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爱机车和生活
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$VANRY Keep smashing the market, haha, I ran away at the highest point
$VANRY
Keep smashing the market, haha, I ran away at the highest point
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice.
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这是干嘛,直接说抢算啦
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$VANRY 砸盘啦,庄家出货啦,一个字跑,这个庄是个怂蛋
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$VANRY 我出货啦,利好出尽,拜拜
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$VANRY 垃圾币,庄家不敢使劲拉,拉不动,看看arkm
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黑天鹅 1、减半前或牛市中发生的黑天鹅事件,不会中断牛市进程 2、牛市末期的黑天鹅事件会终结牛市,甚至会直接进入熊市 3、加密市场的黑天鹅有监管打击、黑客攻击、全球宏观事件、旁氏模型崩溃几种类型,历史跌幅都在40%以上,持续时间超过一个月 4、黑天鹅事件几乎每年都有,明后年的黑天鹅事件可能与传统金融的宏观事件有关(债务危机、银行问题、经济放缓) 5、应对黑天鹅事件需要了解货币周期,资产多元化(美股、加密、场外现金流)、通过期权或套保对冲风险 需要注意的黑天鹅时间节点 1、减半前的3月,发生了312事件和硅谷银行破产事件,3月股市巨幅波动,几次金融危机都在这个月份。 2、减半后的5月,5月历史上发生519和LUNA事件,又在减半后以及是美联储降息博弈的关键节点 3、减半的一年后,2025年的5月-7月,历史上的9.4,5.19事件因为政策所中断牛市进程的节点,都是在减半一年后发生,在这之前市场一般都有迹象或是过于狂热,政府出手干预 4、2025年的11月-12月,几次终结牛市的时间节点,2017历史高点、2021年历史高点、2022年FTX事件,主要看btc在传统金融市场是否有重大进展,例如前两次就是因为CMEbtc期货和悦和btc期货ETF而开始熊市
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