Characteristics of 61 hundred-fold projects, looking for alpha in the next cycle

Author: Rocky
Source: @Rocky_Bitcoin
During the entire bull market cycle from 2020 (individually 2019) to 2021, among the top 600 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, 61 projects were born that exceeded 100 times.
Today we will take a look at their characteristics and attributes, and what insights they can bring to our upcoming 2023-2025 new cycle! (Due to data source reasons, some individual data may be slightly different, please understand, select the varieties that can be purchased in the secondary market, excluding the primary market)
1. First, let’s take a look at the top 100 currencies in the cryptocurrency market on March 15, 2020. Let’s take a look at the top 100 currencies in the cryptocurrency market on November 8, 2021, the peak moment of the market. How many of them do you know?
Chart of the top 100 cryptocurrencies on March 15, 2020
It is not difficult to find that the vast majority have been replaced, with a replacement rate of 67%. The next bull market is likely to be the same. The top 100 projects now often need new narratives to fill in the next bull market.
Chart of the top 100 cryptocurrency projects at their peak on November 8, 2021.
When I was at the Securities Research Institute, my teacher often told us that investment requires imagination, bold assumptions, and careful verification. In the cryptocurrency world, I think it is even more necessary to be imaginative and unrestrained. To make tens or hundreds of times the investment, one must be an unrestrained and forward-thinking idealist.
2. From the perspective of market capitalization ranking, in March 2020, among the top 600 currencies by market capitalization, 61 100-fold coins were born (secondary market). Among the top 100 currencies by market capitalization, there are 11 100-fold coins, accounting for 18%, namely #BNB, #LINK, #ADA, #DOGE, #VET, #SNX, #SOL, #THETA, #HOT, #ENJ, #LUNA. Old coins have new narratives, and it is also a new growth explosion point. For example, BNB and BSC chains have broken away from the single exchange token attribute.
Among the top 100-300 coins by market capitalization, 21 100x coins were born, accounting for 34.4%. Among the top 300-600 coins by market capitalization, 22 coins were born, accounting for 36%. There are 7 coins whose market capitalization is too low to capture data. So overall, among the top 300 coins by market capitalization, a total of 32 100x coins were born, accounting for 10.6% of the total, one in ten.
3. From the perspective of investment institutions, only 9 have verifiable institutional investments. The proportion is low. From the main analysis, the fundraising method of cryptocurrencies at that time still applied the traditional ICO logic of 2017, and there were few institutional players. In addition, due to the limited secondary market screening logic, many projects had not yet issued coins. At that time, institutions such as:#Multicoin#Polychain#Alameda#BN#A16Zalso became top crypto capital in the later period!
4. From the perspective of unlocking and circulation, MC is concentrated in the range of 40%-60%. It is not that full circulation is good, nor is it that little circulation is good. This is a strange phenomenon that cannot be falsified. There is no sufficient reason to convince myself for the time being (welcome to discuss). It is likely related to the birth time, most of which were born in 2018, 2019, and 2020.
5. From the perspective of project establishment time. Among the 100x projects, 76% were established in the 18-20 year bear market cycle, and only 24% were established before 2017 (the previous cycle). Projects with more than 200x: 85% were established in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Among the 100x projects, only 1.7% were established in the late bull market (2021). So from this logic, projects in 2022 and 2023 should be paid more attention.
6. From the perspective of token unit price, people generally prefer cheap ones. The lower the unit price, the more project tokens can be exchanged for the same unit of USDT, which makes people feel more fulfilled or happy. This is a strange phenomenon, but the fact is here. Perhaps it is convenient for CX...
7. The best time to configure, the low point of 100x coin is basically synchronized with the low point of BTC, and the high point of 100x coin is basically synchronized with the high point of BTC. From the current situation, the second bottom, 15,000 or below 15,000, is likely to be the best time to buy altcoins. I expect that during the US financial crisis, the low point of Bitcoin may be 9,800, but who knows. Make a good strategy and build positions in batches.
8. Track classification, the largest number of 100x coins belong to public chains, with a total of 17, accounting for 27.8%. Among them, there are 14 L1, 2 L2, and 1 L0. Comment: In the last cycle, in order to solve the pain points of ETH expansion, TPS, GAS fees, etc., similar to the bull market in 2017, the public chain has a phenomenon of a hundred schools of thought, among which there are many high-performance public chains such as #SOL, #MATIC, #BNB, etc., which have brought prosperity to our cryptocurrency market!
From an investment perspective, investing in a public chain is the choice with the highest fault tolerance rate. There are so many ecological applications, and some survive and some die. But as long as this public chain grows some super applications, it can survive for a long time, so investors are flocking to it. From this perspective, the public chain with a hundred times the potential in the future is likely to be L2, L0, and privacy public chain. It is actually meaningless to do L1. L2, whether it is the current OP or ARB, or the future ZK, they are all good options.
L0 solves the underlying interoperability. ATOM and Layerzero belong to this category. I used to have high expectations for DOT, mainly because of my trust in Gavin Wood. Unfortunately, the slot has deterred many project parties and gradually moved towards closure.
Privacy public chains have always been a direction I am very optimistic about. I have been discussing the vision of the next DEFI SUMMER, which is the prosperity of credit + derivatives. Our modern finance is based on credit, and the birth of blockchain credit will magnify the scale of the cryptocurrency market by 1,000 times. Privacy public chains are indispensable and available but invisible.
This can be seen from the fact that almost every privacy public chain has raised hundreds of millions of dollars in financing.
Currently, I am more optimistic about two projects. One is#ALEO(not yet issued), which uses ZK technology and has a complete infrastructure, including its own development tools. The other is #ROSE, which uses TEE technology and is Professor Song’s project. In fact, the essence of the project is to invest in people.
9. The second largest number of 100x coins belongs to GAMEFI, with a total of 5, accounting for 8.2%. GAME has always been a battleground for traditional WEB2 strategists, with Tencent and NetEase in the front and Mihoyo in the back. This track is the most profitable and has the most traffic. It is also the best educational tool for cultivating non-circle users to enter WEB3. Only when there is a strong consensus among many people and the market value of cryptocurrencies continues to reach new highs, can institutions cash out at a better price. Therefore, institutions are also willing to invest, and it is naturally a hot spot among hot spots.
In the game track, there are super applications, such as #AXS, #GMT, and public game chains, such as #IMX, #RON. There are also those who focus on the entire game ecosystem, such as #GALA, #MAGIC. There are many paths to choose from. This track is likely to be the field with the most 100x coins in the next cycle. Here are a few game varieties with a high probability of 100x coins in the next cycle. You can send me a private message.
10. The third largest number of 100-fold coins belongs to cross-chain, IOT (Internet of Things), DEFI, and MEME coins. There are 3 of each, accounting for 4.9% respectively. In terms of these directions, the Internet of Things is likely to have nothing to do in the next cycle. Cross-chain is a rigid demand, and one or two kings will definitely be born. MEME depends on fate, and there will definitely be one. The method is to do more on-chain analysis, the correlation between addresses, and the ability to capture whales. This can be expanded later, combined with tools
DEFI should also be one of the top three tracks that will produce 100x coins in the next cycle. Among them, I focus on: derivatives in DEFI, algorithmic stablecoins, credit, NFT lending, NFT liquidity, and CRV ecology. These areas are likely to produce 100x coins. Fortunately, these projects have already appeared and are growing, which is worth looking forward to.
11. Due to space constraints, more detailed data analysis and charts are not given here. If you like this article, please like and forward it. Thank you.
At the same time, I would like to thank our team, online crypto partners and community for discussing together.