Yesterday, the enthusiasm of the short sellers stayed at 60800. The daily long Yang line attacked, and the single Yang swallowed up the falling negative line, and the bulls returned strongly. We look forward to the main bull breaking upward and meeting the expected targets of 65,000 and 67,000. Everything is expected.
The Fed meeting ended with officials maintaining their outlook for three interest rate cuts this year. However, due to the recent rise in inflation, they have reduced their expectations for a rate cut in 2025. Powell said inflation was easing, policy rates may have peaked, and he was ready to cut interest rates to support the economy. Economic data was better than expected, with job growth strong but inflation slowing down. GDP and core PCE inflation forecasts were raised and the unemployment rate lowered, but most officials still expect three interest rate cuts this year. The economy is optimistic and inflation is cautious.
The Federal Reserve kept policy rates unchanged at its March meeting and raised its forecasts for GDP growth and core PCE inflation. The dot plot retained the guidance of three interest rate cuts during the year, which was interpreted as dovish by the market. The Fed's confidence in cutting interest rates is shaken and it is unwilling to change the path of interest rates, which may increase the risk of the economy not landing.
There are several explanations for this: 1: Still believe that inflation can improve, but raising the inflation forecast is unreasonable; 2: Increase tolerance for inflation and accept higher inflation; 3: Affected by non-economic factors, such as the general election. Looking back at Powell's remarks last year, the market was too optimistic in expecting an interest rate cut, which may happen again.
This round of bullish rise was accelerated by the American League decision. Starting from the day before yesterday, the price rebounded after touching the daily 30-day moving average, and ended with a low breaking Yin cross star. It rose violently early this morning and then fell back. It is expected to dip again and rise quickly. The return of bulls means continuing the unilateral layout idea, focusing on yesterday's bull burst point near 65,000 as a support position. It is recommended to go short first and then go long!
suggestion:
In the morning, 67700 was directly short and continued to hold. If it did not advance, you can enter now. If it has entered, continue to hold! It will be more if it falls to around 65,000, and the target is 68,000!
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