A European intelligence report says Russia’s wartime boom is built on debt, and a banking crisis could be triggered at any moment. In the direction of the Persian Gulf, U.S. forces hit 300 targets over three nights, while oil prices rose by only 3%.

1｜European intelligence report: Russia’s economy is a “mirage,” and a banking crisis is one spark away

A European country intelligence report seen by Reuters estimates that 10% of Russian corporate loans may not be repaid, and that 15% of retail loans at some large banks have already become non-performing assets. In 2025, more than 500,000 Russians declared personal bankruptcy, up by about one-third. A national program encouraged citizens to hold more than three loans at the same time, and 13 million people did so.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs has lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.3% to 0.4%. The Ministry of Finance is drafting legislation in an attempt to tap $40 billion in savings from private pension funds. The leader of the Communist Party, speaking bluntly in parliament, said that the 130 trillion rubles in bank accounts should be “mobilized” to address economic difficulties.

Putin’s war-economy model replaces fiscal spending with bank credit, shifting the costs of expansion onto the private sector. The banks complied, and the risk stayed on the banks’ balance sheets. Now inflation is eroding purchasing power, while bad debts are damaging capital adequacy ratios—this machine is starting to turn on itself. Once pensions are “mobilized,” it would be another credit default by Russia on its middle class.

(Source: Reuters / Fortune / Yahoo Finance / US News)

2｜U.S. forces strike 300 targets over three nights; Iran attacks five Gulf neighboring countries (continuing from yesterday’s report)

The U.S. Central Command completed its third round of strikes late on July 12, hitting about 140 Iranian military targets overnight. In three days, the total exceeded 300, covering missile bases, drone bases, ammunition depots, communications networks, and coastal monitoring facilities. The trigger was that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps again fired on merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s response was not only aimed at the United States. U.S. military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Oman were all hit by Iranian missiles. In Qatar, intercepting fragments caused three people to be injured, including a child. The Joint Maritime Information Center says that the southern approach lane along Oman’s coastline remains open for passage. In the past two months, U.S. forces escorted more than 800 ships and 400 million barrels of crude oil through the strait.

The market reaction was unusually calm. U.S. oil rose 3.2% to $73.70 per barrel, while Brent rose 3.2% to $78.45 per barrel. Rapidan Energy president McNally warned of “a large amount of complacency.” The shell of the June ceasefire deal has already cracked; the two sides are effectively in a state of naval war without officially declaring one.

(Source: CENTCOM / Fortune / Al Jazeera / NPR / PBS / JMIC)

3｜Graham suddenly passed away; the last backer behind Sa’s push for peace is gone

U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham died on July 12 due to a “sudden acute illness,” at age 71. In the final weeks of his life, he was pushing for the last round of efforts to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Graham began urging Trump in mid-May to make Saudi-Israel normalization the core of a post-Iran regional plan; Trump later said in a call with multiple world leaders that he was willing to push it forward.

The obstacle is in the details. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s enthusiasm has cooled. Riyadh insists that any diplomatic normalization must include an irreversible timeline for establishing a Palestinian state. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition government rejected that condition.

Graham is the most powerful driving force behind this deal in Washington. He started in 1999 by participating in the impeachment of Clinton, was elected senator in 2002, and for more than two decades afterward remained at the center of U.S. foreign policy. His disappearance means the question “What happens after Iran?” has lost its most proactive answerer. South Carolina congresswoman Nancy Mace has said she is “seriously considering” running for his Senate seat.

(Source: Fortune / Axios / Times of Israel / The Media Line)

4｜Ireland’s data centers consume 23% of the country’s power—more than the total for all urban households nationwide

The Irish Central Statistics Office shows that in 2025, data centers consumed 23% of the country’s electricity, reaching 7,663 gigawatt-hours, up 10%. The figure exceeds the total electricity used by all urban households in Ireland (18%) and is more than twice that of rural households (9%). The International Energy Agency previously predicted that data centers would account for one-third of Ireland’s electricity consumption by 2026.

EirGrid, the grid operator, had previously imposed a connection ban on new data centers in the Dublin area; at the end of last year it replaced that with new rules: each new facility must provide its own generation or energy-storage system, and 80% of annual electricity usage must come from newly built renewable-energy projects. On the same day, Trinidad and Tobago signed data center construction memorandums with two U.S. companies, despite the long-running water scarcity faced by this Caribbean country.

Global demand for AI computing power is looking for a foothold, from Europe to the Caribbean. Each destination is being asked to pay a different price for the same problem. Ireland pays for grid security, Trinidad pays with fresh water.

(Source: Tom’s Hardware / The Register / CSO Ireland / EirGrid / Fortune)

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