PANews reported on October 7 that according to The Block, JPMorgan analysts pointed out several key factors that may affect the cryptocurrency market in the coming months, including technical, geopolitical and structural events that may drive price fluctuations. In a research report released on Monday, analysts discussed the seasonal "Uptober" trend, the interest rate cuts of the US Federal Reserve System, the approval of Bitcoin ETF options, and the impact of Ethereum's upcoming Pectra upgrade.
A key conclusion of the report is the historically strong October trend, often referred to as "Uptober," with more than 70% of October Bitcoin returns positive. "While past performance does not predict future performance, we believe the popularity of 'Uptober' may have influenced behavior and led to positive Bitcoin performance this October," the analysts wrote. Despite the Fed's recent rate cut, the analysts noted that the broader cryptocurrency market has not seen the expected positive impact; while a rate cut environment generally supports risk assets, the correlation between the total cryptocurrency market capitalization and the federal funds rate remains weak at 0.46; since the Fed's rate cut on September 18, we have not seen a significant increase in cryptocurrency prices in response to rate cuts, and the market may be waiting for more sustained stability before making a decisive shift. In addition, the analysts acknowledged that it is difficult to accurately predict how cryptocurrencies will respond to interest rate cycles due to the lack of historical data. Another potential catalyst is the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETF options trading. Analysts expect this could deepen market liquidity and attract new participants. This development could start a positive feedback loop, enhancing market structure and making digital assets more accessible to institutional investors. The upcoming Ethereum upgrade, known as "Pectra," is also seen as a major development. Analysts said: "While Pectra is expected to have a transformative impact on Ethereum's functionality, we believe this upgrade is more structural than a direct price catalyst. The long-term impact of Pectra will be to increase Ethereum's operational efficiency and adoption, but it is unlikely to trigger a short-term surge in Ether prices."
The analysts concluded that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts to drive continued growth. “We continue to see the crypto ecosystem becoming increasingly sensitive to macro factors, so we are waiting for the next major catalyst to drive ecosystem development and increased retail participation for long-term growth,” they said.
