The support is effective, Bitcoin stabilized over the weekend, and the altcoins were relatively active. Please do not trade on the right side to chase highs.
Weekend topic: Where will the black swans of the market appear in the future? Can the US economy achieve a soft landing?

Hi, girls and boys, welcome to Uncle Cat Talking about Coins.

As of the time of posting, Bitcoin is priced at around 51,400, with a slight rebound from the early morning. During the weekend, the market met expectations, and the altcoin market was active after Bitcoin stabilized above 50,000. However, it is currently suitable for left-side trading, and right-side trading may incur the risk of penalty.

With nothing to do on the weekend, let's discuss where the black swans that will have a greater impact on the crypto market will appear in the future? Can the US economy have a smooth soft landing?


Bitcoin disk:

Although the price of Bitcoin has not effectively fallen to 50,000 or even below, the market has begun to be bearish. In fact, from a technical point of view, the 1-hour and 4-hour trends have begun to go down. Whether it is the Bollinger Bands, the price channel, or the various lines, if each rebound does not break the previous high, the overall trend is still downward. Simply speaking, the downward trend of the Bollinger Bands is the same.

The 1-hour Bollinger Band price is still in a volatile range. Although the overall trend of the 1-hour Bollinger Band is relatively flat, turning from a downward trend to a sideways trend, if the price rebounds once and does not break through the 1-hour Bollinger Band, then the market sentiment will become increasingly depressed. The current 1-hour Bollinger Band amplitude is about 600 points, and the Bollinger Band is about to enter the contraction stage. If the price continues to run on the upper track of the Bollinger Band and continues to move upward during the breakthrough stage, and successfully breaks through the high position of 52,000 1 hour ago, then the downward channel will be broken. On the contrary, it may be urgent to see the downward trend. According to the current Bollinger Band amplitude, the breakthrough will occur on Sunday.

In the 4-hour period, the Bollinger Bands are also in a downward trend, but the 4-hour price is running at the lower track of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the current price rebound pressure is still relatively large. The 4-hour mid-line pressure is around 51,200, which is also the upper line of the 1-hour Bollinger Bands. This position needs to be broken through and stabilized. If it fails, the price will continue to run on the lower track, and the downward pressure will be greater. At the same time, the 4-hour Bollinger Bands have an amplitude of 1,200 points. If the 1-hour breakthrough is invalid, it will continue to run on the lower track. If the 4-hour contraction reaches a certain extent next week, it will break through downward to test the lower pressure.

On the daily chart, the price is running on the upper track of the Bollinger Band. The upper line of the daily Bollinger Band and the MA7 moving average are still trending downward. The price has rebound pressure in the short term, but as time goes by, it continues to go sideways again. The daily support continues to rise, which will add a layer of protection to the current price in the future, provided that it continues to stabilize. At present, the daily support has come to around 49,400. If it persists until the middle of next week, the support will come to around 50,000, which will be better.

From the overall technical point of view, the hourly level is indeed moving in a downward channel. After all, there is no effective short-term support on the daily line at present, and it will take some time to wait for the support to move up. However, the current support near 50,700 is not bad. It has been successfully supported once in the test yesterday. This is the support level of 1 hour and 4 hours. This is also the position marked in our figure yesterday. As long as the price pressure continues to be effectively supported, or pessimistically, the 50,000 support is effective, and the pure technical downward trend will be effectively blocked after the daily support moves up next week. At present, overall, the current price still needs to continue to consolidate and stabilize.

Market dynamics and funding changes:

The current total market value is 2.064 trillion, compared with yesterday's 2.056 trillion, a single-day increase of 8 billion.

The total market value of Bitcoin is 100.37 billion, a single-day increase of 3.7 billion compared to yesterday's market value of 10,000.

The total market value of Ethereum is 355.67 billion, a single-day increase of 2.77 billion compared to yesterday's market value of 352.9 billion.

Judging from the changes in market value, today's market value growth mainly comes from Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a total market value increase of 6.47 billion, and the remaining 1.63 billion comes from the copycat market.
The overall market value increased slightly and the market activity was poor.

Bitcoin accounted for 48.6%, down 3 basis points from yesterday, and Ethereum accounted for 17.2%, the same as yesterday.

Trading volume

The total transaction volume of the entire network was 71.28 billion, a decrease of 8.82 billion transactions compared to yesterday's total transaction volume of 80.1 billion.
Bitcoin transaction volume is 18.3 billion, a decrease of 2.9 billion compared to yesterday's 21.2 billion.

