Hello, dear friends.
Let’s examine the current situation $BTC without trying to guess the market from a single candle. I look at the chart, futures indicators, and the factors that are directly affecting the crypto market right now, all at the same time.
At the time of analysis #BTCUSDT it was around 81,590 USDT; the change over the day was approximately +1.6%.
On the daily chart, the price is above AVL 81,477.8, SAR 75,579.5, and Supertrend 75,111.4.
On the 4H chart, the price is around 81,586.5; AVL is at 81,540; SAR is at 80,533.6; Supertrend is at 79,136.8.
On the 15M timeframe, the price is around 81,598; AVL is at 81,602.2; SAR at 81,097.6; Supertrend at 81,101.6.
This highlights an important difference between timeframes: on the daily and 4H charts, the price is above the indicated indicator levels, while on the 15M it is almost stuck at the AVL.
Now, the futures data.
Open interest on the presented 5-minute chart increased from about 108.1K BTC to 109.5K BTC. In dollar terms, the figure rose from about 8.78 to 8.95 billion USDT.
Over the same period, the price rose from about 81,250 to 81,850 USDT.
The point is simple here: price and open interest were rising at the same time. But OI shows the number of open contracts and does not, by itself, allow you to determine which side opened the positions.
At the time of the snapshot, funding was about +0.00420%. Positive funding means that, under this calculation, longs pay shorts.
On the basis chart, the futures price in the shown range was below the index price, meaning basis was negative.
Around 09:35, there was a noticeable amount of aggressive sell volume in the taker buy/sell. After that, around 09:40, large buying volumes appeared. Then the indicators became mixed again.
The positioning ratio of large traders on the presented chart was roughly in the 2.07–2.10 range.
At the same time, the account-based ratio was below 1, about 0.87–0.93.
These two indicators cannot be mixed. The first relates to the ratio of positions; the second to the number of accounts. Therefore, a value of 0.87 does not mean that 87% of capital is in shorts.
Now, let’s move to the news backdrop.
On September 16, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75–4.00%. The decision was unanimous, with 12 votes against 0.
At the same time, Bitcoin later returned above the 80,000 USDT level. On September 18, BTC traded above that mark despite the ongoing uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy and crypto legislation.
As for the legislation, this remains a separate factor. On September 15, the U.S. Senate did not advance the CLARITY Act: the procedural vote ended 49–50, whereas 60 votes were required to move the bill forward.
At the same time, on September 17 the SEC announced a temporary conditional exemption for certain exchanges related to trading tokenized stocks. This is not a general permission to trade any tokenized stocks; it applies to the conditions specified by the SEC in a specific order.
On September 18, the CFTC forwarded a draft regulation of crypto transactions and markets to the OIRA for review. The detailed contents of the proposal have not been publicly disclosed, so it’s not possible to draw conclusions about specific future requirements yet.
Separately, I’m looking at U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
For the week ending September 18, the total result was only about +$6.2 million. Importantly, on September 18 a large daily inflow of about +$433 million was recorded, of which approximately $310.7 million went to FBTC Fidelity. Before that, over the course of the week, there were outflows of about $450.3 million and $296 million.
Therefore, it’s more accurate to say not there is a continuous inflow into the ETF, but rather a mixed weekly dynamic with a strong positive result on Friday.
Now the levels from the chart.
The nearest zone above is around 82,100–82,300 USDT. On the 15M chart, the local maximum is marked around 82,099.9; on the 4H chart, around 82,282.8.
The next level on the daily chart is around 82,828.7.
On the 15M timeframe, the levels below are 81,322 and 80,873.8.
On the 4H timeframe, the important values are around 80,533.6 and 79,136.8.
So, based on the chart alone, there are currently two scenarios.
If the price holds above the 82,100–82,300 zone, the next reference point becomes the area around 82,830.
If the price falls back below 81,100, it will mean a move below the current 15M SAR and Supertrend. The next chart levels are around 80,874, 80,534, and 79,137.
In the current segment, we have several simultaneously observable facts: the price is above key levels on the daily and 4H charts, open interest is increasing along with the price, funding remains positive, basis is below zero, and the long/short metrics differ depending on whether positions or accounts are used.
That’s why I would separate facts from assumptions right now. The chart shows specific levels and market structure; the futures data shows changes in OI, funding, and positioning ratios; and the news provides a macroeconomic and regulatory backdrop. None of these indicators alone confirms the direction of the next move.
This is my personal opinion and analysis of market data. The material is for informational purposes only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice, nor a guide to making transactions—especially using futures and leverage.