Yesterday's decline in the BTC rate fulfilled the condition for breaking the ascending structure of candles on the daily chart.
The growing potential of the bears, which was written about, made itself felt. The rate was dragged down first by the publication of the minutes of the September meeting of the US Federal Reserve, and then by the topic of a major operation by the US Department of Justice and the FBI on crypto market makers.
- The price went below the EMA 50 of the daily TF (which is very important) and the volume level of $61,231.
- The candlestick structure on the daily chart broke the rebound potential on the four-hour TF.
- Sellers reacted to the global uptrend since October 2023.
- There is a breakdown of local trend support since September 6 (by the way,#BTChas it, but not all altcoins, many are still holding on).
All this hints that the decline has just begun. The minimum target is the same and it is very close - this is the volume level of $59,335 and the Fibonacci level of 0.5 of the September growth (rate of $59,524). On the way to them is the EMA 200 of the daily TF, currently in the area of the psychological level of $60,000.
The descending candle structure on the daily TF, if it continues and works out without a significant dump, will remain until October 15-17. Let us remind you that according to the Price Volatility Index #BTC, if the forecast works out (and for now it works out), we are waiting for a decline until October 14-18. Accordingly, until these days we can expect a gradual "slide" of the price to the specified levels, in the hunt for liquidity for the low of October 3 ($ 59,828). If the downward trend continues - for liquidity for the low of September 16 ($ 57,493).
Locally, in the current decline, some growth can be expected closer to the evening of today. But if there is no consolidation above the volume level of $61,231 on the four-hour TF, this is almost guaranteed to be just a rebound before further decline. But if the price starts to consolidate higher, the scenario can be revised.
According to P73 Trend & Target Dynamics, the price has entered a stable downtrend on the two-hour TF, but the base targets are still above the psychological $60,000. But the price has also entered a downtrend on the four-hour TF, and the extreme base target there is $59,555.
It may seem that on this TF the signal for a stable downtrend was given too late. BUT, firstly, that is why it is “stable”, this is the price for minimizing false signals. And secondly, you can look at the screenshot of the previous downtrend, where the price went noticeably below the basic targets. At the peak from the signal, the decline was -7.3%.
On the daily chart, the indicator shows an uptrend as before. But you can see the hourly TFs yourself. Including, by the way, the 12-hour one.
