Cryptocurrency News Interpretation

Last week, BTC price action decoupled from the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones.

This week, BTC rose to $27,700, a new high since June 2022, driven by bank risks and the Fed's suspension of rate hikes. Gold prices rose to $1,987, a new high since April 2022, and the largest weekly gain in three years. Safe-haven funds are flowing into the market. This is confirmed by the fact that U has maintained a premium of $1.01 to $1.03 during the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which means that people regard U as a safe haven during bank risks.

Bitcoin NFT protocol Ordinals, the cumulative number of inscription NFT castings exceeded 500,000, reaching 500,265. Cryptocurrency exchange CB said: It is negotiating with customers to develop new overseas (trading) platforms. According to the media, perpetual swap contracts will be among these plans, and derivatives provide traders with a more capital-efficient way to bet on the underlying cryptocurrency market.

CB Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal: XRP may be relisted on CB, but some legal steps are required, which ultimately depends on the judge's decision and CB's evaluation of the court's decision.

LSDx Finance, the LSD ultra-liquidity protocol, has added more than 55,000 ETH in the past 48 hours, currently reaching 61,954.507 ETH.

Blockstream CEO Adam Back: BTC is the antimatter of fractional reserve banking. If too many people withdraw money to buy BTC, the bank will run out of reserves and go bankrupt. No bank can survive a 10% rapid withdrawal.

The rate hike cycle has not yet ended, and the Monkey Market will have many relatively large "short-term" opportunities. Every pause/stop/rate cut will stimulate capital inflows into the stock market, and conversely, every hawkish statement by the Fed will stimulate capital outflows from the stock market. However, the number of hawkish statements left is obviously limited, and may even end soon.

From March 2022 to March 2023, the Fed may reach a turning point when it is one year after raising interest rates. With inflation falling as expected and bank risks emerging frequently, it is unknown whether the Fed will raise interest rates next week. April is a window period with no interest rate hikes, and March or May may be the last month for interest rate hikes.

Cryptocurrency Trading Tips

Mental training

The three main psychological emotions commonly seen in trading are greed, entanglement and fear. Investors need a strong trading psychology system to control and even utilize the above three emotions at different stages.

1. Reasonable psychological expectations

Before trading, you need to have an overall expectation of the future, including market expectations and psychological expectations of the target. Market expectations refer to a clear goal for the market's position and future direction, and target expectations refer to the trading opportunities and risk status of the target at its current position. Without the above psychological foundation, nothing can be done.

Although we failed to fully grasp the market rhythm and maximize profits, our psychological expectations were reasonable and basically in line with the general direction of the market, thus avoiding greed, entanglement and fear, staying away from unexpected risks, and achieving the expected returns.

2. Open-minded trading attitude

Real trading is the core test of trading psychology. The whole trading process should be: calmly build positions, patiently wait, rationally analyze and decisively operate. In trading, when encountering problems, you must first control your mentality and emotions, but many traders do not do so. Because of impatience, worry, greed, and fear, their trading plans are often "deformed", and ultimately a lot of time and energy are wasted, but the effect is not good.

To summarize the trading process, most traders often have the following psychological problems:

First, there is an overly speculative mentality. Investment is a process of wealth appreciation, but many people regard it as a shortcut to getting rich, thus turning investment into gambling.

The second is to give up familiar products, blindly follow the trend and compare with others, and fail to stick to trading principles.

Third, the trading plan is often changed. If the underlying asset fluctuates slightly, adjustments are made from time to time, which results in a bad mentality.

Fourth, too much attention is paid to profits and losses while ignoring the transaction itself. Only by respecting the trend of the target and formulating corresponding countermeasures can the transaction be done better. Otherwise, due to impatience or pressure, you will be unable to withstand the fluctuations and rush out, thus missing out on opportunities or failing to decisively stop losses.

Fifth, they cannot think independently and are too much of a herdsman. Truth is often in the hands of a few people, so we must think and judge independently.

Sixth, they cannot follow the trend. Some traders rigidly use the investment logic of "others are fearful, I am greedy", deliberately bearish when the market rises sharply and bullish when the market falls sharply. But generally speaking, no matter whether it rises sharply or falls sharply, they will not be able to keep their profits in the end, and they will fall into the vortex of thinking they set and cannot extricate themselves.

Seventh, you can't stand loneliness and are easily tempted by new things. In a trending market, most targets have their own expectations and rhythms. As long as the trend remains unchanged and the technical aspects support it, try not to switch targets frequently.

Eighth, one-sided pursuit of certainty and perfection. Trading itself is full of various possibilities. Most people can only try to increase certainty as much as possible. Excessive pursuit of perfection will not be worth the loss. Trading itself is a process of continuous practice. Excessive pursuit of perfection will lead to psychological frustration, which will directly affect normal judgment and analysis.

Cryptocurrency market analysis

Generally, this kind of market appears in the early stage of the rise. Bitcoin rises first to attract funds to enter the market, and then funds flow back to Ethereum, and the copycat rises. You must have enough patience and determination.

The 30-minute trend of Bitcoin shows that the rising structure since the low point is a three-wave structure. Currently, it is in the third rising stage, and how to judge the end of the third wave is the most important.

If the price is above 26550, it means the rise is not over yet, and if it falls back above 26950, it is considered strong.

It is too hasty to blindly guess the top in the trend. If the daily upward trend a is greater than b, which is approximately equal to 38%, then b is 29500~33560.

This can also be the upside target for the third thirty-minute period.

In terms of operations, continue to follow the trend and maintain a Boduo approach until the rise is confirmed to be over.