Why am I long in the long term?

1- Long-term + Delta & tail risk prevention strategy

As for option strategies, friends who are familiar with me know that my overall position is +Delta, which means how big the pie is. But in fact, if you look at my overall investment portfolio, in fact, I have always overstocked the 2W pie. , in order to prevent tail risks.

2- First principles

The long-term investment framework of index long matching option tools that I currently adhere to has two key logics:

①The price of the pie will rise in the long term, and the valuation will recover to the mean;

② Price and volatility will inevitably fluctuate, and volatility will return to the mean.

Under the tenet of long-termism, these two logics are the conclusions of the deductive method. As long as the position allocation is based on the perspective of experiencing a complete bull-bear cycle, the result of investment must be a win. Although at the end of every bear market, some people will question common sense, these two key logics are still valid so far. (For example, many KOLs have begun to question it now, shouting slogans like two cakes and dozens of U)

3- Things to note about long-term bulls in the pie

Generally speaking, the general rhythm of more in low areas and less in high areas will definitely be maintained. At the same time, it assists short-term event-driven logic to study and judge the market conditions of index or volatility and subjectively optimize the pace of small optimization. For example, the number of long-term games increases during periods when policy expectations are strong, and the number of long-term games decreases during periods when market conditions are materialized in stages, and so on. All short-term research and judgment adopt the attitude of "don't be overjoyed when it's right, don't be worried when it's wrong", because it is only an optimization aid.

4- Cycle trading for option volatility

There are three points worth noting.

①The mean recovery rhythm of volatility will be different from the overall market situation

② There is a longer-term aggregation effect in the low wave area

③The high wave area is often a short-term pulse pattern.

5- Why antifragile positions?

Because long positions with antifragility and long positions without antifragility have completely different responses to the possible final drop. The former will be happy because they have anti-fragile profits and will have the last pile of chips; the latter can only wait and see, and those with high leverage will even fall before dawn.

Recently, this kind of thinking will be updated for a long time. If you like it, please like and forward it to support it.