The Black Swan has officially arrived! Four major news items tonight are coming (10.5)!
1. The holiday black swan has officially arrived! The EU imposes tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, triggering a trade war or reciprocal sanctions
The European Union voted to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, building a tariff barrier for five years. With the increasing global attention to environmental issues, electric vehicles are gradually becoming an important trend in future transportation. However, the rise of this emerging market is also accompanied by international trade tensions and competition.
I remember that it was the EU that first proposed the initiative to gradually convert fuel vehicles into electric vehicles for low-carbon and environmental protection. When Chinese companies completed the design, processing and manufacturing of electric vehicles, the EU itself changed its face and refused to recognize it. Can't Chinese car companies help the EU achieve its electrification goals? Why doesn't the EU mention low-carbon and environmental protection now? It can be seen that it was not really for low-carbon and environmental protection at the beginning, but used this goal as a gimmick, with the original intention of suppressing the industrialization process of developing countries. Unexpectedly, this track let Chinese car companies take the lead, so they simply threw sand and stopped playing. The EU's unilateral imposition of anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles has undoubtedly cast a shadow on China-EU economic relations.

2. The Hong Kong stock market was very strong this holiday. China Merchants Securities soared 120%, CITIC Securities 50%, and the average was 30+%. The real estate market was about the same. It’s embarrassing to talk about your holdings that didn’t have a 30% increase. Today, I opened Douyin and randomly clicked on a live broadcast, Laobai Live, with more than 40,000 people online. Porsche was booming, saying that a wave of momentum would rush to more than 4,000 after the holiday, to give everyone some encouragement and to make the surge. It’s so hot.
Let's use the method of contradiction to prove it. If the market goes to 4000 points in one wave after the holiday, it means 2689.-4000 without stopping, and the market will rise by 50%. The short-term profit chips will be more than 10 trillion. You should know that the number of new investors is always limited, and the new funds are obviously decreasing. You can imagine that when the buying volume gradually decreases and the selling pressure gradually increases, will you continue to rush? If you don't rush, I won't rush. The selling pressure will be even greater, the buying orders will decrease drastically, and the huge amount of profit-taking will flee and the market will be smashed back violently. The latecomers will cry and shout, "Give me back my money, I don't want to play anymore..."
Some people say that many institutions are still missing out. Yes, they are missing out. Institutions will not help you. If you cannot buy on the first day after the holiday, do you want Danbing and Beibei to help you sell at 3,600+? Dacongming said that the 500 billion swap facility has not started yet. At this valuation, are there still major shareholders willing to borrow money to increase their holdings? I personally feel that unless the stock price falls back to 3,000, this thing will most likely not be used.
3. Has the gold bull market died down? The non-agricultural data was released, and gold lost its upward momentum. Is there any market trend?
I am also very concerned about gold. Last week, I was very optimistic that gold would continue to move upward! I believe that the wave of gold is roughly a seven to eight day cycle. At present, gold should have a strong rebound adjustment time on Thursday or Friday this week! But it did not come out, and just barely held on to the cross line.
Of course, this is mainly because last night's non-agricultural data was very much beyond expectations, very good! The original expectation of a 50 basis point interest rate cut this year can be said to be almost gone! Gold is currently under tremendous pressure, and the reason why it still holds the cross line is probably because of Xiao Yi's things! In addition, there will still be some other data released intensively in early October! At present, MacArthur's judgment on international gold is very pessimistic.
However, the domestic gold price is still optimistic! With the rapid depreciation of the RMB, the price gap with the international gold price formed some time ago will most likely be repaired soon next week! I think next week we can indeed find a good point to cash out a part of the position! We still have to "wait for the gold price" to get out of the recent shock period, which is a better position for heavy positions!
4. The volatility of A50 futures during the holiday period is indeed a cause for concern. On October 8, the market may need to digest various information before the holiday. For stock investors, this day may not be suitable for stock trading. Mr. Ren Zeping's suggestion is wise, allowing stock investors to take a break on October 8 and continue to pay attention to the stock market on October 9.
The A-share market during the holidays is always affected by many factors, and the market trend is very worrying. When talking about the market conditions on October 8, Mr. Ren pointed out that the market may be more turbulent on this day, and suggested that investors should stay put on this day. I completely agree with this, and we need to pay close attention to the changes in market sentiment.
We must realize that during the holidays, people's attention is focused on the holidays, and market volatility naturally intensifies. On the first day after the holiday, when everyone is still in the afterglow of the holiday, the market risk is relatively high. Therefore, it is not wise to blindly enter the market at this time. It makes sense for Mr. Ren Zeping to take a break on October 8. Investing in the stock market requires the right time, place and people. We don't have to rush into the market on the first day. We need to wait patiently for the market to stabilize before making a decision. $BTC