Ethereum transaction volume is 12.7 billion, which is 3.8 billion less than yesterday's 16.5 billion transaction volume.

Excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, the transaction volume of altcoins today was 40.2 billion, a decrease of 2.4 billion transactions compared with yesterday's 42.4 billion.

In terms of trading volume, the year-on-year data is still down compared to yesterday, especially for copycats. Today, the market value of copycats has not increased much, but the trading volume is slightly lower than yesterday. Although the copycat market was active on Saturday, the increase was not large, the turnover rate was high, and the trading sentiment was a game of long and short.


Funding:
The total funds in the market were 140.9 billion yuan, an increase of 500 million yuan compared with yesterday, accounting for 6.82%, a decrease of 4 basis points.

The funds in the market increased and their proportion decreased, and the market trading sentiment gradually became positive. Bitcoin stabilized during the weekend and the altcoin market became more active.

USDT: The current total market value is 97.9 billion, the 24-hour market value increased by 0.1%, and the 24-hour funds increased by 97.9 million.
The slowdown in capital inflows from Asia for two consecutive days this week has temporarily ended. On Saturday, capital began to flow into the market significantly, with the inflow time being around 8 a.m. This is also consistent with the active copycat activity during the weekend, and Asian capital loves the copycat market.


USDC: Market value 28.14 billion, 24-hour market value increased by 0.34%, 24-hour funds increased by 95.67 million,

Yesterday we said that the temporary outflow of US funds is normal, but we need to see whether the funds will flow back into the market after the US stock market closes at the weekend to ensure that the judgment of fund sentiment is correct. At present, US funds have obviously flowed into the market in the early morning before and after the US stock market closes.
The sentiment of capital inflow from the United States has temporarily returned to normal. From the overall market perspective, Bitcoin and Ethereum did perform weakly over the weekend. Although the market value of the altcoins did not change much, the trading volume was not low, and a large number of turnover transactions occurred. The proportion of funds on the market decreased, and the sentiment has obviously improved. Asian and American funds have returned to the market normally. The current market performance is in line with my expectations. If Bitcoin stabilizes above 50,000 over the weekend, the altcoins will have a chance.

Macroeconomics and news:

Weekend topics: Did the black swan of 24 years come from the macro economy? Can the US economy achieve a soft landing? How can we reasonably view the development of AI instead of being fooled by others' "pie in the sky"?

As 312 is approaching, many analyst friends are worried about whether 312 will continue the previous history and appear a black swan. In fact, 312 can only represent past history, not the present.

Moreover, the 312 mentioned by most people is not a specific date, but may be the representative word of black swan.

Because of 312 and the black swan, many people are actively discussing where the black swan will appear this year, which can be regarded as a discussion of mine clearance.

In fact, from a macro perspective, there are hidden risks in the current crypto market, but few of them can cause large-scale fluctuations. After all, the crypto market continues to grow and mature. You can't use the same tricks to defeat a Saint Seiya. Similarly, the same level of black swans cannot cause the same panic in the market.

At present, the probability of a black swan event occurring in the macro-economy is not high, but it is possible, and if it does occur, it may be a bigger problem than Silicon Valley Bank.

Whether the US economy is strong enough, whether the US debt crisis will break out, and specifically whether the US stock bubble will burst.
I'm not intentionally bearish. Today's topic is just a simple discussion and everyone can just laugh it off.
The following content is the result of my review of the materials. If there are any mistakes, you are welcome to check and fill in the gaps.

First, is the US economy really that strong?

Since the global mask shadow has passed, the US economy has begun to rebound rapidly. In order to demonstrate its strength and global status, the United States has been emphasizing the strength of its domestic economy.
At the same time, in order to prove its strength, the Fed started to raise interest rates in 2023 and began to shrink its balance sheet. At the beginning, through various data from the United States, the frequency and magnitude of interest rate hikes in the United States, as well as the hot labor market in the United States, including the determination of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, we saw that the US economy is as strong as it appears.
But then it got a little weird. At the end of the rate hike, when people were talking about when to pause and when to cut, the Fed looked a little awkward.

Should a healthy and benign economy consider both the risks of interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts?

