Binance Square
LIVE
LIVE
薛定谔的猫叔
--12.1k views
See original
The non-agricultural data greatly exceeded the previous data. Judging from the data alone, the U.S. economy is not declining but is strengthening. Previously, due to panic, the U.S. economy held a large amount of U.S. dollar safe-haven funds. Now it is selling in large quantities, which has relaxed the tension, although it is now greatly aggravated. There is an expectation of an interest rate hike at the end of the year, but everyone has been speculating on the interest rate hike for a long time, and the market has basically accepted this result. Now that the U.S. economy has improved, U.S. dollar funds will flow back, and all funds will enter the investment market. This is a very necessary result. . Those who are overly interested should not be overly FOMO. If the location is good, you can try it. If you don’t go in, be cautious. Again, today was stimulated by the news. The weekend is coming, and if the trading situation still rebounds so strongly next Monday, you can enter the market again. In the so-called early stage of the bull market, even if it starts in the early stage, it is impossible to pull down 100,000 US dollars overnight. There are a lot of opportunities in the middle, so it is not too much to wait a few more days. #BTC $BTC

The non-agricultural data greatly exceeded the previous data. Judging from the data alone, the U.S. economy is not declining but is strengthening. Previously, due to panic, the U.S. economy held a large amount of U.S. dollar safe-haven funds. Now it is selling in large quantities, which has relaxed the tension, although it is now greatly aggravated. There is an expectation of an interest rate hike at the end of the year, but everyone has been speculating on the interest rate hike for a long time, and the market has basically accepted this result. Now that the U.S. economy has improved, U.S. dollar funds will flow back, and all funds will enter the investment market. This is a very necessary result. . Those who are overly interested should not be overly FOMO. If the location is good, you can try it. If you don’t go in, be cautious. Again, today was stimulated by the news. The weekend is coming, and if the trading situation still rebounds so strongly next Monday, you can enter the market again. In the so-called early stage of the bull market, even if it starts in the early stage, it is impossible to pull down 100,000 US dollars overnight. There are a lot of opportunities in the middle, so it is not too much to wait a few more days.

#BTC $BTC

Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. See T&Cs.
0
Replies 12
Explore Content For You
Sign up now for a chance to earn 100 USDT in rewards!
or
Sign up as an entity
or
Log In
Relevant Creator

