At present, in fact, without interest rate cuts and water release, the liquidity of the currency circle itself is small, and it is also concentrated on BTC. This is actually why from the macro level, such as the weekly level K, the altcoin has fallen so much, but the released volume has not increased much compared with the usual.

So there are probably two situations for the subsequent rise of the altcoin:

The first is that if the general environment is still in a state of liquidity tightening without interest rate cuts and water release, then if you want to see the rise of the altcoin season, you need to separate the liquidity of BTC (whether it is profitable funds or new funds) and leave it to the altcoin to help the long-suppressed ETH and other sectors to rotate. After all, the narrative of BTC can attract enough funds, and the altcoin does not have it for the time being and can only wait for rotation.

The other is that the change in the macro environment is the emergence of a black swan, which leads to an economic crisis in the United States or the subsequent high interest rates lead to a global financial crisis, and then it is necessary to cut interest rates and release water, thereby ending the high interest rate environment and ushering in a gradually loose monetary policy. The liquidity continues to be sufficient and begins to flow into the currency circle, starting the flourishing of the entire currency circle#比特币减半