FOMC September: What’s the Fed’s Next Move?
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, keeping inflation pressure alive.
Markets are now pricing roughly a 90%+ probability of a 25 bp Fed hike this week.
So the real question isn’t only “Will the Fed hike?”
It’s: What comes next?
My base case is a 25 bp hike, but I wouldn’t automatically call it the start of a long hiking cycle.
The Fed may want to re-establish inflation credibility first, then watch how higher energy costs, demand and future inflation data develop.
For markets, the reaction could depend more on the Fed’s guidance than the hike itself.
→ BTC: A hawkish Fed could pressure risk appetite and liquidity, creating short-term downside volatility.
→ Tech stocks: Higher rates generally increase the discount rate applied to future earnings, which can pressure high-valuation growth stocks.
→ Gold: Higher real yields and a stronger dollar can be a headwind, although inflation and geopolitical risks could keep demand for gold strong.
So I’m watching the statement and press conference closely.
A 25 bp hike may already be priced in.
The bigger move could come from what the Fed signals about October, December and 2027.
My approach: avoid chasing the first FOMC candle. I’d rather wait for confirmation after the decision and then trade the reaction.
What’s your view?
Bullish or bearish on BTC, tech and gold after the FOMC?
#FedRateWatch
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, keeping inflation pressure alive.
Markets are now pricing roughly a 90%+ probability of a 25 bp Fed hike this week.
So the real question isn’t only “Will the Fed hike?”
It’s: What comes next?
My base case is a 25 bp hike, but I wouldn’t automatically call it the start of a long hiking cycle.
The Fed may want to re-establish inflation credibility first, then watch how higher energy costs, demand and future inflation data develop.
For markets, the reaction could depend more on the Fed’s guidance than the hike itself.
→ BTC: A hawkish Fed could pressure risk appetite and liquidity, creating short-term downside volatility.
→ Tech stocks: Higher rates generally increase the discount rate applied to future earnings, which can pressure high-valuation growth stocks.
→ Gold: Higher real yields and a stronger dollar can be a headwind, although inflation and geopolitical risks could keep demand for gold strong.
So I’m watching the statement and press conference closely.
A 25 bp hike may already be priced in.
The bigger move could come from what the Fed signals about October, December and 2027.
My approach: avoid chasing the first FOMC candle. I’d rather wait for confirmation after the decision and then trade the reaction.
What’s your view?
Bullish or bearish on BTC, tech and gold after the FOMC?
#FedRateWatch