Bitcoin’s Q3 gain reached 44%, surpassing gold and U.S. stocks, and it broke above the 50-week moving average. Altcoins followed suit in tandem, and the market expects a full-blown bull market to be starting. (Background recap: CLARITY bill failed to pass, with the SEC / CFTC filling the void) (Additional context: Crypto stocks see a reversal rebound! Strategy rose 13%, SEC/CFTC pushes forward with rulemaking)   Table of Contents Toggle Looking back: from oversold to breakout Technical indicators: break above the 50-week moving average, bearish signals lifted Altcoins gain momentum as well, with ETH benefiting the most Don’t rush—bull markets don’t mean there are no pullbacks Key points to watch Next, Bitcoin’s performance in Q3 was outstanding. As of the close on September 20, its cumulative gain reached 44%, the strongest single-quarter performance since the powerful rally of last year’s fourth quarter. According to TradingView data, gold rose only 8.7% over the same period, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq added 2% each. Not only did Bitcoin outperform the broader market, it even surpassed one of the world’s largest market-cap tech companies, NVDA (+11%), completely reversing the passive situation earlier in the year where “AI stocks stole the spotlight.” Looking back: from oversold to breakout The starting point for this upswing was the oversold condition in the first quarter. Large discounted buy orders flooded in, and short positions were squeezed, creating initial momentum. Recently, there has been an additional layer of catalyst: on September 17, the SEC granted a five-year innovation exemption. Tagus Capital’s analysis notes that this exemption allows regulated venues to use automated market makers and trade tokenized U.S. stocks backed by blockchain liquidity pools, injecting institutional confidence into the crypto market. BTC/USDT’s last 168-hour trend (Data source: Binance, chart drawn by Dongqu) Technical indicators: break above the 50-week moving average, bearish signals lifted By the week of September 20, Bitcoin closed above the 50-week moving average—its first time in 45 weeks. Historical experience suggests that this kind of breakout is one of the key technical signals indicating the end of a bear market and the start of a bull market. Bitcoin’s price has broken above the May high, moving above $84,000, which is the highest level since January this year. More importantly, within the $84,000 to $97,000 range, there has been limited recent trading activity. If momentum continues, with thinner resistance overhead, the market could directly push toward six figures. Altcoins gain momentum as well, with ETH benefiting the most Bitcoin is not fighting alone. In Q3, the gains of ETH, XRP, SOL, UNI, and NEAR ranged from 40% to 150%. The broad activation of the altcoin market is a typical sign of a bull market spreading. Tagus Capital specifically points out that Ethereum benefits more than other targets due to the concentrated deployment of tokenized assets. As a leading public chain for tokenized assets, ETH’s market value expansion has real fundamental support—not just pure speculation. Don’t rush—bull markets don’t mean there are no pullbacks Even with such impressive data, market analysts remain cautious. FxPro’s chief market analyst, Alex Kuptsikevich, said: “This is already a bull market, but a sudden pullback isn’t unusual. In the absence of clear positive growth signals, it’s necessary to stay on guard.” He also reminds that while bullish sentiment in altcoins does boost Bitcoin, rushing in to chase prices is not the best strategy right now. Key points to watch Going forward, the underlying logic of this rally can be broken down into two layers. The first is the capital side: the Q3 oversold rebound plus the short squeeze plus the SEC innovation exemption—forming a dual catalyst of both “technical” and “policy.” The second is the structural side: the chain reaction of tokenized stocks is expanding. RWA capital is moving in, ETH as infrastructure benefits, and altcoin market caps expand in sync. This is fundamentally different from the rally in Q4 2024 driven by a single channel from ETFs. Taiwanese investors can watch two signals. First, whether Bitcoin can continue to hold above $84,000 for at least a week to confirm it’s a real breakout—not a false breakout. Second, whether altcoin gains can maintain above 40%. If altcoins surge first and then pull back while BTC stays unmoved, it usually means momentum is being consumed at the retail end. Overall, the 44% gain in Q3 is just the opening act; the real test is whether, in October, there is a high-volume breakout above the resistance zone at $97,000. Related reports Bitcoin surges past $80,000, and Ethereum jumps to $2,500! $470 million liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours Crypto stocks see a reversal rebound! Strategy rises 13%, SEC/CFTC pushes rules Zcash rockets against the trend up 23%! Paradigm says it’s Bitcoin’s “privacy completion” Grayscale reviews the best-performing assets in Q3—what factors will drive Q4? CoinEx announces it will stop operations and liquidate for exit; founder Yang Haipo: limited income, unlimited risk isn’t rational “Bitcoin’s Q3 skyrockets 44%! Breaks above the 50-week moving average—has the bull market really returned?” This article was first published on Dongqu BlockTempo (Dongqu Dongqu—most influential blockchain news media).