It shouldn't be like that. If the economy is strong and developing healthily, we can just keep raising interest rates. Why do we stop raising interest rates after they reach a certain level? After all, inflation has not reached the target. Although inflation is decreasing in a decreasing manner, there is still pressure for it to rebound. Wouldn't it be better to continue to suppress it by raising interest rates?
The stage of suspending interest rate hikes is now being discussed, and the risks of interest rate cuts are being emphasized again.
Again, if the economy is hot and strong, continue to raise interest rates. If inflation has fallen to an acceptable range, simply suspend interest rate hikes. However, when the market is optimistic about rate cuts, the Fed keeps reminding people of the risks of rate cuts to delay the time of rate cuts. Why?
By the same token, if inflation is the Federal Reserve’s core stated goal, what does a problem with inflation bring?
Lower employment income, consumption downgrade, imbalance between supply and demand, lower corporate revenue, production cuts to reduce input-to-output ratio, slowing production, these are all problems faced by inflation. If the economy is really strong, would you still worry about this problem?

The Fed is increasing the fiscal deficit while shrinking its balance sheet?

In the process of shrinking the balance sheet, the income in the United States has increased, and the economy is booming. Why is the Federal Reserve increasing the fiscal deficit while shrinking and launching stimulus? Why is it giving welfare to the people?
Why do we appease the lower classes through welfare? The US government also knows that the American people are not living well, so in order to maintain the people's hearts, it distributes welfare. Of course, there is another important aspect of fiscal spending, such as national defense, foreign aid, military expenditure, etc. However, increasing the deficit while shrinking the economy does not seem like what a normal policymaker should do.

In terms of employment,
The U.S. job market has always been hot. At the same time, through U.S. stocks, we can see that since 2004, it has been technology stocks that have led the stock market out of the bull market.
This shows that technology companies are profitable, and when companies are profitable, they need to expand and create more jobs, so the U.S. labor market is bound to heat up. However, the layoff data of high-tech companies and manufacturing companies in the past two years are all there. Isn't it unreasonable that the most profitable companies have been laying off employees?
U.S. stocks have been rising.
However, the US production index continues to decline, orders are declining, shipments are declining, and electricity consumption is also declining.
If the company's profits are really that good, it should be facing expansion and development rather than layoffs and declining performance.
Therefore, the strength of the US stock market has always relied on the bubble of technology stocks. Why is it called a bubble?
It’s still the same question as above. With technology stocks performing so well, why are they laying off employees?
Of course, I am talking about the general situation, not a specific company. So I have been saying recently that the US stock market is currently in a very big bubble period.

Today, Arnault, one of the founders of Wall Street Research Affiliates, said that the US stock market is currently facing a bubble risk of $800 billion.
And the biggest risk at present is that the market valuation lags behind the bubble. In other words, the market's assessment of the stock market is far less than the scale of the bubble, which is tantamount to increasing the risk rate of US stocks.
At the same time, Arnault said that you should never short bubble stocks when they are rising, but you don't have to hold them.
The subtext is that the bubble sentiment of bubble stocks is difficult to control, the risk of short selling is too great, and it is not necessary to chase the popularity and buy bubble stocks. But this is also a reminder to the market not to chase the bubble heat, otherwise the bubble will burst without effective support.


When it comes to technology stocks, AI cannot be avoided.

Since 2003, the emergence of AI has brought new narratives and expectations to people around the world. People are chasing the huge and beautiful expectations that the future of science and technology will bring us, and at the same time, they are proposing that AI will replace humans and create a better future.

But is it really so?

With the emergence of AI, its continuous progress, the recent Sora, and the developments we expect in the future, we can regard AI as the third industrial revolution.

But will the technological revolution really replace humans?

According to the definition I know, the scientific and technological revolution is to liberate productivity, free human hands and feet, free low-level repetitive work, and make humans freer. But it is not to let the scientific and technological revolution replace humans.

If we follow this logic, is the hype that AI will replace human labor reasonable? As I have been saying recently, if AI is vigorously developed to replace human labor, how will the employment problem be solved and how will the internal circulation of the economy be eased?
How to digest the production capacity after using AI to improve productivity? Who will pay for it?

These are all problems. Of course, we have to admit that the future of science and technology is the best global narrative at present. Relying on this narrative, the world is also experiencing a wave of technology craze and bubble. This bubble process can bring wealth, but it can also eventually bring disaster.

So I suggest that everyone should look at AI rationally, and make money by following the hype, but be careful not to let your cognition deviate during the FOMO process.

