November 16 Market-wide scan
1. Key notes:
① International macro:
Following the sharp decline in U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar the night before, global risk markets basically rose sharply yesterday. In comparison, the performance of A shares is still poor. As H-shares opened higher and moved higher, constantly setting new intraday highs, the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite 50 indexes, which are the core of the A-share upward trend, did not rise significantly after opening higher. Instead, they fell back in the afternoon and rose slightly in late trading.
② Mosaic:
It is still in the early days of Niu, and the trend of the big pie has always been there. It is not without probability that this wave will directly reach 4W or 4.5W. Covered call strategy partners can find the right point. The cumulative maximum position of OI is 4W, so from the perspective of probability, 4W will be the first. The probability of getting an acupuncture is not low, so you can pay appropriate attention to this chip-intensive area (as shown in Figure 2)
③ US stocks:
No new information
⑤ A shares:
I’ve said it a lot recently, so I won’t say it anymore. Yesterday I posted a message about Planet, which needs to be bigger. What are you most afraid of when investing? Make small profits and lose big, and if you lose, switch to value investing (start holding for the long term).
Add another piece of information: the price of gold (the price difference between internal and external prices) implies the actual exchange rate of the RMB; the appreciation of the exchange rate is good for the rebound of the A-share stock index. (Figure 1)
Judging from yesterday's results, the external warmth has accelerated the improvement in macroeconomic expectations, but the power has not yet exploded to the point that the whole market has turned its attention to the macroeconomic situation. The signal for subsequent acceleration should be that indexes such as the CSI 300 and SSE 50, with heavy holdings of institutions, continue to lead, while the directional index of micro-cap stocks continues to be relatively weak. We will wait and see.
Options market: Yesterday, option implied volatility declined as the index rose. Overall, the positive correlation between the implied volatility distance and the underlying price will continue to ferment. Combined with the IV structure of near low and far high, most of the derivatives market Participants are not very optimistic about acceleration and still expect stable fluctuations. However, if you take a closer look at the Skew curve of IV, careful investors can find that the right side of the curve is rising compared with the previous day. This means that the out-of-value subscription of far-month options had a certain amount of buyer power yesterday, which caused the pricing to rise, and some people may accelerate the game. Then there is the call and put position ratio of options related to the CSI 300/Shenzhen 100/Shanghai 50 index. It fell slightly yesterday from the previous day and closed at 1.55 (see Figure 3)
2. Specific operations:
① US stocks
No operation, the US stock market has become a policy market, let it continue to rise; wait for the TLT price to be suitable before buying some spot, the IV of the ATM is still around 20, selling put is okay
②A shares
There was no operation yesterday. I observed the critical point of implied volatility and prepared to use the bullish difference to do Long Gamma.
③ Mosaic
I made a two-loaf and cow-difference strategy and saw the previous planet. Some guys noticed that I didn’t update the real offer, so I’d better continue doing the [Option Guaranteed Winning Plan] because I don’t have much to say every day, so I’m going to say it 1-2 times in a week. Now that IV is on the rise, the returns from the Detla neutral strategy are also good.
Special Note:
Several markets are very hot, seize the opportunity to dig deep into the target, don't be a spectator, hands-on ability is the key
Finally, interested friends are welcome to join sober to chat about the option planet, and share some more timely information in the small circle.
