The Federal Reserve has provided a large amount of liquidity to the market by lowering interest rates, fueling Bitcoin's surge again and again, while also accelerating our housing prices to the top of the mountain.

Now that the Fed’s expected rate cut has been delayed, investors also need to reassess risks. This article will answer two questions for you.

The first question: Why doesn’t the United States cut interest rates for the time being?

The second question: Will the big bulls in the cryptocurrency circle be delayed?

Let’s first take a look at the views of industry leaders on why the United States will not cut interest rates for the time being:

weak:

From the perspective of non-trading markets, it is not important whether the Fed cuts interest rates or not. The rise in gold and Bitcoin has shown that the world no longer trusts the US dollar. Startups and manufacturing companies in the United States are having a very difficult time. They cannot raise money, and all the money is used for stock speculation and bank deposits.

You only see the soaring stock prices of a few super large companies in the United States, but no one sees that the stock prices of most Nasdaq companies have been smashed to the bone in recent years. The Americans are really ruthless and would rather kill 10,000 of themselves than hurt 3,000 Chinese.

We talk about industrial chain transfer every day. It is impossible for a place with a deposit interest rate of 5.5% to have a manufacturing industry chain. It directly locks up social funds. In recent years, the US GDP has increased, but electricity consumption has continued to decline. This is the reason. To revitalize the manufacturing industry, the problem is that the development of the manufacturing industry requires a large amount of low-interest funds and loans. Except for a few extremely profitable industries, most manufacturing industries have very meager profits. How can there be a manufacturing industry in a place with a loan interest rate of 8%? What a joke.

ppdd:

The essence of Sino-US trade is that China exports deflation to the US, and the US exports inflation to China. In the past 30 years, China has produced more and more industrial products, but it does not have enough consumption power. It has been accumulating deflation risks. The US prints more and more money, but there are not enough corresponding goods.

Inflation risks have been accumulating, but this pair of crouching dragon and phoenix has exported inflation and deflation to each other through bilateral trade, and both have maintained a benign environment of slight inflation in the past two or three decades. Then, the trade war came.

China lost the world's largest consumer market, the United States, and its own production capacity could not digest it. The United States lost the world's largest industrial production capacity, China, and its own currency could not digest it. So everyone saw that on both sides of the Pacific, high blood sugar and low blood pressure were cursing at each other. On one side, they were desperately raising interest rates to control their own inflation. On the other side, they were desperately cutting interest rates to avoid falling into deflation.

shanbei:

In fact, the United States is almost unable to hold on, and several of its own banks have collapsed. But seeing that Chinese real estate stocks have fallen, it feels that it is doing well again and is standing firm again. It will continue to hold on...

As the financial war game reaches this point, all data indicators are no longer effective. If something goes wrong, we have to quickly replenish it, make repairs, and continue to fight. This kind of eagle-training style of play, once given up, means admitting defeat.

sloping:

It's not that we won't cut rates, it's just that the timing is not right and the strategic goal has not been achieved. Although China's real estate and stock markets are in a difficult situation, they have not exploded, and economies of a certain size have not exploded either. Cutting interest rates now is like throwing several pigs as bait. The prey ate the pigs, and not only escaped after getting slightly injured, but also rescued several small animals. What should we do?

If you were a hunter, would you be so angry that you would risk your life to get another wave? So for the time being, you can only hold on, otherwise you will starve to death without meat and become the prey. The Americans themselves want to reduce the price, and it was originally expected to be reduced around May.

The latest news is that it will be around July, and there will be too many times. It is expected to drop 2~3 times in 2024, and it will definitely not drop to around 2.5%, but to around 4.5%. Such a high interest rate is equivalent to the Fed subsidizing the market. They can't hold on for long, but compared with strategic determination, since the founding of our party, it seems that it has never failed. This time I stand for China, straighten my spine, hold on, and the dawn is just around the corner.

There is also great pressure on Biden and the United States to cut interest rates. If Biden wants to win re-election, he must push for interest rate cuts to improve the economy, especially to protect the U.S. stock market. At present, the U.S. stock index seems to have been setting new highs. In fact, it is mainly supported by the seven golden flowers of AI. However, except for Nvidia, the other six of the seven golden flowers seem to be about to wither. Even the Apple logo seems to have a bigger and bigger gap, and Buffett has already retreated.

"After a series of economic data were released this year, federal funds rate futures showed that investors have chosen to face reality and postponed the Fed's first rate cut from March to June or later, reducing the full-year rate cut space from 6 times at the beginning of the year to 3 times, which is similar to the Fed's forecast at the end of last year."

