According to Jinshi, analyst Ven Ram said that the yen may not get a break yet as the Bank of Japan remains reluctant to raise interest rates. Since the end of March, the USD/JPY has strengthened by more than 5%, but unlike history, this quarter's performance is not supported by the US dollar alone. Japan's real interest rates are getting lower and lower, while US interest rates remain high, which has always been the core reason for the yen's sluggishness. The changes in the yen reflect the current situation of the Japanese economy: the policy interest rate is increasingly dwarfed by inflation, and the Bank of Japan is the key to resolving this deadlock, but central bank officials have not shown any signs of rushing to beat back inflation.
The lack of urgency means that real interest rates in Japan will not improve anytime soon, which makes the yen even more vulnerable. On the dollar side, real interest rates remain high, with little sign that the last mile in the fight against inflation is about to be completed anytime soon. These two dynamics mean that the yen will remain on the defensive through the end of this quarter and beyond.