Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
Yesterday, Scroll announced the launch of Binance Launchpool. Users who "roll hair" will receive 7% of the tokens airdropped, Binance Launchpool will allocate 5.5% of the tokens, and will take a snapshot on October 19, which means that users still have the opportunity to participate in the hair.
What is the value of Scroll points? What is the value of the remaining ten days of Scrolling? Odaily will answer this question by deducing the points data in this article.
Total Points and Estimated Value
The Scroll mainnet was launched on October 17, 2023. According to Odaily statistics, there are 2.495 million addresses that have made one or more transactions since the launch of the mainnet.
(Odaily Note: Although you can get Scroll points Marks just by cross-chain, depositing into Aave or interacting with other official protocols will get multiple points without risk, so it is assumed here that all rational addresses will make a transaction. The points addresses not included in the statistics are those that did not make any transactions after receiving funds on the chain. Such operations have a high risk of Sybil, and it is assumed that there will be no such operations under rational circumstances. For detailed interaction rules, please see (The era of high-quality account interaction has arrived, what is the optimal solution to the Scroll question?))
Additionally, data from LayerHub shows there are 3,076,903 addresses, and scrollstat shows there are 2,552,610 addresses.
Odaily extracted 10,000 wallets that had conducted transactions, aiming to use some wallets to estimate the overall points. The points distribution of these 10,000 wallets is shown below:
It can be seen that small accounts with scores below 100 are the largest, accounting for nearly 50%. Overall, users with scores below 5000 are the main group, and the proportion of higher scores decreases sharply.
The average score of these 10,000 addresses is 2,787 points, so the total score of the entire network is estimated to be 2,787 × 2.495 million = 695 million points.
In yesterday's article (Listed on Binance Launchpool, what is the reasonable price of the last stick of public chain Scroll?), we estimated that the price of a single coin is 1.15 USDT, and a total of 70 million SCRs are allocated to Scroll users. The unit price of points is 1.15 × 70000000 ÷ 6.95 ÷ 10 ^ 8 = 0.1158 USD/point.
The top three addresses counted here are 0xaf8ae6955d07776ab690e565ba6fbc79b8de3a5d, 0xe93685f3bba03016f02bd1828badd6195988d950, and 0xb8ff877ed78ba520ece21b1de7843a8a57ca47cb. Readers can view their interactions through LayerHub. scrollstat also gives the details of the top 100 addresses.
Is it still too late to roll up now?
Scroll officials have not given the conversion relationship between the deposit amount and the Scroll Mark. According to community backtesting, 0.1 ETH deposited for one month can earn about 30-50 points. Here we calculate based on 0.1 ETH earning 1 point per day.
Assuming that the government has set a minimum living allowance lower limit, here it is assumed that users in the 50% percentile are eligible for the minimum living allowance, then they need to obtain 100 points. Based on 10 days of deposits, they need to deposit 100 ÷ 10 ÷ 0.1 = 100 0.1 ETH, which means they need to deposit 10 ETH for a total of 10 days.
Assuming 5000 points are considered a premium account, you will need to deposit 5000 ÷ 10 = 500 ETH, which is worth approximately 1.2 million US dollars.
According to the estimated point value of $0.1158 per point, every 0.1 ETH will receive $0.1158 in tokens per day, which is converted to an annualized rate of 0.1158 ÷ 0.1 ÷ 2420 × 365 = 17.4%. However, since existing users will also dilute their points in the next ten days, the rate of return will actually be slightly reduced, but it will still be higher than the regular ETH rate of return.