Recently, Bitcoin has also hit a new high, and gold has also followed suit and started to soar. What does this mean? Perhaps greater uncertainty is coming. If China's CPI target this year is to reach 3%, it is estimated that it will also rely on a huge amount of currency to drive it.

brave:

This is because the current US foreign policy has one obsession and two illusions:

An obsession means:

China is the only rival of the United States. The United States must kill China. The ultimate goal of all the foreign policies of the United States is to kill China. It is okay to have obsessions. China also has obsessions, such as the unification of Taiwan. However, the unification of Taiwan can be done at a reasonable time. There is no need to rush. We can make full arrangements and wait for the time to come.

But the United States is not like that. If it wants China to die, it will die immediately. If China does not respond after three attacks, it will feel strongly frustrated, and the government and the public will clamor for more aggressive policies, even if it kills 100 enemies and loses 10,000 of its own people.

China's calm and relaxed attitude under the US's various sieges has seriously upset the US elites, which is the root cause of their current hysteria. The US's current high interest rates, chip sieges, and the recent ban on WuXi AppTec are all illogical and funny in our eyes, but they are politically correct in the US.

America's first illusion was

The United States is stronger than China. This is the important logic that supports the current policies of the American elites. Therefore, the United States has the ability to teach China a lesson. The recent statement by Musk in the United States makes sense. China's strength is at least two or three times that of the United States. Ma has in-depth cooperation with China, has visited many places in China, and has communicated with many officials and businessmen. His views are much more profound than those so-called elites in the United States who hide in air-conditioned rooms and turn a deaf ear to the outside world.

My point is that two or three times refers only to the real GDP, and does not take into account the soft power of organizational mobilization, financial capacity, popular support, national identity, etc. China's actual strength has far surpassed that of the United States. That is why the United States always looks at China, while China's eyes are on the stars and the sea. The two countries are no longer on the same level.

America's second illusion is

The policies introduced by the United States can have a profound impact on the operation of China's economy. In fact, the sharp drop in China's housing and stock markets some time ago gave the United States an illusion that this sharp drop was the result of the United States' interest rate hike, so it stubbornly insisted on high interest rates and wanted to see the Chinese economy completely collapse and the people rise up.

As for some Zhihu users saying that Argentina and Egypt have exploded, please, the United States will spend 1.4 trillion in interest alone this year. Can selling small countries like Argentina, Egypt, and Sri Lanka fill this deficit?

All its targets are China, but unfortunately, the US raised interest rates and China lowered them, but the RMB exchange rate not only remained unchanged but also rose slightly. Now the housing market has also held up, and the stock market has rebounded. I believe that the shadow area in the Fed's heart has expanded sharply in the past month. But the more this happens, the more it cannot give up. Now the Sino-US financial war has become a battle of Shangganling. The US imperialist interest rate cut is surrender, and there is no other way except to hold on.

The second question: Will the big bulls in the cryptocurrency circle be delayed?

Judging from the development of Bitcoin and the crypto market itself, this round of halving has seen a major development in the entire market from quantity to quality.

Whether it is the prosperity of inscriptions, the gradual maturity of public chains, the internalization of AI tokens, or the current popularity of runes, it shows that the entire industry is in a high-growth stage. So can this high growth offset the negative impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike or delay in cutting interest rates?

In summary, whether the subsequent development speed and quality of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market itself can ultimately offset the negative impact of the interest rate hike policies of central banks represented by the Federal Reserve will be the key factor in whether the crypto market can continue its bull market or even a long bull market. After all, a good blacksmith must have strong tools.

As digital gold, Bitcoin will follow the gold bull market and the Fed's interest rate cuts, and will have more room for growth than gold. The four-year cycle remains unchanged, but if you say it will reach 150,000 or 200,000 US dollars by the end of the year, don't even think about it.

The expectation of interest rate cuts has not been met, and the cryptocurrency market cannot remain immune. Before the big bull market takes off, it must wash out most retail investors. Therefore, it is unlikely that there will be a big market in the next six months. Even if it follows the rules of the past, the big bull market will take off at the beginning of next year and last for the whole year of 2025.

However, if the United States continues to be so willful and insists on fighting China, maintaining high interest rates until 2025, it is very likely that this round of bull market will be delayed by several months compared with previous years.

Therefore, students should be vigilant. It is not suitable to fully invest at this stage. Most people in the currency circle ran out of money to add positions before the big bull came. Then, I was excited and started to take out loans, leverage, and contracts. In the end, I couldn’t keep calm, took risks, lost everything, and was eliminated.

Do you know what is fast in the investment market? -----No need to start over, that's fast!