"Bitcoin halving is not a good event⁉️"
Many believe that the Bitcoin halving will be a positive event, as in previous halving cycles, Bitcoin prices have typically surged to new all-time highs.
🕵️♂️ However, 10x research analyst Marcus Thielen said that previous halvings did not directly lead to bull cycles, but were driven by the macro environment.
He believes that the current market lacks catalysts to push prices higher. As macroeconomic uncertainty hangs over the cryptocurrency market, it is expected that Bitcoin may fall to $50,000 in the coming weeks. In addition, spot Bitcoin ETFs have not seen new inflows as investors have already experienced the initial excitement in January, resulting in the loss of the typical drivers of prices from $40,000 to $70,000.
"ETF inflows did not stop suddenly, but stopped around March 12, when the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index were released."
📊 Data shows that Grayscale Spot Bitcoin ETF GBTC had a net outflow of US$90 million yesterday (April 18), equivalent to 1,420 Bitcoins. Since GBTC was converted to an ETF, 314,225 Bitcoins have flowed out. Currently, GBTC holds 304,970 Bitcoins, down from 620,000 Bitcoins in January when the fund converted to an ETF. In the past 3 months, GBTC has reduced its holdings of Bitcoin by 51%.
⚠️ From late last year to early 2024, traders generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates multiple times this year, while expecting inflation to continue to decline. The expectation has driven risk assets such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies sharply higher. However, the most recent March inflation report showed that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, leading the Fed to repeatedly express uncertainty about whether it will be able to cut interest rates this year.
💡 Personally, I believe that although the Bitcoin halving is a positive factor, Bitcoin’s return to new highs may require range consolidation that lasts for several weeks and is affected by the macro environment. Perhaps the market is giving investors an opportunity to accumulate more chips.
