US Bitcoin spot ETFs have absorbed a net $12.3 billion in inflows since launch. So how much impact did they have on the overall Bitcoin market?

Lead Glassnode analyst James Check offered an analysis on Wednesday measuring the impact of Bitcoin ETFs compared to existing futures and spot markets.

Check began its analysis by examining the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) – the only new Bitcoin ETF that has experienced sustained, large outflows since January 11. The fund lost 300,000 BTC, approximately half of its total assets. However, the increased value of existing BTC on its balance sheet caused its net asset value to drop from just $28.7 billion to $23.1 billion.

“GBTC will be classified as a long-term conservative supply,” Check said. Most coins within the fund are held by older investors who purchase shares on a much lower cost basis than their competitors. This means that as Bitcoin's price rises, they have more incentive to sell.

When looking at other Bitcoin ETFs, Check compared their net inflows to the change in Bitcoin's "realized cap" — an on-chain measure of how much capital is coming into the Bitcoin network. ETF inflows amounted to $28.5 billion, while the entire network recorded capital inflows of $52 billion.

ETFs are about 40 to 50 percent as large by volume as the traditional Bitcoin spot market, Check said. Futures volume dominates both sectors, representing 80 to 85 percent of Bitcoin trading on average.

“If we look at it in terms of trading volume, long-term conservative outlays or ETF inflows…we're talking something in the thirty to fifty percent range,” Check concluded about the size of ETFs.