What explains Bitcoin volatility the most isn’t market cap, leverage, or volume.
It’s who holds the coins.
A Glassnode study tested 13 variables against the 1-month realized volatility.
Long-term holders’ share of the supply explains about 19% of the variance—more than any other single factor. Illiquid supply and liveliness come right after.
Market cap, the most repeated argument for explaining low volatility, appears near the bottom of the list, at a little over 3%.
Practically tied with coin velocity, and even below the funding rate.
Want to truly understand how Bitcoin volatility works? Study on-chain.
We’re in a low-volatility regime that should persist for a few more cycles before a new expansion.
It’s who holds the coins.
A Glassnode study tested 13 variables against the 1-month realized volatility.
Long-term holders’ share of the supply explains about 19% of the variance—more than any other single factor. Illiquid supply and liveliness come right after.
Market cap, the most repeated argument for explaining low volatility, appears near the bottom of the list, at a little over 3%.
Practically tied with coin velocity, and even below the funding rate.
Want to truly understand how Bitcoin volatility works? Study on-chain.
We’re in a low-volatility regime that should persist for a few more cycles before a new expansion.