Americans are very good at data, and many high-net-worth individuals also believe in data, so when looking at the data on the US economy, the United States is indeed strong.
Just as everyone has been optimistically expecting, the U.S. economy has experienced a soft landing, inflation has decreased, the economy has developed healthily, and society is thriving.

However, in the long history of US economic development, there have only been three soft landings.
The first time 1965-1967,
Second time, 1983-1984
The third time, 1993-1994,
The United States also experienced two hard landings.
1973-1975， 2008-2009，
Especially the second time, the U.S. stock market experienced a hard landing, the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates, and the economy directly experienced a hard landing, triggering a financial crisis.

Soft landing conditions,
The government has loosened monetary policy more flexibly, the economy has grown slowly, the unemployment rate has fallen slowly, and inflation has been controlled and reduced.

Given these hard indicators, why is the Federal Reserve currently delaying interest rate cuts?

The reason is self-evident, right?
Once we start to cut interest rates, we will have to face an economic slowdown, whether it is slow growth or a direct recession, which will bring about an increase in employment rate and a rebound in inflation, all of which are subjective pressures.
Therefore, once interest rates start to fall, we will know whether the US economy can achieve a soft landing. However, whether the economy will achieve a soft landing or a hard landing cannot be fooled by simply "faking" a few data.

And if there is a hard landing like in 2008, an economic crisis occurs in the United States, and a global financial crisis is triggered, I think this black swan may indeed be more explosive than the Silicon Valley crisis.

So, my final conclusion is that, at present, the crypto market has become more resistant after experiencing the FTX incident in the circle and the Silicon Valley Bank incident outside the circle. The same trick may be difficult to defeat this growing market. However, if an economic crisis occurs in the United States, it may be a terrifying black swan. Of course, dear readers, don't panic, don't be nervous, I am not bearish on the market, I am not trying to scare you, today's theme is to discuss. If you don't like it, don't worry too much. If you think it's okay, welcome to discuss, it can also be regarded as a future risk warning.

Market summary:

It is now close to 3 am on Sunday morning Beijing time, and I have wasted too much time writing the first half. Maybe most people don’t care about the macroeconomic situation, but it may be a personal hobby, so I will just share it. If you don’t like it, you can ignore it.

The overall market basically met our expectations in the first few days of this week. Bitcoin stabilized around 50,000, and altcoins were relatively active over the weekend. In addition, U.S. and Asian funds clearly flowed into the market over the weekend.

Although Bitcoin is currently in a downward trend, there must be rebounds during the period. In the rebound, pay attention to whether it breaks through the downward track and stands firm to break the previous high. Otherwise, the downward trend will not be broken, and it will basically fluctuate in the range. Many people still think that the trend of Bitcoin should be rising or falling all the time, but in fact, whether it rises or falls, it is a process. In the current downward trend, 50,000 is a core point. During the period, it rebounded and rose, and fell back without breaking the previous high. This proves that the short-term trend of shock and decline has not changed. Especially remind friends who do contracts to pay attention to their hands at this time. Especially on weekends, the market itself is weak, so don't act rashly.

As for the spot market, Bitcoin stabilized above 50,000. The altcoins were indeed active over the weekend, and DeFi moved frequently. Last weekend it was AI. You see, the market is not lacking in heat, but you have to understand how long the heat can last.

At present, it is more suitable to trade on the left side. Before the weekend, build a position and wait for the result on the weekend. Do not wait for the token to move abnormally on the weekend to chase and build a position. If you can grasp the short-term, it is okay. But worry that once you are in a bad position, or once you want to make a layout, the U.S. stock market opens on Monday, or Bitcoin falls slightly again, the market will calm down, and you will be punished.

AI was really popular last weekend, and many people made money, but many people also chased high prices and have been punished so far. UNI soared all the way yesterday, but some people were indeed trapped at high prices and were punished. So during the weekend, after Bitcoin stabilized, the altcoins were active, but don't be too FOMO.

Finally, thank you for your continued attention to Uncle Cat and your continued support. Today, the Lantern Festival also brings you two benefits, both of which are benefits of the Bi'an event, one is a lucky draw to get short positions, and the other is to participate in the BNX new game IGO whitelist lucky draw.

For details on participation, please pay attention to the two articles released by Tui or Guangchang. The participation methods are explained and you can follow up.

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