTC dominance peak, altcoins remain risky.
But this is not always the case, and we may once again see another type of project rise in the future, and it will be very large.
Therefore, now is the best time to decide on your buying list and get ready for the next bull run.
Key things to note:
• Bitcoin’s dominance
• Performance of the top three tokens by market capitalization
• Macro factors
I am currently investing in only a few of these projects, and if there is a major correction in the second half of the year, I may increase my spot positions in these projects.
Fantom $FTM
Bullish factors:
• Strong technology and team
• Huge potential in the track and sufficient capital reserves
• $FTM as GAS, compatible with Solidity’s virtual machine FVM
Risks/Bearish:
• Competition from L1/L2
• AC leaves Fantom again
Overall, I like FTM and think the bullish factors may outweigh the bearish ones.
Chainlink $LINK
Bullish factors:
• Owning the status of industry standard oracle
• $Link has a staking requirement
• The launch of Chainlink Token Economics 2.0
Risks/Bearish:
• Token Economics 2.0 and Value Capture Implementation
• Selling pressure from the team
Link has not been doing well in recent years, but I think this situation will be reversed one day.
$GMX
Bullish factors:
• The agreement has income
• The sustainable DEX track is growing
• Provide users with real and reliable benefits
Risks/Bearish:
• intense market competition
• Long-term bear market
GMX has been one of the best performing tokens in the bear market.
Polygon $MATIC
Bullish factors:
• Launch of zkEVM
• Large institutional support
• Many partners
Risks/Bearish:
• The current market value is already very large
• There are regulatory risks
Polygon has the potential to be like the Google of the crypto world, with ample funding, massive adoption, and institutional backing.
Gains network $GNS Bullish Factors:
• Launch of zkEVM
• Large institutional support
• Many partners
Risks/Bearish:
• The current market value is already very large
• There are regulatory risks
Polygon has the potential to be like the Google of the crypto world, with ample funding, massive adoption, and institutional backing.
Gains network $GNS
Bullish factors:
• High income and good token economy
• Perpetual Contract Dex Narrative
• Provide real and reliable benefits
Risks/Bearish:
• Fierce competition
• A saturated market
Overall, I am very bullish on GNS. Decentralized exchanges will only become more popular as the user experience improves.
Decision $ARB
Bullish factors:
• Ethereum Layer 2 Faucet
• Stylus upgrade (will make Arbitrum more scalable)
• Expected increase in crypto adoption in the future
Risks/Bearish:
• Competition from ZK family
• Unlocking of future tokens
ARB is one of the most watched projects this year, and the airdrop hype is over, but it still has great long-term potential.
Radiant $RDNT
Bullish factors:
• Full-chain lending
• High income
• ARB Ecosystem
Risks/Bearish:
• Token unlocking selling pressure
• Many competitors
Radiant is very interesting to me, I really like the narrative of Omnichain and LayerZero, and I also think there is huge potential in the lending space.
$GHOST
Bullish factors:
• Launch of GHO stablecoin
• It is the leading project in the DeFi lending track
• Adequate treasury funds
Risks/Bearish:
• Regulatory risks
• Long-term bear market
AAVE is building some great products and has solid revenue, so I’m bullish on its future.
$PENDLE
Bullish factors:
• Innovative revenue tokenization protocol
• Large market share in LSDFi narratives
• Widely adopted
Risks/Bearish:
• Overhyped after listing on Binance
• Not a low market value project
Pendle has always been a popular project and was finally launched on Binance. I think it still has huge room for growth in the long run.
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.