According to BlockBeats, on October 18, Cointelegraph reported that with less than three weeks to go before the US presidential election, the behavior of Polymarket’s top bettors has raised concerns about the accuracy and potential manipulation of decentralized prediction markets. Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 US presidential election continue to rise, largely influenced by Polymarket user “Fredi9999”, a major bettor who holds more than $20 million worth of bets in support of Trump.
On October 16, the Polymarket odds of Trump winning the presidential election rose to an all-time high of 60.2%. What happened on Polymarket is now affecting the real world, and many people believe what they see on the platform. "Fredi9999" has a significant impact on the price of Trump's prediction market, and trading patterns show that "Fredi9999" can control the top four Trump whales on Polymarket. "These accounts all received large deposits from Kraken and immediately began betting on Trump. A user received a large deposit and invested it in Trump winning the popular vote, increasing his approval rating from 26% to 39% in a few hours."
However, Elon Musk believes that decentralized prediction markets may be more accurate than traditional polls in predicting election results. Musk made the remarks after recently increasing his support for Trump. In traditional betting markets, Trump's potential win rate is also rising. According to data compiled by RealClearPolling, based on the overall betting odds aggregated from top websites, Trump's odds of winning are 58.1%, while Harris's odds of winning are currently 40.4%.