Explore More From Creator

涨了看涨,跌了看跌,有趣的加密市场,有趣的人。 最早涨了未必看涨,跌了未必看跌这个理论由倪老师提出,个人也觉得总结的很简练,个人就一直沿用这句话。 在投资领域,短期价格出现上涨或者下跌,其实不能完全用来判断大趋势的方向是否改变,往往在上涨或者下跌中都伴随着逆向走势,而短期的逆向走势其实是可以视为是反弹或者回调。但是有趣的是,有很多人往往涨了或者跌了,就找各种利用来延续自己的观点,这样可能就不够客观。 熟悉我的人都知道,整个4月我大部分在充值信仰,但是随着观察数据的变化,我明白大市场环境如此,市场缺乏新的热点叙事,那么短期趋势必然就要改变一下。所以当我发现市场内的资金持续,连续性流出,这就代表部分交易者的交易信心消失。 凌晨阶段因为美联储鲍威尔的讲话,导致价格短期尝试突破60,000,然后再次回落,很多人认为回调结束,但是结合大环境情绪,结合资金的动态,在看美股的表现,风险市场当前真的不太乐观,所以短期的止跌反弹突破,可能有点过于乐观了。 对于当前的行情,在快速下跌之下,如果短期价格反弹无法有效突破站稳60,000以及63,500两个位置的话,其实依旧是不能看涨,可以视为短期超跌反弹。 而且这个时候,情绪上不宜过于悲观,当然也不要过分FOMO乐观,行情回调也需要磨一下性子的。 #大盘走势
--
宏观经济与消息面: 今晚的主题,不用多说就是美联储货币决议之后的鲍威尔讲话,利率决议基本不用考虑太大的变动,维持利率不变依旧是主题。而之后的讲话,目前风险市场预期是鹰派讲话,并且美股已经做好了提前的防御准备。 那么,一旦鲍威尔符合市场预期,鹰派讲话,继续打压市场乐观降息的情绪,那么美联储未来降息的预期再次被下降,市场在资金流动性不足的前提下情绪再次被打压,虽然不会造成短期快速的下跌,但是整体震荡下跌或者阴跌的情况会被延续。当然,美股科技股在发力,一旦鹰派讲话结束,美股可能会迎来收盘前的一波反弹,甚至收涨休盘。而加密市场情绪会再次被打压。 反之,如果鲍威尔讲话不算鹰派,那么对于当前市场预期基本是属于利好状态,美股反弹会比较明显,加密市场会不会跟随反弹,反弹力度多强,目前未知。起码从数据来看,加密市场的资金在外流,一旦美股反弹上涨,不求比特币反弹多高,只要资金能出现回流也是好事。 而对于美联储降息预期,以及鲍威尔讲话,简单总结预测一下,维持利率不变,因为通胀的压力,将会继续维持高利率,但是一旦关键数据出现较大衰退,是考虑温和降息的。都是屁话。 关键问题,美国目前只要不会遇到极端危险的经济或者金融危机,基本就要在高压状态下继续维持美元以及美债的强势,这是美国目前仅有的强力筹码,一旦涉及到降息,美元美债地位下降,美国将会面临大量资产外流,美元信心将会大面积走衰,同时美国自身的经济问题会无限放大。 同时,如果不出意外,结合明天的就业数据,美联储要对外展现美国经济的良性状态,也就是未来“软着陆”的可能性。 不等鲍威尔BB了,下课睡觉。 #大盘走势
--
用数据说话: 对比周二整体的数据来看,目前加密市场整体的节奏依旧相同,增量下跌。 不过随着市场市值集体性下跌,因为山寨之前下跌幅度较大,反而跌破60,000之后山寨已经适应了下跌趋势,下跌幅度较小。单日来看,比特币的下跌幅度较大,市场占比直接丢失0,8%,这个占比分别被以太坊,众山寨与稳定币市值瓜分,其中山寨吃掉的市场占比最多,明显在本次跌破60,000之后很多山寨慢慢适应了不跟跌的情况。 而交易量方面,整体依旧是放量下跌,放量下跌市场空头情绪在逐渐被释放,同时在空头情绪释放中也掺杂着不少抄底买入的力量。比特币在支撑位置激活买量,同时也带动了以太坊以及山寨的买量激活,但是买量是否可以挽救下跌趋势,就要看多头情绪的数量以及持续性了。目前市场情绪是不具备。 资金方面,场内资金留存减少7亿,净流出资金1.7亿资金,也就是说除了其他稳定币的流出之外,今天场内资金最起码有5亿左右是直接参与了交易,随着下跌,抄底资金在活跃,主流稳定币的交易量明显增加。 而今天的资金净流出包含了亚洲市场,在持续了一周多时间资金不稳定之后,本周亚洲资金也出现了净流出的痕迹,同时美国资金也在持续第二周的净流出。通过观察,我们从上周就发现,美国资金除了在周末阶段出现回流,基本都是单日净流出的状态,而随着美国资金的净流出,带动市场情绪的悲观发酵,亚洲资金也在流出。 一旦亚洲与美国资金同时净流出,那么基本上就结束了市场持续了半年之久的资金净流入状态,而直接开启了资金净流出,一旦净流出持续发展,那么基本代表目前亚洲与美国交易者的情绪以及交易的意愿大大降低,不利于价格企稳或者反弹。 #大盘走势
--

Trending Articles

View More
Sitemap
Cookie Preferences
Platform T&Cs