U.S. CPI in September exceeded expectations, Bitcoin fell along with U.S. stocks
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released in the United States in September showed that the higher than expected price caused US stocks to close down, and Bitcoin also fell accordingly.
According to (CoinDesk), the annual growth rate of U.S. CPI in September was 2.4%. Although it was lower than the 2.5% in August, it was higher than the expected 2.3%, triggering market concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay further interest rate cuts. This will in turn affect the performance of risk assets such as U.S. stocks and Bitcoin.
Bitcoin prices fell further following the CPI data. As of the time of writing this morning (11th), Bitcoin once fell below US$59,000, and is currently recovering from its decline, quoting at US$60,446.
In addition to inflation data, changes in the job market have also caught investors' attention.
(CoinDesk) pointed out that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose to 258,000 last week, a 14-month high. Although part of the reason may be related to the Boeing strike, it still triggered market concerns about the health of the U.S. economy.
Bitcoin’s market outlook is bad? The indicator turns bearish
(Cointelegraph) senior analyst Marcel Pechman pointed out early this morning that a key indicator of the Bitcoin futures market has seen worrying changes.
He said that under normal market conditions, Bitcoin futures contango (i.e., the difference between the monthly contract and the spot exchange price) should fall within an annualized premium (basis) of 5%-10% to compensate for the longer settlement period.
However, on October 10, Bitcoin futures contango fell below the neutral benchmark of 5% for the first time in two months. It’s worth noting that the last time the indicator turned bearish was on August 5, and over the next three days, Bitcoin plummeted 24.6%, falling back to a low of $49,268.
Source: Laevitas.ch Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium rate
Pageman believes that changes in Bitcoin futures indicators reflect reduced demand for buy and sell orders (long) and may indicate increased selling pressure in the short term.
As of this morning, the Cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index was at 32, which is at the fear level, which typically indicates low trading activity and less liquidity in the market.
Bitcoin option delta changes offer glimmer of hope
Although the futures market is showing some negative signals, Pageman noted that Bitcoin options data provides some balancing perspective.
According to Pageman’s analysis, the 25% delta value for Bitcoin options remains close to zero. This means that large traders and market makers have not changed their views on short-term risk rewards, and the reason for the sharp decline in the Bitcoin futures premium rate may be due to the unexpected liquidation of leveraged long positions by a few large entities. The decline in the premium rate may It's temporary.
Source: Laevitas.ch Bitcoin 30-day option 25% Delta deviation value change
Pageman concluded: “Derivatives traders are not yet betting that Bitcoin prices are about to fall significantly.” This view provides a glimmer of hope for the market, suggesting that the current decline may not turn into a sustained bear trend.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
